Geology topics

Stephen M. Westenbroek

Publications and source records attributed to Stephen M. Westenbroek.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Simulation of monthly mean and monthly base flow of streamflow using random forests for the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain, 1901 to 2018

Improved simulations of streamflow and base flow for selected sites within and adjacent to the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain area are important for modeling groundwater flow because surface-water flows have a substantial effect on groundwater levels. One method for simulating streamflow and base flow, random forest (RF) models, was developed from the data at gaged sites and, in turn, was used to make monthly mean streamflow and base-flow predictions at 162 ungaged sites in the study area. Daily streamflow observations and computed base flow from 247 streamgages were used as the basis for the development of these RF models. RF models were constructed from basin and climatic characteristics and related to observed monthly mean streamflow values; models were used to compute monthly base-flow estimates from selected streamgages in and adjacent to the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain extent, which includes streamflows from parts of Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Texas. The explanatory variables for the models were selected to represent physical characteristics and climatic time series for the contributing drainage basins to the streamgages and ungaged locations of interest. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between observed and simulated monthly mean streamflow was greater than 0.80 for 155 of the 247 streamgages, with a median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value of 0.83. The streamflow and base-flow simulations can be used to improve inflow values and to verify the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain groundwater flow model. The statistical model, input data, and response data (simulated monthly mean streamflows) are available as a U.S. Geological Survey software release and a U.S. Geological Survey data release.

Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, ↗

USGS2022

Simulation of regional groundwater flow and groundwater/lake interactions in the Central Sands, Wisconsin

A multiscale, multiprocess modeling approach was applied to the Wisconsin Central Sands region in central Wisconsin to quantify the connections between the groundwater system, land use, and lake levels in three seepage lakes in Waushara County, Wisconsin: Long and Plainfield (The Plainfield Tunnel Channel Lakes), and Pleasant Lakes. A regional groundwater-flow model, the Newton Raphson formulation of the U.S. Geological Survey modular finite-difference flow model groundwater-modeling package (MODFLOW-NWT), centered on the lakes, was used to extend regional surface-water boundaries to provide boundary conditions for two focused inset models, in the hydrologic simulation modeling package (MODFLOW 6), at higher resolution around the lakes. Land use and groundwater use were simulated at a regional scale using the Soil Water Balance model, which provided recharge and water-use boundary conditions for the MODFLOW models. Agricultural irrigation is the primary groundwater use in the area. Land and groundwater-use scenarios representing no irrigation, current (2018) irrigation, and potential future irrigation were simulated with the groundwater-flow model and the lake levels over a 38-year representative climate period.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2019

Groundwater recharge estimates for Maine using a Soil-Water-Balance model—25-year average, range, and uncertainty, 1991 to 2015

