Geology topics

Sean M. Murphy

Publications and source records attributed to Sean M. Murphy.

11 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Spatially explicit demographics of Mojave Desert Tortoises on a demography plot in California, USA

Obtaining reliable estimates of demographic parameters is critical to effective wildlife conservation and management. Densities of Mojave Desert Tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) were historically derived from capture–mark–recapture surveys on small, often strategically placed demography plots, or demographic study areas, that also provided information on demographic composition and vital rates. After protection was afforded to Desert Tortoises under the US Endangered Species Act in 1990, monitoring shifted mostly to line-distance sampling across broad areas for estimating densities of primarily adult tortoises to inform long-term population trends. However, that approach is incapable of providing data about other demographic characteristics important to population growth and viability. We surveyed a previously unsampled demography plot in the western Mojave Desert, California, USA, during 2022 and applied spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models to estimate spatially explicit Desert Tortoise density and sex-by-size class compositions. Directly accounting for spatiotemporally varying survey effort in SCR models via hazard-based adjustment reduced the estimated detection rate by 91% and increased the estimated density by 17%. Estimated spatial mean Desert Tortoise density across a 2.53-km 2 area was 18.53 tortoises/km 2 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 12.36–27.77). The SCR model–estimated size class ratio was skewed toward prereproductive tortoises (64% prereproductive; 36% adults), whereas the adult sex ratio was female biased (61% females; 39% males). Those ratios corresponded to densities of 11.86 prereproductive tortoises/km 2 (95% CI = 7.91–17.77), 4.08 adult female tortoises/km 2 (95% CI = 2.72–6.11), and 2.59 adult male tortoises/km 2 (95% CI = 1.73–3.89). Estimated tortoise density and demographic composition collectively support a high potential for population growth. Our study provides an illustrative example of using SCR models to directly estimate spatially explicit local Desert Tortoise densities and demographic composition that can be used for long-term monitoring and comparisons with other demography plots to inform conservation.

California↗

USGS2025

Spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture to evaluate demographic status of the Louisiana black bear

Louisiana black bears ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) occur in semi-isolated fragments of bottomland hardwood forest in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley and were listed as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act in 1992. A population viability analysis based on radio-telemetry and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data collected from 2002 to 2012 revealed that the probability of bears persisting in at least 1 subpopulation was >0.999, which prompted the United States Fish and Wildlife Service to remove the Louisiana black bear from the threatened species list in 2016. A post-delisting monitoring plan was developed, which included continued noninvasive CMR surveys to monitor subpopulation trends. We used genetic CMR data based on non-invasively collected hair samples for a post-delisting assessment of the demographic status of the black bear subpopulations in Louisiana, USA. The assessment included primary range in the Tensas River Basin (TRB; 2006–2020), the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB; 2007–2020), and the Three Rivers Complex (TRC; 2014 and 2021), where bears had been reintroduced beginning in 2001, and adjacent areas of possible range expansion (i.e., secondary range). We used spatially explicit closed-population capture-recapture models to estimate abundance ( N ), density ( D ), and the realized population growth rate ( λ ) for female bears at TRB, UARB, and TRC. Model-averaged estimates of N for primary range at TRB ranged from 135 (95% CI = 121–149) female bears in 2006 to 140 (95% CI = 123–157) in 2020 with mean λ of 1.003 (95% CI = 0.991–1.015), which suggested a stable primary population. An estimated 56 (95% CI = 19–92) additional female bears occurred in secondary range at TRB in 2020. Model-averaged estimates of N for primary range at UARB ranged from 35 (95% CI = 28–43) females in 2007 to 33 (95% CI = 28–43) in 2020, with mean λ = 0.996 (95% CI = 0.972–1.020), again suggesting a stable population. We estimated 3 (95% CI = 0–6) additional female bears occurred in secondary range at UARB during 2020. The estimate of N at TRC was 28 (95% CI = 18–44) females in 2014 and 42 (95% CI = 19–94) in 2021. The number of bears in the secondary ranges suggests some bears may have emigrated from the primary areas and colonized secondary areas, likely facilitated by increases in bottomland hardwood forests adjacent to the core populations. The stable primary populations, the reintroduced population at TRC, and the number of bears in secondary range adjacent to TRB indicate the overall number of Louisiana black bears has increased since monitoring began.

