Geology topics

Russell W. Perry

Publications and source records attributed to Russell W. Perry.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU, 1/1/2014 - 12/31/2014

The portion of the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ESU that spawns upstream of Lower Granite Dam transitioned from low to high abundance during 1992–2014 in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act recovery efforts and other Federally mandated actions. This annual report focuses on (1) numeric and habitat use responses by natural- and hatchery-origin spawners, (2) phenotypic and numeric responses by natural-origin juveniles, and (3) predator responses in the Snake River upper and lower reaches as abundance of adult and juvenile fall Chinook Salmon increased. Spawners have located and used most of the available spawning habitat and that habitat is gradually approaching redd capacity. Timing of spawning and fry emergence has been relatively stable; whereas the timing of parr dispersal from riverine rearing habitat into Lower Granite Reservoir has become earlier as apparent abundance of juveniles has increased. Growth rate (g/d) and dispersal size of parr also declined as apparent abundance of juveniles increased. Passage timing of smolts from the two Snake River reaches has become earlier and downstream movement rate faster as estimated abundance of fall Chinook Salmon smolts in Lower Granite Reservoir has increased. In 2014, consumption of subyearlings by Smallmouth Bass was highest in the upper reach which had the highest abundance of Bass. With a few exceptions, predation tended to decrease seasonally from April through early July. A release of hatchery fish in mid-May significantly increased subyearling consumption by the following day. We estimated that over 600,000 subyearling fall Chinook Salmon were lost to Smallmouth Bass predation along the free-flowing Snake River in 2014. More information on predation is presented in Appendix A.3 (page 51). These findings coupled with stock-recruitment analyses presented in this report provide evidence for density-dependence in the Snake River reaches and in Lower Granite Reservoir that was influenced by the expansion of the recovery program. The long-term goal is to use the information covered here in a comprehensive modeling effort to conduct action effectiveness and uncertainty research and to inform fish population, hydrosystem, harvest, hatchery, and predation and invasive species management RM&E.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2015

Evaluation of stream flow effects on smolt survival in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, 2012-2014

The influence of stream flow on survival of emigrating juvenile (smolts) Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead trout O. mykiss is of key management interest. However, few studies have quantified flow effects on smolt migration survival, and available information does not indicate a consistent flow-survival relationship within the typical range of flows under management control. It is hypothesized that smolt migration and dam passage survival are positively correlated with stream flow because higher flows increase migration rates, potentially reducing exposure to predation, and reduce delays in reservoirs. However, available empirical data are somewhat equivocal concerning the influence of flow on smolt survival and the underlying mechanisms driving this relationship. Stream flow effects on survival of emigrating anadromous salmonids in the Yakima Basin have concerned water users and fisheries managers for over 20 years, and previous studies do not provide sufficient information at the resolution necessary to inform water operations, which typically occur on a small spatiotemporal scale. Using a series of controlled flow releases from 2012-2014, combined with radio telemetry, we quantified the relationship between flow and smolt survival from Roza Dam 208 km downstream to the Yakima River mouth, as well as for specific routes of passage at Roza Dam. A novel multistate mark-recapture model accounted for weekly variation in flow conditions experienced by radio-tagged fish. Groups of fish were captured and radio-tagged at Roza Dam and released at two locations, upstream at the Big Pines Campground (river kilometer [rkm] 211) and downstream in the Roza Dam tailrace (rkm 208). A total of 904 hatchery-origin yearling Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha were captured in the Roza Dam fish bypass, radio-tagged and released upstream of Roza Dam. Two hundred thirty seven fish were released in the tailrace of Roza Dam. Fish released in the tailrace of Roza Dam were tagged concurrently with fish released upstream of the dam using identical tagging methods. Tagging and release events were conducted to target a range of flow conditions indicative of flows observed during the typical migration period (March-May) for juvenile spring Chinook salmon in the Yakima River. Three, five and four separate upstream releases were conducted in 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively, and at least 43 fish were released alive on each occasion. The release sample sizes in 2014 were much larger (~130) compared to previous years for the purpose of increasing precision of survival estimates across the range of flows tested. Migration movements of radio-tagged spring Chinook salmon smolts were monitored with an array of telemetry receiver stations (fixed sites) that extended 208 rkm downstream from the forebay of Roza Dam to the mouth of the Yakima River. Fixed monitoring sites included the forebay of Roza Dam (rkm 208), the tailrace of Roza Dam (rkm 207.9), the mouth of Wenas Creek (rkm 199.2), the mouth of the Naches River (two sites, rkm 189.4), Sunnyside Dam (two sites, rkm 169.1), Prosser Dam (rkm 77.2), and the mouth of the Yakima River (two sites, rkm2 3). This array segregated the study area into four discrete reaches in which survival of tagged fish was estimated. Aerial and underwater antennas were also used to monitor tagged fish at Roza Dam. Aerial antennas were located in the forebay, on the East gate, on the West gate, and in the tailrace of Roza Dam. Underwater antennas were located in the fish bypass, upstream of the East gate, and upstream of the West gate to collect route-specific passage data for tagged fish. Additional years of data collection and analysis could alter or improve our understanding of the influence of flow and other environmental factors on smolt survival in the Yakima River. Nevertheless, during 2012-2014, yearling hatchery Chinook salmon smolt emigration survival was significantly associated with stream flow in the

