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Terry A. Kenney

Publications and source records attributed to Terry A. Kenney.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

Ratingcurve: A Python package for fitting streamflow rating curves

Streamflow is one of the most important variables in hydrology, but it is difficult to measure continuously. As a result, nearly all streamflow time series are estimated from rating curves that define a mathematical relationship between streamflow and some easy-to-measure proxy like water surface elevation (stage). Despite the existence of automated methods, most rating curves are still fit manually, which can be time-consuming and subjective. Although several automated methods exist, they vary greatly in performance because of the non-convex nature of the problem. In this work, we develop a parameterization of the segmented power law that works reliably with minimal data, which could serve operationally or as a benchmark for evaluating other methods. The model, along with test data and tutorials, is available as an open-source Python package called ratingcurve . The implementation uses a modern probabilistic machine-learning framework, which is relatively easy to modify so that others can improve upon it.

Hydrology

Prioritizing river basins for intensive monitoring and assessment by the US Geological Survey

The US Geological Survey (USGS) is currently (2020) integrating its water science programs to better address the nation’s greatest water resource challenges now and into the future. This integration will rely, in part, on data from 10 or more intensively monitored river basins from across the USA. A team of USGS scientists was convened to develop a systematic, quantitative approach to prioritize candidate basins for this monitoring investment to ensure that, as a group, the 10 basins will support the assessment and forecasting objectives of the major USGS water science programs. Candidate basins were the level-4 hydrologic units (HUC04) with some of the smaller HUC04s being combined; median candidate-basin area is 46,600 km 2 . Candidate basins for the contiguous United States (CONUS) were grouped into 18 hydrologic regions. Ten geospatial variables representing land use, climate change, water use, water-balance components, streamflow alteration, fire risk, and ecosystem sensitivity were selected to rank candidate basins within each of the 18 hydrologic regions. The two highest ranking candidate basins in each of the 18 regions were identified as finalists for selection as “Integrated Water Science Basins”; final selection will consider input from a variety of stakeholders. The regional framework, with only one basin selected per region, ensures that as a group, the basins represent the range in major drivers of the hydrologic cycle. Ranking within each region, primarily based on anthropogenic stressors of water resources, ensures that settings representing important water-resource challenges for the nation will be studied.

contiguous United States

Analysis of annual dissolved-solids loading from selected natural and irrigated catchments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1974-2003

Dissolved-solids loading from 17 natural catchments and 14 irrigated catchments in the Upper Colorado River Basin was examined for the period from 1974 through 2003. In general, dissolved-solids loading increased and decreased concurrently in natural and irrigated catchments but at different magnitudes. Annually, the magnitude of loading in natural catchments changed about 10 percent more, on average, than in irrigated catchments. Measures of variability, or spread, indicate that natural catchments had 35 percent greater annual variability in loading than irrigated catchments. Precipitation and dissolved-solids loads were positively correlated in natural catchments, and a weak positive correlation was determined for irrigated catchments. A weak negative correlation between temperature and dissolved-solids load was determined for both natural and irrigated catchments. In irrigated catchments, the dissolved-solids load response to an above-average precipitation period from 1982 through 1987 generally lagged behind that in the natural catchments. On average, irrigated catchments with reservoir storage had the largest normalized maximum annual loads during the wet period.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Two-dimensional streamflow simulations of the Jordan River, Midvale and West Jordan, Utah

