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USGS2026

Trends in subdaily to daily rainfall in Florida, 1990–2022

Changing rainfall patterns and intensifying rainfall extremes affect urban infrastructure and can increase flash-flood risk. Understanding how climate change has altered rainfall can support state and local agencies as they adapt and build resiliency. In this study, rainfall data from 23 weather stations in Florida were used to examine temporal and spatial trends over the period 1990–2022. Subdaily to daily rainfall events of durations 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h were examined. A variety of statistical methods were applied to examine annual and seasonal trends, including quantile regression, extreme value analysis, run theory using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen–Theil slope, and Poisson and negative binomial tests, and threshold exceedance rates using generalized additive models. Using subdaily rainfall data posed challenges, including equipment failures, limited documentation of the quality assurance and control process, and potential measurement interferences. Results indicated that over 1990–2022, there was a decrease in hourly rainfall extremes but an increase at moderate quantiles. Overall, the number of rainfall events increased, particularly at shorter durations, but the mean total rainfall per event decreased. Additionally, the annual number of daily rainfall extremes showed more decreases than increases.

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USGS2025

Characterizing projected future droughts for south Florida (2056–2095)

Balance anomalies, defined as the deviation of monthly precipitation minus reference evapotranspiration from their long-term monthly historical means (1950–2005), were computed for regions in south Florida and temporally averaged over 6- and 12-month timescales to identify meteorological drought events during a historical (1950–2005) and future (2056–2095) period of interest for 40 CMIP5 general circulation models (GCM) and scenario combinations downscaled by the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs method. Under the assumption of stomatal resistance ( r s ) remaining constant at the historical standard value (70 s/m), 81% of models project declines in monthly balance anomalies in the future compared to historical, with multimodel ensemble mean declines of 3.7 in/year under RCP4.5 and 8.7 in/year under RCP8.5. Drought events were identified from the downscaled model projections, their characteristics (duration and intensity) extracted, and their historical joint distributions validated against those derived from historical observational datasets. The future joint distributions of drought characteristics were compared across models using hierarchical clustering. A climate model summary plot and table were developed based on these methods to guide climate model selection for hydrologic modeling in support of water-supply planning at the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD). The model summary plot for the entire SFWMD shows that 35% of GCM/training-dataset combinations have historical joint distributions of drought characteristics that are significantly different at the 10% level from those derived from observational gridded data, whereas 39% of GCM/scenario/training-dataset combinations have future joint distributions that are significantly different from historical. A sensitivity analysis was performed assuming r s increasing with increasing CO 2 .

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