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Geology topics

Steven W. Hostetler

Publications and source records attributed to Steven W. Hostetler.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Paleoclimate

As host to one of the major continental-scale ice sheets, and with considerable spatial variability of climate related to its physiography and location, North America has experienced a wide range of climates over time. The aim of this chapter is to review the history of those climate variations, focusing in particular on the continental-scale climatic variations between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 years ago or 21 ka) and the present, which were as large in amplitude as any experienced over a similar time span during the past several million years. As background to that discussion, the climatic variations over the Cenozoic (the past 65.5 Myr, or 65.5 Ma to present) that led ultimately to the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at 2.59 Ma will also be discussed. Superimposed on the large-amplitude, broad-scale variations from the LGM to present, are climatic variations on millennial-to-decadal scales, and these will be reviewed in particular for the Holocene (11.7 ka to present) and the past millennium.

Book chapter↗
USGS2013

Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.

Climate Dynamics↗
USGS2013

Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050–2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range = 824–4017 m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000–2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid-21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050–2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high-elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold-water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid-21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low-elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low-elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non-native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non-native species, underscoring the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies that reduce limiting factors such as non-native species and habitat degradation.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2012

The past as prelude to the future for understanding 21st-century climate effects on Rocky Mountain Trout

Bioclimatic models predict large reductions in native trout across the Rocky Mountains in the 21st century but lack details about how changes will occur. Through five case histories across the region, we explore how a changing climate has been affecting streams and the potential consequences for trout. Monitoring records show trends in temperature and hydrographs consistent with a warming climate in recent decades. Biological implications include upstream shifts in thermal habitats, risk of egg scour, increased wildfire disturbances, and declining summer habitat volumes. The importance of these factors depends on the context, but temperature increases are most relevant where population boundaries are mediated by thermal constraints. Summer flow declines and wildfires will be important where trout populations are fragmented and constrained to small refugia. A critical information gap is evidence documenting how populations are adjusting to long-term habitat trends, so biological monitoring is a priority. Biological, temperature, and discharge data from monitoring networks could be used to develop accurate vulnerability assessments that provide information regarding where conservation actions would best improve population resilience. Even with better information, future uncertainties will remain large due to unknowns regarding Earth's ultimate warming trajectory and how effects translate across scales. Maintaining or increasing the size of habitats could provide a buffer against these uncertainties.

Fisheries↗
USGS2012

Interactive coupling of a lake thermal model with a regional climate model

A one‐dimensional model of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice has been coupled in an interactive mode with the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University regional (mesoscale) atmospheric model (MM4). The coupled MM4‐lake model makes possible high‐resolution simulations of climate in the proximity of large water bodies. Atmospheric variables required as input for the lake model are supplied by MM4 and simulated values of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover axe supplied to MM4 by the lake model. We have tested the coupled model system with a 60‐day, summertime simulation at Pyramid Lake, Nevada, and with a 10‐day, wintertime simulation of the North American Great Lakes and vicinity. Both simulations were conducted at a 60‐km resolution. Results from these tests indicate the coupled model system produces realistic simulations of lake temperature, evaporation, and ice cover and that the coupled system is applicable to simulations of regional climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres↗
USGS2011

Evaluation of a present-day climate simulation with a new coupled atmosphere-ocean model GENMOM

We present a new, non-flux corrected AOGCM, GENMOM, that combines the GENESIS version 3 atmospheric GCM (Global Environmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems) and MOM2 (Modular Ocean Model version 2) nominally at T31 resolution. We evaluate GENMOM by comparison with reanalysis products (e.g., NCEP2) and three models used in the IPCC AR4 assessment. GENMOM produces a global temperature bias of 0.6 ◦C. Atmospheric features such as the jet stream structure and major semi-permanent sea level pressure centers are well simulated as is the mean planetary-scale wind structure that is needed to produce the correct position of stormtracks. Most ocean surface currents are reproduced except where they are not resolvable at T31 resolution. Overall, GENMOM captures reasonably well the observed gradients and spatial distributions of annual surface temperature and precipitation and the simulations are on par with other AOGCMs. Deficiencies in the GENMOM simulations include a warm bias in the surface temperature over the southern oceans, a split in the ITCZ and weaker-than-observed overturning circulation.

Geoscientific Model Development↗
USGS2011

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the last glacial maximum

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Science↗
USGS2010

Simulation of lake evaporation with application to modeling lake level variations of Harney‐Malheur Lake, Oregon

A physically based eddy diffusion model for simulating the seasonal variation in lake temperature and evaporation is presented and validated. Because no lake‐specific fitting of the parameters of the model is necessary, the model can be used to simulate evaporation in studies of climate change and lake hydrology in a variety of settings. The eddy diffusion model is used to simulate evaporation for input to a simple lake level model that is applied to reconstruct recent fluctuations in the level of Harney‐Malheur Lake caused by climatic variations.

