Geology topics

Thomas M. Brocher

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas M. Brocher.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2018

Reported investments in earthquake mitigation top $73 to $80 billion in the San Francisco Bay Area, California, since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

The purpose of this report is to provide a compilation of structural retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure in the San Francisco Bay Area that have either been completed since 1989 or that are in progress as of October 2018. For the purposes of this report, all or parts of nine Bay Area counties were included: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma. Santa Cruz County was not included. The compilation of 700 investments is presented as a table in the appendix. We consider this table as version 1, as we urge that those familiar with additional projects contact the report authors with information to update the table. In total, we have identified \$73 to \$80 billion in investments to retrofit or replace structures to mitigate the impacts of future San Francisco Bay Area earthquakes. These totals represent an average investment of \$2.5 to \$2.8 billion per year in retrofits and replacement of structures since 1989.

California↗

USGS2018

Intensities, aftershock sequences, and the location of the 1936 Milton‐Freewater earthquake near the Oregon–Washington border, U.S.A.

The epicenter of the 16 July 1936 M "> M M 6 Milton‐Freewater earthquake, also known as the State Line earthquake and the largest historical earthquake in northeastern Oregon or southeastern Washington, is uncertain. Various studies place the epicenter of the earthquake, which was widely felt in eastern Washington, northeastern Oregon, and northern Idaho, within 30 km of the intersection of the Hite and Wallula faults. In the absence of reported coseismic surface rupture for the earthquake, we sought to determine which epicentral location is most consistent with the intensity observations and with its aftershock sequence, which lasted for at least 27 months. An epicenter between Umapine and Milton‐Freewater best matches the observations. This location falls within the region that experienced the highest intensities of VII and reported the largest number of aftershocks, compares favorably to the (2018) International Seismological Centre‐Global Earthquake Model (ISC‐GEM) epicenter, and is proximal to sites that experienced ground failure and groundwater effects. Modeling of aftershock rates is consistent with this suggested epicenter and with the estimated 10 km long subsurface rupture of the earthquake. This suggested epicenter lies at, or just west of, the intersection of the Hite and Wallula faults. The elongation of ground failure along the Wallula fault and the aftershock distribution appears more consistent with rupture of the Wallula fault or of a subparallel fault than with rupture of the Hite fault. Rupture on faults to the north or east of the Wallula‐Hite fault intersection is inconsistent with most observations, including the perceived impulsivity of the mainshock.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

The Hayward Fault—Is it due for a repeat of the powerful 1868 earthquake?

On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay area. Although the region was sparsely populated, the quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California’s history. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) studies show that similar Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past and that the fault may be ready to produce another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Such an earthquake could unexpectedly change people’s lives and impact the Bay Area’s infrastructure and economy, but updated building codes and retrofits, as well as planning, community training, and preparedness, will help reduce the effects of a future Hayward Fault earthquake.

California↗

USGS2017

Aftershocks, earthquake effects, and the location of the large 14 December 1872 earthquake near Entiat, central Washington

Reported aftershock durations, earthquake effects, and other observations from the large 14 December 1872 earthquake in central Washington are consistent with an epicenter near Entiat, Washington. Aftershocks were reported for more than 3 months only near Entiat. Modal intensity data described in this article are consistent with an Entiat area epicenter, where the largest modified Mercalli intensities, VIII, were assigned between Lake Chelan and Wenatchee. Although ground failures and water effects were widespread, there is a concentration of these features along the Columbia River and its tributaries in the Entiat area. Assuming linear ray paths, misfits from 23 reports of the directions of horizontal shaking have a local minima at Entiat, assuming the reports are describing surface waves, but the region having comparable misfit is large. Broadband seismograms recorded for comparable ray paths provide insight into the reasons why possible S – P times estimated from felt reports at two locations are several seconds too small to be consistent with an Entiat area epicenter.