Louisiana↗

USGS2025

Jaguar density estimation in Mexico: The conservation importance of considering home range orientation in spatial capture–recapture

Accurate estimation of population parameters for imperiled wildlife is crucial for effective conservation decision-making. Population density is commonly used for monitoring imperiled species across space and time, and spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models can produce unbiased density estimates. However, many imperiled species are restricted to fragmented remnant habitats in landscapes severely modified by humans, which can alter animal space use in ways that violate typical SCR model assumptions, possibly cryptically biasing density estimates and misinforming conservation actions. Using data from a two-year camera-trapping survey in the Central Pacific Coast region, Mexico, we demonstrate the potential importance to endangered jaguar ( Panthera onca ) conservation of considering non-circular home ranges when estimating population density with SCR. Strong evidence existed that jaguars had elliptical home ranges wherein movements primarily occurred along linearly arranged coastal habitats that the camera array aligned with. Accounting for this movement with the SCR anisotropic detection function transformation, density estimates were 30%–32% higher than estimates from standard SCR models that assumed circular home ranges. Given much of suitable jaguar habitat in Mexico is fragmented and linearly oriented along coastlines and mountain ranges, accommodating irregular space use in SCR may be critical for obtaining reliable density estimates to inform effective jaguar conservation.

Nayarit↗

USGS2024

Desert Tortoise translocation plan for the U.S. Department of the Army National Training Center and Fort Irwin Western Training Area

The U.S. Department of the Army proposes to commence military activity at the Fort Irwin National Training Center within the Western Training Area (WTA) and to translocate Mojave Desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ; hereafter tortoise) that will be affected to the Western Training Area Translocation Site (WTATS). This desert tortoise translocation plan provides a timeline of activities, actions for which permits may be required, and guidelines for assessing the short-term and long-term success of this desert tortoise translocation. Importantly, the monitoring projects described are designed to document the ultimate effects of the Army's translocation action (not just inform future translocations elsewhere). Results from the translocation, corresponding monitoring, and research projects will inform future translocations throughout the Mojave Desert for expanding human development. The plan has three main objectives: (1) provide guidelines to achieve a safe, humane, and successful translocation of tortoises from the WTA, with minimal effect to resident desert tortoises at sites where translocated animals are released (recipient sites); (2) study translocated, resident, and reference animals (tortoises living near translocation areas but whose home ranges do not overlap those of translocated or resident tortoises) to learn as much as possible about the ecology, conservation, and management of the desert tortoise; and (3) define best management practices for successful translocation and provide metrics to evaluate success over multiple time scales, which we identify for the short- and long-term. The procedures to plan, implement, monitor, and study translocation of tortoises were written using terms and conditions outlined in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Biological Opinion 2021 that described effects of the expansion of the military base boundary, as well as recommendations provided in the Desert Tortoise Recovery Plan (and 5-year review). We provide guidance on appropriate translocation timing and procedures, as well as on how tortoise ecology and habitat can best be studied to further knowledge on tortoise translocation. The plan provides analysis for landscape tortoise density and abundance estimates, suitable sites for translocation of tortoises, and short- and long-term metrics that are addressed and measured by specific monitoring and research projects that can be used to assess the success of translocation activities.

California↗

USGS2024

Most random-encounter-model density estimates in camera-based predator-prey studies are unreliable

Population estimates are often required for identifying relationships between predators and their prey and to inform conservation and management actions. The random encounter model (REM) estimates population density of wildlife lacking individually unique markings, based on photographs or videos from remote camera-traps. However, the REM has strict sampling and input requirements that can be problematic, particularly for predators and other species which use landscapes non-randomly. Using data from a predator and its co-occurring prey, we found that placing cameras to target the predator, which may be implemented to achieve minimum sample sizes, inflated both predator and prey density estimates. Further, borrowing movement velocity (day range) values from other studies, species, or time periods caused substantial changes in density estimates. A comprehensive literature review revealed that 91% of REM density estimates in published predator–prey studies used data from non-random cameras or borrowed movement velocities and therefore did not satisfy REM requirements. Consequently, most REM density estimates from predator–prey ecology studies are likely not of the quality or reliability necessary for informing effective wildlife conservation or management.