The Jordan River in Midvale and West Jordan, Utah, flows adjacent to two U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Superfund sites: Midvale Slag and Sharon Steel. At both sites, geotechnical caps extend to the east bank of the river. The final remediation tasks for these sites included the replacement of a historic sheet-pile dam and the stabilization of the river banks adjacent to the Superfund sites. To assist with these tasks, two hydraulic modeling codes contained in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Dimensional Surface-Water Modeling System (MD_SWMS), System for Transport and River Modeling (SToRM) and Flow and Sediment Transport and Morphological Evolution of Channels (FaSTMECH), were used to provide predicted water-surface elevations, velocities, and boundary shear-stress values throughout the study reach of the Jordan River. A SToRM model of a 0.7 mile subreach containing the sheet-pile dam was used to compare water-surface elevations and velocities associated with the sheet-pile dam and a proposed replacement structure. Maps showing water-surface elevation and velocity differences computed from simulations of the historic sheet-pile dam and the proposed replacement structure topographies for streamflows of 500 and 1,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) were created. These difference maps indicated that the velocities associated with the proposed replacement structure topographies were less than or equal to those associated with the historic sheet-pile dam. Similarly, water-surface elevations associated with the proposed replacement structure topographies were all either greater than or equal to water-surface elevations associated with the sheet-pile dam. A FaSTMECH model was developed for the 2.5-mile study reach to aid engineers in bank stabilization designs. Predicted water-surface elevations, velocities and shear-stress values were mapped on an aerial photograph of the study reach to place these parameters in a spatial context. Profile plots of predicted cross-stream average water-surface elevations and cross-stream maximum and average velocities showed how these parameters change along the study reach for two simulated discharges of 1,040 ft 3 /s and 2,790 ft 3 /s. The profile plots for the simulated streamflow of 1,040 ft 3 /s show that the highest velocities are associated with the constructed sheet-pile replacement structure. Results for the simulated streamflow of 2,790 ft 3 /s indicate that the geometry of the 7800 South Bridge causes more backwater and higher velocities than the constructed sheet-pile replacement structure.

Utah

Analysis of watersheds monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station network in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has operated streamflow-gaging stations in 1,053 watersheds in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) since 1894. Currently, 223 of these streamgages are active. This report presents selected watershed characteristics for 10,338 watersheds in the UCRB. These watersheds are compared to the watersheds upstream of USGS streamgages to assess how well the USGS streamgage network represents the physical characteristics of the watersheds in the entire basin. To conduct this assessment, 17 watershed characteristics, including physiographic parameters, land cover types, lithology, and parameters that describe anthropogenic influence, were computed for each of the gaging station drainage basins. The set of 10,338 watersheds in the UCRB was constructed from a previously developed stream-reach network, and the same 17 basin characteristics were computed for each watershed to facilitate comparisons. The USGS streamgage watersheds and the UCRB watersheds were split into those that are currently unaffected by upstream reservoir regulation and those currently affected by upstream reservoir regulation. In general, for unregulated watersheds, the streamgage network represents the range of most basin characteristics in the watersheds of the UCRB. However, the active streamgage network for unregulated watersheds is generally lacking in representation of most basin characteristics compared with watersheds in the UCRB. At regulated locations, the streamgage network including the active network, generally represents the range of most basin characteristics well.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming

Levels at gaging stations

Operational procedures at U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations include periodic leveling checks to ensure that gages are accurately set to the established gage datum. Differential leveling techniques are used to determine elevations for reference marks, reference points, all gages, and the water surface. The techniques presented in this manual provide guidance on instruments and methods that ensure gaging-station levels are run to both a high precision and accuracy. Levels are run at gaging stations whenever differences in gage readings are unresolved, stations may have been damaged, or according to a pre-determined frequency. Engineer’s levels, both optical levels and electronic digital levels, are commonly used for gaging-station levels. Collimation tests should be run at least once a week for any week that levels are run, and the absolute value of the collimation error cannot exceed 0.003 foot/100 feet (ft). An acceptable set of gaging-station levels consists of a minimum of two foresights, each from a different instrument height, taken on at least two independent reference marks, all reference points, all gages, and the water surface. The initial instrument height is determined from another independent reference mark, known as the origin, or base reference mark. The absolute value of the closure error of a leveling circuit must be less than or equal to 0.003√n ft, where n is the total number of instrument setups, and may not exceed |0.015| ft regardless of the number of instrument setups. Closure error for a leveling circuit is distributed by instrument setup and adjusted elevations are determined. Side shots in a level circuit are assessed by examining the differences between the adjusted first and second elevations for each objective point in the circuit. The absolute value of these differences must be less than or equal to 0.005 ft. Final elevations for objective points are determined by averaging the valid adjusted first and second elevations. If final elevations indicate that the reference gage is off by |0.015| ft or more, it must be reset.