Report↗

USGS2014

Performance of a surface bypass structure to enhance juvenile steelhead passage and survival at Lower Granite Dam, Washington

An integral part of efforts to recover stocks of Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead O. mykiss in Pacific Northwest rivers is to increase passage efficacy and survival of juveniles past hydroelectric dams. As part of this effort, we evaluated the efficacy of a prototype surface bypass structure, the removable spillway weir (RSW), installed in a spillbay at Lower Granite Dam, Washington, on the Snake River during 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2006. Radio-tagged juvenile steelhead were released upstream from the dam and their route of passage through the turbines, juvenile bypass, spillway, or RSW was recorded. The RSW was operated in an on-or-off condition and passed 3–13% of the total discharge at the dam when it was on. Poisson rate models were fit to the passage counts of hatchery- and natural-origin juvenile steelhead to predict the probability of fish passing the dam. Main-effect predictor variables were RSW operation, diel period, day of the year, proportion of flow passed by the spillway, and total discharge at the dam. The combined fish passage through the RSW and spillway was 55–85% during the day and 37–61% during the night. The proportion of steelhead passing through nonturbine routes was <88% when the RSW was off during the day and increased to >95% when the RSW was on during the day. The ratio of the proportion of steelhead passed to the proportion of water passing the RSW was from 6.3:1 to 10.0:1 during the day and from 2.7:1 to 5.2:1 during the night. Steelhead passing through the RSW exited the tailrace about 15 min faster than fish passing through the spillway. Mark–recapture single-release survival estimates for steelhead passing the RSW ranged from 0.95 to 1.00. The RSW appeared to be an effective bypass structure compared with other routes of fish passage at the dam.

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2014

Using cure models for analyzing the influence of pathogens on salmon survival

Parasites and pathogens influence the size and stability of wildlife populations, yet many population models ignore the population-level effects of pathogens. Standard survival analysis methods (e.g., accelerated failure time models) are used to assess how survival rates are influenced by disease. However, they assume that each individual is equally susceptible and will eventually experience the event of interest; this assumption is not typically satisfied with regard to pathogens of wildlife populations. In contrast, mixture cure models, which comprise logistic regression and survival analysis components, allow for different covariates to be entered into each part of the model and provide better predictions of survival when a fraction of the population is expected to survive a disease outbreak. We fitted mixture cure models to the host–pathogen dynamics of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and Coho Salmon O. kisutch and the myxozoan parasite Ceratomyxa shasta . Total parasite concentration, water temperature, and discharge were used as covariates to predict the observed parasite-induced mortality in juvenile salmonids collected as part of a long-term monitoring program in the Klamath River, California. The mixture cure models predicted the observed total mortality well, but some of the variability in observed mortality rates was not captured by the models. Parasite concentration and water temperature were positively associated with total mortality and the mortality rate of both Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon. Discharge was positively associated with total mortality for both species but only affected the mortality rate for Coho Salmon. The mixture cure models provide insights into how daily survival rates change over time in Chinook Salmon and Coho Salmon after they become infected with C. shasta .

