Geology topics

Russell W. Perry

Publications and source records attributed to Russell W. Perry.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2019

Juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) survival in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, 2018

A field study was conducted to estimate survival of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in Lookout Point Reservoir, Oregon, during 2018. The study consisted of releasing three groups of genetically-marked fish into the reservoir, and sampling them monthly. Juveniles were released during April 10–13 (116,708 fish), May 15–18 (31,911 fish), and June 19–20 (11,758 fish). Reservoir sampling began in May and occurred monthly through October, consisting of 5-day events where juvenile Chinook salmon were collected using electrofishing, shoreline traps, and gill nets. Data were analyzed using a staggered release-recovery model and a parentage-based tagging (PBT) N-mixture model. The staggered release-recovery model provided survival estimates from three periods: mid-April to mid-May (SSRRM1); mid-May to mid-June (SSRRM2); and mid-April to mid-June (SSRRM12). Multiple estimates of survival were possible for each period using different combinations of recovery data from the three groups of fish that were released. Survival probability estimates for SSRRM1 ranged from 0.98520 to 0.98954; estimates for SSRRM2 ranged from 0.09338 to 0.62142; and the estimate for cumulative survival from mid-April to mid-June (SSRRM12) were 0.75211. We suspect that issues with release groups in May ( R 2 ) and June ( R 3 ) led to biased survival results using the staggered release-recovery model. The PBT N-mixture model provided survival estimates from six periods: mid-April to mid-May (SNMIX1); mid-May to mid-June (SNMIX2), mid-June to mid-July (SNMIX3), mid-July to mid-August (SNMIX4), mid-August to mid-September (SNMIX5); and mid-September to mid-October (SNMIX6). Survival estimates from the PBT N-mixture model were lowest for SNMIX6 (0.41620) and highest for SNMIX1 (0.79587). These results differed from those in 2017 when monthly survival increased across months. This suggests that one or more factors could have affected juvenile Chinook salmon survival in Lookout Point Reservoir. One possible factor could be copepods (which were highly prevalent on juvenile Chinook salmon during summer 2018), but environmental factors such as reserveroir elevation, discharge at Lookout Point Dam, and fish distributions within the reservoir differed between study years. Two PBT N-mixture models provided cumulative survival estimates from mid-April to mid-October. Estimates from the two models were 0.061 and 0.039, which suggests that survival of subyearling Chinook salmon in Lookout Point Reservoir was very low in 2018. Additional research is recommended to better understand inter-annual variability of subyearling Chinook salmon in the reservoir and to gain insights into factors that affect their survival.

Oregon↗

USGS2019

A field evaluation of the growth and survival of age-0 Oncorhynchus mykiss tagged with 8-mm passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags

Background In fish tagging studies, tag size limits the size of fish that can be tagged, the fraction of a population that can be represented, and ultimately inferences that can be made about the study population, particularly when juvenile fish are the subject of interest. Introduction of an 8-mm passive integrated transponder (PIT) reduced the minimum taggable size of fish, but it has not been evaluated in field trials. We evaluated the growth and survival of age-0 Oncorhynchus mykiss tagged with 8-mm PIT tags in four streams in southwest Washington, USA. Results A total of 351 PIT tagged fish and 340 control fish (marked with pelvic fin clips) were released, but recapture rates were low, particularly for control fish. Growth in length and mass did not differ between small (42–54 mm) and large (55–64 mm) PIT tagged fish. There was a slightly positive, but weak, relation between tag burden and growth in mass; however, there was considerable variability in this relation ( R 2 = 0.115). Summer to autumn joint probability of fish surviving and remaining in the study area estimated with a Bayesian mark-recapture model ranged from 0.228 to 0.478 in study streams. We found no significant relation between tag burden and survival, suggesting neither tag burden nor fish size at tagging affected survival. Conclusions Although this study was limited in scope, it provided insight into how age-0 O. mykiss tagged with 8-mm PIT tags grew and survived under natural conditions. We showed that fish as small as 42 mm could be tagged without detrimental effects, which should allow researchers to represent a larger portion of study populations through PIT tagging.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Assessment of operational and structural factors influencing performance of fish collectors in forebays of high-head dams

