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Tim Dawson

Publications and source records attributed to Tim Dawson.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

Evaluating fault rupture hazard for strike-slip earthquakes

We present fault displacement data, regressions, and a methodology to calculate in both a probabilistic and deterministic framework the fault rupture hazard for strike-slip faults. To assess this hazard we consider: (1) the size of the earthquake and probability that it will rupture to the surface, (2) the rate of all potential earthquakes on the fault (3) the distance of the site along and from the mapped fault, (4) the complexity of the fault and quality of the fault mapping, (5) the size of the structure that will be placed at the site, and (6) the potential and size of displacements along or near the fault. Probabilistic fault rupture hazard analysis should be an important consideration in design of structures or lifelines that are located within about 50m of well-mapped active faults.

Conference Paper↗

Neotectonics and paleoseismology of the Limón and pedro miguel faults in Panamá: earthquake hazard to the Panamá canal

We present new geologic, tectonic geomorphic, and geochronologic data on the slip rate, timing, and size of past surface ruptures for the right-lateral Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults in central Panam??. These faults are part of a system of conjugate faults that accommodate the internal deformation of Panam?? resulting from the ongoing collision of Central and South America. There have been at least three surface ruptures on the Lim??n fault in the past 950-1400 years, with the most recent during the past 365 years. Displacement in this young event is at least 1.2 m (based on trenching) and may be 1.6-2 m (based on small channel offsets). Awell-preserved 4.2 m offset suggests that the penultimate event also sustained significant displacement. The Holocene slip rate has averaged about 6 mm=yr, based on a 30-m offset terrace riser incised into a 5-ka abandoned channel. The Pedro Miguel fault has sustained three surface ruptures in the past 1600 years, the most recent being the 2 May 1621 earthquake that partially destroyed Panam?? Viejo. At least 2.1 m of slip occurred in this event near the Canal, with geomorphic offsets suggesting 2.5-3 m. The historic Camino de Cruces is offset 2.8 m, indicating multimeter displacement over at least 20 km of fault length. Channel offsets of 100-400 m, together with a climate-induced incision model, suggest a Late Quaternary slip rate of about 5 mm=yr, which is consistent with the paleoseismic results. Comparison of the timing of surface ruptures between the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults suggests that large earthquakes may rupture both faults with 2-3 m of displacement for over 40 km, such as is likely in earthquakes in the M 7 range. Altogether, our observations indicate that the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults represent a significant seismic hazard to central Panam?? and, specifically, to the Canal and Panam?? City.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Palaeoseismology of the Vilariça segment of the Manteigas-Bragança fault in northeastern Portugal

The Manteigas-Bragança fault is a major, 250-km-long, NNE-striking, sinistral strike-slip structure in northern Portugal. This fault has no historical seismicity for large earthquakes, although it may have generated moderate (M5+) earthquakes in 1751 and 1858. Evidence of continued left horizontal displacement is shown by the presence of Cenozoic pull-apart basins as well as late Quaternary stream deflections. To investigate its recent slip history, a number of trenches were excavated at three sites along the Vilariça segment, north and south of the Douro River. At one site at Vale Meão winery, the occurrence of at least two and probably three events in the past 14.5 ka was determined, suggesting an average return period of about 5–7 ka. All three events appear to have occurred as a cluster in the interval between 14.5 and 11 ka, or shortly thereafter, suggesting a return period of less than 2 ka between events within the cluster. In the same area, a small offset rill suggests 2–2.5 m of slip in the most recent event and about 6.1 m after incision below a c . 16 ka alluvial fill event along the Douro River. At another site along the Vilariça River alluvial plain, NE of the Vale Meão site, several trenches were excavated in late Pleistocene and Holocene alluvium, and exposed the fault displacing channel deposits dated to between 18 and 23 ka. In a succession of closely spaced parallel cuts and trenches, the channel riser was traced into and across the fault to resolve c . 6.5 m of displacement after 18 ka and c . 9 m of slip after c . 23 ka. These observations yield a slip rate of 0.3–0.5 mm/a, which is consistent with earlier estimates. Combining the information on timing at Vale Meão winery and displacement at Vilariça argues for earthquakes in the M7+ range, with coseismic displacements of 2–3 m. This demonstrates that there are potential seismic sources in Portugal that are not associated with the 1755 Lisbon earthquake or the Tagus Valley, and, although rare, large events on the Vilariça fault could be quite destructive for the region. This work provides an analogue for the study of active faulting in intracontinental settings and supports the view that earthquakes within intracontinental settings tend to cluster in time. In addition, this study highlights the usefulness and application of multiple field, remote sensing and geochronological techniques for seismic hazard mitigation.

