Geology topics

Thomas C. Hanks

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas C. Hanks.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Rupture directivity of the 25 October 2022 Mw 5.1 Alum Rock earthquake

The 25 October 2022 M w 5.1 Alum Rock earthquake shows strong evidence for southeast rupture directivity along the central Calaveras fault (CCF), as indicated by observed ground motions and simulated kinematic ruptures. Peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and peak ground velocities (PGVs) are notably higher to the southeast, with an order of magnitude difference for stations at the same distance but different azimuths. In addition, PGAs are lower than that predicted by ground‐motion models by a factor of 3 on average in all the directions, indicating a low stress drop (∼1.57 MPa). Directivity function modeling and ground‐motion simulations both indicate rupture propagation to the southeast with rupture velocity between 2.3 and 2.5 km/s. We suggest that the southward rupture propagation and relatively low stress drop may be typical of M ∼5 earthquakes on this portion of the CCF.

Califronia↗

USGS2020

When source and path components trade off in ground-motion prediction equations

Current research on ground‐motion models (also known as ground‐motion prediction equations [GMPEs]) and their uncertainties focus on the separate contributions of source, path, and site to both median values and their variability. Implicit here is the assumption that the event term, path term, and site term reflect only properties of the source, path, and site, respectively. Events with larger stress drop generate more high‐frequency energy, and thus more ground motion. Therefore, the correlation of high‐frequency (i.e., peak ground acceleration [PGA] or peak ground velocity [PGV]) event terms in GMPEs with stress drop is taken to be genuine. However, PGA and PGV ground‐motion observations of the 2014 M "> M 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake clearly violate these assumptions. For this earthquake, high‐frequency ground‐motion residuals of recorded ground motion with respect to Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 Project (NGA‐West2) ground‐motion models show a dependence on distance, biasing the calculation of the event term by incorrectly mapping a regional attenuation effect into it. We examine the trade‐off between source and path effects for the South Napa earthquake and a well‐recorded California subset of the NGA‐West2 data. We fit near‐source (i.e., within 20 or 50 km) event terms and remaining differential geometrical spreading and anelastic attenuation terms in comparison to a simultaneous inversion for the source and path terms. This South Napa instance highlights one situation for which the high‐frequency event term can be interpreted as relative stress drop only when the distance dependence of the ground motions does not bias the residuals.

California↗

USGS2019

Ground-motion residuals, path effects, and crustal properties: A pilot study in southern California

To improve models of ground motion estimation and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, the engineering seismology field is moving toward developing fully nonergodic ground motion models, models specific for individual source‐to‐site paths. Previous work on this topic has examined systematic variations in ground‐motion along particular paths (from either recorded or simulated earthquake data) and has not included physical properties of the path. We present here a framework to include physical path properties, by seeking correlations between ground motion amplitudes along specific paths and crustal properties, specifically seismic velocity and anelastic attenuation, along that path. Using a large data set of small‐magnitude earthquakes recorded in Southern California, we find a correlation between the gradient of seismic S wave velocity and the path term residual, after accounting for an average geometric spreading and anelastic attenuation, indicating that heterogeneity in crustal velocity primarily controls the path‐specific attenuation. Even in aseismic regions, details of path‐specific ground motion prediction equations can be developed from crustal structure and property data.

California↗

USGS2019

Jack Boatwright’s last science

In the months before he passed away, Jack Boatwright asked us to review a manuscript on source properties, specifically stress drop, of earthquakes in northeastern North America (NENA). This manuscript originated in research funded by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), described in his final report to NRC and published as USGS Open-File Report 2018-1073 (Boatwright, 2018). We wish to call attention to Boatwright (2018) for those who may not be aware of what Jack was unable to put into journal publications.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Earthquake stress drop and Arias Intensity