Providing efficient downstream passage is critical for improving populations of migratory fishes in impounded river systems. High‐head dams, such as those used for water storage or flood‐risk management, pose unique passage challenges requiring unique solutions. Systems to collect fish in dam forebays (“forebay collectors”) for transport to downstream release locations have been used at some high‐head dams in the western United States since the 1950s. Collection efficiency of these facilities has ranged from nearly 0% to 100%, suggesting the need for a better understanding of factors affecting performance in these complex environments if they are to be designed and deployed at new sites. We compiled information on environmental, structural, and performance characteristics of seven existing forebay collectors to quantify factors affecting their performance based on a meta‐analysis using a data set containing 52 separate collection estimates. Covariates included species type (steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha, Coho Salmon O. kisutch, and Sockeye Salmon O. nerka), collector inflow, collector entrance area, relative size of the dam forebay, and whether or not nets were used to enhance collection. We found that inflow, the use of lead nets, the size of the collector entrance area, the relative size of the dam forebay, and the interaction between collector entrance and forebay areas were significant predictors of collection performance. There was also evidence for differences between species. Chinook Salmon exhibited the lowest collection rates among the projects we examined, while steelhead collection rates were highest. These results provide guidance to design more efficient forebay collectors and improve the success of existing systems.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2019

Evaluation of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) fry survival at Lookout Point Reservoir, western Oregon, 2017

A field study was conducted to estimate survival of fry-sized juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in Lookout Point Reservoir, western Oregon, during 2017. The field study consisted of releasing three groups of genetically marked fish in the reservoir and monthly fish sampling. Fish were released during April 18–19 (43,950 fish), May 30–June 2 (44,145 fish), and on June 28, 2017 (3,920 fish). Reservoir sampling began in May and occurred monthly through October, consisting of 5-day events where juvenile Chinook salmon were collected using various gear types (electrofishing, shoreline traps, gill nets). Data were analyzed using two models: (1) a staggered release-recovery model (SRRM), and (2) a parentage-based tagging (PBT) N -mixture model. The SRRM provided survival estimates from two periods: (1) mid-April to late May (S SRRM1 ), and (2) late May to late June (S SRRM2 ). Multiple estimates of survival were possible for each period using different combinations of recovery data from the three groups of fish that were released. Survival estimates for S SRRM1 ranged from 0.470 to 0.520. Estimates for S SRRM2 ranged from 0.968 to 0.969; cumulative survival from mid-April to late June (S SRRM2 ) was estimated at 0.870. We suspect that issues with the third release group led to biased survival results using the SRRM. The PBT N -mixture model provided survival estimates from six periods: (1) mid-April to mid-May (S NMIX1 ), (2) mid-May to mid-June (S NMIX2 ), (3) mid-June to mid-July (S NMIX3 ), (4) mid-July to mid-August (S NMIX4 ), (5) mid-August to mid-September (S NMIX5 ), and (6) mid-September to mid-October (S NMIX6 ). Survival estimates from the PBT N -mixture model were lowest for S NMIX1 (0.461) and increased monthly to a high of 0.970 for S NMIX6 . Cumulative survival from mid-April to mid-July was 0.233 and overall survival from mid-April to mid-October was 0.188. This suggests that most mortality occurred early in the study when juvenile Chinook salmon were small. This could be because these fish were most vulnerable to predation in the reservoir at that time. We determined that mortality of juvenile Chinook salmon was high in the reservoir during this study and similar estimates of parr-to-smolt survival have been observed in other systems. Additional analyses are required, including results from the second year of study (2018), and potentially similar evaluations will need to be made at other locations to determine if reservoir mortality is a limiting survival factor for Chinook salmon in the Middle Fork Willamette River.

Oregon↗

USGS2019

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon ESU

Idaho, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2018

Application of the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to the restoration reach of the Trinity River, California—Parameterization and calibration

Executive Summary In this report, we constructed and parameterized the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) for the 64-kilometer “Restoration Reach” of the Trinity River, just downstream of Lewiston Dam in northern California. S3 is a deterministic life-stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density-dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily timeseries of discharge, water temperature, and useable habitat area or carrying capacity. In turn, the physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units. The physical template of the Restoration Reach was formed by classifying the river into 356 meso-habitat units comprised of runs, riffles, and pools. For each habitat unit, we developed a timeseries of daily flow, water temperature, amount of available spawning habitat, and fry and parr carrying capacity. Capacity timeseries were constructed using state-of-the-art models of spatially explicit hydrodynamics and quantitative fish habitat relationships developed for the Trinity River. These variables were then used to drive population dynamics such as egg growth and survival and juvenile movement, growth, and survival.

