Geology topics

Stephanie R. Penk

Publications and source records attributed to Stephanie R. Penk.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

A system dynamics model to understand the integrated ecological and human dimension aspects of wildlife health and disease management

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) presents an ongoing challenge for the management of deer populations and sustaining harvest opportunities across North America. Existing disease models often fail to fully capture the complex interplay between disease dynamics, host ecology, and socio-economic factors. We developed a comprehensive system dynamics (SD) model that integrates demographic, epidemiological, ecological, and socio-economic processes within a single model to more fully characterize the complex network of causal feedbacks throughout the system. The model was calibrated using a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior knowledge to generate biologically interpretable outcomes, even with sparse data. For estimating the joint posterior distribution of model parameters, we leveraged time series of deer abundance, harvest composition, genetic profiles, CWD surveillance, and hunter demographics and behavior. Model outputs reproduced key system behaviors, including observed CWD prevalence trends, deer population dynamics, and hunter license purchasing patterns. Model predictions were most sensitive to parameters governing initial deer population size and recruitment. While model predictions generally aligned with observed data, discrepancies in early CWD detection and overestimation of the reactivation of long-inactive hunters reflect data limitations and modeling challenges. Key results suggest that indirect transmission is necessary to explain observed prevalence, that transmission is moderately density-dependent, and that observed population-level genetic shifts driven by CWD may play a role in transmission and progression. The SD modelling approach enabled estimation of difficult-to-measure parameters and identified potential leverage points for management—such as prioritizing increasing participation in antlerless harvest of existing hunters over the recruitment of new hunters. This integrated modeling approach offers a flexible foundation for adaptive wildlife disease management and emphasizes the value of unifying biological and human dimension processes to better inform effective, evidence-based policy.

BioRxiv↗

USGS2023

A body composition model with multiple storage compartments for polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Climate warming is rapidly altering Arctic ecosystems. Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) need sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals, but increased sea-ice loss is lengthening periods when bears are without access to primary hunting habitat. During periods of food scarcity, survival depends on the energy that a bear has stored in body reserves, termed storage energy, making this a key metric in predictive models assessing climate change impacts on polar bears. Here, we developed a body composition model for polar bears that estimates storage energy while accounting for changes in storage tissue composition. We used data of dissected polar bears ( n = 31) to link routinely collected field measures of total body mass and straight-line body length to the body composition of individual bears, described in terms of structural mass and two storage compartments, adipose and muscle. We then estimated the masses of metabolizable proteins and lipids within these storage compartments, giving total storage energy. We tested this multi-storage model by using it to predict changes in the lipid stores from an independent dataset of wild polar bears ( n = 36) that were recaptured 8–200 days later. Using length and mass measurements, our model successfully predicted direct measurements of lipid changes via isotopic dilutions (root mean squared error of 14.5 kg). Separating storage into two compartments, and allowing the molecular composition of storage to vary, provides new avenues for quantifying energy stores of individuals across their life cycle. The multi-storage body composition model thus provides a basis for further exploring energetic costs of physiological processes that contribute to individual survival and reproductive success. Given bioenergetic models are increasingly used as a tool to predict individual fitness and population dynamics, our approach for estimating individual energy stores could be applicable to a wide range of species.

Article↗

USGS2023

Lactation performance in polar bears is associated with fasting time and energetic state

Females must continually make resource allocation decisions because of fitness trade-offs between self-maintenance and investment in current offspring, yet factors underpinning these decisions are unresolved. Polar bears Ursus maritimus face considerable allocation challenges when seasonal sea-ice melt precludes access to prey for several months, and females rely solely on energy stores to cover their own energetic needs and provision offspring. We tested how female polar bears regulate lactation during onshore fasting (i.e. capital breeding) and determined the consequences of moderated lactation for females and cubs. Overall, milk energy declined, and lactation was more likely to cease with longer time fasting. Lactation was partially mediated by maternal energetic state and depended on litter characteristics. Milk energy declined more sharply with fasting time (~2.6 times more strongly) in females with 2 offspring compared to those with 1. Females with cubs-of-the-year produced higher energy milk than those with yearlings, and their milk energy also increased more strongly with maternal energy density. Milk energy declines benefited females via reduced depletion of maternal energy reserves, but cub growth decreased. Altered lactation investment likely has consequences for both female survival and the fate of offspring, which could scale up to influence population dynamics. Given that Arctic warming means polar bears across much of their range will experience longer periods without access to primary prey, our results underscore how lactation will likely become increasingly compromised.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