Oregon, California↗

USGS2014

Correlation of gene expression and contaminat concentrations in wild largescale suckers: a field-based study

Toxic compounds such as organochlorine pesticides (OCs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants (PBDEs) have been detected in fish, birds, and aquatic mammals that live in the Columbia River or use food resources from within the river. We developed a custom microarray for largescale suckers (Catostomus macrocheilus) and used it to investigate the molecular effects of contaminant exposure on wild fish in the Columbia River. Using Significance Analysis of Microarrays (SAM) we identified 72 probes representing 69 unique genes with expression patterns that correlated with hepatic tissue levels of OCs, PCBs, or PBDEs. These genes were involved in many biological processes previously shown to respond to contaminant exposure, including drug and lipid metabolism, apoptosis, cellular transport, oxidative stress, and cellular chaperone function. The relation between gene expression and contaminant concentration suggests that these genes may respond to environmental contaminant exposure and are promising candidates for further field and laboratory studies to develop biomarkers for monitoring exposure of wild fish to contaminant mixtures found in the Columbia River Basin. The array developed in this study could also be a useful tool for studies involving endangered sucker species and other sucker species used in contaminant research.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2014

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU, 1/1/2012 – 12/31/2013: Annual report, 1991-029-00

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2013

Comparing effects of transmitters within and among populations: application to swimming performance of juvenile Chinook salmon

The sensitivity of fish to a transmitter depends on factors such as environmental conditions, fish morphology, life stage, rearing history, and tag design. However, synthesizing general trends across studies is difficult because each study focuses on a particular performance measure, species, life stage, and transmitter model. These differences motivated us to develop simple metrics that allow effects of transmitters to be compared among different species, populations, or studies. First, we describe how multiple regression analysis can be used to quantify the effect of tag burden (transmitter mass relative to fish mass) on measures of physiological performance. Next, we illustrate how the slope and intercept parameters can be used to calculate two summary statistics: θ, which estimates the tag burden threshold above which the performance of tagged fish begins to decline relative to untagged fish; and k, which measures the percentage change in performance per percentage point increase in tag burden. When θ = 0, k provides a single measure of the tag's effect that can be compared among species, populations, or studies. We apply this analysis to two different experiments that measure the critical swimming speed (U crit) of tagged juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. In both experiments, U crit declined as tag burden increased, but we found no significant threshold in swimming performance. Estimates of θ ranged from −0.6% to 2.1% among six unique treatment groups, indicating that swimming performance began to decline at a relatively low tag burden. Estimates of k revealed that U crit of tagged fish declined by −2.68% to −4.86% for each 1% increase in tag burden. Both θ and k varied with the tag's antenna configuration, tag implantation method, and posttagging recovery time. Our analytical approach can be used to gain insights across populations to better understand factors affecting the ability of fish to carry a transmitter.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2013

Identifying when tagged fishes have been consumed by piscivorous predators: application of multivariate mixture models to movement parameters of telemetered fishes

Background Consumption of telemetered fishes by piscivores is problematic for telemetry studies because tag detections from the piscivore could introduce bias into the analysis of telemetry data. We illustrate the use of multivariate mixture models to estimate group membership (smolt or predator) of telemetered juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), juvenile steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ), striped bass ( Morone saxatilis ), smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu ) and spotted bass ( M. punctulatus ) in the Sacramento River, CA, USA. First, we estimated two types of track statistics from spatially explicit two-dimensional movement tracks of telemetered fishes: the Lévy exponent ( b ) and tortuosity ( τ ). Second, we hypothesized that the distribution of each track statistic would differ between predators and smolts. To estimate the distribution of track statistics for putative predators and smolts, we fitted a bivariate normal mixture model to the mixed distribution of track statistics. Lastly, we classified each track as a smolt or predator using parameter estimates from the mixture model to estimate the probability that each track was that of a predator or smolt. Results Tracks classified as predators exhibited movement that was tortuous and consistent with prey searching tactics, whereas tracks classified as smolts were characterized by directed, linear downstream movement. The estimated mean tortuosity was 0.565 (SD = 0.07) for predators and 0.944 (SD = 0.001) for smolts. The estimated mean Lévy exponent was 1.84 (SD = 1.23) for predators and -0.304 (SD = 1.46) for smolts. We correctly classified 90% of the Micropterus species and 72% of the striped bass as predators. For tagged smolts, 80% of Chinook salmon and 74% of steelhead trout were not classified as predators. Conclusions Mixture models proved valuable as a means to differentiate between salmonid smolts and predators that consumed salmonid smolts. However, successful application of this method requires that telemetered fishes and their predators exhibit measurable differences in movement behavior. Our approach is flexible, allows inclusion of multiple track statistics and improves upon rule-based manual classification methods.