California↗

USGS2018

Evaluation of sockeye salmon after passage through an innovative upstream fish-passage system at Cle Elum Dam, Washington, 2017

Executive Summary The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), working with the Yakima River Basin Water Enhancement Project Workgroup (composed of representatives of the Yakama Nation; Federal, State, county, and city governments; environmental organizations; and irrigation districts), developed the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan (Integrated Plan). The Integrated Plan identifies a comprehensive approach to water resources and ecosystem restoration improvements in the Yakima Basin to be implemented over a 30-year period. The Integrated Plan includes seven elements: Reservoir fish passage, Structural and operational changes to existing facilities, Surface water storage, Groundwater storage, Habitat/watershed protection and enhancement, Enhanced water conservation, and Market reallocation. The first listed element, reservoir fish passage, will be expensive and take many years to accomplish. Reclamation and Ecology decided to look at new and innovative means to provide passage that could help reduce project cost and construction timing while maintaining survival rates of traditional upstream passage facilities. Reclamation contracted with the U.S. Geological Survey to do a study to evaluate the outcome of passage through one innovative fish-passage system at Cle Elum Dam, the first Integrated Plan reservoir fish-passage project being implemented.

Washington↗

USGS2018

Survival, travel time, and utilization of Yolo Bypass, California, by outmigrating acoustic-tagged late-fall Chinook salmon

Juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) migrating through California's Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta toward the Pacific Ocean face numerous challenges to their survival. The Yolo Bypass is a broad floodplain of the Sacramento River that floods in about 70 percent of years in response to large, uncontrolled runoff events. As one of the routes juvenile salmon may utilize, the Yolo Bypass has recently received attention for having potential benefit to rearing and migrating salmon. Consideration is being given to a plan to build a cut or “notch” in the Fremont Weir to increase juvenile salmon access to the Yolo Bypass. To help provide information about the potential benefit of such a plan, we analyzed data from a telemetry study conducted in February and March 2016 by the U.S. Geological Survey and California Department of Water Resources to estimate entrainment into and distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon within the Yolo Bypass, and to compare survival and travel time through the Yolo Bypass to other routes in the Delta. We also estimated juvenile Chinook salmon survival through three short reaches of the Sacramento River where the proposed California WaterFix North Delta Diversion intakes would divert water to export facilities to provide baseline information against which any effects of those intakes could be measured in the future. We found that entrainment into the Yolo Bypass varied widely and was quite high only at the peak of the March 2016 flood. Spatial distribution of juvenile Chinook salmon within the Yolo Bypass was fairly even for fish entering the Yolo Bypass over the Fremont Weir, but increasingly skewed toward the east bank for fish released within the Yolo Bypass. Survival within Yolo Bypass was not significantly different for fish based on spatial distribution. Survival through the Delta for fish migrating through the Yolo Bypass was generally on par with the weighted survival through the Delta of fish migrating through all other routes. Survival was highest for fish remaining in the Sacramento River and lowest for those entrained into the Interior Delta via Georgiana Slough. Survival through the short section of the Sacramento River near the proposed North Delta Diversion intakes was high.

California↗

USGS2018

Responses of hatchery‐ and natural‐origin adult spring Chinook Salmon to a trap‐and‐haul reintroduction program

