Clarifying the role of the resist–accept–direct framework in supporting resource management planning processes
No abstract available.
Conservation Biology↗
Geology topics
Stephen Jackson
Publications and source records attributed to Stephen Jackson.
Vegetation type conversion in the US Southwest: Frontline observations and management responses
Forest and nonforest ecosystems of the western United States are experiencing major transformations in response to land-use change, climate warming, and their interactive effects with wildland fire. Some ecosystems are transitioning to persistent alternative types, hereafter called “vegetation type conversion” (VTC). VTC is one of the most pressing management issues in the southwestern US, yet current strategies to intervene and address change often use trial-and-error approaches devised after the fact. To better understand how to manage VTC, we gathered managers, scientists, and practitioners from across the southwestern US to collect their experiences with VTC challenges, management responses, and outcomes.
Arizona, California, Colorado, New Mexico↗
A new approach to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model-based biodiversity projections for conservation policy formulation
Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.
BioScience↗
More than one way to kill a spruce forest: The role of fire and climate in the late-glacial termination of spruce woodlands across the southern Great Lakes
In the southern Great Lakes Region, North America, between 19,000 and 8,000 years ago, temperatures rose by 2.5–6.5°C and spruce Picea forests/woodlands were replaced by mixed-deciduous or pine Pinus forests. The demise of Picea forests/woodlands during the last deglaciation offers a model system for studying how changing climate and disturbance regimes interact to trigger declines of dominant species and vegetation-type conversions. The role of rising temperatures in driving the regional demise of Picea forests/woodlands is widely accepted, but the role of fire is poorly understood. We studied the effect of changing fire activity on Picea declines and rates of vegetation composition change using fossil pollen and macroscopic charcoal from five high-resolution lake sediment records. The decline of Picea forests/woodlands followed two distinct patterns. At two sites (Stotzel-Leis and Silver Lake), fire activity reached maximum levels during the declines and both charcoal accumulation rates and fire frequency were significantly and positively associated with vegetation composition change rates. At these sites, Picea declined to low levels by 14 kyr BP and was largely replaced by deciduous hardwood taxa like ash Fraxinus , hop-hornbeam/hornbeam Ostrya/Carpinus and elm Ulmus . However, this ecosystem transition was reversible, as Picea re-established at lower abundances during the Younger Dryas. At the other three sites, there was no statistical relationship between charcoal accumulation and vegetation composition change rates, though fire frequency was a significant predictor of rates of vegetation change at Appleman Lake and Triangle Lake Bog. At these sites, Picea declined gradually over several thousand years, was replaced by deciduous hardwoods and high levels of Pinus and did not re-establish during the Younger Dryas. Synthesis . Fire does not appear to have been necessary for the climate-driven loss of Picea woodlands during the last deglaciation, but increased fire frequency accelerated the decline of Picea in some areas by clearing the way for thermophilous deciduous hardwood taxa. Hence, warming and intensified fire regimes likely interacted in the past to cause abrupt losses of coniferous forests and could again in the coming decades.
Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗
Responding to ecosystem transformation: Resist, accept, or direct?
Ecosystem transformation can be defined as the emergence of a self‐organizing, self‐sustaining, ecological or social–ecological system that deviates from prior ecosystem structure and function. These transformations are occurring across the globe; consequently, a static view of ecosystem processes is likely no longer sufficient for managing fish, wildlife, and other species. We present a framework that encompasses three strategies for fish and wildlife managers dealing with ecosystems vulnerable to transformation. Specifically, managers can resist change and strive to maintain existing ecosystem composition, structure, and function; accept transformation when it is not feasible to resist change or when changes are deemed socially acceptable; or direct change to a future ecosystem configuration that would yield desirable outcomes. Choice of a particular option likely hinges on anticipating future change, while also acknowledging that temporal and spatial scales, recent history and current state of the system, and magnitude of change can factor into the decision. This suite of management strategies can be implemented using a structured approach of learning and adapting as ecosystems change.
Fisheries↗
Comparison of settlement-era vegetation reconstructions for STEPPS and REVEALS pollen–vegetation models in the northeastern United States
Reconstructions of prehistoric vegetation composition help establish natural baselines, variability, and trajectories of forest dynamics before and during the emergence of intensive anthropogenic land use. Pollen–vegetation models (PVMs) enable such reconstructions from fossil pollen assemblages using process-based representations of taxon-specific pollen production and dispersal. However, several PVMs and variants now exist, and the sensitivity of vegetation inferences to PVM selection, variant, and calibration domain is poorly understood. Here, we compare the reconstructions, parameter estimates, and structure of a Bayesian hierarchical PVM, STEPPS, both to observations and to REVEALS, a widely used PVM, for the pre–Euro-American settlement-era vegetation in the northeastern United States (NEUS). We also compare NEUS-based STEPPS parameter estimates to those for the upper midwestern United States (UMW). Both PVMs predict the observed macroscale patterns of vegetation composition in the NEUS; however, reconstructions of minor taxa are less accurate and predictions for some taxa differ between PVMs. These differences can be attributed to intermodel differences in structure and parameter estimates. Estimates of pollen productivity from STEPPS broadly agree with estimates produced for use in REVEALS, while comparison between pollen dispersal parameter estimates shows no significant relationship. STEPPS parameter estimates are similar between the UMW and NEUS, suggesting that STEPPS parameter estimates are transferable between floristically similar regions and scales.
Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗
Deglacial temperature controls on no-analog community establishment in the Great Lakes Region
Understanding the drivers of vegetation dynamics and no-analog communities in eastern North America is hampered by a scarcity of independent temperature indicators. We present a new branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) temperature record from Bonnet Lake, Ohio (18 to 8 ka) and report uncertainty estimates based on Bayesian linear regression and bootstrapping. We also reanalyze a previously published brGDGT record from Silver Lake, Ohio, using improved chromatographic methods. All pollen- and brGDGT-based temperature reconstructions showed qualitatively similar deglacial trends but varying magnitudes. Separating 5- and 6- methyl brGDGTs resulted in substantially lower estimates of deglacial temperature variations (6.4 °C) than inferred from earlier brGDGT methods and pollen (11.8 °C, 12.0 °C respectively). Similar trends among proxies suggest good fidelity of brGDGTs to temperature, despite calibration uncertainties. At both sites, the rise and decline of no-analog communities closely track brGDGT-inferred temperatures, with a lag of 0 to 150 years. The timing of temperature and ecological events varies between Bonnet and Silver Lakes, likely due to age model uncertainties. Climate sensitivity analyses indicate a linear sensitivity of vegetation composition to temperature variations, albeit noisy and significant only with a 500-year bin. The formation of no-analog plant communities in the upper Midwest is closely linked to late-glacial warming, but other factors, such as temperature seasonality or end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions, remain viable.
Great Lakes Region↗
Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change
Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species’ conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.
Science↗
Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition
Forest ecosystems in eastern North America were in flux over the last several thousand years, well before Euro-American land clearance and the 20th-century onset of anthropogenic climate change. However, the magnitude and uncertainty of prehistoric vegetation change have been difficult to quantify because of the multiple ecological, dispersal, and sedimentary processes that govern the relationship between forest composition and fossil pollen assemblages. Here we extend STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal pollen-vegetation model, to estimate changes in forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States from about 2000 to 200 years ago. Using this approach, we identify areas of statistically and ecologically significant change. Between 2000 and 200 years ago, forest composition significantly changed across broad regions of north-central Wisconsin and Minnesota. Rates of compositional change varied spatially, and can be linked to previously reported events. The single largest change is the infilling of Tsuga canadensis in northern Wisconsin over the past 2000 years. Despite this range in-filling, the range limit of T. canadensis was largely stable, with modest expansion westward. The regional ecotone between temperate hardwood forests and northern mixed hardwood/conifer forests shifted southwestward by 15-20 km in Minnesota and Northwestern Wisconsin. Fraxinus, Ulmus, and other mesic hardwoods expanded in the Big Woods region of southern Minnesota. However, some areas showed no significant change, suggesting high complexity in the spatiotemporal patterns of past forest dynamics. The increasing density of paleoecological data networks and advances in statistical modeling approaches now enables the confident detection of subtle but significant changes in forest composition over the last 2000 years.
Minnesota, Wisconsin↗
Modern pollen-assemblages data from small lakes paired with local forest-composition data in northeastern United States
For the past century, pollen analysis has served as a primary tool for inferring past changes in vegetation composition and structure (Birks et al. 2016, Edwards et al. 2017). Pollen-based inferences are supported by empirical studies comparing modern pollen assemblages with modern vegetation composition. In one approach, pollen abundances (usually percentages) for individual taxa are compared directly with quantitative estimates of abundance in surrounding vegetation (Jackson 1994, Davis 2000). This approach has been applied most frequently using spatially extensive but coarse-scale forest inventory data (Webb et al. 1981, Bradshaw and Webb 1985, Prentice & Webb 1986, Prentice et al. 1987, Paciorek & McLachlan 2009, Dawson et al. 2016, Kujawa et al. 2016). In these studies, forest composition cannot usually be estimated accurately within a 1- to 10 km radius of the individual sites owing to limited spatial density of forest inventory data. A few studies have compared vegetation composition within 50-100 m of pollen-sampling sites, but in these cases the pollen is from forest-floor assemblages (Bradshaw 1981, Jackson & Wong 1994, Jackson & Kearsley 1998) or from small forest hollows (Calcote 1995, 1998, Parshall & Calcote 2001). Largely lacking are pollen assemblage data from lake sediments paired with local forest composition, measured within 100 to 1000 m of the lake margins (Jackson 1990). This absence represents a substantial gap in ability to understand and model pollen-vegetation relationships, because lakes are the primary source of fossil-pollen sequences worldwide, and because the leptokurtic nature of pollen dispersal ensures that local vegetation has an important effect on pollen composition in sediments (Jackson 1994, Sugita 1994, 2007a, 2007b, Jackson & Lyford 1999). Here, I present a data set pairing modern pollen assemblages from 33 small lakes in the forested northeastern United States (Fig. 1) with forest composition data measured within 20, 50, 100, 500, and 1000 metres of the lake margins. This data set incorporates most of the sites used in Jackson (1990), adding 16 new sites and delivering the vegetation data by species in absolute units (i.e., total basal area), which allows various weightings and transformations to be applied. The data set should be of value to paleoecologists and forest ecologists in understanding, modeling, and validating the pollen-vegetation relationships that are at the heart of paleoecological inference.
