Geology topics

Robert Edward Chase

Publications and source records attributed to Robert Edward Chase.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Earthquake scenario development in conjunction with the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model

We present earthquake scenarios developed to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the US Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). Scenarios can serve a range of local and regional needs, from developing proactive-targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk to aiding emergency management planning. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in methods, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Specifically, we discuss the scenarios developed, challenges, and lessons learned in the development process, and how this work aided the development of the 2023 NSHM itself. In total, 28 scenarios were developed for Hawaii, Utah, Alaska, and Virginia considering the 2023 NSHM science, past scenario efforts, and input from local experts and stakeholders. Finally, we investigate how NSHM modeling decisions can change estimated impacts to Utah and Hawaii in more detail showing, for example, that a shallower dip of the Wasatch fault under Salt Lake City can increase predicted ground-motion intensities and therefore estimated losses and deaths.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2023

Earthquake scenarios for Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago De Los Caballeros, Dominican Republic

Earthquake risk associated with Quito, Ecuador; Cali, Colombia; and Santiago de los Caballeros, Dominican Republic is examined by generating a set of hypothetical earthquake scenarios considering seismic sources, recent seismicity, and major historical earthquakes recorded in the vicinity. In this study, particular focus is given to the development of earthquake scenarios for use in emergency planning in each city as well as stimulating discussion with respect to addressing the gaps in current understanding of built stock inventory and their vulnerability when subjected to strong shaking. Exposure and vulnerability models from the Global Earthquake Model foundation, hazard and local site information available for the cities, and the U.S. Geological Survey near‐real‐time products are utilized to estimate potential consequences for postearthquake response planning. Results showed that the historic city centers remain the most susceptible to experiencing severe damage resulting in widespread casualties. Similarly, the scenarios highlight areas susceptible to shaking induced ground failure hazards, which may pose additional challenges when responding to such earthquakes. Moderate earthquakes originating from nearby seismic sources, for example, Quito fault system for Quito or the Septentrional fault zone in the case of Santiago de Los Caballeros, could potentially be of greater consequence in terms of direct economic impact and disruption to the city when compared to very large distant subduction interface earthquakes.

Cali, Santiago De Los Caballeros, Quito↗

USGS2022

Earthquake scenario development in the 2023 USGS NSHM update

Earthquake scenarios are generally selected to serve a wide variety of local and regional needs ranging from testing a community’s ability to respond to earthquakes to developing proactive targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in more complex methods like probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Accordingly, the U.S. Geological Survey plans to produce a suite of scenarios to accompany the release of the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). The manuscript describes a preliminary framework for scenario development from hazard and risk/consequence perspectives. Historical seismicity-, hazard-, and consequence-based scenario selection techniques as well as other factors in scenario selection are discussed. The 2023 NSHM scenario development efforts aim to incorporate both hazard and risk considerations while working in close collaboration with local experts and stakeholders.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2021

Hazard-consistent seismic losses and collapse capacities for light-frame wood buildings in California and Cascadia

We evaluate the seismic performance of modern seismically designed wood light-frame (WLF) buildings, considering regional seismic hazard characteristics that influence ground motion duration and frequency content and, thus, seismic risk. Results show that WLF building response correlates strongly with ground motion spectral shape but weakly with duration. Due to the flatter spectral shape of ground motions from subduction events, WLF buildings at sites affected by these earthquakes may experience double the economic losses for a given intensity of shaking, and collapse capacities may be reduced by up to 50%, compared to those at sites affected by crustal earthquakes. These differences could motivate significant increases in design values at sites affected by subduction earthquakes to achieve the uniform risk targets of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7 standard.

Alaska, California, Oregon Washington↗