Geology topics

Robert J. Fletcher

Publications and source records attributed to Robert J. Fletcher.

16 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

The influence of human presence and footprint on animal space use in US national parks

Given the importance of protected areas for biodiversity, the growth of visitation to many areas has raised concerns about the effects of humans on wildlife. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to temporary closure of national parks in the United States, offering a pseudonatural experiment to tease apart the effects of permanent infrastructure and transient human presence on animals. We compiled GPS tracking data from 229 individuals of 10 mammal species in 14 parks and used third-order hierarchical resource selection functions to evaluate the influence of the human footprint on animal space use in 2019 and 2020. Averaged across all parks and species, animals avoided the human footprint, whether the park was open or closed. However, although animals in remote areas showed consistent avoidance, on average those in more developed areas switched from avoidance to selection when protected areas were closed. Findings varied across species: some responded consistently negatively to the footprint (wolves, mountain goats), some positively (mule deer, red fox) and others had a strong exposure-mediated response (elk, mountain lion). Furthermore, some species responded more strongly to the park closure (black bear, moose). This study advances our understanding of complex interactions between recreation and wildlife in protected areas.

western United States↗

USGS2023

Toward conciliation in the habitat fragmentation and biodiversity debate

Landscape-scale conservation planning is urgent given the extent of anthropogenic land-use change and its pervasive impacts on Earth’s biodiversity. However, such efforts are hindered by disagreements over the effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity that have persisted since the mid-1970s. We contend that nearly 50 years later, these disagreements have become a locked-in debate characterized by polarized, unproductive discourse and a lack of consistent guidance for landscape managers and policy makers. Here, we highlight the need for a unified set of principles regarding conservation in fragmented landscapes, identify potential reasons for disparate conclusions in fragmentation research, and suggest ways for the ecological community to advance research that leads to consensus rather than the perpetuation of disagreement. Explicit efforts to develop and test multiple competing hypotheses, inter-laboratory collaborations, and acknowledgement of multiple interacting effects will be vital for moving the fragmentation debate forward. We argue that we in the ecology community should be responsible for helping to reconcile different views across scales, systems, and methodological approaches to advance conservation planning within a landscape ecology framework.

Landscape Ecology↗

USGS2023

Nest-site selection model for endangered Everglade snail kites to inform ecosystem restoration

dictors of nesting for snail kites in south Florida. The results of our modeling indicate that hydrology, percent canopy cover, and proximity to recently burned areas were the most important factors associated with nest-site selection for snail kites. Water depths between 75 and 100 cm, water recession rates between 0 and 1.25 cm/day, percent canopy covers <20%, and areas <10 km from recently burned habitat were associated with the greatest likelihood of nest-site selection. KiteNest is applicable to natural resource management decisions in the Everglades and may be useful independently or in conjunction with other ecological models for restoration decision support.

Florida↗

USGS2023

Quality of thermal refuges influences use by the cold-intolerant Florida manatee

ABSTRACT: Thermal refuges are habitats used by species for behavioral thermoregulation. These habitats can be highly dynamic and are often influenced by fluctuations in local climate. When protected species require thermal refuges, it is necessary to identify stable and high-quality areas by evaluating species use in response to variation in thermal refuge quality. Here, we assessed behavioral thermoregulation in the Florida manatee Trichechus manatus latirostris , a cold-intolerant marine mammal. Using metrics from ectotherm physiology, we evaluated thermal quality of 2 refuge types (passive thermal basins, natural springs) in 2 areas of their distribution. Thermal refuge quality was assessed with respect to the lower critical threshold of the manatee (20°C) and the surrounding ambient temperatures and compared between refuge types. We used GPS locations of manatees to quantify visits to refuges and calculated total visit duration in each refuge by individual manatees. At natural springs, we found a negative correlation between visit duration and ambient temperature during cold weather; visit duration also increased with the temperature differential between the spring and the lower critical thermal threshold. Visit duration at passive thermal basins was negatively correlated with the thermal differential between the refuge and the lower critical thermal threshold. The relationship between thermal refuge quality and time-use metrics sheds light on the potential implications of habitat degradation on animal energetics and behavior. Given these results, focusing on potential key refuges in each system may inform targeted management and habitat restoration efforts to maintain adequate thermal refuge environments for this listed species.

