Geology topics

Remegio Confesor

Publications and source records attributed to Remegio Confesor.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Uncertainty in critical source area predictions from watershed-scale hydrologic models

Watershed-scale hydrologic models are frequently used to inform conservation and restoration efforts by identifying critical source areas (CSAs; alternatively 'hotspots'), defined as areas that export relatively greater quantities of nutrients and sediment. The CSAs can then be prioritized or ‘targeted’ for conservation and restoration to ensure efficient use of limited resources. However, CSA simulations from watershed-scale hydrologic models may be uncertain and it is critical that the extent and implications of this uncertainty be conveyed to stakeholders and decision makers. We used an ensemble of four independently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models and a SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model to simulate CSA locations for flow, phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment within the ~17,000-km 2 Maumee River watershed at the HUC-12 scale. We then assessed uncertainty in CSA simulations determined as the variation in CSA locations across the models. Our application of an ensemble of models - differing with respect to inputs, structure, and parameterization - facilitated an improved accounting of CSA prediction uncertainty. We found that the models agreed on the location of a subset of CSAs, and that these locations may be targeted with relative confidence. However, models more often disagreed on CSA locations. On average, only 16%–46% of HUC-12 subwatersheds simulated as a CSA by one model were also simulated as a CSA by a different model. Our work shows that simulated CSA locations are highly uncertain and may vary substantially across models. Hence, while models may be useful in informing conservation and restoration planning, their application to identify CSA locations would benefit from comprehensive uncertainty analyses to avoid inefficient use of limited resources.

Ohio↗

USGS2021

Evaluating management options to reduce Lake Erie algal blooms using an ensemble of watershed models

Reducing harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie, situated between the United States and Canada, requires implementing best management practices to decrease nutrient loading from upstream sources. Bi-national water quality targets have been set for total and dissolved phosphorus loads, with the ultimate goal of reaching these targets in 9-out-of-10 years. Row crop agriculture dominates the land use in the Western Lake Erie Basin thus requiring efforts to mitigate nutrient loads from agricultural systems. To determine the types and extent of agricultural management practices needed to reach the water quality goals, we used five independently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool models to evaluate the effects of 18 management scenarios over a 10-year period on nutrient export. Guidance from a stakeholder group was provided throughout the project, and resulted in improved data, development of realistic scenarios, and expanded outreach. Subsurface placement of phosphorus fertilizers, cover crops, riparian buffers, and wetlands were among the most effective management options. But, only in one realistic scenario did a majority (3/5) of the models predict that the total phosphorus loading target would be met in 9-out-of-10 years. Further, the dissolved phosphorus loading target was predicted to meet the 9-out-of-10-year goal by only one model and only in three scenarios. In all scenarios evaluated, the 9-out-of-10-year goal was not met based on the average of model predictions. Ensemble modeling revealed general agreement about the effects of several practices although some scenarios resulted in a wide range of uncertainty. Overall, our results demonstrate that there are multiple pathways to approach the established water quality goals, but greater adoption rates of practices than those tested here will likely be needed to attain the management targets.

Michigan↗

USGS2017

Multiple models guide strategies for agricultural nutrient reductions

In response to degraded water quality, federal policy makers in the US and Canada called for a 40% reduction in phosphorus (P) loads to Lake Erie, and state and provincial policy makers in the Great Lakes region set a load-reduction target for the year 2025. Here, we configured five separate SWAT (US Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool) models to assess load reduction strategies for the agriculturally dominated Maumee River watershed, the largest P source contributing to toxic algal blooms in Lake Erie. Although several potential pathways may achieve the target loads, our results show that any successful pathway will require large-scale implementation of multiple practices. For example, one successful pathway involved targeting 50% of row cropland that has the highest P loss in the watershed with a combination of three practices: subsurface application of P fertilizers, planting cereal rye as a winter cover crop, and installing buffer strips. Achieving these levels of implementation will require local, state/provincial, and federal agencies to collaborate with the private sector to set shared implementation goals and to demand innovation and honest assessments of water quality-related programs, policies, and partnerships.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2016

Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have been increasing in extent and intensity in the western basin of Lake Erie. The cyanobacteria Microcystis produces toxins that pose serious threats to animal and human health, resulting in beach closures and impaired water supplies, and have even forced a “do not drink” advisory for the City of Toledo water system for several days in the summer of 2014. The main driver of Lake Erie HABs is elevated phosphorus loading from watersheds draining to the western basin, particularly from the Maumee River watershed (Obenour et al. 2014). Through the 2012 Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA), the U.S. and Canadian governments agreed to revise Lake Erie phosphorus loading targets to decrease HAB severity below levels representing a hazard to ecosystem and human health. New targets limit March-July loadings from the Maumee River to 186 metric tonnes of dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and 860 metric tonnes of total phosphorus (TP) – a 40% reduction from 2008 loads (GLWQA 2016). The Great Lakes region must now determine what policy options are most effective and feasible for meeting those targets. While all sources are important, our focus is on agriculture because it overwhelms other sources. In a conservative ballpark estimate we found that 85% of the Maumee River’s load to Lake Erie comes from farm fertilizers and manures, even though this is only 10% of farmland fertilizer applications (Figure 1). Load targets will not be met without reductions from agriculture. Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets.

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio↗