Techniques and Methods

Dissolved-Solids Load in Henrys Fork Upstream from the Confluence with Antelope Wash, Wyoming, Water Years 1970-2009

Annual dissolved-solids load at the mouth of Henrys Fork was estimated by using data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 09229500, Henrys Fork near Manila, Utah. The annual dissolved-solids load for water years 1970-2009 ranged from 18,300 tons in 1977 to 123,300 tons in 1983. Annual streamflows for this period ranged from 14,100 acre-feet in 1977 to 197,500 acre-feet in 1983. The 25-percent trimmed mean dissolved-solids load for water years 1970-2009 was 44,300 tons per year at Henrys Fork near Manila, Utah. Previous simulations using a SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model for dissolved solids specific to water year 1991 conditions in the Upper Colorado River Basin predicted an annual dissolved-solids load of 25,000 tons for the Henrys Fork Basin upstream from Antelope Wash. On the basis of computed dissolved-solids load data from Henrys Fork near Manila, Utah, together with estimated annual dissolved-solids load from Antelope Wash and Peoples Canal, this prediction was adjusted to 37,200 tons. As determined by simulations with the Upper Colorado River Basin SPARROW model, approximately 56 percent (14,000 tons per year) of the dissolved-solids load at Henrys Fork upstream from Antelope Wash is associated with the 21,500 acres of irrigated agricultural lands in the upper Henrys Fork Basin.

Scientific Investigations Report

Land Disturbance Associated with Oil and Gas Development and Effects of Development-Related Land Disturbance on Dissolved-Solids Loads in Streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin, 1991, 2007, and 2025

Oil and gas resource development in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) has increased substantially since the year 2000. The UCRB encompasses several significant oil and gas producing areas that have the potential for continued oil and gas resource development. Land disturbance associated with oil and gas resource development is caused by activities related to constructing drill pads to contain drilling and well maintenance equipment and roads to access the drill pad. Land disturbed by oil and gas development has the potential to cause increased erosion, stream degradation, habitat fragmentation and alteration, and increase public use of areas that may be environmentally sensitive. Land disturbance resulting from oil and gas resource development has not been monitored and mapped on a regional scale in the UCRB. However, information on the location and age of oil and gas wells in the UCRB is available. These data combined with geographic data analysis and modeling techniques were used to estimate the total area of disturbed land associated with oil and gas resource development in 1991 and in 2007 in the UCRB. Additional information about anticipated oil and gas development in the UCRB was used to project land disturbance to the year 2025. Results of the analysis indicate that approximately 117,500 acres (183 mi2) of total land disturbance was associated with drill pads and related roads in the UCRB in 1991. The estimated area of disturbed land associated with oil and gas development increased 53 percent to 179,400 acres (280 mi2) in 2007. Projecting oil and gas development through 2025 results in a potential near doubling of the land surface disturbance to approximately 319,300 acres (500 mi2). Estimated land disturbance for 1991 and 2007 were input to a contaminant transport model developed for the UCRB to assess the statistical significance of energy-related land disturbance to contributing dissolved solids to basin streams. The statistical assessment was an observational study based on an existing model and available water-quality monitoring data for the basin. No new data were collected for the analysis. The source coefficient calibrated for the disturbed lands associated with oil and gas development in 2007 was zero, which indicated that estimated land disturbance from oil and gas development is not statistically significant in explaining dissolved solids in UCRB streams. The lack of significance in the contaminant transport modeling framework may be due to the amount of available monitoring data, the spatial distribution of monitoring sites with respect to land disturbance, or the overall quantity of land disturbance associated with oil and gas development basin wide. Finally, dissolved-solids loads derived from natural landscapes may be similar to loads derived from lands disturbed by oil and gas resource development. The model recalibration done for this study confirms calibration results from Kenney and others (2009): the most significant contributor to dissolved solids in the UCRB is irrigated agricultural land, which covers an area substantially larger than the estimated area disturbed by oil and gas development and is subjected to artificially applied water.

