Geology topics

Thomas B. Bridgeman

Publications and source records attributed to Thomas B. Bridgeman.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

A space-time geostatistical model for probabilistic estimation of harmful algal bloom biomass and areal extent

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been increasing in intensity across many waterbodies worldwide, including the western basin of Lake Erie. Substantial efforts have been made to track these blooms using in situ sampling and remote sensing. However, such measurements do not fully capture HAB spatial and temporal dynamics due to the limitations of discrete shipboard sampling over large areas and the effects of clouds and winds on remote sensing estimates. To address these limitations, we develop a space-time geostatistical modeling framework to improve estimates of HAB timing, extent, and intensity using five independent sets of chlorophyll a (chl-a) data sampled from June to October, 2008 to 2017. Based on the Bayesian information criterion for model selection, trend variables explain bloom northerly and easterly expansion from Maumee Bay, wind effects over depth, and variability among sampling methods. Cross validation results indicate the model can estimate daily, location-specific chl-a concentrations with reasonable accuracy (R2 = 55%) between monitoring cruises. Conditional simulations provide probabilistic estimates of algal biomass and surface areal extent, which are compared to remote sensing estimates. The simulations also provide, for the first time, comprehensive estimates of overall bloom biomass based on depth-integrated concentrations, with quantified uncertainties. These estimates enhance our understanding of HAB variability and can inform HAB monitoring network design, predictive modeling, and management.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2016

Internal loading of phosphorus in western Lake Erie

This study applied eight techniques to obtain estimates of the diffusive flux of phosphorus (P) from bottom sediments throughout the western basin of Lake Erie. The flux was quantified from both aerobic and anaerobic incubations of whole cores; by monitoring the water encapsulated in bottom chambers; from pore water concentration profiles measured with a phosphate microelectrode, a diffusive equilibrium in thin films (DET) hydrogel, and expressed pore waters; and from mass balance and biogeochemical diagenetic models. Fluxes under aerobic conditions at summertime temperatures averaged 1.35 mg P/m 2 /day and displayed spatial variability on scales as small as a centimeter. Using two different temperature correction factors, the flux was adjusted to mean annual temperature yielding average annual fluxes of 0.43–0.91 mg P/m 2 /day and a western basin-wide total of 378–808 Mg P/year as the diffusive flux from sediments. This is 3–7% of the 11,000 Mg P/year International Joint Commission (IJC) target load for phosphorus delivery to Lake Erie from external sources. Using these average aerobic fluxes, the sediment contributes 3.0–6.3 μg P/L as a background internal contribution that represents 20–42% of the IJC Target Concentration of 15 μg P/L for the western basin. The implication is that this internal diffusive recycling of P is unlikely to trigger cyanobacterial blooms by itself but is sufficiently large to cause blooms when combined with external loads. This background flux may be also responsible for delayed response of the lake to any decrease in the external loading.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2006

Recruitment of Hexagenia mayfly nymphs in western Lake Erie linked to environmental variability

After a 40-year absence caused by pollution and eutrophication, burrowing mayflies (Hexagenia spp.) recolonized western Lake Erie in the mid 1990s as water quality improved. Mayflies are an important food resource for the economically valuable yellow perch fishery and are considered to be major indicator species of the ecological condition of the lake. Since their reappearance, however, mayfly populations have suffered occasional unexplained recruitment failures. In 2002, a failure of fall recruitment followed an unusually warm summer in which western Lake Erie became temporarily stratified, resulting in low dissolved oxygen levels near the lake floor. In the present study, we examined a possible link between Hexagenia recruitment and periods of intermittent stratification for the years 1997-2002. A simple model was developed using surface temperature, wind speed, and water column data from 2003 to predict stratification. The model was then used to detect episodes of stratification in past years for which water column data are unavailable. Low or undetectable mayfly recruitment occurred in 1997 and 2002, years in which there was frequent or extended stratification between June and September. Highest mayfly reproduction in 2000 corresponded to the fewest stratified periods. These results suggest that even relatively brief periods of stratification can result in loss of larval mayfly recruitment, probably through the effects of hypoxia. A trend toward increasing frequency of hot summers in the Great Lakes region could result in recurrent loss of mayfly larvae in western Lake Erie and other shallow areas in the Great Lakes.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2005

Potential oxygen demand of sediments from Lake Erie

Dreissenid mussels ( Dreissena polymorpha and D. bugensis ) biodeposit large quantities of filtered materials (i.e., feces and pseudofeces) directly on bottom substrates. These biodeposits have the potential to increase oxygen demand in sediments and overlying waters and thus contribute to hypolimnetic anoxia in Lake Erie. We hypothesized that higher potential oxygen demand of sediments would occur in areas near shore than in offshore hypolimnetic waters as a result of biodeposits carried by currents from littoral water where mussels, available foods, and biodeposits may be most abundant. To address this hypothesis, we measured potential oxygen demand (mg O2/L/120 h incubation) at six sites near shore and six sites offshore monthly June to September 2002 and August 2003. In addition, we compared, in post priori hypothesis, seven sites with and five sites without dreissenid mussels. Contrary to our hypotheses, potential oxygen demand was not significantly higher in bottles containing nearshore sediments than offshore sediments. Similarly, potential oxygen demand was not significantly higher at sites with dreissenid mussels than at sites without mussels. Data are consistent with pre-dreissenid studies which show oxygen demand and percent ash-free dry weights of sediments were higher offshore than near shore and ash-free dry weight of sediments decreased June to September. Therefore, the present study provides no evidence that dreissenid mussels have contributed directly-via biodeposition-to increased anoxia observed in Lake Erie in the mid to late 1990s.

Lake Erie↗