Geology topics

Ted Swem

Publications and source records attributed to Ted Swem.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale

The American kestrel ( Falco sparverius , hereafter referred to as kestrel) has declined across much of its North American range since at least the mid-1960s. Kestrel population dynamics have been explored through a multitude of local studies and two broad reviews of available data. Across large geographic extents, however, the demographic cause(s) of kestrel population declines remain(s) largely unknown. As part of a collaborative effort to elucidate the drivers of kestrel population declines, we developed a continental-scale integrated population model using band-recovery data, productivity data, and Breeding Bird Survey indices from 1986 to 2019 to estimate indices of annual population sizes, survival, and productivity rates across the continental United States. We detected a decline in population size of ~1%–2% per year. Overall estimates of population growth from 1986 to 2019 suggest a 29% decline in population size (95% CI = −34% to −23%). There was little evidence of a trend in brood size. However, survival of juvenile birds (mean = −0.015, SD = 0.008 and mean = −0.024, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) and adult males (mean = −0.016, SD = 0.010) in the summer declined, suggesting that these vital rates could be contributing to declines in populations over time. Winter adult survival rates (mean = −0.004, SD = 0.009 and mean = −0.009, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) also declined but to a lesser extent than summer survival. For juvenile birds, winter survival increased (mean = 0.006, SD = 0.008 and mean = 0.002, SD = 0.009 for females and males, respectively); however, this was not enough to offset declines in summer survival and annual survival rates declined over the time series. Annual adult survival was also low relative to previous research on kestrel survival rates. Given the importance of survival to population trends, our findings provide support for several previously proposed broad classes of factors potentially contributing to observed population declines: declines in arthropod prey, second-generation rodenticides, neonicotinoid insecticides, and predation.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2026

Status assessment of peregrine falcons in North America using integrated population models

Species status assessments require an understanding of underlying population dynamics and important drivers of species demography. Large-scale assessments can be difficult due to challenges collating data obtained through different methods and different sources at multiple scales. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework to combine multiple data sources and jointly estimate population parameters over a large spatiotemporal scale. We developed separate IPMs to estimate abundance and demographic rates for a northern (NMP) and southern (SMP) management population of peregrine falcons ( Falco peregrinus ) in North America from 2008 through 2019 (SMP) and 2020 (NMP). An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) starting in 2021 led us to extend our modeling effort to assess its impact on these management populations by updating both IPMs using index data of population size through 2024 in a predictive framework. Survival probabilities differed drastically between first-year and after-first-year individuals in both management populations. After-first-year survival was nearly identical between the NMP and SMP, but first-year survival was lower in the SMP. Mean productivity was significantly lower in the NMP compared to the SMP, whereas the probability of breeding was similar in both management populations. Estimated total abundance for the NMP was substantially larger than the SMP, representing most of the North American peregrine population. Population growth was positive for both management populations, albeit at a slower rate for the NMP. The NMP declined from 2017 to 2018 coinciding with a drop in 2018 estimated productivity. When we extended the IPMs with updated count data through 2024, the NMP slightly declined but estimated abundance remained above levels at the start of the time series analyzed. The SMP grew at a similar rate to that predicted during the period informed by demographic data. We did not detect a continental-scale change in population size or trajectory in either management population associated with the arrival of HPAI in 2021. Further monitoring can support determination of whether the declines in the NMP were temporary, can enhance understanding of the underlying mechanisms, and can be used to guide the conservation and management of the peregrine falcon population in North America.

North America↗

USGS2022

The DDT-induced decline influenced genetic diversity in naturally-recovered peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) nesting within the Alaska Arctic and eastern Interior

We assessed the influence of the severe mid-20 th century population decline on genetic diversity in non-augmented peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus ) populations nesting within Alaska Arctic and eastern Interior. Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data were analyzed for peregrine falcons sampled from three periods: pre-decline, decline, and post-decline. The influence of the decline on genetic diversity differed between the two locales. Alaska Arctic was characterized by shifts in mtDNA haplotype frequencies, increased inbreeding coefficient, reduction in effective population size, and increase in private haplotypes, and a signature of post-decline population growth was detected, while eastern Interior showed a reduction in haplotype diversity, no differences in allelic or haplotypic frequencies between pre- and post-decline periods, though pre-decline birds clustered away from the other two periods and allelic frequency differences were observed between decline and post-decline periods. Patterns in genetic diversity suggest populations recovered through recruitment from within and immigration.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Isolation and characterization of microsatellite loci in merlins (Falco columbarius) and cross-species amplification in gyrfalcons (F. rusticolus) and peregrine falcons (F. peregrinus)