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USGS2017

Evaluating spatial and temporal relationships between an earthquake cluster near Entiat, central Washington, and the large December 1872 Entiat earthquake

We investigate spatial and temporal relations between an ongoing and prolific seismicity cluster in central Washington, near Entiat, and the 14 December 1872 Entiat earthquake, the largest historic crustal earthquake in Washington. A fault scarp produced by the 1872 earthquake lies within the Entiat cluster; the locations and areas of both the cluster and the estimated 1872 rupture surface are comparable. Seismic intensities and the 1–2 m of coseismic displacement suggest a magnitude range between 6.5 and 7.0 for the 1872 earthquake. Aftershock forecast models for (1) the first several hours following the 1872 earthquake, (2) the largest felt earthquakes from 1900 to 1974, and (3) the seismicity within the Entiat cluster from 1976 through 2016 are also consistent with this magnitude range. Based on this aftershock modeling, most of the current seismicity in the Entiat cluster could represent aftershocks of the 1872 earthquake. Other earthquakes, especially those with long recurrence intervals, have long‐lived aftershock sequences, including the M w "> M w Mw 7.5 1891 Nobi earthquake in Japan, with aftershocks continuing 100 yrs after the mainshock. Although we do not rule out ongoing tectonic deformation in this region, a long‐lived aftershock sequence can account for these observations.

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USGS2017

Modified mercalli intensities for nine earthquakes in central and western Washington between 1989 and 1999

We determine Modified Mercalli (Seismic) Intensities (MMI) for nine onshore earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and larger that occurred in central and western Washington between 1989 and 1999, on the basis of effects reported in postal questionnaires, the press, and professional collaborators. The earthquakes studied include four earthquakes of M 5 and larger: the M 5.0 Deming earthquake of April 13, 1990, the M 5.0 Point Robinson earthquake of January 29, 1995, the M 5.4 Duvall earthquake of May 3, 1996, and the M 5.8 Satsop earthquake of July 3, 1999. The MMI are assigned using data and procedures that evolved at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its Department of Commerce predecessors and that were used to assign MMI to felt earthquakes occurring in the United States between 1931 and 1986. We refer to the MMI assigned in this report as traditional MMI, because they are based on responses to postal questionnaires and on newspaper reports, and to distinguish them from MMI calculated from data contributed by the public by way of the internet. Maximum traditional MMI documented for the M 5 and larger earthquakes are VII for the 1990 Deming earthquake, V for the 1995 Point Robinson earthquake, VI for the 1996 Duvall earthquake, and VII for the 1999 Satsop earthquake; the five other earthquakes were variously assigned maximum intensities of IV, V, or VI. Starting in 1995, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) published MMI maps for four of the studied earthquakes, based on macroseismic observations submitted by the public by way of the internet. With the availability now of the traditional USGS MMI interpreted for all the sites from which USGS postal questionnaires were returned, the four Washington earthquakes join a rather small group of earthquakes for which both traditional USGS MMI and some type of internet-based MMI have been assigned. The values and distributions of the traditional MMI are broadly similar to the internet-based PNSN intensities; we discuss some differences in detail that reflect differences in data-sampling procedure, differences in the procedure used to assign intensity numbers from macroseismic observations, and differences in how intensities are mapped.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2017

Reducing risk where tectonic plates collide—U.S. Geological Survey subduction zone science plan

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) serves the Nation by providing reliable scientific information and tools to build resilience in communities exposed to subduction zone earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Improving the application of USGS science to successfully reduce risk from these events relies on whole community efforts, with continuing partnerships among scientists and stakeholders, including researchers from universities, other government labs and private industry, land-use planners, engineers, policy-makers, emergency managers and responders, business owners, insurance providers, the media, and the general public. Motivated by recent technological advances and increased awareness of our growing vulnerability to subduction-zone hazards, the USGS is uniquely positioned to take a major step forward in the science it conducts and products it provides, building on its tradition of using long-term monitoring and research to develop effective products for hazard mitigation. This science plan provides a blueprint both for prioritizing USGS science activities and for delineating USGS interests and potential participation in subduction zone science supported by its partners. The activities in this plan address many USGS stakeholder needs: High-fidelity tools and user-tailored information that facilitate increasingly more targeted, neighborhood-scale decisions to mitigate risks more cost-effectively and ensure post-event operability. Such tools may include maps, tables, and simulated earthquake ground-motion records conveying shaking intensity and frequency. These facilitate the prioritization of retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure; Information to guide local land-use and response planning to minimize development in likely hazardous zones (for example, databases, maps, and scenario documents to guide evacuation route planning in communities near volcanoes, along coastlines vulnerable to tsunamis, and built on landslide-prone terrain); New tools to assess the potential for cascading hazards, such as landslides, tsunamis, coastal changes, and flooding caused by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions; Geospatial models of permanent, widespread land- and sea-level changes that may occur in the immediate aftermath of great ( M ≥8.0) subduction zone earthquakes; Strong partnerships between scientists and public safety providers for effective decision making during periods of elevated hazard and risk; Accurate forecasts of far-reaching hazards (for example, ash clouds, tsunamis) to avert catastrophes and unnecessary disruptions in air and sea transportation; Aftershock forecasts to guide decisions about when and where to re-enter, repair, or rebuild buildings and infrastructure, for all types of subduction zone earthquakes.