California↗

USGS2013

The Regional Salmon Outmigration Study--survival and migration routing of juvenile Chinook salmon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta during the winter of 2008-09

Juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) emigrating from natal tributaries of the Sacramento River may use a number of migration routes to navigate the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter called “the Delta”), each of which may influence their probability of surviving. We applied a mark-recapture model to data from acoustically tagged juvenile late fall-run Chinook salmon that migrated through the Delta during the winter of 2008–09 to estimate route entrainment, survival, and migration times through the Delta. A tag-life study was conducted to determine the potential for premature tag failure. Tag failure began after 12 days and continued until the 45th day. Travel times of tagged fish exceeded minimum tag-failure times, indicating that survival estimates obtained from this study were negatively biased due to tag failure prior to fish exiting the Delta. Survival estimates were not adjusted and represent the joint probability of tag survival and fish survival. However, relative comparisons of survival among Chinook salmon choosing different routes appeared to be robust to tag failure, and migration-routing parameters were unaffected by tag failure. Migration-routing patterns were consistent among release groups. The Sacramento River was the primary migration route for all release groups except one. The percentage of fish entering the Sacramento River ranged from 33 to 55 percent. Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs were the secondary migration route for 9 of the 10 releases. The percentage of fish migrating through this route ranged from 10 to 35 percent. Entrainment into the interior Delta ranged from 15 to 33 percent. The Delta Cross Channel gates were open for 7 of the 10 releases. Entrainment into the interior Delta through the cross channel ranged from 1 to 27 percent. We estimated route-specific survival for 10 release groups that were released between November 14, 2008, and January 19, 2009. Population-level survival through the Delta (S Delta ) ranged from 0.019 (standard error of 0.012) to 0.277 (standard error of 0.041) among releases, which represent the probability of a fish surviving from Sacramento to Chipps Island with an operational transmitter. Sacramento River flows throughout the study period were approximately 8,000–15,000 cubic feet per second at Freeport, suggesting that variability in flow contributed little to differences in survival between releases. Fish migrating through the Sacramento River had the highest survival for most releases. Survival in Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs was slightly lower than survival in the Sacramento River for 7 of the 10 releases, but higher than survival in the Sacramento River for 3 releases. Survival in the interior Delta was lowest for all release groups except for one release in November. With the exception of this November release, survival patterns across release groups were similar to those of previous studies.

California↗

USGS2013

Theoretical life history responses of juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss to changes in food availability using a dynamic state-dependent approach

Marine subsidies can play an important role in the growth, survival, and migratory behavior of rearing juvenile salmonids. Availability of high-energy, marine-derived food sources during critical decision windows may influence the timing of emigration or the decision to forego emigration completely and remain in the freshwater environment. Increasing growth and growth rate during these decision windows may result in an altered juvenile population structure, which will ultimately affect the adult population age-structure. We used a state dependent model to understand how the juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss population structure may respond to increased availability of salmon eggs in their diet during critical decision windows. Our models predicted an increase in smolt production until coho salmon eggs comprised more than 50 percent of juvenile O. mykiss diet at the peak of the spawning run. At higher-than intermediate levels of egg consumption, smolt production decreased owing to increasing numbers of fish adopting a resident life-history strategy. Additionally, greater growth rates decreased the number of age-3 smolts and increased the number of age-2 smolts. Increased growth rates with higher egg consumption also decreased the age at which fish adopted the resident pathway. Our models suggest that the introduction of a high-energy food source during critical periods of the year could be sufficient to increase smolt production.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Using broad landscape level features to predict redd densities of steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the Methow River watershed, Washington

We used broad-scale landscape feature variables to model redd densities of spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) in the Methow River watershed. Redd densities were estimated from redd counts conducted from 2005 to 2007 and 2009 for steelhead trout and 2005 to 2009 for spring Chinook salmon. These densities were modeled using generalized linear mixed models. Variables examined included primary and secondary geology type, habitat type, flow type, sinuosity, and slope of stream channel. In addition, we included spring effect and hatchery effect variables to account for high densities of redds near known springs and hatchery outflows. Variables were associated with National Hydrography Database reach designations for modeling redd densities within each reach. Reaches were assigned a dominant habitat type, geology, mean slope, and sinuosity. The best fit model for spring Chinook salmon included sinuosity, critical slope, habitat type, flow type, and hatchery effect. Flow type, slope, and habitat type variables accounted for most of the variation in the data. The best fit model for steelhead trout included year, habitat type, flow type, hatchery effect, and spring effect. The spring effect, flow type, and hatchery effect variables explained most of the variation in the data. Our models illustrate how broad-scale landscape features may be used to predict spawning habitat over large areas where fine-scale data may be lacking.