To address the lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of recharge to groundwater systems in Maine, a study was initiated in cooperation with the Maine Geological Survey to use the U.S. Geological Survey Soil-Water-Balance model to evaluate annual average potential recharge across the State over a 25-year period from 1991 to 2015. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model was calibrated using annual observations of recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration for 32 calibration watersheds in the State during 2001–12 (902 total observations). Observations of recharge, runoff, and evapotranspiration were developed for each watershed to reduce the possibility of nonunique combinations of model parameters during the calibration. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model was run using an optional evapotranspiration calculation method that provides more control for calibration than the standard method. The model was calibrated using the Parameter ESTimation software suite. The overall mean model error (average of all annual residuals for recharge, runoff, and precipitation) was 0.39 inch. The mean of the absolute value of the residuals, or the mean absolute error, was 2.32 inches. The root mean squared error for the calibrated model overall was 3.14 inches. Statistical tests indicated that the model residuals are normally distributed. To determine the potential uncertainty in the median annual potential recharge that results from uncertainty in the parameters as they relate to information contained in the observations, 300 alternate model realizations were run, and the standard deviation of the median potential recharge value at every pixel was calculated. Simulated 25-year median potential recharge across the State is widely variable; this variability closely follows patterns of precipitation, with additional variability contributed by the patchwork nature of the combinations of land-use class and hydrologic soil group inputs, and distribution of available water capacity in the soil across the State. Overall, the 25-year median annual potential recharge across the State is 7.5 inches, ranging from a low of about 5 inches to over 30 inches. The statewide range in the 25-year minimum values is from just over 2 inches to just over 20 inches. The statewide range in the 25-year maximum potential recharge is between 15 and 48 inches per year. The model areas with the highest simulated median potential recharge include areas underlain by type A soils (sandy and well drained), particularly those that also have land uses with low or little vegetation (blueberry barrens, developed, open space, scrub/shrub, and cropland, for example). The potential recharge values for these areas are similar to previously published values for comparable soil types. The 25-year average potential recharge grids were compared to recharge evaluated through groundwater-flow models or other methods in four hydrogeologic settings at six study areas in the State. A key factor in the ability of the Soil-Water-Balance model to reproduce the earlier study results was whether the available water-capacity data were an appropriate match for the hydrologic soil groups. The Maine Soil-Water-Balance model does a good job in representing an accurate potential recharge under circumstances where the surficial mapped soils extend below the surface to the water-table aquifer and where the available water-capacity data are in an appropriate range for the hydrologic soil group. One hydrogeologic setting that was challenging for the model was where a silt and clay layer was below a shallow soil unit that did not have available water-capacity data that were appropriate for the hydrologic soil group. In these cases, typically the available water-capacity data were very low, not accounting for the impedance of water flow provided by the underlying soil. The model also does not simulate well areas where bedrock surfaces are above the water table but below the plant rooting zone. The data products accompanying this report are intended to be used to provide first-cut estimates of recharge for geographic areas no smaller than the smallest watersheds used in the calibration of the model—or about 1.5 square miles. It is recommended that the grids are used to calculate an area-wide average potential recharge for any given area of study, and an uncertainty around the mean should be calculated from the standard deviation grid at the same time.

Maine↗

USGS2018

SWB Version 2.0—A soil-water-balance code for estimating net infiltration and other water-budget components

The U.S. Geological Survey’s Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) code was developed as a tool to estimate distribution and timing of net infiltration out of the root zone by means of an approach that uses readily available data and minimizes user effort required to begin a SWB application. SWB calculates other components of the water balance, including soil moisture, reference and actual evapotranspiration, snowfall, snowmelt, canopy interception, and crop-water demand. SWB is based on a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance approach, with components of the soil-water balance calculated at a daily time step. Net-infiltration calculations are computed by means of a rectangular grid of computational elements, which allows the calculated infiltration rates to be imported into grid-based regional groundwater-flow models. SWB makes use of gridded datasets, including datasets describing hydrologic soil groups, moisture-retaining capacity, flow direction, and land use. Climate data may be supplied in gridded or tabular form. The SWB 2.0 code described in this report extends capabilities of the original SWB version 1.0 model by adding new options for representing physical processes and additional data input and output capabilities. New methods included in SWB 2.0 allow for direct gridded input of externally calculated water-budget components (fog, septic, and storm-sewer leakage), simulation of canopy interception by several alternative processes, and a crop-water demand method for estimating irrigation amounts. New input and output capabilities allow for grids with differing spatial extents and projections to be combined without requiring the user to resample and resize the grids before use.

Techniques and Methods↗

USGS2018

Simulation of potential groundwater recharge for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, 1980–2011, using the Soil-Water-Balance Model

An understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of groundwater recharge is critical for many types of hydrologic assessments involving water quality, contaminant transport, ecosystem health, and sustainable use of groundwater. Annual potential groundwater recharge was simulated at a 1-kilometer resolution with the Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model for the glacial aquifer system east of the Rocky Mountains, from central Montana east to Maine, for calendar years 1980–2011. The SWB model used high resolution meteorological, land cover, and soil hydrology datasets that are nationally consistent and publicly available. The SWB model computed daily potential groundwater recharge as precipitation in excess of interception, runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil-water storage capacity. Daily potential recharge values within each year of the simulation were summed to produce annual potential recharge rates. Potential recharge as described in this report is water that infiltrates vertically below the plant rooting zone and is assumed to reach the water table. The calibrated SWB model in this report is called the glacial SWB model. Model calibration assumed that the area contributing to groundwater discharge equaled the surface watershed. The model was calibrated to stream base flows from 39 watersheds throughout the model domain that had hydrologic conditions appropriate for hydrograph separation. Base flows were calculated from daily streamflow records with the HYSEP local minimum hydrograph separation method The glacial SWB model reproduced the mean annual base-flow calibration targets well; the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.94, and the root mean squared error was 1.28 inches per year. The glacial SWB model provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability in potential annual recharge across the glacial aquifer system. About 20 percent of the active model area had an average potential recharge rate of less than 1 inch per year. Total precipitation, total recharge, and recharge as a percentage of precipitation increased from west to east. A substantial amount of the recharge water (39 percent) entering the glacial aquifer system travels through developed (urbanized) and agricultural landscapes, which are known to cause water-quality impairments. Regional climatic events, such as the 1988 to 1989 drought, are apparent in the potential recharge time series. Potential recharge generally increased across the glacial aquifer system between 2001 and 2011. A comparison of the potential recharge from the glacial SWB model to previous broad-scale recharge estimates reveals several important considerations for future SWB modeling applications. Shifts in the overall distribution of potential recharge between separate models can be explained by methods used to generate base-flow calibration target datasets. Spatial patterns in potential recharge simulated by SWB models are strongly dependent on the data and assumptions used to assign model cells to hydrologic soil groups. A review of several SWB models used to estimate groundwater recharge (and not surface runoff) revealed that model results are most sensitive to input climatic data, followed by surface runoff (curve number) and root-zone depth parameters.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Updated polychlorinated biphenyl mass budget for Lake Michigan

This study revisits and updates the Lake Michigan Mass Balance Project (LMMBP) for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) that was conducted in 1994–1995. This work uses recent concentrations of PCBs in tributary and open lake water, air, and sediment to calculate an updated mass budget. Five of the 11 LMMBP tributaries were revisited in 2015. In these five tributaries, the geometric mean concentrations of ∑PCBs (sum of 85 congeners) ranged from 1.52 to 22.4 ng L –1 . The highest concentrations of PCBs were generally found in the Lower Fox River and in the Indiana Harbor and Ship Canal. The input flows of ∑PCBs from wet deposition, dry deposition, tributary loading, and air to water exchange, and the output flows due to sediment burial, volatilization from water to air, and transport to Lake Huron and through the Chicago Diversion were calculated, as well as flows related to the internal processes of settling, resuspension, and sediment–water diffusion. The net transfer of ∑PCBs is 1240 ± 531 kg yr –1 out of the lake. This net transfer is 46% lower than that estimated in 1994–1995. PCB concentrations in most matrices in the lake are decreasing, which drove the decline of all the individual input and output flows. Atmospheric deposition has become negligible, while volatilization from the water surface is still a major route of loss, releasing PCBs from the lake into the air. Large masses of PCBs remain in the water column and surface sediments and are likely to contribute to the future efflux of PCBs from the lake to the air.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2017

Current-use flame retardants in the water of Lake Michigan tributaries

In this study, we measured the concentrations of 65 flame retardants in water samples from five Lake Michigan tributaries. These flame retardants included organophosphate esters (OPEs), brominated flame retardants (BFRs), and Dechlorane-related compounds. A total of 59 samples, including both the particulate and the dissolved phases, were collected from the Grand, Kalamazoo, Saint Joseph, and Lower Fox rivers and from the Indiana Harbor and Ship Canal (IHSC) in 2015. OPEs were the most abundant among the targeted compounds with geometric mean concentrations ranging from 20 to 54 ng/L; OPE concentrations were comparable among the five tributaries. BFR concentrations were about 1 ng/L, and the most-abundant compounds were bis (2-ethylhexyl) tetrabromophthalate, 2-ethylhexyl 2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate, and decabromodiphenyl ether. The highest BFR concentrations were measured in either the IHSC or the Saint Joseph River. The dechlorane-related compounds were detected at low concentrations (<1 pg/L). The fraction of target compounds in the particulate phase relative to the dissolved phase varied by chemical and tended to increase with their octanol–water partition coefficient. The chemical loading from all the five tributaries into Lake Michigan were <10 kg/year for the BFRs and about 500 kg/year for the OPEs.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2017

