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Tabitha A. Graves

Publications and source records attributed to Tabitha A. Graves.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Human activities and weather drive contact rates of wintering elk

Wildlife aggregation patterns can influence disease transmission. However, limited research evaluates the influence of anthropogenic and natural factors on aggregation. Many managers would like to reduce wildlife contact rates, driven by aggregation, to limit disease transmission. We develop a novel analytical framework to quantify how management activities such as supplemental feeding and hunting versus weather drive contact rates while accounting for correlated contacts. We apply the framework to the National Elk Refuge (NER), Wyoming, USA, where the probable arrival of chronic wasting disease (CWD) has magnified concerns. We used a daily proximity index to measure contact rates among 68 global positioning system collared elk from 2016 to 2019. We modelled contact rates as a function of abiotic weather‐related effects, anthropogenic effects and aggregation from the prior day. The winter of 2017–2018 had greater natural forage availability and little snow, which led to a rare non‐feeding year on the NER and provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of feeding on contact rates relative to other conditions. Supplemental feeding was the strongest predictor of aggregation, and contact rates were 2.6 times larger while feeding occurred compared to the baseline rate (0.34 and 0.13, respectively). Snow‐covered area was the second strongest predictor of contact rates highlighting the importance of abiotic factors to elk aggregation, but this effect had half the strength of feeding. These results are the first to show, even in animals that congregate naturally, how greatly supplemental feeding amplifies aggregation. Contact rates were also 23% lower during times when elk hunting was active (0.10) compared to the baseline. Synthesis and applications . Supplemental feeding increased contacts between elk well above the natural effects of weather, even after accounting for correlated movement expected in wintering ungulates. Similarly, differences in hunting season timing with adjacent areas led to an increase in contacts, suggesting an additional management option for reducing aggregation. The analytical framework presented supports the evaluation of temporally varying management actions that influence aggregation broadly and can be easily implemented whether the interest in changing aggregation is related to reduction of disease transmission, human–wildlife conflict or inter‐species competition.

Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Evaluating wildlife translocations using genomics: A bighorn sheep case study

Wildlife restoration often involves translocation efforts to reintroduce species and supplement small, fragmented populations. We examined the genomic consequences of bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis ) translocations and population isolation to enhance understanding of evolutionary processes that affect population genetics and inform future restoration strategies. We conducted a population genomic analysis of 511 bighorn sheep from 17 areas, including native and reintroduced populations that received 0–10 translocations. Using the Illumina High Density Ovine array, we generated datasets of 6,155 to 33,289 single nucleotide polymorphisms and completed clustering, population tree, and kinship analyses. Our analyses determined that natural gene flow did not occur between most populations, including two pairs of native herds that had past connectivity. We synthesized genomic evidence across analyses to evaluate 24 different translocation events and detected eight successful reintroductions (i.e., lack of signal for recolonization from nearby populations) and five successful augmentations (i.e., reproductive success of translocated individuals) based on genetic similarity with the source populations. A single native population founded six of the reintroduced herds, suggesting that environmental conditions did not need to match for populations to persist following reintroduction. Augmentations consisting of 18–57 animals including males and females succeeded, whereas augmentations of two males did not result in a detectable genetic signature. Our results provide insight on genomic distinctiveness of native and reintroduced herds, information on the relative success of reintroduction and augmentation efforts and their associated attributes, and guidance to enhance genetic contribution of augmentations and reintroductions to aid in bighorn sheep restoration.