Scientific Investigations Report

Spatially referenced statistical assessment of dissolved-solids load sources and transport in streams of the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) discharges more than 6 million tons of dissolved solids annually, about 40 to 45 percent of which are attributed to agricultural activities. The U.S. Department of the Interior estimates economic damages related to salinity in excess of $330 million annually in the Colorado River Basin. Salinity in the UCRB, as measured by dissolved-solids load and concentration, has been studied extensively during the past century. Over this period, a solid conceptual understanding of the sources and transport mechanisms of dissolved solids in the basin has been developed. This conceptual understanding was incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed Attributes (SPARROW) surface-water quality model to examine statistically the dissolved-solids supply and transport within the UCRB. Geologic and agricultural sources of dissolved solids in the UCRB were defined and represented in the model. On the basis of climatic and hydrologic conditions along with data availability, water year 1991 was selected for examination with SPARROW. Dissolved-solids loads for 218 monitoring sites were used to calibrate a dissolved-solids SPARROW model for the UCRB. The calibrated model generally captures the transport mechanisms that deliver dissolved solids to streams of the UCRB as evidenced by R2 and yield R2 values of 0.98 and 0.71, respectively. Model prediction error is approximated at 51 percent. Model results indicate that of the seven geologic source groups, the high-yield sedimentary Mesozoic rocks have the largest yield of dissolved solids, about 41.9 tons per square mile (tons/mi2). Irrigated sedimentary-clastic Mesozoic lands have an estimated yield of 1,180 tons/mi2, and irrigated sedimentary-clastic Tertiary lands have an estimated yield of 662 tons/mi2. Coefficients estimated for the seven landscape transport characteristics seem to agree well with the conceptual understanding of the role they play in the delivery of dissolved solids to streams in the UCRB. Predictions of dissolved-solids loads were generated for more than 10,000 stream reaches of the stream network defined in the UCRB. From these estimates, the downstream accumulation of dissolved solids, including natural and agricultural components, were examined in selected rivers. Contributions from each of the 11 dissolved-solids sources were also examined at select locations in the Grand, Green, and San Juan Divisions of the UCRB. At the downstream boundary of the UCRB, the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona, monitoring site, the dissolved-solids contribution of irrigated agricultural lands and natural sources were about 45 and 57 percent, respectively. Finally, model predictions, including the contributions of natural and agricultural sources for selected locations in the UCRB, were compared with results from two previous studies.

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, New Mexico, Utah, Wyomin

Methods for estimating monthly and annual streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in Utah

The monthly 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows were calculated for 266 streamflow-gaging stations in Utah and the surrounding states. Using geographic information systems software, 24 physiographic and climatic basin characteristics were computed for each gaging station location. Using these data, regional regression equations were created to predict monthly 80-, 50-, and 20-percent streamflow and annual mean streamflow at ungaged sites in Utah. The state of Utah was divided into seven distinct geohydrologic regions on the basis of a variety of physiographic, climatic, and hydrologic characteristics. Separate regression equations were developed for each region except region 3, which was combined with region 5 because of the small number of gaging stations in region 3. Root mean square error percent for the equations ranged from 34 to 379 percent. The equations are more reliable for predicting high-streamflow statistics (20-percent exceedance) than for predicting the low-streamflow statistics (80-percent exceedance). In general, the mean annual streamflow equations had smaller errors than the monthly predicting equations. The developed equations documented in this report will be implemented in StreamStats, a USGS Web-based tool that allows users to obtain a variety of streamflow statistics and basin characteristics by selecting a location on a map interface.

Utah

Flood plain delineation for the Fremont River and Bull Creek, Hanksville, Utah

Predicted inundation maps for the Fremont River and Bull Creek in Hanksville, Utah, were developed using one-dimensional hydraulic models. Estimates of the 1-percent chance (100-year) peak streamflows were determined for the Fremont River and Bull Creek study reaches by using annual peak series data from streamflow-gaging stations and regional peak-flow regression equations. Surveyed topographic data for the study reaches were processed for use in the one-dimensional hydraulic models. The 1-percent chance (100-year) peak streamflows were simulated with hydraulic models to obtain predicted water-surface elevations. Water-surface elevations were then used to map the predicted inundation on a recent aerial photograph. The 1-percent chance (100-year) flood plain for the Fremont River in Hanksville, Utah, included some agricultural lands and did not encroach upon the town. The 1-percent chance (100-year) flood plain on the west side of Bull Creek was found to include a large portion of the town of Hanksville, Utah.

