Geology topics

Steve Morey

Publications and source records attributed to Steve Morey.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Minimizing extinction risk in the face of uncertainty: Developing conservation strategies for 2 rapidly declining forest bird species on Kaua‘i Island

Many species around the world are declining precipitously as a result of multiple threats and changing climate. Managers tasked with protecting species often face difficult decisions in regard to identifying which threats should be addressed, given limited resources and uncertainty in the success of any identified management action. On Kaua‘i Island, Hawai‘i, USA, forest bird species have experienced accelerated declines over the last 20 years, and 2 species, the ‘akikiki ( Oreomystis bairdi ) and ‘akeke‘e ( Loxops caeruleirostris ), are now at the brink of extinction. Both species face multiple threats, and managers face difficult decisions on whether to mitigate threats in the wild, establish a captive population as insurance against extinction, translocate birds to novel locations, or some combination of these actions. Each set of actions (alternatives) would require substantial resources with considerable uncertainty in success. In 2014, we brought together 14 experts representing biologists and managers familiar with the species and island to develop a conservation strategy under a structured decision making (SDM) framework, an approach for making complex decisions under uncertainty. The group's challenge was to identify a set of alternatives that reduces the risk of extinction, set the foundation for one or more genetically viable, reproducing, stable to increasing populations in 10 years, and promote conditions for long-term persistence in the wild. Multiple alternatives were evaluated, via expert judgement, in terms of the probability they would achieve the objectives concerning immediate extinction risk, near-term viability, and adequacy of habitat. Factors that might impede the success of each action were also evaluated. The process identified the establishment of a captive population and efforts to stabilize the existing wild population as the approach most likely to meet the objectives of preventing imminent extinction and ensuring long-term viability.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Reserve network design for prairie-dependent taxa in South Puget Sound

Conserving species requires managing threats, including habitat loss. One approach to managing habitat loss is to identify and protect habitat in networks of reserves. Reserve network design is a type of resource allocation problem: how can we choose the most effective reserve network design given available resources? We undertook development and implementation of a patch dynamics model to allow us to evaluate proposed reserve networks in terms of ability to sustain populations of several taxa that are dependent on native prairie in the South Puget Sound region of Washington, USA. We used expert input to build a patch dynamics model for each taxon and used the model to examine probability of persistence in 50 years under a variety of reserve network designs, including the existing reserve network. Results suggest that the existing reserve network offers varying levels of protection for the different taxa, from desirable (>90% certain that the probability of persistence is ≥75% in 50 years) to negligible. We identified a reserve network that was >90% certain to protect all 6 taxa of interest, which would require a combination of land protection and translocations of taxa to new or existing reserves. Post hoc, we also identified possible hybrid alternatives, involving addition of new reserves and growth of existing reserves, that protected all 6 taxa without translocations. The approach we demonstrate is technically tractable and allows for the evaluation of any proposed reserve network design, thereby allowing a decision maker to evaluate a set of reserve networks that meet resource constraints and determine which of those best meets conservation objectives.

Washington↗

USGS2018

Improving conservation policy with genomics: A guide to integrating adaptive potential into U.S. Endangered Species Act decisions for conservation practitioners and geneticists

Rapid environmental change makes adaptive potential—the capacity of populations to evolve genetically based changes in response to selection—more important than ever for long-term persistence of at-risk species. At the same time, advances in genomics provide unprecedented power to test for and quantify adaptive potential, enabling consideration of adaptive potential in estimates of extinction risk and laws protecting endangered species. The U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) is one of the most powerful environmental laws in the world, but so far, the full potential of genomics in ESA listing and recovery decisions has not been realized by the federal agencies responsible for implementing the ESA or by conservation geneticists. The goal of our paper is to chart a path forward for integrating genomics into ESA decision making to facilitate full consideration of adaptive potential in evaluating long-term risk of extinction. For policy makers, managers, and other conservation practitioners, we outline why adaptive potential is important for population persistence and what genomic tools are available for quantifying it. For conservation geneticists, we discuss how federal agencies can integrate information on the effect of adaptive potential on extinction risk—and the related uncertainty—into decisions, and suggest next steps for advancing understanding of the effect of adaptive potential on extinction risk. The mechanisms and consequences of adaptation are incredibly complex, and we may never have a complete understanding of adaptive potential for any organism. Nevertheless, we argue that the best available evidence regarding adaptive potential should be incorporated by federal agencies into modeling and decision making processes now, while at the same time conserving genome-wide variation and striving for a deeper understanding of adaptive potential and its effects on population persistence to improve decision-making into the future.