Florida↗

USGS2022

An invasive prey provides long-lasting silver spoon effects for an endangered predator

The natal environment can have long-term fitness consequences for individuals, particularly via ‘silver spoon’ or ‘environmental matching’ effects. Invasive species could alter natal effects on native species by changing species interactions, but this potential remains unknown. Using 17 years of data on 2588 individuals across the entire US breeding range of the endangered snail kite ( Rostrhamus sociabilis ), a wetland raptor that feeds entirely on Pomacea snails, we tested for silver spoon and environmental matching effects on survival and movement and whether the invasion of a non-native snail may alter outcomes. We found support for silver spoon effects, not environmental matching, on survival that operated through body condition at fledging, explained by hydrology in the natal wetland. When non-native snails were present at the natal site, kites were in better condition, individual condition was less sensitive to hydrology, and kites fledged across a wider range of hydrologic conditions, leading to higher survival that persisted for at least 10 years. Movement between wetlands was driven by the current (adult) environment, and birds born in both invaded and uninvaded wetlands preferred to occupy invaded wetlands post-fledging. These results illustrate that species invasions may profoundly impact the role of natal environments on native species.

Florida↗

USGS2019

Traveling to thermal refuges during stressful temperatures leads to foraging constraints in a central-place forager

Central-place foragers can be constrained by the distance between habitats. When an organism relies on a central place for thermal refuge, the distance to food resources can potentially constrain foraging behavior. We investigated the effect of distance between thermal refuges and forage patches of the cold-intolerant marine mammal, the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), on foraging duration. We tested the alternative hypotheses of time minimization and energy maximization as a response to distance between habitats. We also determined if manatees mitigate foraging constraints with increased visits to closer thermal refuges. We used hidden Markov models to assign discrete behaviors from movement parameters as a function of water temperature and assessed the influence of distance on foraging duration in water temperatures above (> 20°C) and below (≤ 20°C) the lower critical limit of the thermoneutral zone of manatees. We found that with increased distance, manatees decreased foraging duration in cold water temperature and increased foraging duration in warmer temperatures. We also found that manatees returned to closer thermal refuges more often. Our results suggest that the spatial relationship of thermal and forage habitats can impact behavioral decisions regarding foraging. Addressing foraging behavior questions while considering thermoregulatory behavior implicates the importance of understanding changing environments on animal behavior, particularly in the face of current global change.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

USGS2017

Landscape complementation revealed through bipartite networks: An example with the Florida manatee

Context Landscape complementation, or how landscapes that contain two or more non-substitutable and spatially separated resources facilitate resource use, is critical for many populations. Implicit to the problem of landscape complementation is the movement of individuals to access multiple resources. Conventional measures of complementation, such as habitat area or distance between habitats, do not consider the spatial configuration of resources or how landscape features impede movement. Objectives We advanced a bipartite network approach to capture the spatial configuration and connectivity of two habitat types and contrasted this framework to conventional approaches in a habitat selection model. Methods Using satellite-telemetry of the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), a marine mammal that relies on two distinct, spatially separate habitats for foraging and thermoregulating, we parameterized and compared mixed conditional logistic models with covariates describing classic habitat selection metrics, conventional measures of landscape complementation, and bipartite network metrics. Results The models best supported included habitat area, resistance distance between habitats, and the bipartite network metric eigenvector centrality. The connectivity between habitats and the spatial configuration of one habitat type relative to other types better described habitat selection than conventional measures of landscape complementation alone. The type of habitat, i.e. seagrass or thermal refuge, influenced both the direction and magnitude of the response. Conclusions Landscape complementation is an important predictor of selection and thus classic complementation measures are not sufficient in describing the process. Formalization of complementation with bipartite network can therefor reveal effects potentially missed with conventional measures.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Spatio-temporal variation in age structure and abundance of the endangered snail kite: Pooling across regions masks a declining and aging population

