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Tim Dawson

Publications and source records attributed to Tim Dawson.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

Evaluating fault rupture hazard for strike-slip earthquakes

We present fault displacement data, regressions, and a methodology to calculate in both a probabilistic and deterministic framework the fault rupture hazard for strike-slip faults. To assess this hazard we consider: (1) the size of the earthquake and probability that it will rupture to the surface, (2) the rate of all potential earthquakes on the fault (3) the distance of the site along and from the mapped fault, (4) the complexity of the fault and quality of the fault mapping, (5) the size of the structure that will be placed at the site, and (6) the potential and size of displacements along or near the fault. Probabilistic fault rupture hazard analysis should be an important consideration in design of structures or lifelines that are located within about 50m of well-mapped active faults.

Conference Paper

Neotectonics and paleoseismology of the Limón and pedro miguel faults in Panamá: earthquake hazard to the Panamá canal

We present new geologic, tectonic geomorphic, and geochronologic data on the slip rate, timing, and size of past surface ruptures for the right-lateral Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults in central Panam??. These faults are part of a system of conjugate faults that accommodate the internal deformation of Panam?? resulting from the ongoing collision of Central and South America. There have been at least three surface ruptures on the Lim??n fault in the past 950-1400 years, with the most recent during the past 365 years. Displacement in this young event is at least 1.2 m (based on trenching) and may be 1.6-2 m (based on small channel offsets). Awell-preserved 4.2 m offset suggests that the penultimate event also sustained significant displacement. The Holocene slip rate has averaged about 6 mm=yr, based on a 30-m offset terrace riser incised into a 5-ka abandoned channel. The Pedro Miguel fault has sustained three surface ruptures in the past 1600 years, the most recent being the 2 May 1621 earthquake that partially destroyed Panam?? Viejo. At least 2.1 m of slip occurred in this event near the Canal, with geomorphic offsets suggesting 2.5-3 m. The historic Camino de Cruces is offset 2.8 m, indicating multimeter displacement over at least 20 km of fault length. Channel offsets of 100-400 m, together with a climate-induced incision model, suggest a Late Quaternary slip rate of about 5 mm=yr, which is consistent with the paleoseismic results. Comparison of the timing of surface ruptures between the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults suggests that large earthquakes may rupture both faults with 2-3 m of displacement for over 40 km, such as is likely in earthquakes in the M 7 range. Altogether, our observations indicate that the Lim??n and Pedro Miguel faults represent a significant seismic hazard to central Panam?? and, specifically, to the Canal and Panam?? City.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Palaeoseismology of the Vilariça segment of the Manteigas-Bragança fault in northeastern Portugal

The Manteigas-Bragança fault is a major, 250-km-long, NNE-striking, sinistral strike-slip structure in northern Portugal. This fault has no historical seismicity for large earthquakes, although it may have generated moderate (M5+) earthquakes in 1751 and 1858. Evidence of continued left horizontal displacement is shown by the presence of Cenozoic pull-apart basins as well as late Quaternary stream deflections. To investigate its recent slip history, a number of trenches were excavated at three sites along the Vilariça segment, north and south of the Douro River. At one site at Vale Meão winery, the occurrence of at least two and probably three events in the past 14.5 ka was determined, suggesting an average return period of about 5–7 ka. All three events appear to have occurred as a cluster in the interval between 14.5 and 11 ka, or shortly thereafter, suggesting a return period of less than 2 ka between events within the cluster. In the same area, a small offset rill suggests 2–2.5 m of slip in the most recent event and about 6.1 m after incision below a c . 16 ka alluvial fill event along the Douro River. At another site along the Vilariça River alluvial plain, NE of the Vale Meão site, several trenches were excavated in late Pleistocene and Holocene alluvium, and exposed the fault displacing channel deposits dated to between 18 and 23 ka. In a succession of closely spaced parallel cuts and trenches, the channel riser was traced into and across the fault to resolve c . 6.5 m of displacement after 18 ka and c . 9 m of slip after c . 23 ka. These observations yield a slip rate of 0.3–0.5 mm/a, which is consistent with earlier estimates. Combining the information on timing at Vale Meão winery and displacement at Vilariça argues for earthquakes in the M7+ range, with coseismic displacements of 2–3 m. This demonstrates that there are potential seismic sources in Portugal that are not associated with the 1755 Lisbon earthquake or the Tagus Valley, and, although rare, large events on the Vilariça fault could be quite destructive for the region. This work provides an analogue for the study of active faulting in intracontinental settings and supports the view that earthquakes within intracontinental settings tend to cluster in time. In addition, this study highlights the usefulness and application of multiple field, remote sensing and geochronological techniques for seismic hazard mitigation.

Manteigas - Braganca fault

The surface rupture and slip distribution of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake (M 7.4), North Anatolian fault

The 17 August 1999 İzmit earthquake occurred on the northern strand of the North Anatolian fault zone. The earthquake is associated with a 145-km-long surface rupture that extends from southwest of Düzce in the east to west of Hersek delta in the west. Detailed mapping of the surface rupture shows that it consists of five segments separated by releasing step-overs; herein named the Hersek, Karamürsel-Gölcük, İzmit-Sapanca Lake, Sapanca-Akyazi, and Karadere segments from west to east, respectively. The Hersek segment, which cuts the tip of a large delta plain in the western end of the rupture zone, has an orientation of N80°. The N70°-80°E-trending Karamürsel-Gölcük segment extends along the linear southern coasts of the İzmit Gulf between Karamürsel and Gölcük and produced the 470-cm maximum displacement in Gölcük. The northwest-southeast-striking Gölcük normal fault between the Karamürsel-Gölcük and İzmit-Sapanca segments has 2.3-m maximum vertical displacement. The maximum dextral offset along the İzmit-Sapanca Lake segment was measured to be about 3.5 m, and its trend varies between N80°E and east-west. The Sapanca-Akyazi segment trends N75°-85°W and expresses a maximum displacement of 5.2 m. The Karadere segment trends N65°E and produced up to 1.5-m maximum displacement. The Karadere and Sapanca-Akyazi segments form fan-shape or splaying ruptures near their eastern ends where the displacement also diminished.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America