We determine earthquake stress drops directly from the Arias intensity database of NGA-West2. Arias intensity (Arias, 1970) is an engineering measure proportional to the integral of the absolute value of acceleration squared, over the significant duration of the signal. As such, it is closely related to root-mean-square acceleration, and can readily be connected to earthquake stress drop (Hanks and McGuire, 1981). Arias intensity records out to 100 km yield stable stress drops for moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes, M6.5+; for smaller events ~M4.5 – 6.5, only closer-in records yield stable results. For the 116 events considered, stress drops are about 35% larger for Class 1 mainshocks than for traditional on-fault Class 2 aftershocks, and smaller for those aftershocks close to the main fault plane. Aftershock stress drops show large variability, however, implying that on average they re-rupture weakened patches, but can also rupture intact rock or high-stress asperities. We observe an increase of stress drop with earthquake depth similar to that of other studies but do not find any significant faulting mechanism dependence. The variability of the Arias intensity-based stress drop is lower than that of eGf-based stress drops from Baltay et al. (2010, 2011), and nearly on par with variability seen in ground-motion prediction equations. The Arias intensity stress drop is a novel and promising method to estimate stress drop without the need for path and site corrections, and yields further insight into the connection between source physics and ground-motion.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2019

The limits of earthquake early warning accuracy and best alerting strategy

We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately predict the observed ground motion above a predetermined damage threshold) are not expected to be the most common EEW outcome even when the earthquake magnitude and location are accurately determined. Infrequently, ground motion variability results in a user receiving a false alert because the ground motion turned out to be significantly smaller than the damage threshold. More commonly, users will experience missed alerts when the system does not issue an alert but the user experiences potentially damaging shaking. Despite these inherit limitations, EEW can significantly mitigate earthquake losses for false-alert-arm-tolerant users who choose to receive alerts for expected ground motions much smaller than the level that could cause damage. Although this results in many false alerts for earthquakes that do not produce damaging ground shaking, it minimizes the number of missed alerts and produces overall optimal performance.

California↗

USGS2018

Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility

Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground shaking than would cause damage to a building. Along the West Coast of the United States, the warning times for ground shaking could range as high as tens of seconds for moderate levels of ground shaking, or potentially longer, if a lower ground-shaking threshold is used to issue alerts. However, it is not always possible to provide advance warning of ground shaking, particularly for locations close to an earthquake that are most likely to experience very strong ground shaking. EEW alerts may be useful to individuals who can use a few seconds to move to a safe zone and to electromechanical systems that can take automatic actions to reduce damage and injuries. An EEW system, ShakeAlert, has been under development in the United States since 2006. Federal and State governments, as well as the private sector, are now investing in the ShakeAlert prototype system that will, when completed, become an operational public system for the West Coast of the United States. While the current prototype is delivering alerts to test users, improvements to the accuracy, timeliness, and utility of the alerts are needed. For this reason, it is essential that the ShakeAlert system be continuously improved through targeted research, involving not only the current ShakeAlert partner organizations, but also the broader scientific, engineering, and emergencyresponse communities. To this end, this report describes the opportunities for improvement that can be addressed through research and development over the next 5 years. Our recommendations are organized into four areas: (1) understand EEW capabilities and user needs, (2) make alerts as fast and accurate as possible, (3) ensure reliability when it counts, and (4) explore the use of new instrumentation. The first challenge is to understand EEW capabilities and user needs. EEW must deliver actionable information to people and to automated systems to mitigate short- and longterm impacts of damaging ground shaking, so development of EEW must be motivated by the needs of users. Within this challenge, we must study the technical capabilities and limitations of EEW in general, and the ShakeAlert system specifically. This includes development of performance metrics that assess the timeliness and accuracy of alerts to understand the value and utility of the ShakeAlert EEW product(s) for various user groups, including different industry sectors, emergency-management agencies, and the public. Research is needed to define the alerting choices that maximize the utility of the system for users and to determine what the available communication pathways are for providing timely alert information. Additionally, we engage users to assess how alerts will be used by different sectors to mitigate losses and to inform EEW product design. Further, social-science research is needed to develop alert messaging, including what relevant prior and follow-up information are required, to ensure effective use of alerts. The second challenge is to make alerts as fast and as accurate as possible. The timeliness and accuracy of an EEW alert is important because it will set in motion a series of actions and downstream products. An EEW alert will trigger notification across emergency-alert systems and across multiple communication channels to populations in impacted regions. The EEW alert region may grow as the earthquake fault-rupture length increases, and the EEW system’s characterization of it, evolves. We must continue research into new or improved seismic and geodetic waveform-processing methods necessary to rapidly characterize the expected ground shaking and associated uncertainties. It is important to thoroughly evaluate whether new methods improve alerts through more accurate ground-motion estimates and (or) reduced latencies (that is, longer warning times). New methods could include tracking the extent of a large rupture in real time (known as finite-fault algorithms) and ground-motionbased EEW algorithms. Additionally, ground motion predictions could be optimized for each earthquake as the earthquake fault rupture progresses by using, for example, event terms to shift ground-motion curves for more (or less) energetic ruptures. The third challenge is to ensure reliability when it counts. This challenge requires us to explore approaches that assess the expected performance of ShakeAlert across the range of earthquake magnitudes, locations, and depths that may occur within the alerting region. Large, damaging earthquakes and their associated aftershock sequences matter most for hazard and for EEW, but these large-earthquake sequences occur infrequently. We expect ShakeAlert to respond robustly to these large-earthquake sequences despite potentially long periods of relative seismic quiescence in the intervening years, and in spite of inevitable communication challenges that arise during and after a large earthquake. We must develop methods to utilize the broadest available datasets to test EEW performance, including ground-motion data recorded in other parts of the world. The observational period for large, damaging earthquakes in any particular region has been short in comparison to estimated large-earthquake recurrence times. Ground-motion records for very large, damaging western United States events and major aftershock sequences do not yet exist, nor do data exist for all potential sources of noise and spurious signals that ShakeAlert must be “tuned” to reject. In addition, robust synthetic data could provide the flexibility to test a wider range of earthquake magnitude, tectonic-setting, and noise scenarios than are covered by existing observational data. Synthetic ground-motion data must be thoroughly vetted against records of smaller magnitude earthquakes to ensure that they accurately capture both the onset and the amplitude of the ground shaking. The final challenge is to explore the use of new instrumentation. The development of EEW around the world to date has focused on the use of high-quality, scientific-grade seismic and geodetic instrumentation. The use of additional types of instrumentation or information may also improve EEW products by filling gaps in sensor coverage in countries that already have dense seismic networks or enable EEW in countries without such networks. We must keep up with these developments and continuously assess their value in supplementing existing EEW systems, such as ShakeAlert, or enabling EEW where such systems do not exist. Such developments include low-cost instrumentation with microelectromechanical system (MEMS) sensors and global positioning system (GPS)/global navigation satellite system (GNSS) antennas embedded in low-cost consumer electronics, sea-floor seismometers, geodetic instrumentation deployed along the Cascadia and Alaska megathrust margins of western North America, and borehole strainmeters that are already deployed across the region.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Decomposing leftovers: Event, path, and site residuals for a small magnitude ANZA region GMPE

Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are critical elements of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as for other applications of ground motions. To isolate the path component for the purpose of building nonergodic GMPEs, we compute a regional GMPE using a large dataset of peak ground accelerations (PGAs) from small‐magnitude earthquakes ( ⁠0.5 ≤ M ≤ 4.5 with > 10,000 events, yielding ∼120,000 recordings) that occurred in 2013 centered around the ANZA seismic network (hypocentral distances ≤180 km⁠ ) in southern California. We examine two separate methods of obtaining residuals from the observed and predicted ground motions: a pooled ordinary least‐squares model and a mixed‐effects maximum‐likelihood model. Whereas the former is often used by the broader seismological community, the latter is widely used by the ground‐motion and engineering seismology community. We confirm that mixed‐effects models are the preferred and most statistically robust method to obtain event, path, and site residuals and discuss the reasoning behind this. Our results show that these methods yield different consequences for the uncertainty of the residuals, particularly for the event residuals. Finally, our results show no correlation (correlation coefficient [CC] <0.03⁠ ) between site residuals and the classic site‐characterization term V S30 ⁠ , the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the top 30 m at a site. We propose that this is due to the relative homogeneity of the site response in the region and perhaps due to shortcomings in the formulation of V S30 ⁠ and suggest applying the provided PGA site correction terms to future ground‐motion studies for increased accuracy.

California↗

USGS2018

The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user’s location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive warnings for higher ground motion thresholds. EEW systems have the greatest potential benefit for users willing to take action at relatively low ground motion thresholds, whereas users who set relatively high thresholds for taking action are less likely to receive timely and actionable information.