While variation in age structure over time and space has long been considered important for population dynamics and conservation, reliable estimates of such spatio-temporal variation in age structure have been elusive for wild vertebrate populations. This limitation has arisen because of problems of imperfect detection, the potential for temporary emigration impacting assessments of age structure, and limited information on age. However, identifying patterns in age structure is important for making reliable predictions of both short- and long-term dynamics of populations of conservation concern. Using a multistate superpopulation estimator, we estimated region-specific abundance and age structure (the proportion of individuals within each age class) of a highly endangered population of snail kites for two separate regions in Florida over 17 years (1997–2013). We find that in the southern region of the snail kite—a region known to be critical for the long-term persistence of the species—the population has declined significantly since 1997, and during this time, it has increasingly become dominated by older snail kites (> 12 years old). In contrast, in the northern region—a region historically thought to serve primarily as drought refugia—the population has increased significantly since 2007 and age structure is more evenly distributed among age classes. Given that snail kites show senescence at approximately 13 years of age, where individuals suffer higher mortality rates and lower breeding rates, these results reveal an alarming trend for the southern region. Our work illustrates the importance of accounting for spatial structure when assessing changes in abundance and age distribution and the need for monitoring of age structure in imperiled species.

Florida↗

USGS2016

Invasive pythons, not anthropogenic stressors, explain the distribution of a keystone species

Untangling the causes of native species loss in human-modified systems is difficult and often controversial. Evaluating the impact of non-native species in these systems is particularly challenging, as additional human perturbations often precede or accompany introductions. One example is the ongoing debate over whether mammal declines within Everglades National Park (ENP) were caused by either the establishment of non-native Burmese pythons ( Python molurus bivittatus ) or the effects of other anthropogenic stressors. We examined the influence of both pythons and a host of alternative stressors—altered hydrology and habitat characteristics, mercury contamination and development—on the distribution of the marsh rabbit ( Sylvilagus palustris ), a once common mammal in ENP. Distance from the epicenter of the python invasion best explained marsh rabbit occurrence in suitable habitat patches, whereas none of the alternative stressors considered could explain marsh rabbit distribution. Estimates of the probability of marsh rabbit occurrence ranged from 0 at the python invasion epicenter to nearly 1.0 150 km from the invasion epicenter. These results support the hypothesis that invasive pythons shape the distribution of marsh rabbits in southern Florida. The loss of marsh rabbits and similar species will likely alter trophic interactions and ecosystem function within the Everglades, an internationally important hotspot of biodiversity. Further, our results suggest that non-native species can have profound impacts on mainland biodiversity.

Florida↗

USGS2014

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2013

Network modularity reveals critical scales for connectivity in ecology and evolution

For nearly a century, biologists have emphasized the profound importance of spatial scale for ecology, evolution and conservation. Nonetheless, objectively identifying critical scales has proven incredibly challenging. Here we extend new techniques from physics and social sciences that estimate modularity on networks to identify critical scales for movement and gene flow in animals. Using four species that vary widely in dispersal ability and include both mark-recapture and population genetic data, we identify significant modularity in three species, two of which cannot be explained by geographic distance alone. Importantly, the inclusion of modularity in connectivity and population viability assessments alters conclusions regarding patch importance to connectivity and suggests higher metapopulation viability than when ignoring this hidden spatial scale. We argue that network modularity reveals critical meso-scales that are probably common in populations, providing a powerful means of identifying fundamental scales for biology and for conservation strategies aimed at recovering imperilled species.

Nature Communications↗

USGS2013

Too risky to settle: avian community structure changes in response to perceived predation risk on adults and offspring

Predation risk is widely hypothesized as an important force structuring communities, but this potential force is rarely tested experimentally, particularly in terrestrial vertebrate communities. How animals respond to predation risk is generally considered predictable from species life-history and natural-history traits, but rigorous tests of these predictions remain scarce. We report on a large-scale playback experiment with a forest bird community that addresses two questions: (i) does perceived predation risk shape the richness and composition of a breeding bird community? And (ii) can species life-history and natural-history traits predict prey community responses to different types of predation risk? On 9 ha plots, we manipulated cues of three avian predators that preferentially prey on either adult birds or offspring, or both, throughout the breeding season. We found that increased perception of predation risk led to generally negative responses in the abundance, occurrence and/or detection probability of most prey species, which in turn reduced the species richness and shifted the composition of the breeding bird community. Species-level responses were largely predicted from the key natural-history trait of body size, but we did not find support for the life-history theory prediction of the relationship between species' slow/fast life-history strategy and their response to predation risk.

Florida↗

USGS2012

Are Agrofuels a conservation threat or opportunity for grassland birds in the United States?