Groundwater flow model for the Little Plover River basin in Wisconsin’s Central Sands

The Little Plover River is a groundwater-fed stream in the sand plains region of central Wisconsin. In this region, sandy sediment deposited during or soon after the last glaciation forms an important unconfined sand and gravel aquifer. This aquifer supplies water for numerous high-capacity irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells that support a thriving agricultural industry. In recent years the addition of many new wells, combined with observed diminished flows in the Little Plover and other nearby rivers, has raised concerns about the impacts of the wells on groundwater levels and on water levels and flows in nearby lakes, streams, and wetlands. Diverse stakeholder groups, including well operators, Growers, environmentalists, local land owners, and regulatory and government officials have sought a better understanding of the local groundwater-surface water system and have a shared desire to balance the water needs of the he liagricultural, industrial, and urban users with the maintenance and protection of groundwater-dependent natural resources. To help address these issues, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources requested that the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey and U.S. Geological Survey cooperatively develop a groundwater flow model that could be used to demonstrate the relationships among groundwater, surface water, and well withdrawals and also be a tool for testing and evaluating alternative water management strategies for the central sands region. Because of an abundance of previous studies, data availability, local interest, and existing regulatory constraints the model focuses on the Little Plover River watershed, but the modeling methodology developed during this study can apply to much of the larger central sands of Wisconsin. The Little Plover River groundwater flow model simulates three-dimensional groundwater movement in and around the Little Plover River basin under steady-state and transient conditions. This model explicitly includes all high-capacity wells in the model domain and simulates seasonal variations in recharge and well pumping. The model represents the Little Plover River, and other significant streams and drainage ditches in the model domain, as fully connected to the groundwater system, computes stream base flow resulting from groundwater discharge, and routes the flow along the stream channel. A separate soil-water-balance (SWB) model was used to develop groundwater recharge arrays as input for the groundwater flow model. The SWB model uses topography, soils, land use, and climatic data to estimate recharge as deep drainage from the soil zone. The SWB model explicitly includes recharge originating as irrigation water, and computes irrigation using techniques similar to those used by local irrigation operators. The groundwater flow model uses the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW modeling code which is freely available, widely accepted, and commonly used by the groundwater community. The groundwater flow model and the SWB model use identical high-resolution numerical grids having model cells 100 feet on a side, with physical properties assigned to each grid cell. This grid allows accurate geographic placement of wells, streams, and other model features. The 3-dimensional grid has three layers; layers 1 and 2 represent the sand and gravel aquifer and layer 3 represents the underlying sandstone. The distribution of material properties in the model (hydraulic conductivity, aquifer thickness, etc.) comes from previous published geologic studies of the region, updated by calibration to recent streamflow and groundwater level data. The SWB model operates on a daily time step. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to monthly stress periods with time steps ranging from 1 to 16 days. More detailed time discretization is possible. The groundwater model was calibrated to water-level and streamflow data collected during 2013 and 2014 by adjusting model parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, storage, and recharge) until the model produced a conditionally optimal fit between field observations and model output, subject to consistency with previously published geologic studies. Calibration was performed under both steady and transient conditions, and used a sophisticated parameter-estimation procedure (PEST) for the calibration process and to identify important model parameters. For the Little Plover River, the two most important parameters are the global recharge multiplier and the hydraulic conductivity of the stream bed. The calibrated model produces water-level and mass-balance results that are consistent with field observations and previous studies of the area. The completed model is a powerful tool for testing and demonstrating alternative water-management scenarios. Example model applications described in this report include simulating how the cumulative impacts of pumping and land-use change have affected average baseflow in the Little Plover River. Depletion-potential mapping represents a method for predicting which wells and well locations have the greatest impact on nearby surface-water resources. The completed model is publicly available, along with a companion user’s guide to assist with its operation, at http://wgnhs.org/littleplover- river-groundwater-model.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2016

