Geology topics

Robert Weiss

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Weiss.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Advances in morphodynamic modeling of coastal barriers: A review

As scientific understanding of barrier morphodynamics has improved, so has the ability to reproduce observed phenomena and predict future barrier states using mathematical models. To use existing models effectively and improve them, it is important to understand the current state of morphodynamic modeling and the progress that has been made in the field. This manuscript offers a review of the literature regarding advancements in morphodynamic modeling of coastal barrier systems and summarizes current modeling abilities and limitations. Broadly, this review covers both event-scale and long-term morphodynamics. Each of these sections begins with an overview of commonly modeled phenomena and processes, followed by a review of modeling developments. After summarizing the advancements toward the stated modeling goals, we identify research gaps and suggestions for future research under the broad categories of improving our abilities to acquire and access data, furthering our scientific understanding of relevant processes, and advancing our modeling frameworks and approaches.

Virginia↗

USGS2021

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~M w 9.1 (required today) to M w 8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

Alaska, California↗

USGS2018

The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.

Alaska↗

USGS2011

Insights on the 2009 South Pacific tsunami in Samoa and Tonga from field surveys and numerical simulations

An M w ≈ 8.1 earthquake south of the Samoan Islands on 29 September 2009 generated a tsunami that killed 189 people. From 4 to 11 October, an International Tsunami Survey Team surveyed the seven major islands of the Samoan archipelago. The team measured locally focused runup heights of 17 m at Poloa and inundation of more than 500 m at Pago Pago. A follow-up expedition from 23 to 28 November surveying the three main islands of Tonga's northernmost Niua group revealed surprising 22 m runup and 1 km inundation. We analyze the extreme tsunami runup and complex impact distribution based on physical and societal observations combined with numerical modeling. That an outer rise/outer trench slope (OR/OTS) event is responsible for a tsunami disaster in the Pacific calls for care in identifying and defining tsunami hazards. Evacuation exercises conducted in Samoa in the preceding year may have limited the human toll; however, cars were identified as potential death traps during tsunami evacuations. This event highlights the extreme hazards from near source tsunamis when the earthquake's shaking constitutes the de facto warning, and further underscores the importance of community based education and awareness programs as essential in saving lives.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2010

Field survey of the Samoa tsunami of 29 September 2009

On 29 September 2009, a strong earthquake took place south of the Samoa Islands in the southcentral Pacific. It triggered a local tsunami, which caused considerable damage and 189 fatalities on the Samoa Islands and in the northern Tonga archipelago. We present here the results of a tsunami survey conducted by an International Tsunami Survey Team in the Samoa Islands on 4-10 October 2009 and in northern Tonga on 25–27 November 2009.

Manono, Manu'a Islands, Motu O Manu, Niuafo'ou, Ni↗