Circular↗

USGS2017

Evidence for distributed clockwise rotation of the crust in the northwestern United States from fault geometries and focal mechanisms

Paleomagnetic and GPS data indicate that Washington and Oregon have rotated clockwise for the past 16 Myr. Late Cenozoic and Quaternary fault geometries, seismicity lineaments, and focal mechanisms provide evidence that this rotation is accommodated by north directed thrusting and right-lateral strike-slip faulting in Washington, and SW to W directed normal faulting and right-lateral strike-slip faulting to the east. Several curvilinear NW to NNW trending high-angle strike-slip faults and seismicity lineaments in Washington and NW Oregon define a geologic pole (117.7°W, 47.9°N) of rotation relative to North America. Many faults and focal mechanisms throughout northwestern U.S. and southwestern British Columbia have orientations consistent with this geologic pole as do GPS surface velocities corrected for elastic Cascadia subduction zone coupling. Large Quaternary normal faults radial to the geologic pole, which appear to accommodate crustal rotation via crustal extension, are widespread and can be found along the Lewis and Clark zone in Montana, within the Centennial fault system north of the Snake River Plain in Idaho and Montana, to the west of the Wasatch Front in Utah, and within the northern Basin and Range in Oregon and Nevada. Distributed strike-slip faults are most prominent in western Washington and Oregon and may serve to transfer slip between faults throughout the northwestern U.S.

British Columbia, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2015

The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake

The M w 6.0 South Napa earthquake, which occurred at 10:20 UTC 24 August 2014 was the largest earthquake to strike the greater San Francisco Bay area since the M w 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The rupture from this right‐lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the north and up‐dip, directing the strongest shaking toward the city of Napa, where peak ground accelerations (PGAs) between 45% g and 61% g were recorded and modified Mercalli intensities (MMIs) of VII–VIII were reported. Tectonic surface rupture with dextral slip of up to 46 cm was observed on a 12.5 km long segment, some of which was along a previously mapped strand of the West Napa fault system, although the rupture extended to the north of the mapped Quaternary strand. Modeling of seismic and geodetic data suggests an average coseismic slip of 50 cm, with a maximum slip of about 1 m at depths of 10–11 km. We observed up to 35 cm of afterslip along the surface trace in the week following the mainshock, primarily along the southern half of the surface rupture that experienced relatively little coseismic offset. Relocation of the sparse aftershock sequence suggests en echelon southwest‐ and northeast‐dipping fault planes, reflective of the complex fault geometry in this region. The Napa basin and historic and late Holocene alluvial flood deposits in downtown Napa amplified the ground motions there. Few ground failures were mapped, reflecting the dry season (as well as a persistent drought that had lowered the groundwater table) and the short duration of strong shaking in the epicentral area.

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USGS2014

A large mantle water source for the northern San Andreas Fault System: A ghost of subduction past

Recent research indicates that the shallow mantle of the Cascadia subduction margin under near-coastal Pacific Northwest U.S. is cold and partially serpentinized, storing large quantities of water in this wedge-shaped region. Such a wedge probably formed to the south in California during an earlier period of subduction. We show by numerical modeling that after subduction ceased with the creation of the San Andreas Fault System (SAFS), the mantle wedge warmed, slowly releasing its water over a period of more than 25 Ma by serpentine dehydration into the crust above. This deep, long-term water source could facilitate fault slip in San Andreas System at low shear stresses by raising pore pressures in a broad region above the wedge. Moreover, the location and breadth of the water release from this model gives insights into the position and breadth of the SAFS. Such a mantle source of water also likely plays a role in the occurrence of Non-Volcanic Tremor (NVT) that has been reported along the SAFS in central California. This process of water release from mantle depths could also mobilize mantle serpentinite from the wedge above the dehydration front, permitting upward emplacement of serpentinite bodies by faulting or by diapiric ascent. Specimens of serpentinite collected from tectonically emplaced serpentinite blocks along the SAFS show mineralogical and structural evidence of high fluid pressures during ascent from depth. Serpentinite dehydration may also lead to tectonic mobility along other plate boundaries that succeed subduction, such as other continental transforms, collision zones, or along present-day subduction zones where spreading centers are subducting.