The construction of impassable dams severely affected many Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. populations, resulting in reintroduction efforts that are now focused on returning anadromous fish to areas located upstream of these dams. A primary strategy for moving adult salmon and steelhead O. mykiss around a dam or multiple dams involves trapping fish downstream and transporting them to upstream areas (“trap and haul”) for spawning. We conducted a 4‐year radiotelemetry study to evaluate behavior and movement patterns of hatchery‐ and natural‐origin adult spring Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha after a trap‐and‐haul program was implemented around three dams on the Cowlitz River, Washington. A multistate model was used to describe how factors such as origin, sex, release site location, and discharge affected transition rates to riverine areas where spawning habitat was located. Natural‐origin Chinook Salmon moved upstream from a reservoir release site and entered one of two rivers more quickly and in greater proportions than hatchery‐origin fish. Results from the multistate model indicated that transition rates from the reservoir to the Cowlitz River were 2.2 times higher for natural‐origin Chinook Salmon than for hatchery‐origin fish. About one‐half (49.6%) of the reservoir‐released hatchery‐origin Chinook Salmon moved upstream into the Cowlitz River or the Cispus River during the spawning period. The release of hatchery‐origin Chinook Salmon directly into these rivers increased the percentage of fish with river fates during the spawning period to 72.3–75.4%. Results from the multistate model showed that factors such as release site location, origin, day of year, and discharge were important predictors of transition intensities between specific locations in the study area. These findings illustrate the need to evaluate how salmon and steelhead respond to trap‐and‐haul methods, allowing for better management of reintroduction efforts in the future.

Washington↗

USGS2018

Effects of the proposed California WaterFix North Delta Diversion on survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, northern California

The California Department of Water Resources and Bureau of Reclamation propose new water intake facilities on the Sacramento River in northern California that would convey some of the water for export to areas south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereinafter referred to as the Delta) through tunnels rather than through the Delta. The collection of water intakes, tunnels, pumping facilities, associated structures, and proposed operations are collectively referred to as California WaterFix. The water intake facilities, hereinafter referred to as the North Delta Diversion (NDD), are proposed to be located on the Sacramento River downstream of the city of Sacramento and upstream of the first major river junction where Sutter Slough branches from the Sacramento River. The NDD can divert a maximum discharge of 9,000 cubic feet per second (ft3 /s) from the Sacramento River, which reduces the amount of Sacramento River inflow into the Delta. In this report, we conduct four analyses to investigate the effect of the NDD and its proposed operation on survival of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). All analyses used the results of a Bayesian survival model that allowed us to simulate travel time, migration routing, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through the Delta in response to NDD operations, which affected both inflows to the Delta and operation of the Delta Cross Channel (DCC). For the first analysis, we evaluated the effect of the NDD bypass rules on salmon survival. The NDD bypass rules are a set of operational rule curves designed to provide adaptive levels of fish protection by defining allowable diversion rates as a function of (1) Sacramento River discharge as measured at Freeport, and (2) time of year when endangered runs requiring the most protection are present. We determined that all bypass rule curves except constant low-level pumping (maximum diversion of 900 ft3 /s) could cause a sizeable decrease in survival by as much as 6–10 percentage points. The maximum decrease in survival occurred at an intermediate Sacramento River flow of about 20,000–30,000 ft3 /s. Diversion rates increased rapidly as Sacramento River flows increased from 20,000 ft3 /s to 30,000 ft3 /s, until a maximum diversion rate was reached at 9,000 ft3 /s. Because through-Delta survival increases sharply over this range of Sacramento River flow before beginning to level off with further flow increases, increasing diversion rates over this flow range causes a large decrease in survival relative to no diversion. For the second analysis, we applied the survival model to 82 years of daily simulated flows under the Proposed Action (PA) and No Action Alternative (NAA). The PA includes operation of the Central Valley Project/State Water Project with implementation of the NDD and its operations prescribed by the NDD bypass rules, whereas the NAA assumes system operations without implementation of the NDD. We also evaluated a “Level 1” (L1) scenario, which was similar to the PA scenario but applied the most protective bypass rule known as Level 1 post-pulse operations. We noted a high probability that survival under the PA scenario was lower than under the NAA scenario, and that travel time was longer under PA relative to NAA in most simulation years. However, the largest survival differences between the PA and NAA scenarios occurred during October–November and May–June. Although bypass rules are less restrictive during these periods, we determined that more frequent use of the DCC under PA led to the largest differences in survival between the two scenarios. Additionally, we noted no difference in median survival decreases between the PA and L1 scenarios, although in some years the L1 scenario had a lower survival decrease than the PA scenario. For the third analysis, we proposed a quantitative approach for developing NDD rule curves (that is, prescribed diversion flows for given inflows) by using the survival model to identify diversion rates that meet a criterion of a having a small probability of exceeding a given decrease in survival. We examined diversion rates that led to a 10% chance of exceeding a given decrease in survival for a range of absolute and relative decreases in survival. To maintain a given constant level of protection across the range of river flows, our analysis indicated that diversions had to increase at a much slower rate with respect to Sacramento River flow relative to the rule curves defined in the NDD bypass table. Additionally, we determined that diversion rates could be higher than under the bypass table rule curves at river flows less than 20,000 ft3 /s, but diversions had to be less than defined by NDD bypass rules at higher flows. For the fourth analysis, we simulated the effect of “real-time operations” on salmon survival, where bypass flow rates were determined by the presence of juvenile salmon entering the Delta, as indicated by juvenile salmon catch in a rotary screw trap upstream of the Delta. For this analysis, we evaluated NDD operations as defined by the L1 scenario and an additional scenario (Unlimited Pulse Protection [UPP]) that provided protection to an unlimited number of fish pulses. This analysis indicated that the highest catches occurred during flow pulses when daily survival was high, which caused annual survival to be weighted towards periods of high daily survival, resulting in a high annual survival. We determined that the mean annual survival decreased by 1–4 percentage points, and annual survival decreases were more frequently smaller for the UPP scenario. Additionally, because the UPP scenario protected an unlimited number of fish pulses, decreases in daily survival under the UPP scenario were less than under the L1 scenario.

