Rodney Siegel | Search USGS

USGS2024

Annual migratory movement, apparent molt-migration, migration schedule, and diffuse migratory connectivity of Hermit Warblers

Quantifying migratory connectivity and annual movement is key to sound conservation planning for migratory species. Hermit Warblers ( Setophaga occidentalis ) are an endemic-breeding species in the Pacific Northwest that winters in Mexico and the Central Americas. This species faces threats from mature forest loss and climate change throughout its range, but we know little about its migration ecology. To understand the annual movements and migratory connectivity of Hermit Warblers, we tracked 22 adult male Hermit Warblers from six breeding sites across the species’ breeding range using geolocators to examine migratory connectivity, spatiotemporal patterns, and migration routes. We found a high degree of mixing on the wintering grounds among birds from different breeding locations, indicating low migratory connectivity. However, birds breeding in Yosemite, the southernmost breeding location in our study, wintered farther east and south than birds from more northern breeding locations, providing weak evidence for potential chain migration. All birds showed much shorter and faster movements during spring migration than during fall migration. Birds arrived at breeding grounds from late April to mid-May and left breeding ranges from late June to mid-July. In fall, birds moved slowly from the breeding locations to montane regions in southern Oregon and California, which may indicate post-breeding molt before swiftly migrating to wintering grounds. Low migratory connectivity in this species implies that habitat and climate change across the broad wintering range may affect breeding populations throughout the species’ breeding range. A particularly compressed breeding schedule and departure of birds from the breeding grounds in early July may indicate that breeding is limited by a short window of favorable climatic conditions for breeding, which could signal heightened vulnerability under future climatic scenarios.

Avian Conservation and Ecology↗

USGS2017

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

Monitoring species in National Parks facilitates inference regarding effects of climate change on population dynamics because parks are relatively unaffected by other forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Even at early points in a monitoring program, identifying climate covariates of population density can suggest vulnerabilities to future change. Monitoring landbird populations in parks during the breeding season brings the added benefit of allowing a comparative approach to inference across a large suite of species with diverse requirements. For example, comparing resident and migratory species that vary in exposure to non-park habitats can reveal the relative importance of park effects, such as those related to local climate. We monitored landbirds using breeding-season point-count data collected during 2005–2014 in three wilderness areas of the Pacific Northwest (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks). For 39 species, we estimated recent trends in population density while accounting for individual detection probability using Bayesian hierarchical N -mixture models. Our analyses integrated several recent developments in N -mixture modeling, incorporating interval and distance sampling to estimate distinct components of detection probability while also accommodating count intervals of varying duration, annual variation in the length and number of point-count transects, spatial autocorrelation, random effects, and covariates of detection and density. As covariates of density, we considered metrics of precipitation and temperature hypothesized to affect breeding success. We also considered effects of park and elevational stratum on trend. Regardless of model structure, we estimated stable or increasing densities during 2005–2014 for most populations. Mean trends across species were positive for migrants in every park and for residents in one park. A recent snowfall deficit in this region might have contributed to the positive trend, because population density varied inversely with precipitation-as-snow for both migrants and residents. Densities varied directly but much more weakly with mean spring temperature. Our approach exemplifies an analytical framework for estimating trends from point-count data, and for assessing the role of climatic and other spatiotemporal variables in driving those trends. Understanding population trends and the factors that drive them is critical for adaptive management and resource stewardship in the context of climate change.

Ecosphere↗