I. Background: Merlins, Falco columbarius, breed throughout temperate and high latitude habitats in Asia, Europe, and North America. Like peregrine falcons, F. peregrinus, merlins underwent population declines during the mid-to-late 20th century, due to organochlorine-based contamination, and have subsequently recovered, at least in North American populations. II. Methods and Results: To better understand levels of genetic diversity and population structuring in contemporary populations and to assess the impact of the 20th century decline, we used genomic data archived in public databases and constructed genomic libraries to isolate and characterize a suite of 17 microsatellite markers for use in merlins. We also conducted cross-amplification experiments to determine the markers’ utility in peregrine falcons and gyrfalcons, F. rusticolus. III. Conclusions: These markers provide a valuable addition to marker suites that can be used to determine individual identity and conduct genetic analyses on merlins and congeners.

Molecular Biology Reports↗

USGS2020

Use of genetic mark-recapture to estimate breeding site fidelity and philopatry in a threatened sea duck population, Alaska-breeding Steller’s eiders

The Steller’s eider (Polysticta stelleri) is a sea duck that breeds in Arctic tundra regions of Russia and Alaska. The Alaska-breeding population is listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of a perceived contraction of their breeding range in North America. Understanding demographic rates of the listed population is critical for determining and evaluating measures that can lead to an increase in abundance and thus, long-term viability. Specifically, estimates of return rates to breeding areas by adult females and natal areas by juvenile females are needed for planning effective recovery actions. We used a suite of polymorphic loci to genotype individuals and generated genetic profiles of nesting females and female offspring from nest materials collected from 1995 – 2016 in a ~170 km2 study area near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. We analyzed capture histories of genetically-identified individuals to estimate breeding site fidelity, temporary emigration, and natal site fidelity (philopatry). From a sample of 365 nests, we found that breeding site fidelity of adult females was high (0.91, SE 0.07) and temporary emigration also was high (0.77, SE 0.06) and variable across years (range 0.34 – 0.97). From egg shell remains of 124 hatched females, we observed nine recaptures as nesting adults, suggesting that philopatry was also high (range 0.6-1.0). Given the relatively high rates of adult female breeding site fidelity and female philopatry that we estimated, management actions that reduce mortality of adult females and increase annual productivity are likely to help maintain the population of a few hundred breeding Steller’s eiders on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2018

Incorporating productivity as a measure of fitness into models of breeding area quality of Arctic peregrine falcons

Using empirical location data from individuals to model habitat quality and species distributions is valuable towards understanding habitat use of wildlife, especially for conservation and management planning. Incorporating measures of reproductive success or survival into these models helps address the role of vital rates (a surrogate of fitness) in affecting a species’ distribution. We used 24-year datasets of Arctic peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus tundrius ) nest-site locations and productivity from the Colville River Special Area, Alaska, USA to model suitability of breeding habitat and the relative quality of used and potential nest sites. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models and covariates describing nest-site productivity, area of surrounding prey habitat, geology, topography, and land-cover type to model and predict intensity of Arctic peregrine falcon nest-site use along the Colville River, and developed a predictive map of intensity of nest-site use. Regions of higher predicted intensity of use were characterized by steeper slopes, greater area of prey habitat, and higher average productivity, which are likely attributed to minimizing predation risk, gaining advantages for hunting, having sufficient prey resources, site quality, and overall fitness. Including productivity in intensity of nest-site use models improved the models, supporting our supposition that adding a fitness parameter enhanced the predictive capability of the species distribution model. Areas predicted to have higher intensity of use by our model can be used to focus efforts of continued protection of areas with frequently occupied and productive nest sites, and conversely, identify areas where protection of nest sites is likely to have few conservation benefits.