California↗

USGS2018

Model structure of the stream salmonid simulator (S3)—A dynamic model for simulating growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmonids

Fisheries and water managers often use population models to aid in understanding the effect of alternative water management or restoration actions on anadromous fish populations. We developed the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to help resource managers evaluate the effect of management alternatives on juvenile salmonid populations. S3 is a deterministic stage-structured population model that tracks daily growth, movement, and survival of juvenile salmon. A key theme of the model is that river flow affects habitat availability and capacity, which in turn drives density dependent population dynamics. To explicitly link population dynamics to habitat quality and quantity, the river environment is constructed as a one-dimensional series of linked habitat units, each of which has an associated daily time series of discharge, water temperature, and usable habitat area or carrying capacity. The physical characteristics of each habitat unit and the number of fish occupying each unit, in turn, drive survival and growth within each habitat unit and movement of fish among habitat units. The purpose of this report is to outline the underlying general structure of the S3 model that is common among different applications of the model. We have developed applications of the S3 model for juvenile fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) in the lower Klamath River. Thus, this report is a companion to current application of the S3 model to the Trinity River (in review). The general S3 model structure provides a biological and physical framework for the salmonid freshwater life cycle. This framework captures important demographics of juvenile salmonids aimed at translating management alternatives into simulated population responses. Although the S3 model is built on this common framework, the model has been constructed to allow much flexibility in application of the model to specific river systems. The ability for practitioners to include system-specific information for the physical stream structure, survival, growth, and movement processes ensures that simulations provide results that are relevant to the questions asked about the population under study.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2018

Effects of the proposed California WaterFix North Delta Diversion on flow reversals and entrainment of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) into Georgiana Slough and the Delta Cross Channel, northern California

