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Geology topics

Sarah J. Converse

Publications and source records attributed to Sarah J. Converse.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2022

Non-target effects of herbicides on the Zerene silverspot butterfly, a surrogate subspecies for the threatened Oregon silverspot butterfly

Herbicides are used as management tools to improve habitat for native plants and animals, but their application may also have harmful effects on the native community. The federally threatened Oregon silverspot butterfly ( Speyeria = Argynnis zerene hippolyta ) resides in remnant native grasslands along the Pacific Northwest coast. However, like many grasslands, many of these areas have high incidences of invasive plants, such as false dandelion ( Hypochaeris radicata ) and velvet grass ( Holcus lanatus ). These and other invasive plants severely limit the abundance of the Oregon silverspot’s larval host plant, the early blue violet ( Viola adunca ). Selective herbicides, such as clopyralid and fluazifop-P-butyl, can reduce invasive plant abundance. However, non-target effects of these herbicides, and of adjuvants applied with these herbicides, on Oregon silverspots are unknown. In our study, we applied herbicides and adjuvants to host plants and Zerene silverspot ( S. z. zerene ) larvae, a subspecies closely related to Oregon silverspots. Responses in silverspot larvae measured in two experiments included survival, sex ratio, development time, mass, morphology, fecundity, and behavior. Our results suggest that negative effects of herbicides, clopyralid and fluazifop-P-butyl, and adjuvants, Agri-Dex ® and Nu-Film ® -IR, are limited. However, we detected weak effects from clopyralid and fluazifop-P-butyl with and without Agri-Dex ® on larval and pupal development time and pupal mass.

Journal of Insect Conservation↗
USGS2021

Ontogenetic shifts from social to experiential learning drive avian migration timing

Migrating animals may benefit from social or experiential learning, yet whether and how these learning processes interact or change over time to produce observed migration patterns remains unexplored. Using 16 years of satellite-tracking data from 105 reintroduced whooping cranes, we reveal an interplay between social and experiential learning in migration timing. Both processes dramatically improved individuals’ abilities to dynamically adjust their timing to track environmental conditions along the migration path. However, results revealed an ontogenetic shift in the dominant learning process, whereby subadult birds relied on social information, while mature birds primarily relied on experiential information. These results indicate that the adjustment of migration phenology in response to the environment is a learned skill that depends on both social context and individual age. Assessing how animals successfully learn to time migrations as environmental conditions change is critical for understanding intraspecific differences in migration patterns and for anticipating responses to global change.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2021

Tools for increasing visual encounter probabilities for invasive species removal: A case study of brown treesnakes

Early detection and rapid response (EDRR) are essential to identifying and decisively responding to the introduction or spread of an invasive species, thus avoiding population establishment and improving the probability of achieving eradication. However, detection can be challenging at the onset of a species invasion as low population densities can reduce detection probability and conceal the true extent of the situation until the species is well established. This is doubly challenging if the invading species displays cryptic behavior or is nocturnal, thus further limiting opportunities for its discovery. Survey methods that maximize a searcher’s ability to detect an incipient population are therefore critical for successful EDRR. Brown treesnakes (Boiga irregularis) on Guåhan are a classic cautionary example of the dangers of not detecting an invasion early on, and the risk of their introduction to other islands within the Marianas, Hawai’i and beyond remains. Nocturnal visual surveys are known to detect brown treesnakes of all sizes and are the primary detection tool used by the Brown Treesnake Rapid Response Team, but detection probability remains low in complex forest habitats. As such, we investigated the use of two potential enhancements to nocturnal visual surveys – a live mouse lure and spray scent attractant – that may create hotspots of increased detection probability during surveys. We found that, while brown treesnake detection probabilities were low for all surveys, visual surveys conducted on transects with live mouse lures resulted in detection probabilities that were 1.3 times higher than on transects without live mouse lures. Conversely, the spray scent attractant did not increase the probability of detecting brown treesnakes compared to transects without scent, and in fact had detection probabilities that were 0.66 times lower, though the reasons for this phenomenon are unclear. Unlike scent attractants, live mouse lures likely provide both visual and olfactory cues that attract brown treesnakes to transects and thus provide more opportunities to detect and capture them. These enhancements were trialed on Guåhan, where prey populations are depressed. It remains unclear whether live mouse lures will be as effective for EDRR applications in prey-rich settings.