Montana, Idaho, Wyoming↗
USGS2020

Ungulate migrations of the western United States, Volume 1

Across the western United States, many ungulate herds must migrate seasonally to access resources and avoid harsh winter conditions. Because these migration paths cover vast landscapes (in other words migration distances up to 150 miles [241 kilometers]), they are increasingly threatened by roads, fencing, subdivisions, and other development. Over the last decade, many new tracking studies have been conducted on migratory herds, and analytical methods have been developed that allow for population-level corridors and stopovers to be mapped and prioritized. In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey assembled a Corridor Mapping Team to provide technical assistance to western states working to map bison, elk, moose, mule deer, and pronghorn migrations using existing Global Positioning System data. Led by the Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, the team consists of federal scientists, university researchers, and biologists and analysts from participating state agencies. In its first year, the team has worked to develop standardized analytical and computational methods and a workflow applicable to datasets typically collected by state agencies. In 2019, the team completed analyses necessary to map corridors, stopovers, routes and winter ranges in Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming. A total of 26 corridors, 16 migration routes, 25 stopovers, and 9 winter ranges were mapped across these states and are included in this report. This report and associated data release provide the means for the habitats required for migration to be taken into account by state and federal transportation officials, land and wildlife managers, planners, and other conservationists working to maintain big-game migration in the western states.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2020

Comparative performance and trend of remotely sensed phenology and productivity metrics across the Western United States

Vegetation phenology and productivity play a crucial role in surface energy balance, plant and animal distribution, and animal movement and habitat use and can be measured with remote sensing metrics including start of season (SOS), peak instantaneous rate of green-up date (PIRGd), peak of season (POS), end of season (EOS), and integrated vegetation indices. However, for most metrics, we do not yet understand the agreement of remotely sensed data products with near-surface observations. We also need summaries of changes over time, spatial distribution, variability, and consistency in remote sensing dataset metrics for vegetation timing and quality. We compare metrics from 10 leading remote sensing datasets against a network of PhenoCam near-surface cameras throughout the western United States from 2002 to 2014. Most phenology metrics representing a date (SOS, PIRGd, POS, and EOS), rather than a duration (length of spring, length of growing season), better agreed with near-surface metrics but results varied by dataset, metric, and land cover, with absolute value of mean bias ranging from 0.38 (PIRGd) to 37.92 days (EOS). Datasets had higher agreement with PhenoCam metrics in shrublands, grasslands, and deciduous forests than in evergreen forests. Phenology metrics had higher agreement than productivity metrics, aside from a few datasets in deciduous forests. Using two datasets covering the period 1982–2016 that best agreed with PhenoCam metrics, we analyzed changes over time to growing seasons. Both datasets exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity in the direction of phenology trends. Variability of metrics increased over time in some areas, particularly in the Southwest. Approximately 60% of pixels had consistent trend direction between datasets for SOS, POS, and EOS, with the direction varying by location. In all ecoregions except Mediterranean California, EOS has become later. This study comprehensively compares remote sensing datasets across multiple growing season metrics and discusses considerations for applied users to inform their data choices. des indicators of vegetation timing and quality through metrics such as start of season (SOS), peak instantaneous rate of green-up date (PIRGd), peak of season (POS), end of season (EOS), and integrated vegetation indices. Few comparisons guide users in dataset selection, examine a large spatial extent, and include multiple metrics. This study compares metrics from 10 leading remote sensing datasets against a network of PhenoCam near-surface cameras throughout the Western United States from 2002-2014. Correlation (R2) and mean bias varied substantially by dataset, metric, and land cover. The closest association with PhenoCam measured phenology metrics represented a date (SOS, PIRGd, POS, and EOS) rather than a duration (length of spring, length of growing season), with R2 of individual datasets ranging from 0.03 (SOS) – 0.55 (PIRGd), and absolute value of mean bias ranging from 0.38 (PIRGd) – 37.92 days (EOS). Datasets had higher agreement with PhenoCam metrics in shrublands, grasslands, and deciduous/broadleaf forests than in evergreen forests. Productivity metrics agreed worse than phenology metrics, though some datasets showed high correlations in deciduous/broadleaf forests. Using the two datasets that agreed best with PhenoCam metrics and covered 1982-2016, we conducted a trend analysis to study changes to growing seasons. Trends in phenology exhibited substantial spatial heterogeneity in the direction of trend for both datasets. Variability of metrics increased over time in some areas, particularly in the Southwest. Approximately 60% of pixels had consistent trend direction (both earlier and later) for SOS, POS, and EOS. In all ecoregions except Mediterranean California EOS trended toward a later date. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of remote sensing datasets across many important phenology and productivity metrics and discusses considerations for users to make informed decisions about their data choices.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗
USGS2020