The California Department of Water Resources and Bureau of Reclamation propose new water intake facilities on the Sacramento River in northern California that would convey some of the water for export to areas south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta (hereinafter referred to as the Delta) through tunnels rather than through the Delta. The collection of water intakes, tunnels, pumping facilities, associated structures, and proposed operations are collectively referred to as California WaterFix. The water intake facilities, hereinafter referred to as the North Delta Diversion (NDD), are proposed to be located on the Sacramento River downstream of the city of Sacramento and upstream of the first major river junction where Sutter Slough branches from the Sacramento River. The NDD can divert a maximum discharge of 9,000 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) from the Sacramento River, which reduces the amount of Sacramento River inflow into the Delta. In this report, we conducted three analyses to investigate the effect of the NDD and its proposed operation on entrainment of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) into Georgiana Slough and the Delta Cross Channel (DCC). Fish that enter the interior Delta (the network of channels to the south of the Sacramento River) through Georgiana Slough and the DCC survive at lower rates than fish that use other migration routes (Sacramento River, Sutter Slough, and Steamboat Slough). Therefore, fisheries managers were concerned about the extent to which operation of the NDD would increase the proportion of the population entering the interior Delta, which, all else being equal, would lower overall survival through the Delta by increasing the fraction of the population subject to lower survival rates. Operation of the NDD would reduce flow in the Sacramento River, which has the potential to increase the magnitude and duration of reverse flows of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough. In the first analysis, we evaluate the effect of the NDD bypass rules on flow reversals of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough. The NDD bypass rules are a set of operational criteria designed to minimize upstream transport of fish into Georgiana Slough and the DCC, and were developed based on previous studies showing that the magnitude and duration of flow reversals increase the proportion of fish entering Georgiana Slough and the DCC. We estimated the frequency and duration of reverse-flow conditions of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough under each of the prescribed minimum bypass flows described in the NDD bypass rules. To accommodate adaptive levels of protection during different times of year when juvenile salmon are migrating through the Delta, the NDD bypass rules prescribe a series of minimum allowable bypass flows that vary depending on (1) month of the year, and (2) progressively decreasing levels of protection following a pulse flow event. We determined that the NDD bypass rules increased the frequency and duration of reverse flows of the Sacramento River downstream of Georgiana Slough, with the magnitude of increase varying among scenarios. Constant low-level pumping, the most protective bypass rule that limits diversion to 10 percent of the maximum diversion and is implemented following a pulse-flow event, led to the smallest increase in frequency and duration of flow reversals. In contrast, we found that some scenarios led to sizeable increases in the fraction of the day with reverse flow. The conditions under which the proportion of the day with reverse flow can increase by greater than or equal to 10 percentage points between October and June, when juvenile salmon are present in the Delta, include October–November bypass rules and level-3 post-pulse operations during December–June. These conditions would be expected to increase the proportion of juvenile salmon entering the interior Delta through Georgiana Slough. In the second analysis, we assessed bias in Delta Simulation Model 2 (DSM2) flow predictions at the junction of the Sacramento River, DCC, and Georgiana Slough. Because DSM2 was being used to simulate California WaterFix operations, understanding the extent of bias relative to USGS streamgages was important since fish routing models were based on flow data at streamgages. We determined that river flow predicted by DSM2 was biased for Georgiana Slough and the Sacramento River. Therefore, for subsequent analysis, we bias-corrected the DSM2 flow predictions using measured stream flows as predictor variables. In the third analysis, we evaluated the effect of the NDD on the daily probability of fish entering Georgiana Slough and the DCC. We applied an existing model to predict entrainment from 15-minute flow simulations for an 82-year time series of flows simulated by DSM2 under the Proposed Action (PA), where the North Delta Diversion is implemented under California WaterFix, and the No Action Alternative (NAA), where the diversion is not implemented. To estimate the daily fraction of fish entering each river channel, entrainment probabilities were averaged over each day. To evaluate the two scenarios, we then compared mean annual entrainment probabilities by month, water year classification, and three different assumed run timings. Overall, the probability of remaining in the Sacramento River was lower under the PA scenario, but the magnitude of the difference was small ( 3 /s. At flows greater than 41,000 ft 3 /s, we hypothesize that entrainment into the interior Delta is relatively constant, which would have caused little difference between scenarios at higher flows.

California↗

USGS2018

A laboratory-calibrated model of coho salmon growth with utility for ecological analyses

We conducted a meta-analysis of laboratory- and hatchery-based growth data to estimate broadly applicable parameters of mass- and temperature-dependent growth of juvenile coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ). Following studies of other salmonid species, we incorporated the Ratkowsky growth model into an allometric model and fit this model to growth observations from eight studies spanning ten different populations. To account for changes in growth patterns with food availability, we reparameterized the Ratkowsky model to scale several of its parameters relative to ration. The resulting model was robust across a wide range of ration allocations and experimental conditions, accounting for 99% of the variation in final body mass. We fit this model to growth data from coho salmon inhabiting tributaries and constructed ponds in the Klamath Basin by estimating habitat-specific indices of food availability. The model produced evidence that constructed ponds provided higher food availability than natural tributaries. Because of their simplicity (only mass and temperature are required as inputs) and robustness, ration-varying Ratkowsky models have utility as an ecological tool for capturing growth in freshwater fish populations.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2018