Guam↗
USGS2021

Demographic risk assessment for a harvested species threatened by climate change: Polar bears in the Chukchi Sea

Climate change threatens global biodiversity. Many species vulnerable to climate change are important to humans for nutritional, cultural, and economic reasons. Polar bears Ursus maritimus are threatened by sea-ice loss and represent a subsistence resource for Indigenous people. We applied a novel population modeling-management framework that is based on species life history and accounts for habitat loss to evaluate subsistence harvest for the Chukchi Sea (CS) polar bear subpopulation. Harvest strategies followed a state-dependent approach under which new data were used to update the harvest on a predetermined management interval. We found that a harvest strategy with a starting total harvest rate of 2.7% (˜85 bears/yr at current abundance), a 2:1 male-to-female ratio, and a 10-yr management interval would likely maintain subpopulation abundance above maximum net productivity level for the next 35 yr (approximately three polar bear generations), our primary criterion for sustainability. Plausible bounds on starting total harvest rate were 1.7–3.9%, where the range reflects uncertainty due to sampling variation, environmental variation, model selection, and differing levels of risk tolerance. The risk of undesired demographic outcomes (e.g., overharvest) was positively related to harvest rate, management interval, and projected declines in environmental carrying capacity; and negatively related to precision in population data. Results reflect several lines of evidence that the CS subpopulation has been productive in recent years, although it is uncertain how long this will last as sea-ice loss continues. Our methods provide a template for balancing trade-offs among protection, use, research investment, and other factors. Demographic risk assessment and state-dependent management will become increasingly important for harvested species, like polar bears, that exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their response to climate change.

Chukchi Sea↗
USGS2021

An integrated path for spatial capture–recapture and animal movement modeling

Ecologists and conservation biologists increasingly rely on spatial capture–recapture (SCR) and movement modeling to study animal populations. Historically, SCR has focused on population-level processes (e.g., vital rates, abundance, density, and distribution), whereas animal movement modeling has focused on the behavior of individuals (e.g., activity budgets, resource selection, migration). Even though animal movement is clearly a driver of population-level patterns and dynamics, technical and conceptual developments to date have not forged a firm link between the two fields. Instead, movement modeling has typically focused on the individual level without providing a coherent scaling from individual- to population-level processes, whereas SCR has typically focused on the population level while greatly simplifying the movement processes that give rise to the observations underlying these models. In our view, the integration of SCR and animal movement modeling has tremendous potential for allowing ecologists to scale up from individuals to populations and advancing the types of inferences that can be made at the intersection of population, movement, and landscape ecology. Properly accounting for complex animal movement processes can also potentially reduce bias in estimators of population-level parameters, thereby improving inferences that are critical for species conservation and management. This introductory article to the Special Feature reviews recent advances in SCR and animal movement modeling, establishes a common notation, highlights potential advantages of linking individual-level (Lagrangian) movements to population-level (Eulerian) processes, and outlines a general conceptual framework for the integration of movement and SCR models. We then identify important avenues for future research, including key challenges and potential pitfalls in the developments and applications that lie ahead.

Ecology↗
USGS2021

Mechanistic invasive species management models and their application in conservation

Management strategies to address the challenges associated with invasive species are critical for effective conservation. An increasing variety of mathematical models offer insight into invasive populations, and can help managers identify cost effective prevention, control, and eradication actions. Despite this, as model complexity grows, so does the inaccessibility of these tools to conservation practitioners making decisions about management. Here, we seek to narrow the science-practice gap by reviewing invasive species management models (ISMMs). We define ISMMs as mechanistic models used to explore invasive species management strategies, and include reaction-advection–diffusion models, integrodifference equations, gravity models, particle transport models, nonspatial and spatial discrete-time population growth models, cellular automata, and individual-based models. For each approach, we describe the model framework and its implementation, discuss strengths and weaknesses, and give examples of conservation applications. We conclude by discussing how ISMMs can be used in concert with adaptive management to address scientific uncertainties impeding action and with multiple objective decision processes to evaluate tradeoffs among management objectives. We undertook this review to support more effective decision-making involving invasive species by providing conservation practitioners with the information they need to identify tools most useful for their applications.

