Geology topics

S.J. Wilson

Publications and source records attributed to S.J. Wilson.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

Regional long-term production modeling from a single well test, Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well, Alaska North Slope

Following the results from the open-hole formation pressure response test in the BPXA-DOE-USGS Mount Elbert Gas Hydrate Stratigraphic Test Well (Mount Elbert well) using Schlumberger's Modular Dynamics Formation Tester (MDT) wireline tool, the International Methane Hydrate Reservoir Simulator Code Comparison project performed long-term reservoir simulations on three different model reservoirs. These descriptions were based on 1) the Mount Elbert gas hydrate accumulation as delineated by an extensive history-matching exercise, 2) an estimation of the hydrate accumulation near the Prudhoe Bay L-pad, and 3) a reservoir that would be down-dip of the Prudhoe Bay L-pad and therefore warmer and deeper. All of these simulations were based, in part, on the results of the MDT results from the Mount Elbert Well. The comparison group's consensus value for the initial permeability of the hydrate-filled reservoir ( k = 0.12 mD) and the permeability model based on the MDT history match were used as the basis for subsequent simulations on the three regional scenarios. The simulation results of the five different simulation codes, CMG STARS, HydrateResSim, MH-21 HYDRES, STOMP-HYD, and TOUGH+HYDRATE exhibit good qualitative agreement and the variability of potential methane production rates from gas hydrate reservoirs is illustrated. As expected, the predicted methane production rate increased with increasing in situ reservoir temperature; however, a significant delay in the onset of rapid hydrate dissociation is observed for a cold, homogeneous reservoir and it is found to be repeatable. The inclusion of reservoir heterogeneity in the description of this cold reservoir is shown to eliminate this delayed production. Overall, simulations utilized detailed information collected across the Mount Elbert reservoir either obtained or determined from geophysical well logs, including thickness (37 ft), porosity (35%), hydrate saturation (65%), intrinsic permeability (1000 mD), pore water salinity (5 ppt), and formation temperature (3.3–3.9 °C). This paper presents the approach and results of extrapolating regional forward production modeling from history-matching efforts on the results from a single well test.

Marine and Petroleum Geology↗

USGS2011

Alaska North Slope regional gas hydrate production modeling forecasts

A series of gas hydrate development scenarios were created to assess the range of outcomes predicted for the possible development of the “Eileen” gas hydrate accumulation, North Slope, Alaska. Production forecasts for the “reference case” were built using the 2002 Mallik production tests, mechanistic simulation, and geologic studies conducted by the US Geological Survey. Three additional scenarios were considered: A “downside-scenario” which fails to identify viable production, an “upside-scenario” describes results that are better than expected. To capture the full range of possible outcomes and balance the downside case, an “extreme upside scenario” assumes each well is exceptionally productive. Starting with a representative type-well simulation forecasts, field development timing is applied and the sum of individual well forecasts creating the field-wide production forecast. This technique is commonly used to schedule large-scale resource plays where drilling schedules are complex and production forecasts must account for many changing parameters. The complementary forecasts of rig count, capital investment, and cash flow can be used in a pre-appraisal assessment of potential commercial viability. Since no significant gas sales are currently possible on the North Slope of Alaska, typical parameters were used to create downside, reference, and upside case forecasts that predict from 0 to 71 BM 3 (2.5 tcf) of gas may be produced in 20 years and nearly 283 BM 3 (10 tcf) ultimate recovery after 100 years. Outlining a range of possible outcomes enables decision makers to visualize the pace and milestones that will be required to evaluate gas hydrate resource development in the Eileen accumulation. Critical values of peak production rate, time to meaningful production volumes, and investments required to rule out a downside case are provided. Upside cases identify potential if both depressurization and thermal stimulation yield positive results. An “extreme upside” case captures the full potential of unconstrained development with widely spaced wells. The results of this study indicate that recoverable gas hydrate resources may exist in the Eileen accumulation and that it represents a good opportunity for continued research.

Alaska↗

USGS2009

Preliminary report on the commercial viability of gas production from natural gas hydrates

Economic studies on simulated gas hydrate reservoirs have been compiled to estimate the price of natural gas that may lead to economically viable production from the most promising gas hydrate accumulations. As a first estimate, $CDN 2005 12/Mscf is the lowest gas price that would allow economically viable production from gas hydrates in the absence of associated free gas, while an underlying gas deposit will reduce the viability price estimate to $CDN 2005 7.50/Mscf. Results from a recent analysis of the simulated production of natural gas from marine hydrate deposits are also considered in this report; on an IROR basis, it is $US 2008 3.50-4.00/Mscf more expensive to produce marine hydrates than conventional marine gas assuming the existence of sufficiently large marine hydrate accumulations. While these prices represent the best available estimates, the economic evaluation of a specific project is highly dependent on the producibility of the target zone, the amount of gas in place, the associated geologic and depositional environment, existing pipeline infrastructure, and local tariffs and taxes. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Energy Economics↗