Geology topics

Seth Herbst

Publications and source records attributed to Seth Herbst.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Reevaluation of an adaptive management framework for invasive Grass Carp within Lake Erie

Objective Response efforts to control invasive species frequently require making decisions in the face of substantial uncertainty. Adaptive management, which emphasizes learning during the process of managing, can be useful in cases where uncertainty impedes the decision-making process. Here, we describe how technical and institutional learning led to reformulating decision-making elements, known as double-loop learning, and how uncertainty stemming from a lack of knowledge influenced the selection of alternative strategies in an ongoing adaptive management process for invasive Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella in Lake Erie. Methods When response efforts began, little was known about the population dynamics, ecology, and biology of Grass Carp within the lake. The availability of funding for sustained response efforts was also unknown. A network population model was constructed that relied heavily on values and estimates from limited data to project adult Grass Carp abundance in Lake Erie and evaluate the ability of various response strategies to achieve the desired objectives. After this initial assessment, the collection of new information was emphasized as response efforts increased to aid future assessments. With this expanded knowledge and including additional input from stakeholders, we modified the population model, evaluated new response scenarios, refined objectives, and examined the influence of uncertainty (parameter and expert opinion) on Grass Carp response efforts. Results Under uncertainty of population model parameters and expert opinion, the value-of-information analysis revealed that uncertainties in spawning deterrent efficacy, survival, and the underlying stock–recruitment relationship were important and could change the preferred decision. The efficiency of spawning deterrents influenced the preferred decision outcome among alternative strategies, particularly when >80% of fish were allowed to pass and spawn, indicating that a deterrent may not be worth implementing if passing rates are above this threshold. Conclusions We thereby demonstrate the benefits for invasive species management programs of implementing learning and resolving uncertainties within an adaptive management framework to improve decision making.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2024

Assessing grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) occupancy and detection probability within Lake Erie from environmental DNA

Grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ), an invasive cyprinid within the Laurentian Great Lakes, is naturally reproducing in several Lake Erie tributaries, which has raised concerns of the species’ spread throughout Lake Erie and the other Great Lakes. Knowledge of the recent invasion extent outside of the western basin of Lake Erie, particularly in eastern tributaries and nearshore waters, is limited. Understanding the invasion extent would improve the efficacy of ongoing coordinated multi-agency control efforts. Molecular tools, such as environmental DNA (eDNA), have shown promise for early detection of aquatic invasive species. In this study, water samples (N = 476) were collected for grass carp eDNA monthly between May and November in 2018 and 2019, at three sites in the Michigan waters of Lake Erie and the Detroit River. We fit Bayesian multi-scale occupancy models to determine differences in eDNA capture and detection probability among grass carp qPCR assays, sampling sites, and across time. To determine whether grass carp were physically present, and to validate eDNA samples, we quantified recent grass carp presence in sampled areas using an existing acoustic telemetry and field sampling framework. Our results indicate that grass carp eDNA capture probability differed among sites, but there was no difference among months. Positive grass carp eDNA detections were observed across multiple months at each site, with 69% of site-specific sampling events testing positive for grass carp eDNA on at least one assay and replicate. The majority (65%) of weeks where positive eDNA sampling detections occurred also concurrently had one or more grass carp detected via acoustic telemetry 1–6 days prior. Our results highlight the potential utility of using eDNA to monitor the invasion extent of grass carp within the nearshore waters of Lake Erie. However, further evaluation of the factors that influence grass carp eDNA characteristics among sites within Lake Erie are needed to determine its efficacy for surveillance protocols by natural resource management agencies.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2022

Field application of carbon dioxide as a behavioral control method for invasive red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) in southeastern Michigan water retention ponds