Conservation Science and Practice↗
USGS2021

Evaluation of camera trap-based abundance estimators for unmarked populations

Estimates of species abundance are critical to understand population processes and to assess and select management actions. However, capturing and marking individuals for abundance estimation, while providing robust information, can be economically and logistically prohibitive, particularly for species with cryptic behavior. Camera traps can be used to collect data at temporal and spatial scales necessary for estimating abundance, but the use of camera traps comes with limitations when target species are not uniquely identifiable (i.e., “unmarked”). Abundance estimation is particularly useful in the management of invasive species, with herpetofauna being recognized as some of the most pervasive and detrimental invasive vertebrate species. However, the use of camera traps for these taxa presents additional challenges with relevancy across multiple taxa. It is often necessary to use lures to attract animals in order to obtain sufficient observations, yet lure attraction can influence species’ landscape use and potentially induce bias in abundance estimators. We investigated these challenges and assessed the feasibility of obtaining reliable abundance estimates using camera-trapping data on a population of invasive brown treesnakes ( Boiga irregularis ) in Guam. Data were collected using camera traps in an enclosed area where snakes were subject to high-intensity capture–recapture effort, resulting in presumed abundance of 116 snakes (density = 23/ha). We then applied spatial count, random encounter and staying time, space to event, and instantaneous sampling estimators to photo-capture data to estimate abundance and compared estimates to our presumed abundance. We found that all estimators for unmarked populations performed poorly, with inaccurate or imprecise abundance estimates that limit their usefulness for management in this system. We further investigated the sensitivity of these estimators to the use of lures (i.e., violating the assumption that animal behavior is unchanged by sampling) and camera density in a simulation study. Increasing the effective distances of a lure (i.e., lure attraction) and camera density both resulted in biased abundance estimates. Each estimator rarely recovered truth or suffered from convergence issues. Our results indicate that, when limited to unmarked estimators and the use of lures, camera traps alone are unlikely to produce abundance estimates with utility for brown treesnake management.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2021

Trading off hatching success and cost in the captive breeding of Whooping Cranes

Captive breeding is an increasingly used conservation strategy for species with a high risk of extinction in the wild, but managing a captive breeding programme can be challenging if there is a deficiency in knowledge about the species’ breeding biology. A knowledge gap can make it difficult to evaluate different management options. For avian species, egg hatching success is a key demographic parameter, and data-logging egg technology can provide important information on optimal species-specific incubation conditions, which can help inform captive breeding practises and identify efficient captive management options. In the context of a captive breeding programme for endangered Whooping Cranes Grus americana , we investigated associations between hatching success and incubation conditions, including environmental parameters (temperature, relative humidity and egg turning rate), and incubation type (artificial incubation; foster incubation by Sandhill Cranes, Grus canadensis ; and Whooping Crane incubation). Finally, we considered both cost and breeding output in an analysis of incubation practises. We found that daily mean temperatures were negatively associated with hatching success, and that hatching success was highest with incubation under Sandhill Cranes. However, incubation by artificial incubators, rather than Sandhill Cranes, provided a trade-off between cost and breeding output that is likely to be acceptable to many captive programme managers. We encourage other captive breeding programmes to use innovations that help to increase potential release numbers for conservation translocations by considering biological and financial constraints.

Animal Conservation↗
USGS2021

Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data

Understanding the influence of individual attributes on demographic processes is a key objective of wildlife population studies. Capture-recapture and age data are commonly collected to investigate hypotheses about survival, reproduction, and viability. We present a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model that incorporates age and capture-recapture data to provide comprehensive information on population dynamics, including abundance, age-dependent survival, recruitment, age structure, and population growth rates. We applied our model to a multi-year capture-recapture study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada (20122018), where management and conservation require a detailed understanding of how polar bears respond to climate change and other factors. In simulation studies, the age-structured Jolly-Seber model improved precision of survival, recruitment, and annual abundance estimates relative to standard Jolly-Seber models that omit age information. Furthermore, incorporating age information improved precision of population growth rates, increased power to detect trends in abundance, and allowed direct estimation of age-dependent survival and changes in annual age structure. Our case study provided detailed evidence for senescence in polar bear survival. Median survival estimates were lower (<0.95) for individuals aged <5 years, remained high (>0.95) for individuals aged 722 years, and subsequently declined to near zero for individuals >30 years. We also detected cascading effects of large recruitment classes on population age structure, which created major shifts in age structure when these classes entered the population and then again when they reached prime breeding ages (1015 years old). Overall, age-structured Jolly-Seber models provide a flexible means to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations (e.g., via senescence, life expectancy, and lifetime reproductive success) while improving our ability to investigate population dynamics and forecast population changes from capture-recapture data.

PLoS ONE↗
USGS2021

Modeling opportunistic exploitation: Increased extinction risk when targeting more than one species

Extinction rates are increasing globally, and direct exploitation is an important driver. Many pathways have been proposed to explain how exploitation can lead to extinction. One of these proposed but understudied multispecies pathways is opportunistic exploitation, which occurs when a highly valuable but rare species is encountered and targeted during exploitation of a less valuable, but more common, target species. Using individual-based simulations of exploiters in a two-species spatial model, we contribute evidence which supports that opportunistic exploitation increases depletion when compared to single-species exploitation, and is as detrimental to the more valuable, rare species as the anthropogenic Allee effect (where price increases with rarity) and the Allee effect (where population growth declines at low abundance). The most important factors affecting the impact of opportunistic exploitation are gross revenue and abundance of the more common, less valuable species, while ease of capture and growth rate of the more common, less valuable species are less important. Thus, valuable but rare species are most at risk when harvested alongside low-value abundant species; this information is relevant for managers focused on protection of rare species in multispecies systems.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2020

