Geology topics

Supriyati Andreastuti

Publications and source records attributed to Supriyati Andreastuti.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Editorial: Volcanic forecasting, crisis management, and risk communication

Volcanic eruptions intermittently punctuate periods of repose at volcanic centers and fields. Forecasting the timing, style, distribution, and magnitude of these eruptions is difficult, because eruptive activity varies over time, commonly in an irregular way. Furthermore, the impacts of eruptions can include loss of lives, property damage, and social and economic disturbance, where every eruption produces different impacts. Mitigation of volcanic risk is therefore complex, requiring community action that is aided by preparedness actions of emergency managers, stakeholders, community leaders, and individuals, and by timely delivery and reception of hazard information during a crisis. This Research Topic addresses efforts to understand complexities in these relations dealing with volcanic unrest, eruptions, and eruption impacts. Research Topic range from eruption forecasting (Wild et al.; Christophersen et al.; Bernard et al.) and volcanic hazard assessment (Mead et al.) to risk communication and action (Martinez-Villegas et al.; Todesco et al.; Graham et al.; Bernard et al.) prior to and during volcanic crises. The studies use various methodologies and approaches, touching on various parts of the integrated, multi-partner systems that exist to improve risk mitigation.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗

USGS2019

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano , Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

Sinabung volcano↗

USGS2012

The 2010 explosive eruption of Java's Merapi volcano—A ‘100-year’ event

Merapi volcano (Indonesia) is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in the world. It is known for frequent small to moderate eruptions, pyroclastic flows produced by lava dome collapse, and the large population settled on and around the flanks of the volcano that is at risk. Its usual behavior for the last decades abruptly changed in late October and early November 2010, when the volcano produced its largest and most explosive eruptions in more than a century, displacing at least a third of a million people, and claiming nearly 400 lives. Despite the challenges involved in forecasting this ‘hundred year eruption’, we show that the magnitude of precursory signals (seismicity, ground deformation, gas emissions) was proportional to the large size and intensity of the eruption. In addition and for the first time, near-real-time satellite radar imagery played an equal role with seismic, geodetic, and gas observations in monitoring eruptive activity during a major volcanic crisis. The Indonesian Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) issued timely forecasts of the magnitude of the eruption phases, saving 10,000–20,000 lives. In addition to reporting on aspects of the crisis management, we report the first synthesis of scientific observations of the eruption. Our monitoring and petrologic data show that the 2010 eruption was fed by rapid ascent of magma from depths ranging from 5 to 30 km. Magma reached the surface with variable gas content resulting in alternating explosive and rapid effusive eruptions, and released a total of ~ 0.44 Tg of SO 2 . The eruptive behavior seems also related to the seismicity along a tectonic fault more than 40 km from the volcano, highlighting both the complex stress pattern of the Merapi region of Java and the role of magmatic pressurization in activating regional faults. We suggest a dynamic triggering of the main explosions on 3 and 4 November by the passing seismic waves generated by regional earthquakes on these days.

Merapi volcano↗

USGS2000

10,000 Years of explosive eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java: archaeological and modern implications

Stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic deposits at Merapi Volcano, Central Java, reveals ~10,000 years of explosive eruptions. Highlights include: (1) Construction of an Old Merapi stratovolcano to the height of the present cone or slightly higher. Our oldest age for an explosive eruption is 9630±60 14 C y B.P.; construction of Old Merapi certainly began earlier. (2) Collapse(s) of Old Merapi that left a somma rim high on its eastern slope and sent one or more debris avalanche(s) down its southern and western flanks. Impoundment of Kali Progo to form an early Lake Borobudur at ~3400 14 C y B.P. hints at a possible early collapse of Merapi. The latest somma-forming collapse occurred ~1900 14 C y B.P. The current cone, New Merapi, began to grow soon thereafter. (3) Several large and many small Buddhist and Hindu temples were constructed in Central Java between 732 and ~900 A.D. (roughly, 1400-1000 14 C y B.P.). Explosive Merapi eruptions occurred before, during and after temple construction. Some temples were destroyed and (or) buried soon after their construction, and we suspect that this destruction contributed to an abrupt shift of power and organized society to East Java in 928 A.D. Other temples sites, though, were occupied by "caretakers" for several centuries longer. (4) A partial collapse of New Merapi occurred <1130±50 14 C y B.P. Eruptions ~700-800 14 C y B.P. (12-14th century A.D.) deposited ash on the floors of (still-occupied?) Candi Sambisari and Candi Kedulan. We speculate but cannot prove that these eruptions were triggered by (the same?) partial collapse of New Merapi, and that the eruptions, in turn, ended "caretaker" occupation at Candi Sambisari and Candi Kedulan. A new or raised Lake Borobudur also existed during part or all of the 12-14th centuries, probably impounded by deposits from Merapi. (5) Relatively benign lava-dome extrusion and dome-collapse pyroclastic flows have dominated activity of the 20th century, but explosive eruptions much larger than any of this century have occurred many times during Merapi's history, most recently during the 19th century. Are the relatively small eruptions of the 20th century a new style of open-vent, less hazardous activity that will persist for the foreseeable future? Or, alternatively, are they merely low-level "background" activity that could be interrupted upon relatively short notice by much larger explosive eruptions? The geologic record suggests the latter, which would place several hundred thousand people at risk. We know of no reliable method to forecast when an explosive eruption will interrupt the present interval of low-level activity. This conclusion has important implications for hazard evaluation.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