Geology topics

Robin S. Waples

Publications and source records attributed to Robin S. Waples.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2020

Detecting population declines via monitoring the effective number of breeders (Nb)

Estimating the effective population size and effective number of breeders per year ( N b ) can facilitate early detection of population declines. We used computer simulations to quantify bias and precision of the one-sample LDNe estimator of N b in age-structured populations using a range of published species life history types, sample sizes, and DNA markers. N b estimates were biased by ~5%–10% when using SNPs or microsatellites in species ranging from fishes to mosquitoes, frogs, and seaweed. The bias (high or low) was similar for different life history types within a species suggesting that life history variation in populations will not influence N b estimation. Precision was higher for 100 SNPs ( H ≈ 0.30) than for 15 microsatellites ( H ≈ 0.70). Confidence intervals (CIs) were occasionally too narrow, and biased high when N b was small ( N b < 50); however, the magnitude of bias would unlikely influence management decisions. The CIs (from LDNe ) were sufficiently narrow to achieve high statistical power (≥0.80) to reject the null hypothesis that N b = 50 when the true N b = 30 and when sampling 50 individuals and 200 SNPs. Similarly, CIs were sufficiently narrow to reject N b = 500 when the true N b = 400 and when sampling 200 individuals and 5,000 loci. Finally, we present a linear regression method that provides high power to detect a decline in N b when sampling at least five consecutive cohorts. This study provides guidelines and tools to simulate and estimate N b for age structured populations ( https://github.com/popgengui/agestrucnb/ ), which should help biologists develop sensitive monitoring programmes for early detection of changes in N b and population declines.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2018

Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity

Biodiversity —the variety of life on Earth—provides vital services that support and improve human health and well-being. Ecosystems, which are composed of living things that interact with the physical environment, provide numerous essential benefits to people. These benefits, termed ecosystem services, encompass four primary functions: provisioning materials, such as food and fiber; regulating critical parts of the environment, such as water quality and erosion control; providing cultural services, such as recreational opportunities and aesthetic value; and providing supporting services, such as nutrient cycling. Climate change poses many threats and potential disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity, as well as to the ecosystem services on which people depend. Building on the findings of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), this chapter provides additional evidence that climate change is significantly impacting ecosystems and biodiversity in the United States. Mounting evidence also demonstrates that climate change is increasingly compromising the ecosystem services that sustain human communities, economies, and well-being. Both human and natural systems respond to change, but their ability to respond and thrive under new conditions is determined by their adaptive capacity, which may be inadequate to keep pace with rapid change. Our understanding of climate change impacts and the responses of biodiversity and ecosystems has improved since NCA3. The expected consequences of climate change will vary by region, species, and ecosystem type. Management responses are evolving as new tools and approaches are developed and implemented; however, they may not be able to overcome the negative impacts of climate change. Although efforts have been made since NCA3 to incorporate climate adaptation strategies into natural resource management, significant work remains to comprehensively implement climate-informed planning. This chapter presents additional evidence for climate change impacts to biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services, reflecting increased confidence in the findings reported in NCA3. The chapter also illustrates the complex and interrelated nature of climate change impacts to biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they provide.

Report↗

USGS2016

Assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change: From pseudo to science

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are important tools to plan for and mitigate potential impacts of climate change. However, CCVAs often lack scientific rigor, which can ultimately lead to poor conservation prioritization and associated ecological and economic costs. We discuss the need to improve comparability and consistency of CCVAs and either validate their findings or improve assessment of CCVA uncertainty and sensitivity to methodological assumptions.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2014

Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual‐based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss of genetic diversity and reduced numbers in certain vulnerable populations. This demogenetic simulation framework, which is illustrated in a web‐based interactive mapping prototype, should be useful for evaluating population vulnerability in a wide variety of dendritic and fragmented riverscapes, helping to guide conservation and management efforts for freshwater species.

Montana↗