N-mix for fish: estimating riverine salmonid habitat selection via N-mixture models

Models that formulate mathematical linkages between fish use and habitat characteristics are applied for many purposes. For riverine fish, these linkages are often cast as resource selection functions with variables including depth and velocity of water and distance to nearest cover. Ecologists are now recognizing the role that detection plays in observing organisms, and failure to account for imperfect detection can lead to spurious inference. Herein, we present a flexible N-mixture model to associate habitat characteristics with the abundance of riverine salmonids that simultaneously estimates detection probability. Our formulation has the added benefits of accounting for demographics variation and can generate probabilistic statements regarding intensity of habitat use. In addition to the conceptual benefits, model application to data from the Trinity River, California, yields interesting results. Detection was estimated to vary among surveyors, but there was little spatial or temporal variation. Additionally, a weaker effect of water depth on resource selection is estimated than that reported by previous studies not accounting for detection probability. N-mixture models show great promise for applications to riverine resource selection.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2018

Flow-mediated effects on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile Chinook salmon in a spatially complex, tidally forced river delta

We evaluated the interacting influences of river flows and tides on travel time, routing, and survival of juvenile late-fall Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) migrating through the Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta. To quantify these effects, we jointly modeled the travel time, survival, and migration routing in relation to individual time-varying covariates of acoustic-tagged salmon within a Bayesian framework. We used observed arrival times for detected individuals and imputed arrival times for undetected individuals to assign covariate values in each reach. We found travel time was inversely related to river inflow in all reaches, yet survival was positively related to inflow only in reaches that transitioned from bidirectional tidal flows to unidirectional flow with increasing inflows. We also found that the probability of fish entering the interior Delta, a low-survival reach, declined as inflow increased. Our study illustrates how river inflows interact with tides to influence fish survival during the critical transition between freshwater and ocean environments. Furthermore, our analytical framework introduces new techniques to integrate formally over missing covariate values to quantify effects of time-varying covariates.

California↗

USGS2018

Estimating freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns of Klamath River Coho Salmon

An area of great importance to resource management and conservation biology in the Klamath Basin is balancing water usage against the life history requirements of threatened Coho Salmon. One tool for addressing this topic is a freshwater dynamics model to forecast Coho Salmon productivity based on environmental inputs. Constructing such a forecasting tool requires local data to quantify the unique life history processes of Coho Salmon inhabiting this region. Here, we describe analytical methods for estimating a series of sub-models, each capturing a different life history process, which will eventually be synchronized as part of a freshwater dynamics model for Klamath River Coho Salmon. Specifically, we draw upon extensive population monitoring data collected in the basin to estimate models of freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns. Our models of freshwater productivity indicated that high summer temperatures and high winter flows can both adversely affect smolt production and that such relationships are more likely in tributaries with naturally regulated flows due to substantial intraannual environmental variation. Our models of overwinter survival demonstrated extensive variability in survival among years, but not among rearing locations, and demonstrated that a substantial proportion (~ 20%) of age-0+ fish emigrate from some rearing sites in the winter. Our models of migration patterns indicated that many age-0+ fish redistribute in the basin during the summer and winter. Further, we observed that these redistributions can entail long migrations in the mainstem where environmental stressors likely play a role in cueing refuge entry. Finally, our models of migration patterns indicated that changes in discharge are important in cueing the seaward migration of smolts, but that the nature of this behavioral response can differ dramatically between tributaries with naturally and artificially regulated flows. Collectively, these analyses demonstrate that environmental variation interacts with most phases of the freshwater life history of Klamath River Coho Salmon and that anthropogenic environmental variation can have a particularly large bearing on productivity.