Identification of Marbon in the Indiana Harbor and Ship Canal

Marbon is isomeric with Dechlorane Plus (DP). Both are produced by the Diels− Alder condensation of hexachlorocyclopentadiene with cyclic dienes, and both have elemental compositions of C18H12Cl12. Dechlorane Plus is commonly found in the environment throughout the world, but Marbon has, so far, only been detected at low levels in one sediment core collected near the mouth of the Niagara River in Lake Ontario. Here we report on the concentrations of Marbon and anti-DP in 59 water samples from five Lake Michigan tributaries [the Grand, Kalamazoo, St. Joseph, and Lower Fox Rivers, and the Indiana Harbor and Ship Canal (IHSC)], 10 surface sediment samples from the IHSC, and 2 surface sediment samples from the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal. Three Marbon diastereomers were detected in the water and sediment samples from the IHSC, which is far from the location of its previous detection in Lake Ontario. The sum of the concentrations of the three Marbons was greater in the water from the IHSC (N = 11, median =150 pg/L) compared to those in water from the other four tributaries (N = 11−13, medians =0.9−2.0 pg/L). Marbon concentrations in sediment samples from the IHSC were up to 450 ng/g dry weight. Anti-DP was also measured for comparison. Its concentrations were not significantly different among the water samples, but its sediment concentrations in the IHSC were significantly correlated with those of Marbon. The source of Marbon contamination in the IHSC is not clear.

Indiana↗

USGS2016

FishVis, A regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change in the Great Lakes Region

Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish species within each stream reach in the study area. Downscaled climate data from general circulation models were integrated with the fish species occurrence models to project fish species occurrence under future climate conditions. The 13 fish species represented three ecological guilds associated with water temperature (cold, cool, and warm), and the species were distributed in streams across the Great Lakes region. Vulnerability (loss of species) and opportunity (gain of species) scores were calculated for all stream reaches by evaluating changes in fish species occurrence from present-day to future climate conditions. The 13 fish species included 4 cold-water species, 5 cool-water species, and 4 warm-water species. Presently, the 4 cold-water species occupy from 15 percent (55,000 kilometers [km]) to 35 percent (130,000 km) of the total stream length (369,215 km) across the study area; the 5 cool-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 58 percent (215,000 km); and the 4 warm-water species, from 9 percent (33,000 km) to 38 percent (141,000 km). Fish models linked to projections from 13 downscaled climate models projected that in the mid to late 21st century (2046–65 and 2081–2100, respectively) habitats suitable for all 4 cold-water species and 4 of 5 cool-water species under present-day conditions will decline as much as 86 percent and as little as 33 percent, and habitats suitable for all 4 warm-water species will increase as much as 33 percent and as little as 7 percent. This report documents the approach and data used to predict and project fish species occurrence under present-day and future climate conditions for 13 lotic fish species in the United States Great Lakes Basin. A Web-based decision support mapping application termed “FishVis” was developed to provide a means to integrate, visualize, query, and download the results of these projected climate-driven responses and help inform conservation planning efforts within the region.