Western bumble bee: Declines in United States and range-wide information gaps

In recent decades, many bumble bee species have declined due to changes in habitat, climate, and pressures from pathogens, pesticides, and introduced species. The western bumble bee ( Bombus occidentalis ), once common throughout western North America, is a species of concern and will be considered for listing by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). We attempt to improve alignment of data collection and research with USFWS needs to consider redundancy, resiliency, and representation in the upcoming species status assessment. We reviewed existing data and literature on B. occidentalis , highlighting information gaps and priority topics for research. Priorities include increased knowledge of trends, basic information on several life‐history stages, and improved understanding of the relative and interacting effects of stressors on population trends, especially the effects of pathogens, pesticides, climate change, and habitat loss. An understanding of how and where geographic range extent has changed for the two subspecies of B. occidentalis is also needed. We outline data that could be easily collected in other research projects that would increase their utility for understanding range‐wide trends of bumble bees. We modeled the overall trend in occupancy from 1998 to 2018 of Bombus occidentalis within the continental United States using existing data. The probability of local occupancy declined by 93% over 21 yr from 0.81 (95% CRI = 0.43, 0.98) in 1998 to 0.06 (95% CRI = 0.02, 0.16) in 2018. The decline in occupancy varied spatially by landcover and other environmental factors. Detection rates vary in both space and time, but peak detection across the continental United States occurs in mid‐July. We found considerable spatial gaps in recent sampling, with limited sampling in many regions, including most of Alaska, northwestern Canada, and the southwestern United States. We therefore propose a sampling design to address these gaps to best inform the ESA species status assessment through improved assessment of how the spatial distribution of stressors influences occupancy changes. Finally, we request involvement via data sharing, participation in occupancy sampling with repeated visits to distributed survey sites, and complementary research to address priorities outlined in this paper.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2020

Systematics, evolution, and genetics of bears

Molecular genetics are key to understanding current and historical relationships between isolated populations, including species’ colonizations during glacial–interglacial cycles, to determine viability of local populations, needs for habitat corridors, and other aspects of population management, especially where bears are harvested for sport, etc. As natural habitats shrink, some bear species will inevitably require high levels of management, perhaps combining captive and wild populations following the IUCN’s One Plan Approach. In this chapter we review the systematics of the Ursidae and its relationships with other Carnivora, the molecular phylogenetic of extant ursid species, the phylogeography of and morphological variation within each species, and the use of molecular genetics to monitor bear populations for management and conservation.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Connectivity in the Crown: Highway 2 wildlife crossings

This report summarizes data collected to inform decisions on how to best mitigate the effects on wildlife migration from increasing traffic, development, and recreation along US highway 2. The highway, railway, and river split the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem. This data addresses SO 3362 by providing information on major wildlife trails, observed wildilfe crossings and road kills, and identifying the elk, deer, and other animals that use the areas near 6 potential highway crossing structure locations. This effort resulted in 621 wildlife observations of 26 species collected from hundreds of interactions with employees and the public, 31 businesses visited, and 11 events held or attended. We mapped 230 previously unrecorded wildlife trails between West Glacier and Columbia Falls and measured and photographed 390 culverts between East Glacier and Columbia Falls. We installed 12 trail cameras that captured 9248 wildlife images comprised of 12 species.

