Geology topics

Raymond J. Davis

Publications and source records attributed to Raymond J. Davis.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Listening for extinction: Range-wide occupancy highlights critical risks and priorities for northern spotted owls

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) continues to decline across its range, threatened by habitat disturbances and invasive barred owls ( Strix varia ). We conducted a range-wide spotted owl occupancy assessment using 2.1 million h of passive acoustic recordings from 4081 survey stations within 1027 randomly selected 5-km 2 hexagons across six physiographic regions. Applying multistate occupancy models, we estimated probabilities of landscape use (by at least one northern spotted owl) and pair occupancy (occupied by both a male and a female), while accounting for imperfect and sex-biased detection probability. Detection probability of pairs was low in most regions, primarily due to undetected females, but increased with survey effort. If management decisions can only be made when there is a high probability of detecting both sexes when they are present, then longer surveys are one approach to support the decisions. Landscape use and pair occupancy were positively associated with old-growth forest structure and topographic diversity. We also found a pronounced latitudinal gradient in spotted owl landscape use rates with estimated mean landscape use of 0.17 (SE = 0.03) and 0.16 (SE = 0.02) in the two most northern regions, and 0.54 (SE = 0.04) and 0.52 (SE = 0.05) in the two most southern regions. Pair occupancy rates were higher in southern regions (0.29, SE = 0.03, 0.43, SE = 0.05) and very low in northern regions (0.04, SE = 0.01, 0.03, SE = 0.01). In contrast to spotted owls, barred owls were detected in 90% of northern hexagons and 50% of southern hexagons, and barred owl calling intensity was over eight times higher than spotted owls. These results highlight extinction risks in several regions and suggest that management actions, such as spatially targeted barred owl control and protection of structurally complex habitats, have a narrow temporal window in which they can be effective in lowering the probability of regional extirpations. We generated predictive maps of landscape use and pair occupancy, which could help guide regional conservation strategies. This study demonstrates how passive acoustic monitoring and machine learning can be used for broad-scale ecological monitoring, identifying extinction risk thresholds, supporting adaptive management, and improving conservation outcomes for wide-ranging and elusive species that can reliably be detected through unique vocalizations.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2023

Estimating northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) pair detection probabilities based on call-back surveys associated with long-term mark-recapture studies, 1993–2018

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ; hereinafter NSO) was listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act in 1990 and population declines have continued since that listing. Given the species’ protected status, any proposed activities on Federal lands that might impact NSO require consultation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and part of that consultation often includes surveys to determine presence and occupancy status of the species in the proposed activity area. The objective of this report is to present study-area specific estimates of the probability of detection for NSO pairs from twelve 2-week seasonal survey periods using data from a recent range-wide meta-analysis. These estimates were a by-product of pair occupancy modeling but might provide insight into potential changes in the effect of the invasive barred owl on NSO detection rates. We used two-species multi-season occupancy models to estimate the probability of detection for NSOs on each of 11 study areas for each 2-week survey period and relative to the range-wide effect of barred owl presence or absence. Detection probabilities within the season generally increased from the earliest surveys in March through mid-season, decreasing again in the late season on five study areas. For three other study areas, detection rates were highest during the earliest survey periods in late March or early April. Estimates of cumulative seasonal detection of NSO (across a maximum of six within-season surveys) were less than 0.90 when barred owls (BO) were present on all but one study area, regardless of when surveys were conducted within a season. However, despite low detection rates, the probability that a territory was occupied when an NSO pair was not detected over six within-season surveys was also very low. When BO are not present on a territory, a six-survey protocol had a high probability of detecting an NSO pair at least once during the season on all study areas, except for the very lowest per-survey estimates. Conducting most surveys earlier in the season, when the probability of detecting pairs is highest (through May on most areas) could improve seasonal detection rates. However, alternative methods of population monitoring—such as the use of passive acoustic recorders—may be needed to continue monitoring NSO for research and management.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2022

Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the sub-species geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did and did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2021

Differential landscape use by forest owls two years after a mixed-severity wildfire