Nevada↗

USGS2024

Abundance of Long-billed Curlews on military lands in the Columbia Basin

Long-billed Curlews ( Numenius americanus ) are declining throughout North America, and the loss of grassland breeding habitat is one of the primary threats to the species. Intermountain West, in particular, has been identified as the most important region in North America for breeding curlews. Nevertheless, the density and abundance of Long-billed Curlews in this region is not well understood. Lands managed for military training can provide habitat for wildlife species of conservation concern, and increasingly these lands are becoming relevant to sustaining biodiversity. We conducted point count surveys of Long-billed Curlews on Department of Defense lands in the Columbia Basin near Boardman, Oregon, USA during two consecutive breeding seasons. We used multinomial-Poisson mixture models to estimate detection probability and density of curlews and to investigate environmental correlates of those metrics. Mean detection probability at a distance of 400 m was 0.45 and 0.61 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. In 2015, the clarity of skies increased detection probability, but in 2016, none of the variables we measured influenced detection probability. Mean predicted density was 3.3 (95% confidence interval: 2.4–4.7) and 1.8 (1.2–2.7) curlews/km² in 2015 and 2016, respectively. In both years, curlew density was higher in lower-elevation or topographically smoother areas. Estimated abundance of curlews in the study area was 639 (456–912) and 350 (237–520) birds in 2015 and 2016, respectively. The number of curlews appeared to fluctuate across the two years of our study, a demographic trend that may have been influenced by a wildfire in our study area in June 2015. The results of our study indicate that federal grasslands, including areas where military operations are conducted, can provide conservation benefit to breeding Long-billed Curlews.

Oregon↗

USGS2019

Spatial capture–recapture for categorically marked populations with an application to genetic capture–recapture

Recently introduced unmarked spatial capture–recapture (SCR), spatial mark–resight (SMR), and 2‐flank spatial partial identity models (SPIMs) extend the domain of SCR to populations or observation systems that do not always allow for individual identity to be determined with certainty. For example, some species do not have natural marks that can reliably produce individual identities from photographs, and some methods of observation produce partial identity samples as is the case with remote cameras that sometimes produce single‐flank photographs. Unmarked SCR, SMR, and SPIM share the feature that they probabilistically resolve the uncertainty in individual identity using the spatial location where samples were collected. Spatial location is informative of individual identity in spatially structured populations because a sample is more likely to have been produced by an individual living near the trap where it was recorded than an individual living further away from the trap. Further, the level of information about individual identity that a spatial location contains is related to two key ecological concepts, population density and home range size, which we quantify using a proposed Identity Diversity Index (IDI). We show that latent and partial identity SCR models produce imprecise and biased density estimates in many high IDI scenarios when data are sparse. We then extend the unmarked SCR model to incorporate categorical, partially identifying covariates, which reduce the level of uncertainty in individual identity, increasing the reliability and precision of density estimates, and allowing reliable density estimation in scenarios with higher IDI values and with more sparse data. We illustrate the performance of this “categorical SPIM” via simulations and by applying it to a black bear data set using microsatellite loci as categorical covariates, where we reproduce the full data set estimates with only slightly less precision using fewer loci than necessary for confident individual identification. We then discuss how the categorical SPIM can be applied to other wildlife sampling scenarios such as remote camera surveys, where natural or researcher‐applied partial marks can be observed in photographs. Finally, we discuss how the categorical SPIM can be added to SMR, 2‐flank SPIM, or other latent identity SCR models.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2019

Early genetic outcomes of American black bear reintroductions in the Central Appalachians, USA

Habitat loss and overexploitation extirpated American black bears (Ursus americanus) from most of the Central Appalachians, USA, by the early twentieth century. To attempt to restore bears to the southwestern portion of this region, 2 reintroductions that used small founder groups (n = 27 and 55 bears), but different release methods (hard versus soft), were conducted during the 1990s. We collected hair samples from black bears in the reintroduced Big South Fork (BSF) and Kentucky–Virginia populations (KVP), their respective Great Smoky Mountains (GSM) and Shenandoah National Park (SNP) source populations, and a neighboring population in southern West Virginia (SWV) to investigate the early genetic outcomes of bear reintroduction. Despite having undergone genetic bottlenecks, genetic diversity remained similar between reintroduced populations and their sources ~15 years after the founder events (ranges: AR = 4.86–5.61; HO = 0.67–0.75; HE = 0.65–0.71). Effective population sizes of the reintroduced KVP and BSF (NE = 31 and 36, respectively) were substantially smaller than their respective SNP and GSM sources (NE = 119 and 156, respectively), supporting founder effects. Genetic structure analysis indicated that the hard released (i.e., no acclimation period) KVP founder group likely declined considerably, whereas the soft released BSF founder group remained mostly intact, suggesting superior effectiveness of soft releases. Asymmetrical gene flow via immigration from the SWV has resulted in the KVP recovering from the initial founder group reduction. Sustained isolation, small NE, and small population size of the BSF may warrant continued genetic monitoring to determine if gene flow from neighboring populations is established or NE declines. For future bear reintroductions, we suggest managers consider sourcing founders from populations with high genetic diversity and soft-releasing bears to locales that are, if possible, within the dispersal capability of extant populations to mitigate the potential consequences of founder effects and isolation.