Northeastern United States↗
Comparing and improving methods for reconstructing peatland water-table depth from testate amoebae
Proxies that use changes in the composition of ecological communities to reconstruct temporal changes in an environmental covariate are commonly used in paleoclimatology and paleolimnology. Existing methods, such as weighted averaging and modern analog technique, relate compositional data to the covariate in very simple ways, and different methods are seldom compared systematically. We present a new Bayesian model that better represents the underlying data and the complexity in the relationships between species’ abundances and a paleoenvironmental covariate. Using testate amoeba-based reconstructions of water-table depth as a test case, we systematically compare new and existing models in a cross-validation experiment on a large training dataset from North America. We then apply the different models to a new 7500-year record of testate amoeba assemblages from Caribou Bog in Maine and compare the resulting water-table depth reconstructions. We find that Bayesian models represent an improvement over existing methods in three key ways: more complete use of the underlying compositional data, full and meaningful treatment of uncertainty, and clear paths toward methodological improvements. Furthermore, we highlight how developing and systematically comparing methods leads to an improved understanding of the proxy system. This paper focuses on testate amoebae and water-table depth, but the framework and ideas are widely applicable to other proxies based on compositional data.
Continental United States and Alaska↗
Late-Quaternary vegetation, climate, and fire history of the Southeast Atlantic Coastal Plain based on a 30,000-yr multiple-proxy record from White Pond, South Carolina (USA)
The patterns and drivers of late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in the southeastern United States are poorly understood due to low site density, problematic chronologies, and a paucity of independent paleoclimate proxy records. We present a well-dated (15 accelerator mass spectrometry 14 C dates) 30,000-yr record from White Pond, South Carolina that consists of high-resolution analyses of fossil pollen, macroscopic charcoal, and Sporormiella spores, and an independent paleotemperature reconstruction based on branched glycerol dialkyl tetraethers. Between 30,000 and 20,000 cal yr BP, open Pinus-Picea forest grew under cold and dry conditions; elevated Quercus before 26,000 cal yr BP, however, suggest warmer conditions in the Southeast before the last glacial maximum, possibly corresponding to regionally warmer conditions associated with Heinrich event H2. Warming between 19,700 and 10,400 cal yr BP was accompanied by a transition from conifer-dominated to mesic hardwood forest. Sporormiella spores were not detected and charcoal was low during the late glacial period, suggesting megaherbivore grazers and fire were not locally important agents of vegetation change. Pinus returned to dominance during the Holocene, with step-like increases in Pinus at 10,400 and 6400 cal yr BP, while charcoal abundance increased tenfold, likely due to increased biomass burning associated with warmer conditions. Low-intensity surface fires increased after 1200 cal yr BP, possibly related to the establishment of the Mississippian culture in the Southeast.
South Carolina↗
Provenance of invaders has scale-dependent impacts in a changing wetland ecosystem
Exotic species are associated with a variety of impacts on biodiversity, but it is unclear whether impacts of exotic species differ from those of native species with similar growth forms or native species invading disturbed sites. We compared presence and abundance of native and exotic invaders with changes in wetland plant species diversity over a 28-year period by re-surveying 22 ponds to identify factors correlated with observed changes. We also compared communities found within dense patches of native and exotic emergent species with similar habits. Within patches, we found no categorical diversity differences between areas dominated by native or exotic emergent species. At the pond scale, the cover of the exotic grass Phragmites australis best predicted change in diversity and evenness over time, likely owing to its significant increase in coverage over the study period. These changes in diversity and evenness were strongest in younger, less successionally-advanced ponds. Changes associated with cover of P. australis in these ponds were not consistent with expected diversity decreases, but instead with a dampening of diversity gains, such that the least-invaded ponds increased in diversity the most over the study period. There were more mixed effects on evenness, ranging from a reduction in evenness gains to actual losses of evenness in the ponds with highest invader cover. In this wetland complex, the habit, origin and invasiveness of species contribute to diversity responses in a scale- and context-dependent fashion. Future efforts to preserve diversity should focus on preventing the arrival and spread of invaders that have the potential to cover large areas at high densities, regardless of their origin. Future studies should also investigate more thoroughly how changes in diversity associated with species invasions are impacted by other ongoing ecosystem changes.
NeoBiota↗