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USGS2011

Integration of paleoseismic data from multiple sites to develop an objective earthquake chronology: Application to the Weber segment of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

We present a method to evaluate and integrate paleoseismic data from multiple sites into a single, objective measure of earthquake timing and recurrence on discrete segments of active faults. We apply this method to the Weber segment (WS) of the Wasatch fault zone using data from four fault-trench studies completed between 1981 and 2009. After systematically reevaluating the stratigraphic and chronologic data from each trench site, we constructed time-stratigraphic OxCal models that yield site probability density functions (PDFs) of the times of individual earthquakes. We next qualitatively correlated the site PDFs into a segment-wide earthquake chronology, which is supported by overlapping site PDFs, large per-event displacements, and prominent segment boundaries. For each segment-wide earthquake, we computed the product of the site PDF probabilities in common time bins, which emphasizes the overlap in the site earthquake times, and gives more weight to the narrowest, best-defined PDFs. The product method yields smaller earthquake-timing uncertainties compared to taking the mean of the site PDFs, but is best suited to earthquakes constrained by broad, overlapping site PDFs. We calculated segment-wide earthquake recurrence intervals and uncertainties using a Monte Carlo model. Five surface-faulting earthquakes occurred on the WS at about 5.9, 4.5, 3.1, 1.1, and 0.6 ka. With the exception of the 1.1-ka event, we used the product method to define the earthquake times. The revised WS chronology yields a mean recurrence interval of 1.3 kyr (0.7–1.9-kyr estimated two-sigma [2δ] range based on interevent recurrence). These data help clarify the paleoearthquake history of the WS, including the important question of the timing and rupture extent of the most recent earthquake, and are essential to the improvement of earthquake-probability assessments for the Wasatch Front region.

Utah↗

USGS2003

A methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA)

We present a methodology for conducting a site-specific probabilistic analysis of fault displacement hazard. Two approaches are outlined. The first relates the occurrence of fault displacement at or near the ground surface to the occurrence of earthquakes in the same manner as is done in a standard probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for ground shaking. The methodology for this approach is taken directly from PSHA methodology with the ground-motion attenuation function replaced by a fault displacement attenuation function. In the second approach, the rate of displacement events and the distribution for fault displacement are derived directly from the characteristics of the faults or geologic features at the site of interest. The methodology for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) was developed for a normal faulting environment and the probability distributions we present may have general application in similar tectonic regions. In addition, the general methodology is applicable to any region and we indicate the type of data needed to apply the methodology elsewhere.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS1994

Large mid-Holocene and late Pleistocene earthquakes on the Oquirrh fault zone, Utah

The Oquirrh fault zone is a range-front normal fault that bounds the east side of Tooele Valley and it has long been recognized as a potential source for large earthquakes that pose a significant hazard to population centers along the Wasatch Front in central Utah. Scarps of the Oquirrh fault zone offset the Provo shoreline of Lake Bonneville and previous studies of scarp morphology suggested that the most recent surface-faulting earthquake occurred between 9000 and 13,500 years ago. Based on a potential rupture length of 12 to 21 km from previous mapping, moment magnitude ( M w ) estimates for this event range from 6.3 to 6.6 In contrast, our results from detailed mapping and trench excavations at two sites indicate that the most-recent event actually occurred between 4300 and 6900 yr B.P. (4800 and 7900 cal B.P.) and net vertical displacements were 2.2 to 2.7 m, much larger than expected considering estimated rupture lengths for this event. Empirical relations between magnitude and displacement yield M w 7.0 to 7.2. A few, short discontinuous fault scarps as far south as Stockton, Utah have been identified in a recent mapping investigation and our results suggest that they may be part of the Oquirrh fault zone, increasing the total fault length to 32 km. These results emphasize the importance of integrating stratigraphic and geomorphic information in fault investigations for earthquake hazard evaluations. At both the Big Canyon and Pole Canyon sites, trenches exposed faulted Lake Bonneville sediments and thick wedges of fault-scarp derived colluvium associated with the most-recent event. Bulk sediment samples from a faulted debris-flow deposit at the Big Canyon site yield radiocarbon ages of 7650 ± 90 yr B.P. and 6840 ± 100 yr B.P. (all lab errors are ±1 α ). A bulk sediment sample from unfaulted fluvial deposits that bury the fault scarp yield a radiocarbon age estimate of 4340 ± 60 yr B.P. Stratigraphic evidence for a pre-Bonneville lake cycle penultimate earthquake was exposed at the Pole Canyon site, and although displacement is not well constrained, the penultimate event colluvial wedge is comparable in size to the most-recent event wedges. Charcoal from a marsh deposit, which overlies the penultimate event colluvium and was deposited during the Bonneville lake cycle transgression, yields an AMS radiocarbon age of 20,370 ± 120 yr B.P. Multiple charcoal fragments from fluvial deposits faulted during the penultimate event yield an AMS radiocarbon age of 26,200 ± 200 yr B.P. Indirect stratigraphic evidence for an antepenultimate event was also exposed at Pole Canyon. Charcoal from fluvial sediments overlying the eroded free-face for this event yields an AMS age of 33,950 ± 1160 yr B.P., providing a minimum limiting age on the antepenultimate event. Ages for the past two events on the Oquirrh fault zone yield a recurrence interval of 13,300 to 22,100 radiocarbon years and estimated slip rates of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr. Temporal clustering of earthquakes on the nearby Wasatch fault zone in the late Holocene does not appear to have influenced activity on the Oquirrh fault zone. However, consistent with findings on the Wasatch fault zone and with some other Quaternary faults within the Bonneville basin, we found evidence for higher rates of activity during interpluvial periods than during the Bonneville lake cycle. If a causal relation between rates of strain release along faults and changes in loads imposed by the lake does exist, it may have implications for fault dips and mechanics. However, our data are only complete for one deep-lake cycle (the past 32,000 radiocarbon years), and whether this pattern persisted during the previous Cutler Dam and Little Valley deep-lake cycles is unknown.

Geomorphology↗