California↗

USGS2014

The 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake and tsunamis: A modern perspective and enduring legacies

The magnitude 9.2 Great Alaska Earthquake that struck south-central Alaska at 5:36 p.m. on Friday, March 27, 1964, is the largest recorded earthquake in U.S. history and the second-largest earthquake recorded with modern instruments. The earthquake was felt throughout most of mainland Alaska, as far west as Dutch Harbor in the Aleutian Islands some 480 miles away, and at Seattle, Washington, more than 1,200 miles to the southeast of the fault rupture, where the Space Needle swayed perceptibly. The earthquake caused rivers, lakes, and other waterways to slosh as far away as the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. Water-level recorders in 47 states—the entire Nation except for Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island— registered the earthquake. It was so large that it caused the entire Earth to ring like a bell: vibrations that were among the first of their kind ever recorded by modern instruments. The Great Alaska Earthquake spawned thousands of lesser aftershocks and hundreds of damaging landslides, submarine slumps, and other ground failures. Alaska’s largest city, Anchorage, located west of the fault rupture, sustained heavy property damage. Tsunamis produced by the earthquake resulted in deaths and damage as far away as Oregon and California. Altogether the earthquake and subsequent tsunamis caused 129 fatalities and an estimated $2.3 billion in property losses (in 2013 dollars). Most of the population of Alaska and its major transportation routes, ports, and infrastructure lie near the eastern segment of the Aleutian Trench that ruptured in the 1964 earthquake. Although the Great Alaska Earthquake was tragic because of the loss of life and property, it provided a wealth of data about subductionzone earthquakes and the hazards they pose. The leap in scientific understanding that followed the 1964 earthquake has led to major breakthroughs in earth science research worldwide over the past half century. This fact sheet commemorates Great Alaska Earthquake and examines the advances in knowledge and technology that have helped to improve earthquake preparation and response both in Alaska and around the world.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Progress toward a safer future since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake interrupted several decades of seismic tranquility in the San Francisco Bay Area. It caused damage throughout the region and was a wakeup call to prepare for potentially even more damaging future quakes. Since 1989, the work of the U.S. Geological Survey and many other organizations has improved the understanding of the seismic threat in the Bay Area, promoted awareness of earthquake hazards, and contributed to more effective strategies to reduce earthquake losses. These collective efforts will help reduce the impact of future large earthquakes in the Bay Area.

California↗

USGS2014

Key recovery factors for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake

Through discussions between the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) following the South Napa earthquake, it was determined that several key decision points would be faced by FEMA for which additional information should be sought and provided by USGS and its partners. This report addresses the four tasks that were agreed to. These tasks are (1) assessment of ongoing fault movement (called afterslip) especially in the Browns Valley residential neighborhood, (2) assessment of the shaking pattern in the downtown area of the City of Napa, (3) improvement of information on the fault hazards posed by the West Napa Fault System (record of past earthquakes and slip rate, for example), and (4) imagery acquisition and data processing to provide overall geospatial information support to FEMA.

California↗

USGS2012

Seismic reflection/refraction mapping of faulting and regional dips in the eastern Alaska Range

We present the results of a Trans‐Alaska Crustal Transect (TACT) investigation of the upper 2–5 km of the eastern Alaska Range in the vicinity of the Denali fault based on seismic reflection/refraction data, laboratory measurements of rock velocities, and structural mapping. The Denali fault is a major dextral slip structure mappable for more than 2000 km separating the Wrangellia and adjacent terranes to the south from the Yukon‐Tanana and adjacent terranes to the north. Geologic mapping suggests over 400 km of dextral slip has occurred on the fault, yet within the upper 1.5 km of the crust along the TACT corridor, basement rocks juxtaposed along the Denali fault reveal no significant seismic velocity differences, although the fault zone itself is associated with a minor lowering of velocity. The lack of seismic velocity contrast adjacent to the fault is in agreement with laboratory measurements of elastic wave velocities of samples from terranes bordering the fault. Laboratory measurements of elastic wave velocities of the metasedimentary mica‐quartz schists comprising the Yukon‐Tanana basement are highly anisotropic because of preferred orientation of mica and predict significant variations in velocity accompanying variations in foliation dip. Although other interpretations are possible, the northward shallowing of foliation dip of basement rocks in the Yukon‐Tanana terrane combined with the strong anisotropy associated with these highly foliated rocks can explain an observed northward increase in seismic velocity within this terrane. Seismic reflections from basement rocks within the Yukon‐Tanana terrane may originate from variations in anisotropy with depth and/or changes in composition reflecting different proportions of sandstone and shale in the protolith.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Urban seismic experiments investigate Seattle fault and basin