Central Appalachians↗

USGS2018

Genetic diversity, effective population size, and structure among black bear populations in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA

Multiple small populations of American black bears Ursus americanus , including the recently delisted Louisiana black bear subspecies U. a. luteolus , occupy a fragmented landscape in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley, USA (LMAV). Populations include bears native to the LMAV, bears translocated from Minnesota during the 1960s, and recently reintroduced and colonizing populations sourced from within the LMAV. We estimated population structure, gene flow, and genetic parameters important to conservation of small populations using genotypes at 23 microsatellite markers for 265 bears from seven populations. We inferred five genetic clusters corresponding to the following populations: White River and western Mississippi, Tensas River and Three Rivers, Upper Atchafalaya, Lower Atchafalaya, and Minnesota. Upper Atchafalaya was suggested as the product of Minnesota-sourced translocations, but those populations have since diverged, likely because of a founder effect followed by genetic drift and isolation. An admixture zone recently developed in northeastern Louisiana and western Mississippi between migrants from White River and Tensas River, resulting in a Wahlund effect. However, gene flow among most populations has been limited and considerable genetic differentiation accumulated (global F ST = 0.22), particularly among the three Louisiana black bear populations that existed when federal listing occurred. Consistent with previous bottlenecks, founder effects, and persisting isolation, all LMAV bear populations had low genetic diversity ( A R = 2.08–4.81; H E = 0.36–0.63) or small effective population size ( N E = 3–49). Translocating bears among populations as part of a regional genetic restoration program may help improve genetic diversity and increase effective population sizes.

Lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley↗

USGS2017

No flood effect on recruitment of a small Louisiana black bear population

A flood event in 2011 had minor impacts on apparent survival and movement probabilities of a small, isolated population of Louisiana black bears ( Ursus americanus luteolus ) in the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin, Louisiana, USA. However, the potential effects of the flood on recruitment of juveniles into the population, then listed as threatened under the United States Endangered Species Act, were not evaluated. We used hair trapping data collected from 2007 to 2015 and Pradel temporal symmetry models in a robust‐design framework to investigate changes in per capita recruitment that could have resulted from the flood. We detected 91 bears (37 M:54 F) within the flooded area during our study period, ranging from 21 to 44 individuals/year. Models that tested for reduced recruitment resulting from the flood were not supported more than models with constant recruitment, and the population growth rate did not decline. Although we documented marginally lower recruitment following the 2011 flood, lag effects and detectability biases complicated our analysis. We suggest that wildlife managers continue monitoring recruitment and survival in this recently delisted black bear population given the potential for heightened flood frequency and severity in the future.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Rapid growth and genetic diversity retention in an isolated reintroduced black bear population in the central appalachians

Animal reintroductions are important tools of wildlife management to restore species to their historical range, and they can also create unique opportunities to study population dynamics and genetics from founder events. We used non-invasive hair sampling in a systematic, closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study design at the Big South Fork (BSF) area in Kentucky during 2010 and Tennessee during 2012 to estimate the demographic and genetic characteristics of the black bear ( Ursus americanus ) population that resulted from a reintroduced founding population of 18 bears in 1998. We estimated 38 (95% CI: 31–66) and 190 (95% CI: 170–219) bears on the Kentucky and Tennessee study areas, respectively. Based on the Tennessee abundance estimate alone, the mean annual growth rate was 18.3% (95% CI: 17.4–19.5%) from 1998 to 2012. We also compared the genetic characteristics of bears sampled during 2010–2012 to bears in the population during 2000–2002, 2–4 years following reintroduction, and to the source population. We found that the level of genetic diversity since reintroduction as indicated by expected heterozygosity ( H E ) remained relatively constant ( H E(source, 2004)  = 0.763, H E(BSF, 2000–2002)  = 0.729, H E(BSF, 2010–2012)  = 0.712) and the effective number of breeders ( N B ) remained low but had increased since reintroduction in the absence of sufficient immigration ( N B(BSF, 2000–2002)  = 12, N B(BSF, 2010–2012)   = 35). This bear population appears to be genetically isolated, but contrary to our expectations, we did not find evidence of genetic diversity loss or other deleterious genetic effects typically observed from small founder groups. We attribute that to high initial genetic diversity in the founder group combined with overlapping generations and rapid population growth. Although the population remains relatively small, the reintroduction using a small founder group appears to be demographically and genetically sustainable.

Kentucky, Tennessee↗