Diagnosing the flood of 1997 in San Francisco Bay with observations and model results
No abstract available.
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Geology topics
Reginald J. Uncles
Publications and source records attributed to Reginald J. Uncles.
Seasonal/yearly salinity variations in San Francisco Bay
The ability of resource agencies to manage fish, wildlife and freshwater supplies of San Francisco Bay estuary requires an integrated knowledge of the relations between the biota and their physical environment. A key factor in these relations is the role of salinity in determining both the physical and the biological character of the estuary. The saltiness of the water, and particularly its seasonal and interannual patterns of variability, affects which aquatic species live where within the estuary. Salinity also determines where water can and cannot be diverted for human consumption and irrigated agriculture, and plays a role in determining the capacity of the estuary to cleanse itself of wastes. In short, salinity is a fundamental property of estuarine physics and chemistry that, in turn, determines the biological characteristics of each estuary. Freshwater is a major control on estuarine salinity. Most freshwater supplied to the Bay is from river flow through the Delta, which is primarily runoff from the Sierra Nevada. Most contaminants in San Francisco Bay are from the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valley and the local watershed around the Bay rather than the sea or atmosphere. Land is the primary source of freshwater and freshwater serves as a tracer of land-derived substances such as the trace metals (copper, lead and selenium), pesticides and plant nutrients (nitrate and phosphate). The U.S. Geological Survey is collaborating with other agencies and institutions in studying San Francisco Bay salinity using field observations and numerical simulations to define the physical processes that control salinity. The issues that arise from salinity fluctuations, however, differ in the northern and southern parts of the bay. In North Bay we need to know how salinity responds to freshwater flow through the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta; this knowledge will benefit water managers who determine how much delta flow is needed a) to protect freshwater supplies for municipal water use and b) modulate salinity for a healthy estuary. In South Bay we need to know where the freshwater comes from (the distant Delta or local streams) to sort out the sources of a) contamination or b) dilution.
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Modeling and predicting intertidal variations of the salinity field in the Bay/Delta
San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta have challenged estuarine modelers for some years. Accurate, broad-scale models of this estuary have been in demand by those concerned with its ecological health and the development of sound management policies. A description and better understanding of the dynamics that govern the bay/delta are complicated by the system's complexity, requiring models that are sophisticated enough to capture the subtle physical processes involved. One approach to simulating daily to monthly variability in the bay is the development of intertidal model using tidally-averaged equations and a time step on the order of the day. An intertidal numerical model of the bay's physics, capable of portraying seasonal and inter-annual variability, would have several uses. Observations are limited in time and space, so simulation could help fill the gaps. Also, the ability to simulate multi-year episodes (eg, an extended drought) could provide insight into the response of the ecosystem to such events. Finally, such a model could be used in a forecast mode wherein predicted delta flow is used as model input, and predicted salinity distribution is output with estimates days and months in advance. This note briefly introduces such a tidally-averaged model (Uncles and Peterson, in press) and a corresponding predictive scheme for baywide forecasting.
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