Washington↗

USGS2012

Potential effects of changes in temperature and food resources on life history trajectories of juvenile Oncorhynchus mykiss

Increasing temperatures and changes in food resources owing to climate change may alter the growth and migratory behavior of organisms. This is particularly important for salmonid species like Oncorhynchus mykiss , where some individuals remain in freshwater to mature (nonanadromous Rainbow Trout) and others migrate to sea (anadromous Steelhead). Whether one strategy is adopted over the other may depend on the individual's growth and size. In this study, we explored (1) how water temperature in Beaver Creek, a tributary to the Methow River, Washington, may increase under four climate scenarios, (2) how these thermal changes may alter the life history trajectory followed by O. mykiss (i.e., when and if to smolt), and (3) how changes in food quality or quantity might interact with increasing temperatures. We combined bioenergetic and state-dependent life history models parameterized for O. mykiss in Beaver Creek to mimic baseline life history trajectories. Based on our simulations, when mean water temperature was increased by 0.6°C there was a reduction in life history diversity and a 57% increase in the number of individuals becoming smolts. When mean temperature was increased by 2.7°C, it resulted in 87% fewer smolts than in the baseline and fewer life history trajectories expressed. A reduction in food resources led to slower growth, more life history trajectories, and a greater proportion of smolts. In contrast, when food resources were increased, fish grew faster, which reduced the proportion of smolts and life history diversity. Our modeling suggests that warmer water temperatures associated with climate change could decrease the life history diversity of O. mykiss in the central portion of their range and thereby reduce resiliency to other disturbances. In addition, changes in food resources could mediate or exacerbate the effect of water temperature on the life history trajectories of O. mykiss .

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2012

Estimating and predicting collection probability of fish at dams using multistate modeling

Dams can be equipped with a bypass that routes a portion of the fish that enter the turbine intakes away from the powerhouse into flumes, where they can be counted. Daily passage abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of fish counted in the bypass by the sampling rate and then dividing the resulting quotient by the collection probability (i.e., the proportion of the fish population passing the dam that is bypassed). We used multistate mark–recapture modeling to evaluate six candidate models for predicting the collection probabilities of radio-tagged subyearling fall Chinook salmon (n = 3,852) as a function of 1–2-d time periods (general model), four different combinations of outflow (i.e., the total volume of water passing the dam) and turbine allocation (i.e., the proportion of outflow directed through the turbines), and a null (intercept only) model. The best-fit model was the additive combination of turbine allocation and outflow, which explained 71% of the null deviance. Cross validation of the best-fit model accounted for the variation that may arise from different data sets and the ensuing parameter values on the collection probability estimates and yielded a standard error of 0.613 that can be used to construct approximate 95% prediction intervals in nonstudy years. Such estimates have been unavailable and will be useful anywhere estimates of daily passage abundance at dams with bypasses are needed to manage migratory fishes.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2012

Adjusting survival estimates for premature transmitter failure: A case study from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

In telemetry studies, premature tag failure causes negative bias in fish survival estimates because tag failure is interpreted as fish mortality. We used mark-recapture modeling to adjust estimates of fish survival for a previous study where premature tag failure was documented. High rates of tag failure occurred during the Vernalis Adaptive Management Plan’s (VAMP) 2008 study to estimate survival of fall-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) during migration through the San Joaquin River and Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Due to a high rate of tag failure, the observed travel time distribution was likely negatively biased, resulting in an underestimate of tag survival probability in this study. Consequently, the bias-adjustment method resulted in only a small increase in estimated fish survival when the observed travel time distribution was used to estimate the probability of tag survival. Since the bias-adjustment failed to remove bias, we used historical travel time data and conducted a sensitivity analysis to examine how fish survival might have varied across a range of tag survival probabilities. Our analysis suggested that fish survival estimates were low (95% confidence bounds range from 0.052 to 0.227) over a wide range of plausible tag survival probabilities (0.48–1.00), and this finding is consistent with other studies in this system. When tags fail at a high rate, available methods to adjust for the bias may perform poorly. Our example highlights the importance of evaluating the tag life assumption during survival studies, and presents a simple framework for evaluating adjusted survival estimates when auxiliary travel time data are available.