Oregon↗
USGS2010

The California current of the last glacial maximum: reconstruction at 42°N based on multiple proxies

Multiple paleoceanographic proxies in a zonal transect across the California Current near 42&deg;N record modern and last glacial maximum (LGM) thermal and nutrient gradients. The offshore thermal gradient, derived from foraminiferal species assemblages and oxygen isotope data, was similar at the LGM to that at present (warmer offshore), but average temperatures were 3.3&deg; &plusmn;1.5&deg;C colder. Observed gradients require that the sites remained under the southward flow of the California Current, and thus that the polar front remained north of 42&deg;N during the LGM. Carbon isotopic and foraminiferal flux data suggests enhanced nutrients and productivity of foraminfera in the northern California Current up to 650 km offshore. In contrast, marine organic carbon and coastal diatom burial rates decreased during the LGM. These seemingly contradictory results are reconciled by model simulations of the LGM wind- field, which suggest that wind stress curl at 42&deg;N (and thus open-ocean upwelling) increased, while offshore Ekman transport (and thus coastal upwelling) decreased during the last ice age. The ecosystem of the northern California Current during the LGM approximated that of the modern Gulf of Alaska. Cooling and production in this region was thus driven by stronger open-ocean upwelling and/or southward flow of high-latitude water masses, rather than by coastal upwelling.

Paleoceanography↗
USGS2009

Use of models and observations to assess trends in the 1950–2005 water balance and climate of Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

A 1‐dimensional surface energy balance model is applied to produce continuous simulations of daily lake evaporation of Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon (UKL) for the period 1950–2005. The model is implemented using observed data from land‐based sites and rafts collected during 2005–2006. Progressively longer, temporally overlapping simulations are produced using observed forcing data sets from sites near UKL. Simulation of the entire 56 years is accomplished using forcing data derived from weather station data and a 1949–2007 regional climate simulation over western North America. Simulated mean annual evaporation for 1950–2005 is 1073 mm. The simulated evaporation estimates are an improvement over existing May–September pan‐derived estimates because the latter are not representative of annual evaporation rates and do not span the multidecadal period of interest over which climate‐driven interannual (and longer) variability is evident. Evaporation and the other components of the water balance display statistically significant trends over the past 56 years that are associated with changes in meteorological forcing over the lake and the radiative and moisture balances at higher elevations of the catchment. Trends in the basin are consistent with and imbedded in regional and hemispheric climate trends that have occurred over the last century.

Oregon↗
USGS2009

Environmental influences on speleothem growth in southwestern Oregon during the last 380, 000 years

The growth of carbonate formations in caves (speleothems) is sensitive to changes in environmental conditions at the surface (temperature, precipitation and vegetation) and can provide useful paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental information. We use 73 230 Th dates from speleothems collected from a cave in southwestern Oregon (USA) to constrain speleothem growth for the past 380 000 years. Most speleothem growth occurred during interglacial periods, whereas little growth occurred during glacial intervals. To evaluate potential environmental controls on speleothem growth we use two new modeling approaches: i) a one-dimensional thermal advection&ndash;diffusion model to estimate cave temperatures during the last glacial cycle, and ii) a regional climate model simulation for the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years before present) that assesses a range of potential controls on speleothem growth under peak glacial conditions. The two models are mutually consistent in indicating that permafrost formation did not influence speleothem growth during glacial periods. Instead, the regional climate model simulation combined with proxy data suggest that the influence of the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets on atmospheric circulation induced substantial changes in water balance in the Pacific Northwest and affected speleothem growth at our location. The overall drier conditions during glacial intervals and associated periods of frozen topsoil at times of maximum surface runoff likely induced drastic changes in cave recharge and limited speleothem growth. This mechanism could have affected speleothem growth in other mid-latitude caves without requiring the presence of permafrost.