Owls are important avian predators in forested systems, but little is known about landscape use by most forest-adapted owl species in environments impacted by mixed-severity wildfire. To better understand species-specific patterns of post-wildfire landscape use within an owl guild, we used passive acoustic monitoring using autonomous recording units. The technology is effective for multi-species surveys, especially if some species are rare, nocturnal, or difficult to detect by traditional means. In 2017, we surveyed the interior and adjacent unburned areas of a 10,700-ha mixed-severity wildfire that burned in 2015 in southwest Oregon. We used occupancy modeling to identify patterns of landscape use by five species of forest owls: barred owls ( Strix varia ), great horned owls ( Bubo virginianus ), western screech-owls ( Megascops kennicottii ), northern pygmy-owls ( Glaucidium gnoma ), and northern saw-whet owls ( Aegolius acadicus ). Our results showed a positive relationship between increasing fire severity and probability of use by western screech-owls and a similar but somewhat weaker relationship for northern pygmy-owls. Barred owls were rarely detected in severely burned areas and their use decreased with increased fire severity. We observed generally low landscape use for great horned owls, which decreased with increased fire severity and at higher elevations. Thus, four out of the five species appeared to use recently burned forests at different levels, with only northern saw-whet owls showing near-complete avoidance of the burned area. These findings increase our understanding of the basic ecology of each species and highlight the varied use of burned areas within this community. These previously undocumented patterns of landscape use in burned landscapes should provide insights to managers and policymakers in the Pacific Northwest as climate shifts, and fires may increase in size, frequency, and severity.

Oregon↗

USGS2021

Predicted distribution of a rare and understudied forest carnivore: Humboldt marten (Martes caurina humboldtensis)

Many mammalian species have experienced range contractions. Following a reduction in distribution that has resulted in apparently small and disjunct populations, the Humboldt marten ( Martes caurina humboldtensis ) was recently designated as federally Threatened and state Endangered. This subspecies of Pacific marten occurring in coastal Oregon and northern California, also known as coastal martens, appear unlike martens that occur in snow-associated regions in that vegetation associations appear to differ widely between Humboldt marten populations. We expected current distributions represent realized niches, but estimating factors associated with long-term occurrence was challenging for this rare and little-known species. Here, we assessed the predicted contemporary distribution of Humboldt martens and interpret our findings as hypotheses correlated with the subspecies’ niche to inform strategic conservation actions.

PeerJ↗

USGS2021

Invader removal triggers competitive release in a threatened avian predator

Invasive species can cause extinctions of native species and widespread biodiversity loss. Invader removal is a common management response, but the use of long-term field experiments to characterize effectiveness of removals in benefitting impacted native species is rare. We used a large-scale removal experiment to investigate the demographic response of a threatened native species, the northern spotted owl, to removal of an invasive competitor species, the barred owl. Removal of barred owls had a strong, positive effect on survival of spotted owls, which arrested long-term population declines of spotted owls. The results demonstrate that the long-term persistence of spotted owls will depend heavily on reducing the negative impacts of barred owls while simultaneously addressing other threats, such as habitat loss.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Range-wide declines of northern spotted owl populations in the Pacific Northwest: A meta-analysis

The northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls ( Strix varia ), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess population trends and factors affecting those trends in northern spotted owls using 26 years of survey and capture-recapture data from 11 study areas across the owls' geographic range to analyze demographic traits, rates of population change, and occupancy parameters for spotted owl territories. We found that northern spotted owl populations experienced significant declines of 6–9% annually on 6 study areas and 2–5% annually on 5 other study areas. Annual declines translated to ≤35% of the populations remaining on 7 study areas since 1995. Barred owl presence on spotted owl territories was the primary factor negatively affecting apparent survival, recruitment, and ultimately, rates of population change. Analysis of spotted and barred owl detections in an occupancy framework corroborated the capture-recapture analyses with barred owl presence increasing territorial extinction and decreasing territorial colonization of spotted owls. While landscape habitat components reduced the effect of barred owls on these rates of decline, they did not reverse the negative trend. Our analyses indicated that northern spotted owl populations potentially face extirpation if the negative effects of barred owls are not ameliorated while maintaining northern spotted owl habitat across their range.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2021

Simulating the effort necessary to detect changes in northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) populations using passive acoustic monitoring