Great Lakes Region↗

USGS2016

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

A groundwater/surface-water model was constructed and calibrated for the Black Earth Creek watershed in south-central Wisconsin. The model was then run to simulate scenarios representing common societal concerns in the basin, focusing on maintaining a cold-water resource in an urbanizing fringe near its upper stream reaches and minimizing downstream flooding. Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, many hydrologic models simplistically simulate feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system; however, computer models can now routinely and iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems—albeit with longer model run times. In this study, preliminary calibrations of uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to form the starting point for final calibration of one transient computer simulation that iteratively couples groundwater and surface water. The computer code GSFLOW (Groundwater/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, and streams. The coupled GSFLOW model was run on a daily time step during water years 1985–2007. Early simulation times (1985–2000) were used for spin-up to make the simulation results less sensitive to initial conditions specified; the spin-up period was not included in the model calibration. Model calibration used observed heads, streamflows, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements from 2000 to 2007 for history matching. Calibration was performed by using the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model. SNTEMP was used to simulate daily stream temperature in selected stream reaches in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2005. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the years 2010 through 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the simulation period showed increases in maximum and minimum air temperature. Scenarios of future precipitation, however, did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased with time for both temperature and precipitation. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snowmelt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions, with relatively less drying expected in groundwater-fed systems. Groundwater discharge in the current upper cold-water reaches of Black Earth Creek is expected to decrease; flooding in downstream reaches may appreciably increase. The magnitude of changes in forecasted flow and associated groundwater/surface-water interaction is dependent on the General Circulation Model and emission scenario chosen. Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change in Wisconsin

Expected climatic changes in air temperature and precipitation patterns across the State of Wisconsin may alter future stream temperature and flow regimes. As a consequence of flow and temperature changes, the composition and distribution of fish species assemblages are expected to change. In an effort to gain a better understanding of how climatic changes may affect stream temperature, an approach was developed to predict and project daily summertime stream temperature under current and future climate conditions for 94,341 stream kilometers across Wisconsin. The approach uses a combination of static landscape characteristics and dynamic time-series climatic variables as input for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model integrated with a Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) Model. Future climate scenarios are based on output from downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). The SWB model provided a means to estimate the temporal variability in groundwater recharge and provided a mechanism to evaluate the effect of changing air temperature and precipitation on groundwater recharge and soil moisture. The Integrated Soil-Water-Balance and Artificial Neural Network version 1 (SWB-ANNv1) Model was used to simulate daily summertime stream temperature under current (1990–2008) climate and explained 76 percent of the variation in the daily mean based on validation at 67 independent sites. Results were summarized as July mean water temperature, and individual stream segments were classified by thermal class (cold, cold transition, warm transition, and warm) for comparison of current (1990–2008) with future climate conditions. Integrating the SWB Model with the ANN Model provided a mechanism by which downscaled global or regional climate model results could be used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on future stream temperature on a daily time step. To address future climate scenarios, statistically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from 10 GCMs and 2 time periods were used with the SWB-ANNv1 Model to project future stream temperature. Projections of future stream temperatures at mid- (2046–65) and late- (2081–2100) 21st century showed the July mean water temperature increasing for all stream segments with about 80 percent of stream kilometers increasing by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (°C) by mid-century and about 99 percent increasing by 1 to 3 °C by late-century. Projected changes in stream temperatures also affected changes in thermal classes with a loss in the total amount of cold-water, cold-transition, and warm-transition thermal habitat and a gain in warm-water and very warm thermal habitat for both mid- and late-21st century time periods. The greatest losses occurred for cold-water streams and the greatest gains for warm-water streams, with a contraction of cold-water streams in the Driftless Area of western and southern Wisconsin and an expansion of warm-water streams across northern Wisconsin. Results of this study suggest that such changes will affect the composition of fish assemblages, with a loss of suitable habitat for cold-water fishes and gain in suitable habitat for warm-water fishes. In the end, these projected changes in thermal habitat attributable to climate may result in a net loss of fisheries, because many warm-water species may be unable to colonize habitats formerly occupied by cold-water species because of other habitat limitations (e.g., stream size, gradient). Although projected stream temperatures may vary greatly, depending on the emissions scenario and models used, the results presented in this report represent one possibility. The relative change in stream temperature can provide useful information for planning for potential climate impacts to aquatic ecosystems. Model results can be used to help identify vulnerabilities of streams to climate change, guide stream surveys and thermal classifications, prioritize the allocation of scarce financial resources, identify approaches to climate adaptation to best protect and enhance resiliency in stream thermal habitat, and provide information to make quantitative assessments of statewide stream resources.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2015

