Geology topics

Theodore R. Simons

Publications and source records attributed to Theodore R. Simons.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2012

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, that recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI: -46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%; -3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently, but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2012

American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus)

The American Oystercatcher is a large, conspicuous shorebird, common in coastal salt marshes and along sand beaches throughout the central part of its range. One of the few birds to specialize on bivalve mollusks living in saltwater, this species is completely restricted to marine habitats. Two races breed in North America—the eastern nominate race along the Atlantic coast from southern Maine south, and a second race along the Pacific coast from northwestern Baja California south. While the eastern race has been studied extensively across its range both during winter and the breeding season, the biology of the western race is poorly known and this population may also be at risk both from coastal development and hybridization with the American Black Oystercatcher ( H. bachmani ). Eastern oystercatchers regularly winter in large flocks, from Virginia south along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

Report↗

USGS2010

Diverse elevational diversity gradients in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, U.S.A.: Chapter 10

Why does the number of species vary geographically? The earliest naturalists puzzled over this question, as do many biogeographers and macroecologists today. Over the last 200-plus years, the most striking geographic pattern in species richness – the decline in species richness with increasing latitude – has received the most attention. Thanks to many recent theoretical developments, coupled with global-scale databases and satellite technology, the number of candidate mechanisms that shape the latitudinal diversity gradient has been whittled down to a manageable number.

Great Smoky Mountains National Park↗

USGS2010

Optimal control of native predators

We apply decision theory in a structured decision-making framework to evaluate how control of raccoons ( Procyon lotor ), a native predator, can promote the conservation of a declining population of American Oystercatchers ( Haematopus palliatus ) on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Our management objective was to maintain Oystercatcher productivity above a level deemed necessary for population recovery while minimizing raccoon removal. We evaluated several scenarios including no raccoon removal, and applied an adaptive optimization algorithm to account for parameter uncertainty. We show how adaptive optimization can be used to account for uncertainties about how raccoon control may affect Oystercatcher productivity. Adaptive management can reduce this type of uncertainty and is particularly well suited for addressing controversial management issues such as native predator control. The case study also offers several insights that may be relevant to the optimal control of other native predators. First, we found that stage-specific removal policies (e.g., yearling versus adult raccoon removals) were most efficient if the reproductive values among stage classes were very different. Second, we found that the optimal control of raccoons would result in higher Oystercatcher productivity than the minimum levels recommended for this species. Third, we found that removing more raccoons initially minimized the total number of removals necessary to meet long term management objectives. Finally, if for logistical reasons managers cannot sustain a removal program by removing a minimum number of raccoons annually, managers may run the risk of creating an ecological trap for Oystercatchers.

North Carolina↗

USGS2010

Effects of prior detections on estimates of detection probability, abundance, and occupancy

Survey methods that account for detection probability often require repeated detections of individual birds or repeated visits to a site to conduct Counts or collect presence-absence data. Initial encounters with individual species or individuals of a species could influence detection probabilities for subsequent encounters. For example, observers may be more likely to redetect a species or individual once they are aware of the presence of that species or individual at a particular site. Not accounting for these effects could result in biased estimators of detection probability, abundance, and occupancy. We tested for effects of prior detections in three data sets that differed dramatically by species, geographic location, and method of counting birds. We found strong support (AIC weights from 83% to 100%) for models that allowed for the effects of prior detections. These models produced estimates of detection probability, abundance, and occupancy that differed substantially from those produced by models that ignored the effects of prior detections. We discuss the consequences of the effects of prior detections on estimation for several sampling methods and provide recommendations for avoiding these effects through survey design or by modeling them when they cannot be avoided.

The Auk↗

USGS2010

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

North Carolina↗

USGS2006

Comparison of breeding bird and vegetation communities in primary and secondary forests of Great Smoky Mountains National Park

We compared breeding bird communities and vegetation characteristics at paired point locations in primary (undisturbed) and mature secondary forest (70-100 years old) sites in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA to understand how sites logged prior to creation of the park compare to undisturbed sites following 70 years of protection from human disturbance. We found that bird and vegetation communities are currently similar, but retain some differences in species composition. Rank abundance curves for primary and secondary forest bird communities showed very similar patterns of species dominance. Species composition was also similar on the two sites which shared 24 of the 25 most frequently recorded species. Nonetheless, comparisons of density estimates derived from distance sampling showed three bird species were more abundant on primary forest sites and that one bird species was significantly more abundant on secondary forest sites. Notably, comparisons based on raw counts (unadjusted for potential differences in detectability) produced somewhat different results. Analyses of vegetation samples for the paired sites also showed relative similarity, but with some differences between primary and secondary forests. Primary forest sites had more large trees (trees greater than 50 cm diameter at breast height) and late successional species. Primary forest sites had a denser tall shrub layer while secondary forest sites had a denser canopy layer. Nonetheless, tree species richness, basal area of live trees and number of standing snags did not differ between primary and secondary forest sites. Results indicate that breeding bird communities on sites within the park that were logged commercially 70 years ago are currently quite similar to bird communities on sites with no history of human disturbance. Similarities between the bird communities on previously disturbed and undisturbed sites in Great Smoky Mountains National Park may exceed those on more fragmented landscapes because large patches of primary forest, adjacent to commercially logged sites, remained in the park when it was established in 1935. These patches of primary forest may have served as source areas for commercially logged sites.

North Carolina, Tennessee↗

USGS2005

A comparison of American Oystercatcher reproductive success on barrier beach and river island habitats in coastal North Carolina

American Oystercatcher ( Haematopus palliatus ) numbers along the east coast of the United States are declining in some areas and expanding in others. Researchers have suggested that movement from traditional barrier beach habitats to novel inland habitats and coastal marshes may explain some of these changes, but few studies have documented oystercatcher reproductive success in non-traditional habitats. This study compares the reproductive success of the American Oystercatcher on three river islands in the lower Cape Fear River of North Carolina with that of birds nesting on barrier island beach habitat of Cape Lookout National Seashore. There were 17.6 times more oystercatcher breeding pairs per kilometer on the river island habitat than barrier beach habitat. The Mayfield estimate of daily nest content survival was 0.97 (S.E. ± 0.0039) on river islands, significantly higher than 0.92 (S.E. ± 0.0059) on barrier islands. The primary identifiable cause of nest failure on the river islands was flooding while the main cause of nest failure on the barrier islands was mammalian predation. Fledging success was equally low at both study sites. Only 0.19 chicks fledged per pair in 2002, and 0.21 chicks fledged per pair in 2003 on the river islands and 0.14 chicks fledged per pair in 2002 and 0.20 chicks fledged per pair in 2003 on the barrier islands. Many questions are still unanswered and more research is needed to fully understand the causes of chick mortality and the functional significance of non-traditional nesting habitats for the American Oystercatcher in the eastern United States.

North Carolina↗