Passive acoustic monitoring is a promising method for monitoring rare and nocturnal species, and for tracking changes in forest wildlife biodiversity. We conducted simulations to compare and evaluate various passive acoustic sampling designs effectiveness for monitoring spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) population trends. We found that each design was effective for detecting a decline (or stability) in spotted own populations within 10 years with even a moderate amount of sampling. There are however, important considerations and tradeoffs among the various design options. Often, estimated changes in use of the landscape were biased with a consistently lower magnitude of change compared to simulated changes in the population. Although this method has challenges, passive acoustic monitoring can be used to effectively monitor northern spotted owls in the Pacific Northwest.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Passive acoustic monitoring effectively detects Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls over a range of forest conditions

Passive acoustic monitoring using autonomous recording units (ARUs) is a fast-growing area of wildlife research especially for rare, cryptic species that vocalize. Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) populations have been monitored since the mid-1980s using mark–recapture methods. To evaluate an alternative survey method, we used ARUs to detect calls of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls ( S. varia ), a congener that has expanded its range into the Pacific Northwest and threatens Northern Spotted Owl persistence. We set ARUs at 30 500-ha hexagons (150 ARU stations) with recent Northern Spotted Owl activity and high Barred Owl density within Northern Spotted Owl demographic study areas in Oregon and Washington, and set ARUs to record continuously each night from March to July, 2017. We reviewed spectrograms (visual representations of sound) and tagged target vocalizations to extract calls from ~160,000 hr of recordings. Even in a study area with low occupancy rates on historical territories (Washington’s Olympic Peninsula), the probability of detecting a Northern Spotted Owl when it was present in a hexagon exceeded 0.95 after 3 weeks of recording. Environmental noise, mainly from rain, wind, and streams, decreased detection probabilities for both species over all study areas. Using demographic information about known Northern Spotted Owls, we found that weekly detection probabilities of Northern Spotted Owls were higher when ARUs were closer to known nests and activity centers and when owls were paired, suggesting passive acoustic data alone could help locate Northern Spotted Owl pairs on the landscape. These results demonstrate that ARUs can effectively detect Northern Spotted Owls when they are present, even in a landscape with high Barred Owl density, thereby facilitating the use of passive, occupancy-based study designs to monitor Northern Spotted Owl populations.

Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2020

Disturbance refugia within mosaics of forest fire, drought, and insect outbreaks

Disturbance refugia – locations that experience less severe or frequent disturbances than the surrounding landscape – provide a framework to highlight not only where and why these biological legacies persist as adjacent areas change but also the value of those legacies in sustaining biodiversity. Recent studies of disturbance refugia in forest ecosystems have focused primarily on fire, with a growing recognition of important applications to land management. Given the wide range of disturbance processes in forests, developing a broader understanding of disturbance refugia is important for scientists and land managers, particularly in the context of anthropogenic climate change. We illustrate the framework of disturbance refugia through the individual and interactive effects of three prominent forest disturbance agents: fire, drought, and insect outbreaks. We provide examples of disturbance refugia and related applications to natural resource management in western North America, demonstrate methods for characterizing refugia, identify research priorities, and discuss why a more comprehensive definition of disturbance refugia is relevant to conservation globally.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

USGS2020

A guidebook to spatial datasets for conservation planning under climate change in the Pacific Northwest

This guidebook provides user-friendly overviews of a variety of spatial datasets relevant to conservation and management of natural resources in the face of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, United States. Each guidebook chapter was created using a standardized template to summarize a spatial dataset or a group of closely related datasets. Datasets were selected according to standardized criteria based on input through a collaborative process involving researchers and natural-resource managers throughout the Pacific Northwest region. In each chapter, basic spatial and temporal information is provided for the dataset, along with a conceptual overview, glossary of key terms, links to download data and supporting documentation, a brief methods summary describing how the dataset was created, guidelines for dataset interpretation, assessment of uncertainties along with evaluation of caveats and simplifying assumptions, and information about potential and actual conservation applications of the dataset. Collectively, this information provides natural-resource managers with “snapshots” of a variety of datasets representing diverse processes and conditions, including climate projections, changes in hydrologic conditions, vegetation and fire-regime shifts, animal habitat changes, species movements, and topographic and soil conditions relevant to climate change. Along with other types of data and site-specific information, the datasets described in this guidebook have the potential to inform management of valued natural resources throughout the Pacific Northwest region in the context of adaptation to changing climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2019