Manteigas - Braganca fault↗

Paleoseismic evidence of characteristic slip on the Western segment of the North Anatolian fault, Turkey

We have conducted a paleoseismic investigation of serial fault rupture at one site along the 110-km rupture of the North Anatolian fault that produced the M w 7.4 earthquake of 17 August 1999. The benefit of using a recent rupture to compare serial ruptures lies in the fact that the location, magnitude, and slip vector of the most recent event are all very well documented. We wished to determine whether or not the previous few ruptures of the fault were similar to the recent one. We chose a site at a step-over between two major strike-slip traces, where the principal fault is a normal fault. Our two excavations across the 1999 rupture reveal fluvial sands and gravels with two colluvial wedges related to previous earthquakes. Each wedge is about 0.8 m thick. Considering the processes of collapse and subsequent diffusion that are responsible for the formation of a colluvial wedge, we suggest that the two paleoscarps were similar in height to the 1999 scarp. This similarity supports the concept of characteristic slip, at least for this location along the fault. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates of 16 charcoal samples are consistent with the interpretation that these two paleoscarps formed during large historical events in 1509 and 1719. If this is correct, the most recent three ruptures at the site have occurred at 210- and 280-year intervals.

North Anatolian fault↗

Lateral offsets on surveyed cultural features resulting from the 1999 İzmit and Düzce earthquakes, Turkey

Surveys of offset linear cultural features that cross the surface ruptures of the 17 August and 12 November 1999 earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault in Turkey yield slip values as large as or larger than those recorded by near-field measurements in the same areas immediately after the earthquake. Using long, linear alignments of trees, fence lines, walls, and canals, we demonstrate as much as a 2-m increase in observed slip over the initial field measurements. On an average, we observed about 15% of the total lateral slip as off-fault deformation, with values ranging from 0% to 40% of the total slip. Part of this lateral deformation is accommodated by bending or drag in a zone as much as 30 m in width, although usually the zone varies between 5 and 20 m in width. This supports the idea that substantial nonbrittle, off-fault deformation is associated with ruptures in areas of alluvial fill. Alternatively, there may have been substantial afterslip, although none has been recognized on postearthquake repaired structures. Our observations suggest that postearthquake measurements of fault slip, using tape measures on offset geomorphic features, may underestimate the actual amount of slip in that event, where the nonlinearity of the offset feature does not allow recognition of the warping. Surveys of multiple tree lines within groves of poplar trees, planted in straight lines across the fault prior to the earthquake, show surprisingly large lateral variations. In one grove, slip increases by nearly 1.8 m, or 35% of the maximum measured value, over a lateral distance of nearly 100 m. This and other observations along the 1999 ruptures suggest that the lateral variability of slip observed from displaced geomorphic features in many earthquakes of the past may represent a combination of (1) actual differences in slip at the surface and (2) the difficulty in recognizing distributed nonbrittle deformation.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

The surface rupture and slip distribution of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake (M 7.4), North Anatolian fault

The 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake occurred on the northern strand of the North Anatolian fault zone. The earthquake is associated with a 145-km-long surface rupture that extends from southwest of Düzce in the east to west of Hersek delta in the west. Detailed mapping of the surface rupture shows that it consists of five segments separated by releasing step-overs; herein named the Hersek, Karamürsel-Gölcük, İzmit-Sapanca Lake, Sapanca-Akyazi, and Karadere segments from west to east, respectively. The Hersek segment, which cuts the tip of a large delta plain in the western end of the rupture zone, has an orientation of N80°. The N70°-80°E-trending Karamürsel-Gölcük segment extends along the linear southern coasts of the İzmit Gulf between Karamürsel and Gölcük and produced the 470-cm maximum displacement in Gölcük. The northwest-southeast-striking Gölcük normal fault between the Karamürsel-Gölcük and İzmit-Sapanca segments has 2.3-m maximum vertical displacement. The maximum dextral offset along the İzmit-Sapanca Lake segment was measured to be about 3.5 m, and its trend varies between N80°E and east-west. The Sapanca-Akyazi segment trends N75°-85°W and expresses a maximum displacement of 5.2 m. The Karadere segment trends N65°E and produced up to 1.5-m maximum displacement. The Karadere and Sapanca-Akyazi segments form fan-shape or splaying ruptures near their eastern ends where the displacement also diminished.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