Alaska↗

USGS2017

Intraspecific evolutionary relationships among peregrine falcons in western North American high latitudes

Subspecies relationships within the peregrine falcon ( Falco peregrinus ) have been long debated because of the polytypic nature of melanin-based plumage characteristics used in subspecies designations and potential differentiation of local subpopulations due to philopatry. In North America, understanding the evolutionary relationships among subspecies may have been further complicated by the introduction of captive bred peregrines originating from non-native stock, as part of recovery efforts associated with mid 20 th century population declines resulting from organochloride pollution. Alaska hosts all three nominal subspecies of North American peregrine falcons– F . p . tundrius , anatum , and pealei –for which distributions in Alaska are broadly associated with nesting locales within Arctic, boreal, and south coastal maritime habitats, respectively. Unlike elsewhere, populations of peregrine falcon in Alaska were not augmented by captive-bred birds during the late 20 th century recovery efforts. Population genetic differentiation analyses of peregrine populations in Alaska, based on sequence data from the mitochondrial DNA control region and fragment data from microsatellite loci, failed to uncover genetic distinction between populations of peregrines occupying Arctic and boreal Alaskan locales. However, the maritime subspecies, pealei , was genetically differentiated from Arctic and boreal populations, and substructured into eastern and western populations. Levels of interpopulational gene flow between anatum and tundrius were generally higher than between pealei and either anatum or tundrius . Estimates based on both marker types revealed gene flow between augmented Canadian populations and unaugmented Alaskan populations. While we make no attempt at formal taxonomic revision, our data suggest that peregrine falcons occupying habitats in Alaska and the North Pacific coast of North America belong to two distinct regional groupings–a coastal grouping ( pealei ) and a boreal/Arctic grouping (currently anatum and tundrius )–each comprised of discrete populations that are variously intra-regionally connected.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Multi‐season occupancy models identify biotic and abiotic factors influencing a recovering Arctic Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus tundrius population

Critical information for evaluating the effectiveness of management strategies for species of concern include distinguishing seldom occupied (or low‐quality) habitat from habitat that is frequently occupied and thus contributes substantially to population trends. Using multi‐season models that account for imperfect detection and a long‐term (1981–2002) dataset on migratory Arctic Peregrine Falcons Falco peregrinus tundrius nesting along the Colville River, Alaska, we quantified the effects of previous year's productivity (i.e. site quality), amount of prey habitat, topography, climate, competition and year on occupancy dynamics across two spatial scales (nest‐sites, cliffs) during recovery of the population. Initial occupancy probability was positively correlated with area of surrounding prey habitat and height of nest‐sites above the Colville River. Colonization probability was positively correlated with nest height and negatively correlated with date of snowmelt. Local extinction probability was negatively correlated with productivity, area of prey habitat and nest height. Colonization and local extinction probabilities were also positively and negatively correlated, respectively, with year. Our results suggest that nest‐sites (or cliffs) along the Colville River do not need equal protection measures. Nest‐sites and cliffs with historically higher productivity were occupied most frequently and had lower probability of local extinction. These sites were on cliffs high above the river drainage, surrounded by adequate prey habitat and with southerly aspects associated with early snowmelt and warmer microclimates in spring. Protecting these sites is likely to encourage continued occupancy by Arctic Peregrine Falcons along the Colville River and other similar areas. Our findings also illustrate the importance of evaluating fitness parameters along with climate and habitat features when analysing occupancy dynamics, particularly with a long‐term dataset spanning a range of annual climate variation.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Lack of genetic polymorphism among peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus of Fiji

We compared levels of genetic diversity and isolation among peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus from two South Pacific island complexes (Fiji and Vanuatu: F. p. nesiotes ), relative to other island and mainland populations. Fragment data from 12 microsatellite loci and sequence information from the control region of the mitochondrial DNA indicated levels of genetic variation in the South Pacific populations were lower than other island and mainland populations. Indeed, diversity varied from extremely low (Vanuatu) to completely absent (Fiji). We find little support for a hypothesis that populations on Fiji or Vanuatu were colonized via Australia. The complete lack of polymorphism in peregrine falcons of Fiji is remarkable, and to our knowledge has not been observed in a natural avian population. This lack of polymorphism, and the inability to test for decrease in polymorphism using museum samples, precludes testing whether the lack of genetic diversity in the population on Fiji is due to a recent bottleneck, or sustained isolation over evolutionary time. Increased fertility in eggs of Fiji peregrines upon outbreeding with males from other areas is consistent with inbreeding depression within a population typified by heterozygote deficiency.

Journal of Avian Biology↗