California↗

USGS2012

Simulated effects of dam removal on water temperatures along the Klamath River, Oregon and California, using 2010 Biological Opinion flow requirements

Computer model simulations were run to determine the effects of dam removal on water temperatures along the Klamath River, located in south-central Oregon and northern California, using flow requirements defined in the 2010 Biological Opinion of the National Marine Fisheries Service. A one-dimensional, daily averaged water temperature model (River Basin Model-10) developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 10, Seattle, Washington, was used in the analysis. This model had earlier been configured and calibrated for the Klamath River by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Klamath Secretarial Determination to simulate the effects of dam removal on water temperatures for current (2011) and future climate change scenarios. The analysis for this report was performed outside of the scope of the Klamath Secretarial Determination process at the request of the Bureau of Reclamation Technical Services Office, Denver, Colorado.  For this analysis, two dam scenarios were simulated: “dams in” and “dams out.” In the “dams in” scenario, existing dams in the Klamath River were kept in place. In the “dams out” scenario, the river was modeled as a natural stream, without the J.C. Boyle, Copco1, Copco2, and Iron Gate Dams, for the entire simulation period. Output from the two dam scenario simulations included daily water temperatures simulated at 29 locations for a 50-year period along the Klamath River between river mile 253 (downstream of Link River Dam) and the Pacific Ocean. Both simulations used identical flow requirements, formulated in the 2010 Biological Opinion, and identical climate conditions based on the period 1961–2009.  Simulated water temperatures from January through June at almost all locations between J.C. Boyle Reservoir and the Pacific Ocean were higher for the “dams out” scenario than for the “dams in” scenario. The simulated mean monthly water temperature increase was highest [1.7–2.2 degrees Celsius (°C)] in May downstream of Iron Gate Dam. However, from August to December, dam removal generally cooled water temperatures. During these months, water temperatures decreased 1°C or more between Copco Lake and locations 50 miles or more downstream. The greatest mean monthly temperature decrease was 4°C in October just downstream of Iron Gate Dam. Near the ocean, the effects of dam removal were small (less than 0.2°C) for most months. However, the mean November temperature near the ocean was almost 0.5°C cooler with dam removal.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2012

A multi-year analysis of spillway survival for juvenile salmonids as a function of spill bay operations at McNary Dam, Washington and Oregon, 2004-09

We analyzed 6 years (2004-09) of passage and survival data collected at McNary Dam to examine how spill bay operations affect survival of juvenile salmonids passing through the spillway at McNary Dam. We also examined the relations between spill bay operations and survival through the juvenile fish bypass in an attempt to determine if survival through the bypass is influenced by spill bay operations. We used a Cormack-Jolly-Seber release-recapture model (CJS model) to determine how the survival of juvenile salmonids passing through McNary Dam relates to spill bay operations. Results of these analyses, while not designed to yield predictive models, can be used to help develop dam-operation strategies that optimize juvenile salmonid survival. For example, increasing total discharge typically had a positive effect on both spillway and bypass survival for all species except sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka ). Likewise, an increase in spill bay discharge improved spillway survival for yearling Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), and an increase in spillway discharge positively affected spillway survival for juvenile steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). The strong linear relation between increased spill and increased survival indicates that increasing the amount of water through the spillway is one strategy that could be used to improve spillway survival for yearling Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead. However, increased spill did not improve spillway survival for subyearling Chinook salmon and sockeye salmon. Our results indicate that a uniform spill pattern would provide the highest spillway survival and bypass survival for subyearling Chinook salmon. Conversely, a predominantly south spill pattern provided the highest spillway survival for yearling Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead. Although spill pattern was not a factor for spillway survival of sockeye salmon, spill bay operations that optimize passage through the north and south spill bays maximized spillway survival for this species. Bypass survival of yearling Chinook salmon could be improved by optimizing conditions to facilitate bypass passage at night, but the method to do so is not apparent from this analysis because photoperiod was the only factor affecting bypass survival based on the best and only supported model. Bypass survival of juvenile steelhead would benefit from lower water temperatures and increased total and spillway discharge. Likewise, subyearling Chinook salmon bypass survival would improve with lower water temperatures, increased total discharge, and a uniform spill pattern.