This study evaluated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injected into water as a possible behavioral stimulant to enhance capture and removal of invasive red swamp crayfish (RSC, Procambarus clarkii [Girard, 1852]) from a retention pond in southeastern Michigan. Objectives of this study were (1) to determine if target CO 2 concentrations were attainable within the infested pond and (2) to determine if CO 2 treatment was effective to push RSC either towards shorelines or onto dry land, where they could be collected and removed. Carbon dioxide was applied directly into one treatment pond (about [~]2,500 cubic meters) in Novi, Michigan. Two nearby ponds in Livonia, Mich., were used as untreated control ponds. Crayfish removal efficiency was evaluated in all ponds using baited traps and shoreline surveys. Results showed that the CO 2 treatment pond reached its target concentration of greater than (>) 200 milligrams per liter (mg/L) of CO 2 , a benchmark determined from previous laboratory studies, approximately 11 hours after injection started, and maintained concentrations between 200 and 351 mg/L of CO 2 for about 2.5 days. During treatment, some emergent crayfish were observed near influent culverts around the pond, which possibly brought about a behavioral response. However, the number of individuals and crayfish observations were minimal and infrequent. Crayfish continued to be removed throughout CO 2 treatment with baited traps and perimeter surveys, but differences in catch rates between the treatment and control ponds were not apparent and confounded by a temporal decline in catch rates across all ponds. Overall, this study demonstrated that open-water treatment applications with CO 2 are possible, but its effectiveness to enhance RSC removal was unclear because of the limited crayfish observations.

Michigan↗

USGS2021

Using decision analysis to collaboratively respond to invasive species threats: A case study of Lake Erie grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella)

Decisions about invasive species control and eradication can be difficult because of uncertainty in population demographics, movement ecology, and effectiveness of potential response actions. These decisions often include multiple stakeholders and management entities with potentially different objectives, management priorities, and jurisdictional authority. We provide a case study of using multi-party, collaborative decision analysis to aid decision makers in determining objectives and control actions for invasive grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) in Lake Erie. Creating this process required binational (Canada-United States) and multi-state/provincial collaboration to craft a shared problem statement, establish objectives related to ecological, economic, and social concerns, determine potential response actions, and evaluate consequences and tradeoffs of these actions. We used participatory modeling and expert elicitation to evaluate the effectiveness of control scenarios that varied in action type (i.e., removal efforts and spawning barriers) and the temporal and spatial application of these actions. Using a matrix population model parameterized for western Lake Erie grass carp, we found that removal efforts concentrated in areas of high catchability, when paired with a spawning barrier on the Sandusky River, Ohio, USA, could effectively control grass carp in Lake Erie, if all assumptions are met. We determined a set of key uncertainties regarding gear catchability and current population size that have led to the transition to an adaptive management process. In addition, our work formed the basis for grass carp management plans for the states of Michigan and Ohio and has provided a means for collaboration among agencies for effective application of control efforts.

Michigan, Ohio↗

USGS2021

Identifying sources and year classes contributing to invasive grass carp in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Relative contributions of aquaculture-origin and naturally-reproduced grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) in the Laurentian Great Lakes have been unknown. We assessed occurrence and distribution of aquaculture-origin and wild grass carp in the Great Lakes using ploidy and otolith stable oxygen isotope (δ 18 O) data. We inferred natal river and dispersal from natal location for wild grass carp using otolith microchemistry and estimated ages of wild and aquaculture-origin fish to infer years in which natural reproduction and introductions occurred. Otolith δ 18 O indicated that the Great Lakes contain a mixture of wild grass carp and both diploid and triploid, aquaculture-origin grass carp. Eighty-eight percent of wild fish (n = 49 of 56) were caught in the Lake Erie basin. Otolith microchemistry indicated that most wild grass carp likely originated in the Sandusky or Maumee rivers where spawning has previously been confirmed, but results suggested recruitment from at least one other Great Lakes tributary may have occurred. Three fish showed evidence of movement between their inferred natal river in western Lake Erie and capture locations in other lakes in the Great Lakes basin. Age estimates indicated that multiple year classes of wild grass carp are present in the Lake Erie basin, recruitment to adulthood has occurred, and introductions of aquaculture-origin fish have happened over multiple years. Knowledge of sources contributing to grass carp in the Great Lakes basin will be useful for informing efforts to prevent further introductions and spread and to develop strategies to contain and control natural recruitment.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Ontario↗