Oregon↗
USGS2007

Analysis and modeling of long‐term stream temperatures on the Steamboat Creek Basin, Oregon: Implications for land use and fish habitat

Steamboat Creek basin is an important source of timber and provides crucial spawning and rearing habitat for anadromous steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). Because stream temperatures are near the upper limit of tolerance for the survival of juvenile steelhead, the possible long‐term effect of clear‐cut logging on stream temperatures was assessed. Twenty‐year (1969–1989) records of summer stream temperature and flow from four tributaries and two reaches of Steamboat Creek and Boulder Creek (a nearby unlogged watershed) were analyzed. Logging records for the Steamboat Creek basin and air temperature records also were used in the analysis. A time‐series model of the components of stream temperature (seasonal cycle of solar radiation, air temperature, streamflow, an autoregressive term of order 1, and a linear trend variable) was fitted to the water‐temperature data. The linear trend variable was significant in all the fitted models except Bend Creek (a tributary fed by cool ground‐water discharge) and Boulder Creek. Because no trends in either climate (i.e., air temperature) or streamflow were found in the data, the trend variable was associated with the pre‐1969 loss and subsequent regrowth of riparian vegetation and shading canopies.

Oregon↗
USGS2006

Analysis of the surface hydrology in a regional climate model

This paper discusses the surface hydrology of a multi‐year simulation of present day climate over the United States (US) conducted with a regional climate model (RegCM) nested within a general circulation model (GCM). The RegCM, which is run with a 60 km gridpoint spacing is interactively coupled with a state‐of‐the‐art surface physics package that includes full surface hydrology calculations (the Biosphere‐Atmosphere Transfer Scheme or BATS). The hydrologic budgets of ten regional drainage basins in the US are analysed. Model results are compared with available observations and with results from previous modelling experiments to evaluate the feasibility of using nested RegCM/GCM models for hydrology studies. In our experiment, the model captures the basic seasonality of the basin hydrologic budgets, although the simulated precipitation amounts are too high over the western US and too low over the eastern US. As a result, runoff, snow cover and soil water content are underestimated over the eastern US basins, while evaporation and runoff are overestimated in some of the western US basins. Topographically induced characteristics of precipitation, snow cover and runoff are well simulated over the mountainous western regions. Also well captured is the inter‐basin variation of hydrologic budgets which occurs in response to different climatic settings. The springtime snowmelt and peak runoff season generally occurs in the model earlier in the year than is observed. Although our work indicates that the coupled regional modelling system can be useful in applications to hydrological studies, results from this experiment indicate that better accuracy in the simulation of regional climatic variables and more detailed representation of some hydrologic processes would be required before the coupled modelling system could be used to provide accurate assessments of hydrologic responses to climate change.

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Soci↗
USGS2003

Coupling ice-sheet and climate models for simulation of former ice sheets

This chapter explores the development of coupled climate and ice-sheet models over the past two decades, discusses the current technical and physical capabilities of models, and identifies future work for developing a better understanding of ice-climate events that have punctuated Earth history. The chapter also illustrates the complex behavior of the climate system and the modeling challenges posed by the observations. Climate and ice-sheet models continue to improve, both in terms of model physics and technical capabilities. Regional climate model simulations should be carried out for each temporal snapshot or matrix element for improved mass–balance calculation over the ice sheets. Fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-land surface models are required for addressing a number of paleoclimatic puzzles, particularly with respect to millennial climate variability. The concerted effort to better understand West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics, and the development of subglacial hydrological models should lead to improvements in the next generation of ice-sheet models and help to address millennial-scale variability in ice-sheet/climate models.

Developments in Quaternary Sciences↗
USGS2003

Modeling paleoclimates

Paleoclimatic data and climate models play a complimentary role in understanding climate change. This chapter provides an overview of the process of climate-system modeling, presents the taxonomy of the models recently applied in the study of Quaternary climate change and variation, and discusses the development of climate modeling since the 1965 International Union for Quaternary Science (INQUA) volume and its companions are published. Models based on physical principles do have the potential to provide mechanistic explanations of past climatic variations, provided they are known to work, are applied in an appropriately designed experiment, and explicitly account for all of the components of the climate system that are involved in a particular climate change. Climate models can be classified according to the applications to which they are put, which include simulating the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the climate system and the attendant responses of environmental subsystems. The objective of paleoclimate modeling is to quantify the behavior and variations of the components that describe the climate system.

Developments in Quaternary Sciences↗
USGS2001

Freshwater forcing of abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

Large millennial-scale fluctuations of the southern margin of the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet occurred during the last deglaciation, when the margin was located between about 43° and 49°N. Fluctuations of the ice margin triggered episodic increases in the flux of freshwater to the North Atlantic by rerouting continental runoff from the Mississippi River drainage to the Hudson or St. Lawrence Rivers. We found that periods of increased freshwater flow to the North Atlantic occurred at the same time as reductions in the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, thus providing a mechanism for observed climate variability that may be generally characteristic of times of intermediate global ice volume.

Science↗