In the past decade, Earth scientists have recognized the seismic hazards that crustal faults and sedimentary basins pose to Seattle, Washington (Figure 1). In 1998, the US. Geological Survey and its collaborators initiated a series of urban seismic studies of the upper crust to better map seismogenic structures and sedimentary basins in the Puget Lowland. These studies are called the Seismic Hazard Investigations of Puget Sound (SHIPS). In March 1998, we conducted our first SHIPS study, an investigation of the upper crustal structure of the Puget Lowland, using marine airgun sources and land recorders [ Fisher et al. , 1999].The study was nicknamed Wet SHIPS. In September 1999, we obtained a seismic refraction line to study the upper crustal structure in the Seattle area in a land-based study nicknamed Dry SHIPS [ Brocher et al. , 2000] (Figure 1). In March 2000, we recorded the demolition of the Seattle Kingdome sports stadium using a dense array of seismic recorders for a detailed site response study; this study was nicknamed Kingdome SHIPS (Figure 1).

Washington↗

USGS2009

Data files for ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and scenario earthquakes on the Northern San Andreas Fault

This data set contains results from ground-motion simulations of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, seven hypothetical earthquakes on the northern San Andreas Fault, and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The bulk of the data consists of synthetic velocity time-histories. Peak ground velocity on a 1/60th degree grid and geodetic displacements from the simulations are also included. Details of the ground-motion simulations and analysis of the results are discussed in Aagaard and others (2008a,b).

Data Series↗

USGS2008

Earthquakes generated from bedding plane-parallel reverse faults above an active wedge thrust, Seattle fault zone

A key question in earthquake hazard analysis is whether individual faults within fault zones represent independent seismic sources. For the Seattle fault zone, an upper plate structure within the Cascadia convergent margin, evaluating seismic hazard requires understanding how north-side-up, bedding-plane reverse faults, which generate late Holocene fault scarps, interact with the north-vergent master-ramp thrust and overlying backthrust of the fault zone. A regional uplift at A.D. 900–930 involved an earthquake that nucleated at depth and included slip on both the master-ramp thrust and the back-thrust. This earthquake also included slip on some of the <6-km-deep north-side-up, bedding-plane reverse faults. At locales where the north-side-up reverse faults intersect the Puget Sound coast, an earthquake a few centuries earlier than the A.D. 900–930 regional uplift only uplifted areas within hundreds of meters north of the reverse faults. We infer that the bedding-plane reverse faults are seismogenic because shore platforms near the reverse faults have been abruptly uplifted during earthquakes when other shorelines in the Seattle fault zone were unaffected. Faults of the Seattle fault zone therefore can both produce regional uplift earthquakes, with or without surface displacement on the reverse faults, and produce earthquakes that rupture the bedding-plane reverse faults causing fault scarps and uplift localized to hundreds of meters north of these faults. This latter type of earthquake has occurred at least twice and perhaps three times in the late Holocene, and all these earthquakes preceded the regional coseismic uplift of A.D. 900–930. To account for the paleoseismic observations, we propose that the Seattle fault zone is a wedge thrust, with the leading edge being a fault-bend, wedge thrust fold. The active axial surface of the wedge thrust fold is pinned at the tip of the wedge, and a steeply north-dipping sequence of Tertiary sediment forms the south limb of the wedge thrust fold. Some of these steeply north-dipping, bedding-plane surfaces are seismogenic reverse faults that produce scarps. Earthquakes on the wedge thrust produce the regional coseismic uplift events, and earthquakes within the fault-bend fold cause the local uplift earthquakes. Thus, bedding-plane faults can rupture during earthquakes when the wedge thrust does not rupture but instead continues to accumulate seismic energy.

Washington↗

USGS2008

The Hayward Fault— Is it due for a repeat of the powerful 1868 earthquake?

On October 21, 1868, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay region. Although the region was then sparsely populated, this quake on the Hayward Fault was one of the most destructive in California's history. Recent studies show that such powerful Hayward Fault quakes have repeatedly jolted the region in the past. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists describe this fault as a tectonic time bomb, due anytime for another magnitude 6.8 to 7.0 earthquake. Because such a quake could cause hundreds of deaths, leave thousands homeless, and devastate the region's economy, the USGS and other organizations are working together with new urgency to help prepare Bay Area communities for this certain future quake.

California↗