Montana↗
USGS2019

To forage or flee: Lessons from an elk migration near a protected area

Alteration of wide-ranging wildlife migrations can drastically impact the structure and function of ecosystems, yet the causes and consequences of shifting migration patterns remain largely unknown. Management decisions made in one portion of a landscape may induce spatial and temporal shifts of wildlife use in another, creating tension among private, state, and federal lands with varying missions. Recent declines in migratory behavior have initiated studies focused primarily on spring migration, but the timing and benefits of autumn migration have received limited attention due to the difficulty in assessing the extreme asynchrony in autumnal events, although nutrition during this time period is crucial to winter survival and reproduction. Here, we used five years of data from 73 female elk (Cervus canadensis) which utilize a landscape managed by 4 federal agencies, a state, and private landowners, to identify the driving factors behind the initiation of fall migration in two subpopulations, one of which migrates to a protected area where hunting is prohibited. Most elk departed summer range prior to frost or snow, with 67% of elk that used the protected area migrating prior to the onset of archery hunting season (1 September), preemptively avoiding risk, while no elk from the other subpopulation left prior to archery season. However, departure from productive summer range prior to frost or snow, nearly two months before vegetation senescence led to an important tradeoff. Early migrants gave up 0.30% of late summer-fall integrated NDVI (iNDVI) per day when they moved to the safety of the protected area, leading to an average difference of 15.81% in iNDVI between an individual departing on 30 August (the mean departure date) versus an individual departing on 1 November. Our results suggest that in areas where migratory ungulates span multiple jurisdictions, the benefits of migratory behavior may be dramatically impacted by unevenly distributed anthropogenic disturbance. As this is a common scenario globally, our work highlights the urgent need to improve our understanding of subtle changes in migratory behavior, both spatially and temporally, which may erode the resilience of migration to future change.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Mapping a keystone shrub species, huckleberry (Vaccinium membranaceum), using seasonal colour change in the Rocky Mountains

Black huckleberries ( Vaccinium membranaceum ) provide a critical food resource to many wildlife species, including apex omnivores such as the grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ), and play an important socioeconomic role for many communities in western North America, especially indigenous peoples. Remote sensing imagery offers the potential for accurate landscape-level mapping of huckleberries because the shrub changes colour seasonally. We developed two methods, for local and regional scales, to map a shrub species using leaf seasonal colour change from remote sensing imagery. We assessed accuracy with ground-based vegetation surveys. The high-resolution supervised random forest classification from one-meter resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) imagery achieved an overall accuracy of 75.31% (kappa = 0.26). The approach using multi-temporal 30-meter Landsat imagery similarly had an overall accuracy of 79.19% (kappa = .31). We found underprediction error was related to higher forest cover and a lack of visible colour change on the ground in some plots. Where forest cover was low, both models performed better. In areas with <10% forest cover, the high-resolution classification achieved an accuracy of 80.73% (kappa = 0.48), while the Landsat model had an accuracy of 82.55% (kappa = 0.47). Based on the fine-scale predictions, we found that 94% of huckleberry shrubs identified in our study area of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA are over 100 meters from human recreation trails. This information could be combined with productivity and phenology information to estimate the timing and availability of food resources for wildlife and to provide managers with a tool to identify and manage huckleberries. The development of the multi-temporal Landsat models sets the stage for assessment of impacts of disturbance at regional scales on this ecologically, culturally, and economically important shrub species. Our approach to map huckleberries is straightforward, efficient and accessible to wildlife and environmental managers and researchers in diverse fields.

Montana↗
USGS2019

U.S. Geological Survey science for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative—2017 annual report

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) was established in 2008 to address the scientific and conservation questions associated with land use changes because of energy development and other factors in southwest Wyoming. Over the past decade, partners from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), State and Federal land management agencies, universities, and the public have collaborated to implement a long-term (defined here as more than 10 years), science-based program that assesses and enhances the quality and quantity of wildlife habitats in this region while facilitating responsible development. The USGS Science Team completes scientific research and develops tools that inform and support WLCI partner planning, decision making, and on-the-ground management actions. In fiscal year 2017, USGS published 18 products (including peer-reviewed journal articles, USGS series publications, and data releases), prepared an additional 7 products for publication, and presented 14 talks or posters at professional scientific meetings in addition to numerous informal presentations to WLCI partners at meetings and workshops. In this report, we summarize the science themes that describe USGS science for the WLCI and highlight work completed in fiscal year 2017 for each science theme. We also provide information on how USGS science is being used by land managers to better achieve habitat conservation objectives.

Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Keeping the crown of the continent connected: An interagency US2 connectivity workshop report

At over 2.5 million acres, Glacier National Park and the Bob Marshall Wilderness complex form one of the largest protected areas in the continental United States. Straddling the Continental Divide, these two areas form a vital linkage between vast areas of public land to the south towards Yellowstone, and contiguous protected areas north of the US-Canada border. However, US Highway 2 (US2) and the Burlington Northern-Santa Fe (BNSF) railroad separate Glacier National Park to the north from the Bob Marshall Wilderness complex to the south. While this narrow ribbon of development passes through primarily public land, it is bordered in some areas by narrow strips of private land. Many of these private parcels are developed as ranches, campgrounds, or seasonal and permanent home sites and businesses. Currently, two of the defining characteristics of this portion of the US2 corridor are relatively low highway traffic volume, but relatively high railroad traffic volume. The highway had a 2017 annual average daily traffic volume (AADT) of 1859 vehicles, far less than other interstate highways around the region which often have AADTs well over 10,000. Conversely, the BNSF railroad line currently carries about 33 trains per day, making it one of the busier railroad lines in the northwestern US. While wildlife movement patterns across this corridor have not been well studied, the existing data suggests that wildlife can still make frequent and successful crossings at current railroad and highway traffic levels. However, as the region’s human population grows, we expect that connectivity to diminish. Over the past decade (2000-2017), based on census data, Flathead County has grown by 10% and Glacier County has grown by 1.5%. A study on loss of open space found that Flathead County alone accounts for 15% of the new homes built in Montana since 2000 (https://headwaterseconomics.org/economicdevelopment/local-studies/montana-home construction/). Outdoor recreation and tourism have also been breaking participation records (source: GPI record passengers https://flatheadbeacon.com/2018/01/24/glacier-park-international-airport-sees-record-passengers-2017/, GNP record visitation https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/montana/articles/2018-01 15/glaciernational-park-breaks-visitation-record-in-2017). This growth has been accompanied by a ~50% increase in highway traffic volume in the corridor over the past decade (Waller and Miller 2015). This increased traffic is decreasing the time available for wildlife to cross the highway and appears to be increasing the frequency of wildlife killed by vehicles (Fig. 1 and 2). In addition, the Middle Fork of the Flathead River is a favored river for recreation, and this also appears to be growing. In the summer of 2017, researchers recorded 136 boats per day in July and 93 boats per day in August. Although the river does not extend along the entire highway, it extends along 31 miles of the highway corridor.

Montana↗
USGS2016

Nature vs. nurture: Evidence for social learning of conflict behaviour in grizzly bears

The propensity for a grizzly bear to develop conflict behaviours might be a result of social learning between mothers and cubs, genetic inheritance, or both learning and inheritance. Using non-invasive genetic sampling, we collected grizzly bear hair samples during 2011–2014 across southwestern Alberta, Canada. We targeted private agricultural lands for hair samples at grizzly bear incident sites, defining an incident as an occurrence in which the grizzly bear caused property damage, obtained anthropogenic food, or killed or attempted to kill livestock or pets. We genotyped 213 unique grizzly bears (118 M, 95 F) at 24 microsatellite loci, plus the amelogenin marker for sex. We used the program COLONY to assign parentage. We evaluated 76 mother-offspring relationships and 119 father-offspring relationships. We compared the frequency of problem and non-problem offspring from problem and non-problem parents, excluding dependent offspring from our analysis. Our results support the social learning hypothesis, but not the genetic inheritance hypothesis. Offspring of problem mothers are more likely to be involved in conflict behaviours, while offspring from non-problem mothers are not likely to be involved in incidents or human-bear conflicts themselves (Barnard’s test, p = 0.05, 62.5% of offspring from problem mothers were problem bears). There was no evidence that offspring are more likely to be involved in conflict behaviour if their fathers had been problem bears (Barnard’s test, p = 0.92, 29.6% of offspring from problem fathers were problem bears). For the mother-offspring relationships evaluated, 30.3% of offspring were identified as problem bears independent of their mother’s conflict status. Similarly, 28.6% of offspring were identified as problem bears independent of their father’s conflict status. Proactive mitigation to prevent female bears from becoming problem individuals likely will help prevent the perpetuation of conflicts through social learning.