California↗

USGS2017

Uncertainty, variability, and earthquake physics in ground‐motion prediction equations

Residuals between ground‐motion data and ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) can be decomposed into terms representing earthquake source, path, and site effects. These terms can be cast in terms of repeatable (epistemic) residuals and the random (aleatory) components. Identifying the repeatable residuals leads to a GMPE with reduced uncertainty for a specific source, site, or path location, which in turn can yield a lower hazard level at small probabilities of exceedance. We illustrate a schematic framework for this residual partitioning with a dataset from the ANZA network, which straddles the central San Jacinto fault in southern California. The dataset consists of more than 3200 1.15≤ M ≤3 earthquakes and their peak ground accelerations (PGAs), recorded at close distances ( R ≤20 km). We construct a small‐magnitude GMPE for these PGA data, incorporating V S 30 site conditions and geometrical spreading. Identification and removal of the repeatable source, path, and site terms yield an overall reduction in the standard deviation from 0.97 (in ln units) to 0.44, for a nonergodic assumption, that is, for a single‐source location, single site, and single path. We give examples of relationships between independent seismological observables and the repeatable terms. We find a correlation between location‐based source terms and stress drops in the San Jacinto fault zone region; an explanation of the site term as a function of kappa, the near‐site attenuation parameter; and a suggestion that the path component can be related directly to elastic structure. These correlations allow the repeatable source location, site, and path terms to be determined a priori using independent geophysical relationships. Those terms could be incorporated into location‐specific GMPEs for more accurate and precise ground‐motion prediction.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Understanding the magnitude dependence of PGA and PGV in NGA-West 2 data

The Next Generation Attenuation‐West 2 (NGA‐West 2) 2014 ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) model ground motions as a function of magnitude and distance, using empirically derived coefficients (e.g., Bozorgnia et al. , 2014 ); as such, these GMPEs do not clearly employ earthquake source parameters beyond moment magnitude ( M ) and focal mechanism. To better understand the magnitude‐dependent trends in the GMPEs, we build a comprehensive earthquake source‐based model to explain the magnitude dependence of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity in the NGA‐West 2 ground‐motion databases and GMPEs. Our model employs existing models ( Hanks and McGuire, 1981 ; Boore, 1983 , 1986 ; Anderson and Hough, 1984 ) that incorporate a point‐source Brune model, including a constant stress drop and the high‐frequency attenuation parameter κ 0 , random vibration theory, and a finite‐fault assumption at the large magnitudes to describe the data from magnitudes 3 to 8. We partition this range into four different magnitude regions, each of which has different functional dependences on M . Use of the four magnitude partitions separately allows greater understanding of what happens in any one subrange, as well as the limiting conditions between the subranges. This model provides a remarkably good fit to the NGA data for magnitudes from 3< M <8 at close rupture distances ( R rup ≤20  km). We explore the trade‐offs between Δ σ and κ 0 in ground‐motion models and data, which play an important role in understanding small‐magnitude data, for which the corner frequency is masked by the attenuation of high frequencies. That this simple, source‐based model matches the NGA‐West 2 GMPEs and data so well suggests that considerable simplicity underlies the parametrically complex NGA GMPEs.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

NGA-West2 Research Project

The NGA-West2 project is a large multidisciplinary, multi-year research program on the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The research project has been coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), with extensive technical interactions among many individuals and organizations. NGA-West2 addresses several key issues in ground-motion seismic hazard, including updating the NGA database for a magnitude range of 3.0–7.9; updating NGA ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for the “average” horizontal component; scaling response spectra for damping values other than 5%; quantifying the effects of directivity and directionality for horizontal ground motion; resolving discrepancies between the NGA and the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site amplification factors; analysis of epistemic uncertainty for NGA GMPEs; and developing GMPEs for vertical ground motion. This paper presents an overview of the NGA-West2 research program and its subprojects.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2013

Use of fragile geologic structures as indicators of unexceeded ground motions and direct constraints on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

We present a quantitative procedure for constraining probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results at a given site, based on the existence of fragile geologic structures at that site. We illustrate this procedure by analyzing precarious rocks and undamaged lithophysae at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The key metric is the probability that the feature would have survived to the present day, assuming that the hazard results are correct. If the fragile geologic structure has an extremely low probability of having survived (which would be inconsistent with the observed survival of the structure), then the calculations illustrate how much the hazard would have to be reduced to result in a nonnegligible survival probability. The calculations are able to consider structures the predicted failure probabilities of which are a function of one or more ground‐motion parameters, as well as structures that either rapidly or slowly evolved to their current state over time. These calculations are the only way to validate seismic hazard curves over long periods of time.