Estimating population-specific predation effects on Chinook salmon via data integration

Recent success in the conservation of many marine mammals has resulted in new management challenges due to increasing conflict with fisheries. Increasing predation by pinnipeds on threatened salmon is of particular concern. Seemingly, pinniped conservation is now in conflict with the recovery of threatened salmon, creating a dilemma for managers. We use the Lower Columbia River as a case study for examining the relationship between seasonal California sea lion Zalophus californianus abundance and survival of threatened salmon. To quantify mortality associated with increasing sea lion abundance, we examined the effect of seasonal sea lion abundance on adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha survival during migrations through the Lower Columbia River. We integrated data on survival with data on population-specific migration timing, allowing quantification of the relationship between sea lion abundance and survival in 18 populations of spring–summer Chinook salmon listed as Threatened or Endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Of the 18 populations examined, earlier migrating populations experienced lower survival in association with increased exposure to higher sea lion abundance. We estimated that in years with high sea lion abundance, the nine earliest-migrating populations experienced an additional 21.1% (95% CI = 16.3–26.1) mortality compared to years with baseline sea lion abundance, while the nine latest migrating populations experienced an additional 10.1% (7.5–13.0). Synthesis and applications . Integrating datasets on seasonal survival and migration timing made it possible for us to estimate population-specific mortality associated with increased sea lion abundance in the Lower Columbia River. This information could not be produced from any one dataset, highlighting the utility of data integration approaches. The mortality experienced by early migrating Chinook salmon suggests the potential for demographic and evolutionary consequences. Management actions such as hazing, relocating, or removing individuals that are frequent predators on salmon have been proposed. Identifying the management actions that will allow for socially and legally acceptable trade-offs between multiple conservation and other social values will be facilitated by development of explicit multi-species management frameworks. Continued monitoring will help to reduce the substantial uncertainty about the effect of pinnipeds on salmon and the predicted outcomes of alternative management actions.

Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2020

Introduction to risk analysis

Many decisions are made in the face of uncertainty that either cannot or will not be reduced, and the challenge to the decision maker is how to manage the risk imposed by that uncertainty. This chapter will introduce the field of risk analysis, focusing on both the scientific tasks (estimating the probabilities and magnitudes of possible outcomes) and the policy-relevant value judgments needed (understanding the risk tolerances of the decision makers and stakeholders). The three case studies that follow demonstrate a range of approaches to risk management in a natural resource setting.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Prioritizing uncertainties to improve management of a reintroduction program

The success of wildlife reintroduction efforts rests on the demographic performance of released animals. Whooping Cranes in the eastern migratory population—reintroduced beginning in 2001—demonstrate adequate survival but poor reproduction. Managers and scientists have used an iterative process of learning and management to respond to this management challenge, but by 2015, uncertainty about the causes of reproductive failure remained substantial. An expert judgment–driven process was used to develop and refine competing hypotheses for reproductive failure and to evaluate the impact of various management actions on components of reproduction (nesting success and fledging success) in light of the various hypotheses. I used that information to calculate value of information, the expected improvement in management performance associated with an increase in knowledge, which suggests research and monitoring priorities for the future.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

Reserve network design for prairie-dependent taxa in South Puget Sound

Conserving species requires managing threats, including habitat loss. One approach to managing habitat loss is to identify and protect habitat in networks of reserves. Reserve network design is a type of resource allocation problem: how can we choose the most effective reserve network design given available resources? We undertook development and implementation of a patch dynamics model to allow us to evaluate proposed reserve networks in terms of ability to sustain populations of several taxa that are dependent on native prairie in the South Puget Sound region of Washington, USA. We used expert input to build a patch dynamics model for each taxon and used the model to examine probability of persistence in 50 years under a variety of reserve network designs, including the existing reserve network. Results suggest that the existing reserve network offers varying levels of protection for the different taxa, from desirable (>90% certain that the probability of persistence is ≥75% in 50 years) to negligible. We identified a reserve network that was >90% certain to protect all 6 taxa of interest, which would require a combination of land protection and translocations of taxa to new or existing reserves. Post hoc, we also identified possible hybrid alternatives, involving addition of new reserves and growth of existing reserves, that protected all 6 taxa without translocations. The approach we demonstrate is technically tractable and allows for the evaluation of any proposed reserve network design, thereby allowing a decision maker to evaluate a set of reserve networks that meet resource constraints and determine which of those best meets conservation objectives.

Washington↗