Potential groundwater recharge for the State of Minnesota using the Soil-Water-Balance model, 1996-2010

Groundwater recharge is one of the most difficult components of a water budget to ascertain, yet is an important boundary condition necessary for the quantification of water resources. In Minnesota, improved estimates of recharge are necessary because approximately 75 percent of drinking water and 90 percent of agricultural irrigation water in Minnesota are supplied from groundwater. The water that is withdrawn must be supplied by some combination of (1) increased recharge, (2) decreased discharge to streams, lakes, and other surface-water bodies, and (3) removal of water that was stored in the system. Recent pressure on groundwater resources has highlighted the need to provide more accurate recharge estimates for various tools that can assess the sustainability of long-term water use. As part of this effort, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, used the Soil-Water-Balance model to calculate gridded estimates of potential groundwater recharge across Minnesota for 1996‒2010 at a 1-kilometer (0.621-mile) resolution. The potential groundwater recharge estimates calculated for Minnesota from the Soil-Water Balance model included gridded values (1-kilometer resolution) of annual mean estimates (that is, the means for individual years from 1996 through 2010) and mean annual estimates (that is, the mean for the 15-year period 1996−2010). The Soil-Water-Balance model uses a modified Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance approach, with components of the soil-water balance calculated on a daily basis. A key advantage of this approach includes the use of commonly available geographic information system data layers that incorporate land cover, soil properties, and daily meteorological data to produce temporally and spatially variable gridded estimates of potential recharge. The Soil-Water-Balance model was calibrated by using a combination of parameter estimation techniques, making manual adjustments of model parameters, and using parameter values from previously published Soil-Water-Balance models. Each calibration simulation compared the potential recharge estimate from the model against base-flow estimates derived from three separate hydrograph separation techniques. A total of 35 Minnesota watersheds were selected for the model calibration. Meteorological data necessary for the model included daily precipitation, minimum daily temperature, and maximum daily temperature. All of the meteorological data were provided by the Daymet dataset, which included daily continuous surfaces of key climatological data. Land-cover data were provided by the 2001 and 2006 National Land Cover Database: the 2001 classification was used from 1994 through 2003, and the 2006 classification was used from 2004 through 2010. Soil data used in the model included hydrologic soils group and the available soil-water capacity. These soil data were obtained from the Natural Resources Conservation Service Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database and the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database. The statewide mean annual potential recharge rate from 1996–2010 was 4.9 inches per year. Potential recharge estimates increased from west to east across Minnesota. The mean annual potential recharge estimates across Minnesota at a 1-km resolution for the overall simulation period (1996–2010) ranged from less than 0.1 to 17.8 inches per year. Some of the lowest potential recharge rates for the simulation period were in the Red River of the North Basin of northwestern Minnesota, and generally were between 1.0 and 1.5 inches per year. The highest potential recharge rates were in northeastern Minnesota and the Anoka Sand Plain in central Minnesota. Eighty-eight percent of the potential recharge rates (by grid cell) were between 2 and 8 inches per year from 1996–2010. Only about 3 percent of all the potential recharge estimates (by grid cell) were less than 2 inches per year, and 9 percent of estimates were greater than 8 inches per year. On an annual basis, however, potential recharge rates were as high as 27.2 inches per year. The highest annual mean recharge estimate across the State was for 2010, and the lowest mean recharge estimate was for 2003. Although precipitation variability partially explained the annual differences in potential recharge estimates, precipitation alone did not account for these differences, and other factors such as antecedent moisture conditions likely were important. Also, because precipitation gradients across the State can vary from year to year, the dominant land-cover class and hydrologic soil group combinations for a particular region had a large effect on the resulting potential recharge value. During 1996–2010, April had the greatest monthly mean potential recharge compared to all other months, accounting for a mean of 30 percent of annual potential recharge in this single month.