In the United States, government-mandated growth in the production of crops dedicated to biofuel (agrofuels) is predicted to increase the demands on existing agricultural lands, potentially threatening the persistence of populations of grassland birds they support. We review recently published literature and datasets to (1) examine the ability of alternative agrofuel crops and their management regimes to provide habitat for grassland birds, (2) determine how crop placement in agricultural landscapes and agrofuel-related land-use change will affect grassland birds, and (3) identify critical research and policy-development needs associated with agrofuel production. We find that native perennial plants proposed as feedstock for agrofuel (switchgrass, Panicum virgatum, and mixed grass—forb prairie) have considerable potential to provide new habitat to a wide range of grassland birds, including rare and threatened species. However, industrialization of agrofuel production that maximizes biomass, homogenizes vegetation structure, and results in the cultivation of small fields within largely forested landscapes is likely to reduce species richness and/or abundance of grassland-dependent birds. Realizing the potential benefits of agrofuel production for grassland birds' conservation will require the development of new policies that encourage agricultural practices specifically targeting the needs of grassland specialists. The broad array of grower-incentive programs in existence may deliver new agrofuel policies effectively but will require coordination at a spatial scale broader than currently practiced, preferably within an adaptive-management framework.

The Condor↗

USGS2012

Extreme weather and experience influence reproduction in an endangered bird

Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heat waves, are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the coming years, and understanding their impacts on demographic rates is of increasing interest to both evolutionary ecologists and conservation practitioners. An individual's breeding probability can be a sensitive indicator of the decision to initiate reproductive behavior under varying environmental conditions, has strong fitness consequences, and can be considered the first step in a life history trade-off between allocating resources for breeding activities or self-survival. Using a 14-year time series spanning large variation in climatic conditions and the entirety of a population's breeding range, we estimated the effects of extreme weather conditions (drought) on the state-specific probabilities of breeding and survival of an endangered bird, the Florida Snail Kite ( Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus ). Our analysis accounted for uncertainty in breeding status assignment, a common source of uncertainty that is often ignored when states are based on field observations. Breeding probabilities in adult kites (>1 year of age) decreased during droughts, whereas the probability of breeding in young kites (1 year of age) tended to increase. Individuals attempting to breed showed no evidence of reduced future survival. Although population viability analyses of this species and other species often implicitly assume that all adults will attempt to breed, we find that breeding probabilities were significantly <1 for all 13 estimable years considered. Our results suggest that experience is an important factor determining whether or not individuals attempt to breed during harsh environmental conditions and that reproductive effort may be constrained by an individual's quality and/or despotic behavior among individuals attempting to breed.

Florida↗

USGS2011

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗

USGS2009

Occupancy estimation and the closure assumption

1. Recent advances in occupancy estimation that adjust for imperfect detection have provided substantial improvements over traditional approaches and are receiving considerable use in applied ecology. To estimate and adjust for detectability, occupancy modelling requires multiple surveys at a site and requires the assumption of 'closure' between surveys, i.e. no changes in occupancy between surveys. Violations of this assumption could bias parameter estimates; however, little work has assessed model sensitivity to violations of this assumption or how commonly such violations occur in nature. 2. We apply a modelling procedure that can test for closure to two avian point-count data sets in Montana and New Hampshire, USA, that exemplify time-scales at which closure is often assumed. These data sets illustrate different sampling designs that allow testing for closure but are currently rarely employed in field investigations. Using a simulation study, we then evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates to changes in site occupancy and evaluate a power analysis developed for sampling designs that is aimed at limiting the likelihood of closure. 3. Application of our approach to point-count data indicates that habitats may frequently be open to changes in site occupancy at time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, with 71% and 100% of species investigated in Montana and New Hampshire respectively, showing violation of closure across time periods of 3 weeks and 8 days respectively. 4. Simulations suggest that models assuming closure are sensitive to changes in occupancy. Power analyses further suggest that the modelling procedure we apply can effectively test for closure. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our demonstration that sites may be open to changes in site occupancy over time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, combined with the sensitivity of models to violations of the closure assumption, highlights the importance of properly addressing the closure assumption in both sampling designs and analysis. Furthermore, inappropriately applying closed models could have negative consequences when monitoring rare or declining species for conservation and management decisions, because violations of closure typically lead to overestimates of the probability of occurrence.

Montana;New Hampshire↗