Geology topics

Tal Ben-Horin

Publications and source records attributed to Tal Ben-Horin.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2020

Models with environmental drivers offer a plausible mechanism for the rapid spread of infectious disease outbreaks in marine organisms

The first signs of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epidemic occurred in just few months in 2013 along the entire North American Pacific coast. Disease dynamics did not manifest as the typical travelling wave of reaction-diffusion epidemiological model, suggesting that other environmental factors might have played some role. To help explore how external factors might trigger disease, we built a coupled oceanographic-epidemiological model and contrasted three hypotheses on the influence of temperature on disease transmission and pathogenicity. Models that linked mortality to sea surface temperature gave patterns more consistent with observed data on sea star wasting disease, which suggests that environmental stress could explain why some marine diseases seem to spread so fast and have region-wide impacts on host populations.

Baja California, British Columbia, California, Ore↗

USGS2020

Modeling pathogen dispersal in marine fish and shellfish

Bio-physical models are a useful tool for understanding dispersal and transmission of marine pathogens. While utilized for larval dispersal models, they are only recently being used in epidemiological studies and are currently underutilized by the marine epidemiology field. Bio-physical models are useful for spatial planning and coastal management. For example, they have been used for spatial planning of salmon farm site locations, and to establish early warning networks. Bio-physical modeling can be used to test hypotheses, rather than simply develop them. Model resolution and computation demands must be balanced when making decisions about model parameters. Epidemiological bio-physical models are in their infancy. While they have proven useful so far, future applications of these models can incorporate more aspects of disease dynamics and address many additional questions.

Trends in Parasitology↗

USGS2018

Intensive oyster aquaculture can reduce disease impacts on sympatric wild oysters

Risks associated with disease spread from fish and shellfish farming have plagued the growth and public perception of aquaculture worldwide. However, by processing nutrients and organic material from the water column, the culture of many suspension-feeding bivalves has been proposed as a novel solution toward mitigating problems facing coastal water quality, including the removal of disease-causing parasites. Here we developed and simulated an epidemiological model describing sympatric oyster Crassostrea virginica populations in aquaculture and the wild impacted by the protozoan parasite Perkinsus marinus . Our model captured the indirect interaction between wild and cultured populations that occurs through sharing water-borne P. marinus transmission stages, and we hypothesized that oyster aquaculture can enhance wild oyster populations through reduced parasitism as long as cultured oysters are harvested prior to spreading disease. We found that the density of oysters in aquaculture, which is commonly thought to lead to the spread of disease through farms and out to nearby populations in the wild, has only indirect effects on P. marinus transmission through its interaction with the rate of aquaculture harvests. Sufficient aquaculture harvest, which varies with the susceptibility of farmed oysters to P. marinus infection and their lifespan once infected, reduces disease by diluting parasites in the environment. Our modeling results offer new insights toward the broader epidemiological implications of oyster aquaculture and effective disease management.

Aquaculture Environment Interactions↗

USGS2016

Fishing diseased abalone to promote yield and conservation

Past theoretical models suggest fishing disease-impacted stocks can reduce parasite transmission, but this is a good management strategy only when the exploitation required to reduce transmission does not overfish the stock. We applied this concept to a red abalone fishery so impacted by an infectious disease (withering syndrome) that stock densities plummeted and managers closed the fishery. In addition to the non-selective fishing strategy considered by past disease-fishing models, we modelled targeting (culling) infected individuals, which is plausible in red abalone because modern diagnostic tools can determine infection without harming landed abalone and the diagnostic cost is minor relative to the catch value. The non-selective abalone fishing required to eradicate parasites exceeded thresholds for abalone sustainability, but targeting infected abalone allowed the fishery to generate yield and reduce parasite prevalence while maintaining stock densities at or above the densities attainable if the population was closed to fishing. The effect was strong enough that stock and yield increased even when the catch was one-third uninfected abalone. These results could apply to other fisheries as the diagnostic costs decline relative to catch value.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2015

Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum . We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases↗

USGS2015

Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: a Bayesian approach

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number R 0 . However, understanding the mechanisms linking R 0 and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this, we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of R 0 and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of R 0 . Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15°C to 25°C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially ~25–32°C; mortality from 20°C to 30°C; parasite development rate at ~15–16°C and again at ~33–35°C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of R 0 . While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models.

Ecology↗

USGS2014

Abalone farm discharges the withering syndrome pathogen into the wild

An intracellular bacterium Candidatus Xenohaliotis californiensis , also called Withering-Syndrome Rickettsia-Like Organism (WS-RLO), is the cause of mass mortalities that are the chief reason for endangerment of black abalone ( Haliotis cracherodii ). Using a real-time PCR assay, we found that a shore-based abalone farm (AF) in Santa Barbara, CA, USA discharged WS-RLO DNA into the ocean. Several other shore-based AFs discharge effluent into critical habitat for black abalone in California and this might affect the recovery of wild black abalone. Existing regulatory frameworks exist that could help protect wild species from pathogens released from shore-based aquaculture.

Frontiers in Microbiology↗

USGS2013

Variable intertidal temperature explains why disease endangers black abalone

Epidemiological theory suggests that pathogens will not cause host extinctions because agents of disease should fade out when the host population is driven below a threshold density. Nevertheless, infectious diseases have threatened species with extinction on local scales by maintaining high incidence and the ability to spread efficiently even as host populations decline. Intertidal black abalone (Haliotis cracherodii), but not other abalone species, went extinct locally throughout much of southern California following the emergence of a Rickettsiales-like pathogen in the mid-1980s. The rickettsial disease, a condition known as withering syndrome (WS), and associated mortality occur at elevated water temperatures. We measured abalone body temperatures in the field and experimentally manipulated intertidal environmental conditions in the laboratory, testing the influence of mean temperature and daily temperature variability on key epizootiological processes of WS. Daily temperature variability increased the susceptibility of black abalone to infection, but disease expression occurred only at warm water temperatures and was independent of temperature variability. These results imply that high thermal variation of the marine intertidal zone allows the pathogen to readily infect black abalone, but infected individuals remain asymptomatic until water temperatures periodically exceed thresholds modulating WS. Mass mortalities can therefore occur before pathogen transmission is limited by density-dependent factors.

Ecology↗

USGS2012

Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramaticallylower than previously predicted

The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 °C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 °C (6 °C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 °C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 °C optimum and the decline above 28 °C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.

Ecology Letters↗