Minnesota↗

USGS2014

Simulated and observed 2010 flood-water elevations in selected river reaches in the Moshassuck and Woonasquatucket River Basins, Rhode Island

Heavy persistent rains from late February through March 2010 caused severe flooding and set, or nearly set, peaks of record for streamflows and water levels at many long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Rhode Island. In response to this flood, hydraulic models were updated for selected reaches covering about 33 river miles in Moshassuck and Woonasquatucket River Basins from the most recent approved Federal Emergency Management Agency flood insurance study (FIS) to simulate water-surface elevations (WSEs) from specified flows and boundary conditions. Reaches modeled include the main stem of the Moshassuck River and its main tributary, the West River, and three tributaries to the West River—Upper Canada Brook, Lincoln Downs Brook, and East Branch West River; and the main stem of the Woonasquatucket River. All the hydraulic models were updated to Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) version 4.1.0 and incorporate new field-survey data at structures, high-resolution land-surface elevation data, and flood flows from a related study. The models were used to simulate steady-state WSEs at the 1- and 2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flows, which is the estimated AEP of the 2010 flood in the Moshassuck River Basin and the Woonasquatucket River, respectively. The simulated WSEs were compared to the high-water mark (HWM) elevation data obtained in these basins in a related study following the March–April 2010 flood, which included 18 HWMs along the Moshassuck River and 45 HWMs along the Woonasquatucket River. Differences between the 2010 HWMs and the simulated 2- and 1-percent AEP WSEs from the FISs and the updated models developed in this study varied along the reach. Most differences could be attributed to the magnitude of the 2- and 1-percent AEP flows used in the FIS and updated model flows. Overall, the updated model and the FIS WSEs were not appreciably different when compared to the observed 2010 HWMs along the Woonasquatucket and Moshassuck Rivers.

Rhode Island↗

USGS2013

Temporal and spatial variability of groundwater recharge on Jeju Island, Korea

Estimates of groundwater recharge spatial and temporal variability are essential inputs to groundwater flow models that are used to test groundwater availability under different management and climate conditions. In this study, a soil water balance analysis was conducted to estimate groundwater recharge on the island of Jeju, Korea, for baseline, drought, and climate-land use change scenarios. The Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code was used to compute groundwater recharge and other water balance components at a daily time step using a 100 m grid cell size for an 18-year baseline scenario (1992–2009). A 10-year drought scenario was selected from historical precipitation trends (1961–2009), while the climate-land use change scenario was developed using late 21st century climate projections and a change in urban land use. Mean annual recharge under the baseline, drought, and climate-land use scenarios was estimated at 884, 591, and 788 mm, respectively. Under the baseline scenario, mean annual recharge was within the range of previous estimates (825–959 mm) and only slightly lower than the mean of 902 mm. As a fraction of mean annual rainfall, mean annual recharge was computed as only 42% and less than previous estimates of 44–48%. The maximum historical reported annual pumping rate of 241 × 10 6 m 3 equates to 15% of baseline recharge, which is within the range of 14–16% computed from earlier studies. The model does not include a mechanism to account for additional sources of groundwater recharge, such as fog drip, irrigation, and artificial recharge, and may also overestimate evapotranspiration losses. Consequently, the results presented in this study represent a conservative estimate of total recharge.

Jeju↗

USGS2013

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2012

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion: TSPROC, a general time-series processor to assist in model calibration and result summarization

The TSPROC ( T ime S eries PROC essor) computer software uses a simple scripting language to process and analyze time series. It was developed primarily to assist in the calibration of environmental models. The software is designed to perform calculations on time-series data commonly associated with surface-water models, including calculation of flow volumes, transformation by means of basic arithmetic operations, and generation of seasonal and annual statistics and hydrologic indices. TSPROC can also be used to generate some of the key input files required to perform parameter optimization by means of the PEST ( P arameter EST imation) computer software. Through the use of TSPROC, the objective function for use in the model-calibration process can be focused on specific components of a hydrograph.

Techniques and Methods↗