Alberta↗
USGS2016

Community for Data Integration 2015 annual report

The Community for Data Integration (CDI) continued to experience success in fiscal year 2015. The CDI community members have been sharing, learning, and collaborating through monthly forums, workshops, working groups, and funded projects. In fiscal year 2015, CDI coordinated 10 monthly forums with 16 different speakers from the U.S. Geological Survey and external partners; funded 11 collaborative projects; and hosted an in-person, four-day workshop, which attracted 168 (134 in-person and 34 remote) data practitioners, data providers, and data consumers from across the USGS, academia, industry, and other government agencies. The Citizen Science, Connected Devices, Data Management, Semantic Web, and Tech Stack Working Groups continued to accomplish great things in fiscal year 2015. These working groups were major stakeholders in planning the 2015 CDI Workshop; they continued developing solutions to pressing challenges, and they brought in speakers throughout the year for more focused presentations and discussions. Additionally, a new working group formed during the 2015 CDI Workshop—the Earth-Science Themes Working Group.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2016

Demographic mechanisms underpinning genetic assimilation of remnant groups of a large carnivore

Current range expansions of large terrestrial carnivores are occurring following human-induced range contraction. Contractions are often incomplete, leaving small remnant groups in refugia throughout the former range. Little is known about the underlying ecological and evolutionary processes that influence how remnant groups are affected during range expansion. We used data from a spatially explicit, long-term genetic sampling effort of grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), USA, to identify the demographic processes underlying spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity. We conducted parentage analysis to evaluate how reproductive success and dispersal contribute to spatio-temporal patterns of genetic diversity in remnant groups of grizzly bears existing in the southwestern (SW), southeastern (SE) and east-central (EC) regions of the NCDE. A few reproductively dominant individuals and local inbreeding caused low genetic diversity in peripheral regions that may have persisted for multiple generations before eroding rapidly (approx. one generation) during population expansion. Our results highlight that individual-level genetic and reproductive dynamics play critical roles during genetic assimilation, and show that spatial patterns of genetic diversity on the leading edge of an expansion may result from historical demographic patterns that are highly ephemeral.

Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem↗
USGS2016

Trade-offs and efficiencies in optimal budget-constrained multispecies corridor networks

Conservation biologists recognize that a system of isolated protected areas will be necessary but insufficient to meet biodiversity objectives. Current approaches to connecting core conservation areas through corridors consider optimal corridor placement based on a single optimization goal: commonly, maximizing the movement for a target species across a network of protected areas. We show that designing corridors for single species based on purely ecological criteria leads to extremely expensive linkages that are suboptimal for multispecies connectivity objectives. Similarly, acquiring the least-expensive linkages leads to ecologically poor solutions. We developed algorithms for optimizing corridors for multispecies use given a specific budget. We applied our approach in western Montana to demonstrate how the solutions may be used to evaluate trade-offs in connectivity for 2 species with different habitat requirements, different core areas, and different conservation values under different budgets. We evaluated corridors that were optimal for each species individually and for both species jointly. Incorporating a budget constraint and jointly optimizing for both species resulted in corridors that were close to the individual species movement-potential optima but with substantial cost savings. Our approach produced corridors that were within 14% and 11% of the best possible corridor connectivity for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) and wolverines (Gulo gulo) , respectively, and saved 75% of the cost. Similarly, joint optimization under a combined budget resulted in improved connectivity for both species relative to splitting the budget in 2 to optimize for each species individually. Our results demonstrate economies of scale and complementarities conservation planners can achieve by optimizing corridor designs for financial costs and for multiple species connectivity jointly. We believe that our approach will facilitate corridor conservation by reducing acquisition costs and by allowing derived corridors to more closely reflect conservation priorities.