Utah

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of peak flows for natural streams in Utah

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak streamflows is critical for the safe and cost-effective design of hydraulic structures and stream crossings, and accurate delineation of flood plains. Engineers, planners, resource managers, and scientists need accurate estimates of peak-flow return frequencies for locations on streams with and without streamflow-gaging stations. The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows were estimated for 344 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Utah and nearby in bordering states. These data along with 23 basin and climatic characteristics computed for each station were used to develop regional peak-flow frequency and magnitude regression equations for 7 geohydrologic regions of Utah. These regression equations can be used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of peak flows for natural streams in Utah within the presented range of predictor variables. Uncertainty, presented as the average standard error of prediction, was computed for each developed equation. Equations developed using data from more than 35 gaging stations had standard errors of prediction that ranged from 35 to 108 percent, and errors for equations developed using data from less than 35 gaging stations ranged from 50 to 357 percent.

Utah

Hydraulic and geomorphic monitoring of experimental bridge scour mitigation at selected bridges in Utah, 2003-05

Unique bridge scour mitigation designs using concrete A-Jacks were developed by the Utah Department of Transportation and installed at the Colorado River Bridge at State Road 191 and the Green River Bridge at State Road 19. The U.S. Geological Survey monitored stream reaches at these sites by collecting streambed-topography and water-velocity data from 2003 through 2005. These data were acquired annually from a moving boat with an acoustic Doppler current profiler and a differential global positioning system. Raw unordered data were processed and readied for interpolation into organized datasets with DopplerMacros, a set of computer programs. Processed streambed topography data were geostatistically interpolated by using Ordinary Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation was used in the development of the two-dimensional velocity datasets. These organized datasets of topography and velocity were developed for each survey of the two bridge sites. A comparison of the riverbed topography data for each survey was done. An increase in bed elevation related to the installation of the A-Jacks scour countermeasures is evident at the Colorado River Bridge at State Road 191. The three topographic datasets acquired after the installation at the Green River Bridge at State Road 19 show few changes.

Utah

Initial-phase investigation of multi-dimensional streamflow simulations in the Colorado River, Moab Valley, Grand County, Utah, 2004

A multi-dimensional hydrodynamic model was applied to aid in the assessment of the potential hazard posed to the uranium mill tailings near Moab, Utah, by flooding in the Colorado River as it flows through Moab Valley. Discharge estimates for the 100- and 500-year recurrence interval and for the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) were evaluated with the model for the existing channel geometry. These discharges also were modeled for three other channel-deepening configurations representing hypothetical scour of the channel at the downstream portal of Moab Valley. Water-surface elevation, velocity distribution, and shear-stress distribution were predicted for each simulation. The hydrodynamic model was developed from measured channel topography and over-bank topographic data acquired from several sources. A limited calibration of the hydrodynamic model was conducted. The extensive presence of tamarisk or salt cedar in the over-bank regions of the study reach presented challenges for determining roughness coefficients. Predicted water-surface elevations for the current channel geometry indicated that the toe of the tailings pile would be inundated by about 4 feet by the 100-year discharge and 25 feet by the PMF discharge. A small area at the toe of the tailings pile was characterized by velocities of about 1 to 2 feet per second for the 100-year discharge. Predicted velocities near the toe for the PMF discharge increased to between 2 and 4 feet per second over a somewhat larger area. The manner to which velocities progress from the 100-year discharge to the PMF discharge in the area of the tailings pile indicates that the tailings pile obstructs the over-bank flow of flood discharges. The predicted path of flow for all simulations along the existing Colorado River channel indicates that the current distribution of tamarisk in the over-bank region affects how flood-flow velocities are spatially distributed. Shear-stress distributions were predicted throughout the study reach for each discharge and channel geometry examined. Material transport was evaluated by applying these shear-stress values to empirically determined critical shear-stress values for grain sizes ranging from very fine sands to very coarse gravels.

Utah