BSSA↗

USGS2013

The age of scarplike landforms from diffusion-equation analysis

The purpose of this paper is to review developments in the quantitative modeling of fault-scarp geomorphology, principally those since 1980. These developments utilize diffusionequation mathematics, in several different forms, as the basic model of fault-scarp evolution. Because solutions to the general diffusion equation evolve with time, as we expect faultscarp morphology to evolve with time, the model solutions carry information about the age of the structure and thus its time of formation; hence the inclusion of this paper in this volume. The evolution of fault-scarp morphology holds a small but special place in the much larger class of problems in landform evolution. In general, landform evolution means the evolution of topography as a function of both space and time. It is the outcome of the competition among those tectonic processes that make topography, erosive processes that destroy topography, and depositional processes that redistribute topography. Deposition and erosion can always be coupled through conservation-of-mass relations, but in general deposition occurs at great distance from the source region of detritus. Moreover, erosion is an inherently rough process whereas deposition is inherently smooth, as is evident from even casual inspection of shaded-relief, digital-elevation maps (e.g., Thelin and Pike, 1990; Simpson and Anders, 1992) and the current fascination with fractal representations oferoding terrains (e.g., Huang and Turcotte, 1989; Newman and Turcotte, 1990). Nevertheless, large-scale landform-evolution modeling, now a computationally intensive, advanced numerical exercise, is generating ever more realistic landforms (e.g., Willgoose and others, 1991a,b; Kooi and Beaumont, 1994; Tucker and Slingerland, 1994), although many of the rate coefficients remain poorly prescribed

Book chapter↗

USGS2013

Stable stress‐drop measurements and their variability: Implications for ground‐motion prediction

We estimate the arms‐stress drop, Graphic, (Hanks, 1979) using acceleration time records of 59 earthquakes from two earthquake sequences in eastern Honshu, Japan. These acceleration‐based static stress drops compare well to stress drops calculated for the same events by Baltay et al. (2011) using an empirical Green’s function (eGf) approach. This agreement supports the assumption that earthquake acceleration time histories in the bandwidth between the corner frequency and a maximum observed frequency can be considered white, Gaussian, noise. Although the Graphic is computationally simpler than the eGf‐based Graphic‐stress drop, and is used as the “stress parameter” to describe the earthquake source in ground‐motion prediction equations, we find that it only compares well to the Graphic at source‐station distances of ∼20 km or less because there is no consideration of whole‐path anelastic attenuation or scattering. In these circumstances, the correlation between the Graphic and Graphic is strong. Events with high and low stress drops obtained through the eGf method have similarly high and low Graphic. We find that the inter‐event standard deviation of stress drop, for the population of earthquakes considered, is similar for both methods, 0.40 for the Graphic method and 0.42 for the Graphic, in log10 units, provided we apply the ∼20 km distance restriction to Graphic. This indicates that the observed variability is inherent to the source, rather than attributable to uncertainties in stress‐drop estimates

BSSA↗

USGS2013

Extreme ground motions and Yucca Mountain

Yucca Mountain is the designated site of the underground repository for the United States' high-level radioactive waste (HLW), consisting of commercial and military spent nuclear fuel, HLW derived from reprocessing of uranium and plutonium, surplus plutonium, and other nuclear-weapons materials. Yucca Mountain straddles the western boundary of the Nevada Test Site, where the United States has tested nuclear devices since the 1950s, and is situated in an arid, remote, and thinly populated region of Nevada, ~100 miles northwest of Las Vegas. Yucca Mountain was originally considered as a potential underground repository of HLW because of its thick units of unsaturated rocks, with the repository horizon being not only ~300 m above the water table but also ~300 m below the Yucca Mountain crest. The fundamental rationale for a geologic (underground) repository for HLW is to securely isolate these materials from the environment and its inhabitants to the greatest extent possible and for very long periods of time. Given the present climate conditions and what is known about the current hydrologic system and conditions around and in the mountain itself, one would anticipate that the rates of infiltration, corrosion, and transport would be very low—except for the possibility that repository integrity might be compromised by low-probability disruptive events, which include earthquakes, strong ground motion, and (or) a repository-piercing volcanic intrusion/eruption. Extreme ground motions (ExGM), as we use the phrase in this report, refer to the extremely large amplitudes of earthquake ground motion that arise at extremely low probabilities of exceedance (hazard). They first came to our attention when the 1998 probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Yucca Mountain was extended to a hazard level of 10 -8 /yr (a 10-4/yr probability for a 10 4 -year repository “lifetime”). The primary purpose of this report is to summarize the principal results of the ExGM research program as they have developed over the past 5 years; what follows will be focused on Yucca Mountain, but not restricted to it.