Conservation Biology↗
USGS2015

Density, distribution, and genetic structure of grizzly bears in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem

The conservation status of the 2 threatened grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) populations in the Cabinet-Yaak Ecosystem (CYE) of northern Montana and Idaho had remained unchanged since designation in 1975; however, the current demographic status of these populations was uncertain. No rigorous data on population density and distribution or analysis of recent population genetic structure were available to measure the effectiveness of conservation efforts. We used genetic detection data from hair corral, bear rub, and opportunistic sampling in traditional and spatial capture–recapture models to generate estimates of abundance and density of grizzly bears in the CYE. We calculated mean bear residency on our sampling grid from telemetry data using Huggins and Pledger models to estimate the average number of bears present and to correct our superpopulation estimates for lack of geographic closure. Estimated grizzly bear abundance (all sex and age classes) in the CYE in 2012 was 48–50 bears, approximately half the population recovery goal. Grizzly bear density in the CYE (4.3–4.5 grizzly bears/1,000 km 2 ) was among the lowest of interior North American populations. The sizes of the Cabinet ( n = 22–24) and Yaak ( n = 18–22) populations were similar. Spatial models produced similar estimates of abundance and density with comparable precision without requiring radio-telemetry data to address assumptions of geographic closure. The 2 populations in the CYE were demographically and reproductively isolated from each other and the Cabinet population was highly inbred. With parentage analysis, we documented natural migrants to the Cabinet and Yaak populations by bears born to parents in the Selkirk and Northern Continental Divide populations. These events supported data from other sources suggesting that the expansion of neighboring populations may eventually help sustain the CYE populations. However, the small size, isolation, and inbreeding documented by this study demonstrate the need for comprehensive management designed to support CYE population growth and increased connectivity and gene flow with other populations.

Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2014

Estimating landscape resistance to dispersal

Dispersal is an inherently spatial process that can be affected by habitat conditions in sites encountered by dispersers. Understanding landscape resistance to dispersal is important in connectivity studies and reserve design, but most existing methods use resistance functions with cost parameters that are subjectively chosen by the investigator. We develop an analytic approach allowing for direct estimation of resistance parameters that folds least cost path methods typically used in simulation approaches into a formal statistical model of dispersal distributions. The core of our model is a frequency distribution of dispersal distances expressed as least cost distance rather than Euclidean distance, and which includes terms for feature-specific costs to dispersal and sex (or other traits) of the disperser. The model requires only origin and settlement locations for multiple individuals, such as might be obtained from mark&ndash;recapture studies or parentage analyses, and maps of the relevant habitat features. To evaluate whether the model can estimate parameters correctly, we fit our model to data from simulated dispersers in three kinds of landscapes (in which resistance of environmental variables was categorical, continuous with a patchy configuration, or continuous in a trend pattern). We found maximum likelihood estimators of resistance and individual trait parameters to be approximately unbiased with moderate sample sizes. We applied the model to a small grizzly bear dataset to demonstrate how this approach could be used when the primary interest is in the prediction of costs and found that estimates were consistent with expectations based on bear ecology. Our method has important practical applications for testing hypotheses about dispersal ecology and can be used to inform connectivity planning efforts, via the resistance estimates and confidence intervals, which can be used to create a data-driven resistance surface.

Landscape Ecology↗