Oregon;Washington↗

USGS2012

Survival and migration route probabilities of juvenile Chinook salmon in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta during the winter of 2009-10

Juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) emigrating from natal tributaries of the Sacramento River may use a number of migration routes to negotiate the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereafter, "the Delta"), each of which may influence their probability of surviving. We applied a mark-recapture model to data from acoustically tagged juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon that migrated through the Delta during the winter of 2009-10 (hereafter, 2010). This report presents findings from our fourth year of research. We estimated route-specific survival for four release groups: two release groups that migrated through the Delta in December 2009 and January 2010, and two release groups that migrated during February 2010. Population-level survival through the Delta ( S Delta ) ranged from 0.374 (SE = 0.040) to 0.524 (SE = 0.034) among releases. Although river flows for the February release groups were substantially higher (20,000-40,000 ft 3 /s at Freeport) than for the December release groups (about 10,000 ft 3 /s), S Delta did not differ considerably between release groups. Among migration routes, fish migrating through the Sacramento River exhibited the highest survival, and fish entering the interior Delta exhibited the lowest survival. Fish entering Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs had lower survival than fish entering the Sacramento River during December, but similar survival during February. These patterns were consistent among release groups, and strikingly similar to patterns observed in previous years. Migration routing varied among release groups partly because of differences in river discharge between releases. For the two December release groups, 26.5 and 28.9 percent of fish entered the interior Delta; for the two February release groups, 10.4 and 17.9 percent of fish entered the interior Delta. Differences in routing probabilities between December and February are partly related to the inverse relationship between flow and the fraction of discharge entering the interior Delta. The proportion of fish diverted into the interior Delta also can be affected by the status of the Delta Cross Channel's gates. The fraction of fish entering Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs also varied considerably among release groups from 22.1 to 44.7 percent, and did not appear correlated to river discharge. For example, the lowest and highest proportion of fish entering Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs occurred during February. Because fish entering Sutter and Steamboat Sloughs bypass the entrance to the interior Delta, a high proportion of fish migrating into this route reduces the proportion of fish entering the interior Delta.

California↗

USGS2012

Using mark-recapture models to estimate survival from telemetry data: Chapter 9.2

Analyzing telemetry data within a mark–recapture framework is a powerful approach for estimating demographic parameters (e.g., survival and movement probabilities) that might otherwise be difficult to measure. Yet many studies using telemetry techniques focus on fish behavior and fail to recognize the potential of telemetry data to provide information about fish survival. The sophistication of both mark–recapture modeling and telemetry has dramatically improved since the 1980s, largely due to technological advancements in computing power (for mark–recapture models) and electronic components (for telemetry). Such advances now allow mark–recapture models to take advantage of the detailed information that telemetry techniques can provide. The key feature of mark–recapture models is simultaneous estimation of detection and survival probabilities. With telemetry, a “capture” event consists of detecting a given tag code one or more times at a specific location or time. By contrast, in some studies interest may focus on the probability of detecting a single tag transmission (see Sections 7.2 and 9.1). Compared to conventional mark and recapture methods, telemetry methods often have greater detection probabilities due to large detection ranges, increased “effort” (i.e., continuous monitoring with autonomous receivers), and ability to simultaneously monitor multiple locations. Nonetheless, perfect detectability is rare in telemetry studies because both random (e.g., from electronic noise) and nonrandom processes (e.g., receiver loses power temporarily) can allow a fish to pass a receiver undetected. Failure to account for imperfect detection can lead to serious bias in survival estimates. When using telemetry to estimate survival, it is therefore critical to explicitly estimate detection probabilities to ensure unbiased estimates of survival (see Section 7.2). Fortunately, using telemetry techniques and mark–recapture models together yields the best of both worlds: Well-designed telemetry systems deliver high detection probabilities that result in precise estimates from small sample sizes. Mark–recapture models ensure estimates of the demographic parameters are unbiased with respect to the detection process.

Book chapter↗