Search USGS⌕ Search

Geology topics

S.P. Nishenko

Publications and source records attributed to S.P. Nishenko.

12 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2012

Guideline for assessing the performance of electric power systems in natural hazard and human threat events

Electric power utilities are familiar with and skilled in preparing for and responding to almost-routine natural hazard events such as strong wind and ice storms and seasonal floods, as well as intentional human acts such as vandalism. Recent extreme weather (hurricanes Katrina and Rita), extremely destructive international earthquakes (in Sumatra and Pakistan), and nation-wide concerns regarding future terrorist attacks have increased the pressure on utilities to take appropriate steps to avoid being overwhelmed by such infrequent and exceedingly severe events. Determining what constitutes the appropriate steps to take requires various levels of understanding of the specific hazards and the risks faced by the utility. The American Lifelines Alliance (www. americanlifelinesalliance.org) has prepared a Guideline that provides clear, concise, and nationally-applicable guidance on determining the scope and level of effort necessary to assess power system performance in the wide range of natural hazard or human threat events. Included in this Guideline are specific procedures to follow and information to consider in performing standardized assessments. With the results of such assessments, utility owners can effectively establish and carry out risk management programs that will lead to achieving appropriate levels of performance in future events. The Guideline incorporates an inquiry-driven process with a two-phase performance assessment that can be applied to power systems of any size. The screening phase enables systems or components that are clearly not at risk to be screened out early. The subsequent analysis phase uses results from the screening phase to prioritize and allocate resources for more detailed assessments of hazard, vulnerability, and system performance. This process helps assure that the scope of the assessment meets the specific performance objectives of the inquiry. A case history is presented to illustrate the type of experience with an inquiry-driven process that was considered in developing the Guideline to meet the diverse needs of utility personnel in engineering, operations, and management. Copyright ASCE 2007.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

American lifelines alliance efforts to improve electric power transmission reliability

A study was performed on American Lifelines Alliance (ALA) efforts to improve electric power transmission reliability. ALA is a public-private partnership project, with the goal of reducing risks to lifelines from natural hazards and human threat events. The mechanism used by ALA for developing national guidelines for lifeline systems is dependent upon using existing Standards Developing Organizations (SDO) accredited by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) as means to achieve national consensus.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1994

Seismicity trends and potential for large earthquakes in the Alaska-Aleutian region

The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or more M???7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994-1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type "A" zones), while others show deceleration (type "D" zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes-in 1957, 1964, and 1965-originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years. ?? 1994 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1991

Circum-Pacific seismic potential: 1989-1999

The seismic potential for 96 segments of simple plate boundaries around the circum-Pacific region is presented in terms of the conditional probability for the occurrence of either large or great interplate earthquakes during the next 5, 10, and 20 years (i.e., 1989-1994, 1989-1999 and 1989-2009). This study represents the first probabilistic summary of seismic potential on this scale, and involves the comparison of plate boundary segments that exhibit varying recurrence times, magnitudes, and tectonic regimes. Presenting these data in a probabilistic framework provides a basis for the uniform comparison of seismic hazard between these differing fault segments, as well as accounting for individual variations in recurrence time along a specific fault segment, and uncertainties in the determination of the average recurrence time. The definition of specific segments along simple plate boundaries relies on the mapping of earthquake rupture zones as defined by the aftershock distributions of prior large and great earthquakes, and historic descriptions of felt intensities and damage areas. The 96 segments are chosen to represent areas likely to be ruptured by "characteristic" earthquakes of a specified size or magnitude. The term characteristic implies repeated breakage of a plate boundary segment by large or great earthquakes whose source dimensions are similar from cycle to cycle. This definition does not exclude the possibility that occasionally adjacent characteristic earthquake segments may break together in a single, larger event. Conversely, a segment may also break in a series of smaller ruptures. Estimates of recurrence times and conditional probabilities for characteristic earthquakes along segments of simple plate boundaries are based on 1) the historic and instrumental record of large and great earthquake occurrence; 2) paleoseismic evidence of recurrence from radiometric dating of Holocene features produced by earthquakes; 3) direct calculations of recurrence time from the size of the most recent characteristic event and the long-term rates of plate motion assuming the validity of the time-predictable model for earthquake recurrence; and 4) the application of a lognormal distribution for the recurrence times of large and great earthquakes. Time-dependent estimates of seismic potential are based on a physical model of earthquake occurrence which assumes that the probability for an earthquake is low immediately following the occurrence of a characteristic earthquake and increases with time as the stress on the fault segment recovers the stress drop of the event. This study updates earlier work on seismic gaps by explicitly including both recurrence time information and the temporal proximity to the next event as factors in describing earthquake hazards. Currently, 11 out of 96 regions have a high (i.e., ???50%) probability of recurrence during the next 10 years and are characterized by either fairly short (i.e., less than 30-40 years) recurrence times or long elapsed times relative to the average recurrence time. The majority of these segments are located in the southwest Pacific (Vanuatu, New Guinea, and Tonga). When a longer time window is considered (e.g., 20 years or 1989-2009), 30 out of 96 regions have a high potential. Many of these regions are located near areas of high population density. These determinations do not preclude rupture of other fault segments, with less than a 50% chance in 10 or 20 years, or large and great earthquakes in areas we have not studied in detail. While this study has summarized the seismic potential for a large number of regions around the circum-Pacific, there are still a number of geographic and seismotectonic regions that need to be considered, including Indonesia, the Philippines, New Zealand, and the countries that surround the Caribbean basin. ?? 1991 Birkha??user Verlag.

Pure and Applied Geophysics PAGEOPH↗
USGS1990

Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude ≥ 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.

central and eastern United States↗