Nevada↗

USGS2012

b values and ω −γ seismic source models: Implications for tectonic stress variations along active crustal fault zones and the estimation of high-frequency strong ground motion

In this study the tectonic stress along active crustal fault zones is taken to be of the form , where is the average tectonic stress at depth y and Δσ p ( x, y ) is a seismologically observable, essentially random function of both fault plane coordinates; the stress differences arising in the course of crustal faulting are derived from Δσ p ( x, y ). Empirically known frequency of occurrence statistics, moment-magnitude relationships, and the constancy of earthquake stress drops may be used to infer that the number of earthquakes N of dimension ≥ r is of the form N &sim; 1/ r 2 and that the spectral composition of Δσ p ( x, y ) is of the form , where is the two-dimensional Fourier transform of Δσ p ( x, y ) expressed in radial wave number k . The γ = 2 model of the far-field shear wave displacement spectrum is consistent with the spectral composition , provided that the number of contributions to the spectral representation of the radiated field at frequency &fnof; goes as ( k / k 0 ) 2 , consistent with the quasi-static frequency of occurrence relation N &sim; 1/ r 2 ; k 0 is a reference wave number associated with the reciprocal source dimension. Separately, a variety of seismologic observations suggests that the γ = 2 model is the one generally, although certainly not always, applicable to the high-frequency spectral decay of the far-field radiation of earthquakes. In this framework, then, b values near 1, the general validity of the γ = 2 model, and the constancy of earthquake stress drops independent of size are all related to the average spectral composition of . Should one of these change as a result of premonitory effects leading to failure, as has been specifically proposed for b values, it seems likely that one or all of the other characteristics will change as well from their normative values. Irrespective of these associations, the far-field, high-frequency shear radiation for the γ = 2 model in the presence of anelastic attenuation may be interpreted as band-limited, finite duration white noise in acceleration. Its rms value, a rms , is given by the expression a rms = 0.85[2 1/2 (2π) 2 /106] (Δσ/ρ R )(&fnof; max /&fnof; 0 ) 1/2 , where Δσ is the earthquake stress drop, ρ is density, R is hypocentral distance, &fnof; 0 is the spectral corner frequency, and &fnof; max is determined by R and specific attenuation 1/ Q . For several reasons, one of which is that it may be estimated in the absence of empirically defined ground motion correlations, a rms holds considerable promise as a measure of high-frequency strong ground motion for engineering purposes.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2012

Geochemical evidence for water‐rock interaction along the San Andreas and Garlock Faults of California

Mesozoic granitoid rocks adjacent to the San Andreas fault in central California have retained their radiogenic Ar for the last 70 m.y. but have, generally, the highest 18 O and H 2 O + contents and the lowest D contents of all the granitoid rocks in California. The geographical coincidence of the D, 18 O, and H 2 O + patterns with the present trace of the San Andreas fault leave little doubt that some kind of groundwater circulation system has operated in the vicinity of the fault in central California. Similar isotopic patterns exist in rocks along the Garlock fault. These water‐rock interactions probably took place at temperatures <200°C, although depth, extent, and timing are not resolved. Stable isotope compositions of rocks from many localities of the earth have provided unambiguous proof that meteoric waters have descended to depths at least as great as 8 to 10 km when a heat source such as a cooling pluton was present. Massive circulation of groundwater is common in the upper crust of tectonically active areas and may affect the frictional stress state along major faults. The geochemical evidence for extensive deep circulation of groundwater and the relatively high permeabilities for most rocks of the upper crust recently compiled by Brace (1980) argues against nearly lithostatic fluid pressures as an ambient condition of the upper crust. Groundwater circulation along the San Andreas provides an efficient mechanism for diffusing the heat flow anomaly that arises in heat transport calculations that are based on thermal conduction alone.

California↗