Conservation Genetics↗

USGS2018

Implicit decision framing as an unrecognized source of confusion in endangered species classification

Legal classification of species requires scientific and values‐based components, and how those components interact depends on how people frame the decision. Is classification a negotiation of trade‐offs, a decision on how to allocate conservation efforts, or simply a comparison of the biological status of a species to a legal standard? The answers to problem‐framing questions such as these influence decision making in species classifications. In our experience, however, decision makers, staff biologists, and stakeholders often have differing perspectives of the decision problem and assume different framings. In addition to differences between individuals, in some cases it appears individuals themselves are unclear about the decision process, which contributes to regulatory paralysis, litigation, and a loss of trust by agency staff and the public. We present 5 framings: putting species in the right bin, doing right by the species over time, saving the most species on a limited budget, weighing extinction risk against other objectives, and strategic classification to advance conservation. These framings are inspired by elements observed in current classification practices. Putting species in the right bin entails comparing a scientific status assessment with policy thresholds and accounting for potential misclassification costs. Doing right by the species adds a time dimension to the classification decision, and saving the most species on a limited budget classifies a suite of species simultaneously. Weighing extinction risk against other objectives would weigh ecological or socioeconomic concerns in classification decisions, and strategic classification to advance conservation would make negotiation a component of classification. We view these framings as a means to generate thought, discussion, and movement toward selection and application of explicit classification framings. Being explicit about the decision framing could lead decision makers toward more efficient and defensible decisions, reduce internal confusion and external conflict, and support better collaboration between scientists and policy makers.

Conservation Biology↗

USGS2011

A decision-analytic approach to the optimal allocation of resources for endangered species consultation

The resources available to support conservation work, whether time or money, are limited. Decision makers need methods to help them identify the optimal allocation of limited resources to meet conservation goals, and decision analysis is uniquely suited to assist with the development of such methods. In recent years, a number of case studies have been described that examine optimal conservation decisions under fiscal constraints; here we develop methods to look at other types of constraints, including limited staff and regulatory deadlines. In the US, Section Seven consultation, an important component of protection under the federal Endangered Species Act, requires that federal agencies overseeing projects consult with federal biologists to avoid jeopardizing species. A benefit of consultation is negotiation of project modifications that lessen impacts on species, so staff time allocated to consultation supports conservation. However, some offices have experienced declining staff, potentially reducing the efficacy of consultation. This is true of the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Washington Fish and Wildlife Office (WFWO) and its consultation work on federally-threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). To improve effectiveness, WFWO managers needed a tool to help allocate this work to maximize conservation benefits. We used a decision-analytic approach to score projects based on the value of staff time investment, and then identified an optimal decision rule for how scored projects would be allocated across bins, where projects in different bins received different time investments. We found that, given current staff, the optimal decision rule placed 80% of informal consultations (those where expected effects are beneficial, insignificant, or discountable) in a short bin where they would be completed without negotiating changes. The remaining 20% would be placed in a long bin, warranting an investment of seven days, including time for negotiation. For formal consultations (those where expected effects are significant), 82% of projects would be placed in a long bin, with an average time investment of 15. days. The WFWO is using this decision-support tool to help allocate staff time. Because workload allocation decisions are iterative, we describe a monitoring plan designed to increase the tool's efficacy over time. This work has general application beyond Section Seven consultation, in that it provides a framework for efficient investment of staff time in conservation when such time is limited and when regulatory deadlines prevent an unconstrained approach. ?? 2010.

Biological Conservation↗

USGS2011

Keeping Hawai’i’s forest birds one step ahead of avian diseases in a warming world: a focus on Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge. A case study from the National Conservation and Training Center Structured Decision Making Workshop

This report is a product of a one-week workshop on using Structured Decision Making to identify and prioritize conservation actions to address the threat of climate change on Hawaii‟s native forest bird community. Specifically, t his report addresses the issue of global warming ‟s likely role in increasing disease prevalence in upper elevation forests of Hawaii, negatively impacting native bird populations susceptible to the disease but currently disease - free because of the cooler temperatures at high elevations.

Hawaii↗