Arcata Fisheries Technical Report↗

USGS2018

Estimation of stream conditions in tributaries of the Klamath River, northern California

Because of their critical ecological role, stream temperature and discharge are requisite inputs for models of salmonid population dynamics. Coho Salmon inhabiting the Klamath Basin spend much of their freshwater life cycle inhabiting tributaries, but environmental data are often absent or only seasonally available at these locations. To address this information gap, we constructed daily averaged water temperature models that used simulated meteorological data to estimate daily tributary temperatures, and we used flow differentials recorded on the mainstem Klamath River to estimate daily tributary discharge. Observed temperature data were available for fourteen of the major salmon bearing tributaries, which enabled estimation of tributary-specific model parameters at those locations. Water temperature data from six mid-Klamath Basin tributaries were used to estimate a global set of parameters for predicting water temperatures in the remaining tributaries. The resulting parameter sets were used to simulate water temperatures for each of 75 tributaries from 1980-2015. Goodness-of-fit statistics computed from a cross-validation analysis demonstrated a high precision of the tributary-specific models in predicting temperature in unobserved years and of the global model in predicting temperatures in unobserved streams. Klamath River discharge has been monitored by four gages that broadly intersperse the 292 kilometers from the Iron Gate Dam to the Klamath River mouth. These gages defined the upstream and downstream margins of three reaches. Daily discharge of tributaries within a reach was estimated from 1980-2015 based on drainage-area proportionate allocations of the discharge differential between the upstream and downstream margin. Comparisons with measured discharge on Indian Creek, a moderate-sized tributary with naturally regulated flows, revealed that the estimates effectively approximated both the variability and magnitude of discharge.

California↗

USGS2018

Research, monitoring, and evaluation of emerging issues and measures to recover the Snake River fall Chinook salmon ESU

The portion of the Snake River fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ESU that spawns upstream of Lower Granite Dam transitioned from low to high abundance during 1992–2017 in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act recovery efforts and other federally mandated actions. This annual report focuses on (1) numeric and habitat use responses by natural- and hatchery-origin spawners, (2) phenotypic and numeric responses by natural-origin juveniles, (3) USGS use of a small unmanned aerial system (sUAS) to search for fall Chinook salmon redds and carcasses, and (4) the detection of 8-mm PIT tags at Lower Granite Dam. Spawners have located and used most of the available spawning habitat and that habitat is gradually approaching redd capacity. Timing of spawning and fry emergence has been relatively stable; whereas the timing of parr dispersal from riverine rearing habitat into Lower Granite Reservoir has become earlier as apparent abundance of juveniles has increased. Growth rate (g/d) and dispersal size of parr also declined as apparent abundance of juveniles increased. Passage timing of smolts from the two Snake River reaches has become earlier and downstream movement rate faster as estimated abundance of fall Chinook Salmon smolts in Lower Granite Reservoir has increased. These findings coupled with stock-recruitment analyses presented in this report provide evidence for density-dependence in the Snake River reaches and in Lower Granite Reservoir that was influenced by the expansion of the recovery program. The long-term goal is to use the information covered here in a comprehensive modeling effort to conduct action effectiveness and uncertainty research and to inform Fish Population, Hydrosystem, Harvest, Hatchery, and Predation and Invasive Species Management RM&E. In 2017, the USGS searched 15 shallow water spawning sites in conjunction with the Idaho Power Company (IPC). Redd counts agreed with those of IPC for a little more than half the sites suggesting that we need more training in redd counting. We recovered 67 carcasses, and tissue samples are currently being analyzed for parentage to ultimately determine the percentage of hatchery-origin spawners on the spawning grounds. Redd fading was examined to determine the frequency at which aerial surveys should be conducted. Most redds surveyed through time were visible for at least 4 weeks after the redd was initially constructed. Redd fading was variable amongst sites and depended on location. In 2017, we conducted a second year of evaluating detection efficiency of 8-mm PIT tags in the Lower Granite Dam juvenile fish collection system. Groups of 75–78 fish were tagged with 8-mm Biomark, 8-mm Oregon RFID, 9-mm Biomark, and 12-mm Biomark PIT tags and released into the bypass upstream of the upwell. From 97.4 to 100% (depending on tag type) of tagged fish were detected on at least one antenna in the Lower Granite Dam bypass system. Mean detection efficiency within the predominant passage route (i.e., diversion river exit) exceeded 0.98 for all tag types in both years. These results suggest that fish tagged in the field with 8-mm PIT tags should be detected at rates similar to larger tags at main-stem hydroelectric dams.

Snake River Basin↗