The past and future roles of competition and habitat in the range‐wide occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls

Slow ecological processes challenge conservation. Short‐term variability can obscure the importance of slower processes that may ultimately determine the state of a system. Furthermore, management actions with slow responses can be hard to justify. One response to slow processes is to explicitly concentrate analysis on state dynamics. Here, we focus on identifying drivers of Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) territorial occupancy dynamics across 11 study areas spanning their geographic range and forecasting response to potential management actions. Competition with Barred Owls ( Strix varia ) has increased Spotted Owl territory extinction probabilities across all study areas and driven recent declines in Spotted Owl populations. Without management intervention, the Northern Spotted Owl subspecies will be extirpated from parts of its current range within decades. In the short term, Barred Owl removal can be effective. Over longer time spans, however, maintaining or improving habitat conditions can help promote the persistence of northern spotted owl populations. In most study areas, habitat effects on expected Northern Spotted Owl territorial occupancy are actually greater than the effects of competition from Barred Owls. This study suggests how intensive management actions (removal of a competitor) with rapid results can complement a slower management action (i.e., promoting forest succession).

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2019

Activity center selection by northern spotted owls

The federally threatened northern spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) has been intensively studied across its range, and habitat needs for the species have influenced forest management in northwestern North America for decades. Dense forest canopies are often reported in the scientific literature and agency management plans as an important habitat attribute for spotted owls, though the means of measuring forest canopy and interpreting species requirements vary across studies and more importantly, among management plans. We used light detection and ranging (lidar) measurements of canopy cover, canopy surface heterogeneity, and upper canopy surface connectivity, and an index of the presence of a competitive invasive species, the barred owl ( S. varia ), in multinomial discrete choice models using a Bayesian framework to evaluate selection of forest cover types by spotted owls in Oregon, USA, 2008–2015. We designated yearly activity centers based on the most biologically significant observation during the nesting season (Mar–Aug), generally centered on the nest tree. Spotted owls selected activity centers with more canopy cover and higher heterogeneity of the canopy surface within 100 m than was available within their territories. The average proportion of canopy cover within 100 m of a spotted owl activity center was 0.79 ± 0.12 (SD; range = 0.34–0.99). The presence of barred owls did not explain variability in selection of spotted owl activity centers, but barred owls might not affect third‐order habitat selection within territories, or our index was too spatially coarse to detect these effects on spotted owl resource selection. We demonstrate that lidar provides researchers and managers with a tool that can accurately measure forest canopies over large areas, and assist in mapping spotted owl habitat.

Oregon↗

USGS2018

Isolation by distance versus landscape resistance: Understanding dominant patterns of genetic structure in Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina)

Landscape genetics investigations examine how the availability and configuration of habitat influence genetic structure of plants and animals. We used landscape genetics to evaluate the role that forest connectivity plays in determining genetic structure of the federally-threatened Northern Spotted Owl ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) using genotypes of 339 Northern Spotted Owls obtained for 10 microsatellite loci. Spatial clustering analyses identified a distinct genetic cluster at the southern extent of the region examined. This cluster could not be linked to landscape connectivity patterns and suggested that post-Pleistocene processes were involved with its development rather than contemporary landscape configuration. We also compared matrices of pairwise inter-individual genetic distances with resistance distances derived from a circuit-theory based framework. Resistance distances were obtained for an idealized raster map that reflected continuous unimpeded dispersal habitat across the landscape along with five empirically-derived raster maps reflecting the 1870’s, 1940’s, 1986, 1994, and 2012. Resistance distances from the idealized map served as surrogates for linear geographic distances. Relative to idealized conditions, resistance distances were ~250% higher in the 1940’s and ~200% higher from 1986 onward. Resistance distances from the 1870’s were ~40% higher than idealized conditions. Inter-individual genetic distances were most highly correlated with resistance distances from the idealized map rather than any of the empirical maps. Two hypotheses explain our results. First, our results may reflect temporal lags between the onset of large-scale habitat alterations and their novel effects on genetic structure in long-lived species such as Northern Spotted Owls. Second, because Northern Spotted Owls disperse over long distances, our results may indicate that forest habitat has never been sufficiently fragmented to the point where connectivity was disrupted. The second hypothesis could indicate that forest management practices mandated by the Northwest Forest Plan succeeded with one of its primary goals. However, our results do not represent a complete portrayal of the status of Northern Spotted Owls given detection of significant population declines and bottlenecks in other studies. Future investigations based on computer simulations may help distinguish between hypotheses.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2017

Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl ( Strix varia ) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

Ecology↗

USGS2015

The effects of habitat, climate, and Barred Owls on long-term demography of Northern Spotted Owls

Estimates of species' vital rates and an understanding of the factors affecting those parameters over time and space can provide crucial information for management and conservation. We used mark–recapture, reproductive output, and territory occupancy data collected during 1985–2013 to evaluate population processes of Northern Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) in 11 study areas in Washington, Oregon, and northern California, USA. We estimated apparent survival, fecundity, recruitment, rate of population change, and local extinction and colonization rates, and investigated relationships between these parameters and the amount of suitable habitat, local and regional variation in meteorological conditions, and competition with Barred Owls ( Strix varia ). Data were analyzed for each area separately and in a meta-analysis of all areas combined, following a strict protocol for data collection, preparation, and analysis. We used mixed effects linear models for analyses of fecundity, Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models for analyses of apparent annual survival (ϕ), and a reparameterization of the Jolly-Seber capture–recapture model (i.e. reverse Jolly-Seber; RJS) to estimate annual rates of population change (λ RJS ) and recruitment. We also modeled territory occupancy dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls and Barred Owls in each study area using 2-species occupancy models. Estimated mean annual rates of population change (λ) suggested that Spotted Owl populations declined from 1.2% to 8.4% per year depending on the study area. The weighted mean estimate of λ for all study areas was 0.962 (± 0.019 SE; 95% CI: 0.925–0.999), indicating an estimated range-wide decline of 3.8% per year from 1985 to 2013. Variation in recruitment rates across the range of the Spotted Owl was best explained by an interaction between total winter precipitation and mean minimum winter temperature. Thus, recruitment rates were highest when both total precipitation (29 cm) and minimum winter temperature (−9.5°C) were lowest. Barred Owl presence was associated with increased local extinction rates of Spotted Owl pairs for all 11 study areas. Habitat covariates were related to extinction rates for Spotted Owl pairs in 8 of 11 study areas, and a greater amount of suitable owl habitat was generally associated with decreased extinction rates. We observed negative effects of Barred Owl presence on colonization rates of Spotted Owl pairs in 5 of 11 study areas. The total amount of suitable Spotted Owl habitat was positively associated with colonization rates in 5 areas, and more habitat disturbance was associated with lower colonization rates in 2 areas. We observed strong declines in derived estimates of occupancy in all study areas. Mean fecundity of females was highest for adults (0.309 ± 0.027 SE), intermediate for 2-yr-olds (0.179 ± 0.040 SE), and lowest for 1-yr-olds (0.065 ± 0.022 SE). The presence of Barred Owls and habitat covariates explained little of the temporal variation in fecundity in most study areas. Climate covariates occurred in competitive fecundity models in 8 of 11 study areas, but support for these relationships was generally weak. The fecundity meta-analysis resulted in 6 competitive models, all of which included the additive effects of geographic region and annual time variation. The 2 top-ranked models also weakly supported the additive negative effects of the amount of suitable core area habitat, Barred Owl presence, and the amount of edge habitat on fecundity. We found strong support for a negative effect of Barred Owl presence on apparent survival of Spotted Owls in 10 of 11 study areas, but found few strong effects of habitat on survival at the study area scale. Climate covariates occurred in top or competitive survival models for 10 of 11 study areas, and in most cases the relationships were as predicted; however, there was little consistency among areas regarding the relative importance of specific climate covariates. In contrast, meta-analysis results suggested that Spotted Owl survival was higher across all study areas when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was in a warming phase and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was negative, with a strongly negative SOI indicative of El Niño events. The best model that included the Barred Owl covariate (BO) was ranked 4 th and also included the PDO covariate, but the BO effect was strongly negative. Our results indicated that Northern Spotted Owl populations were declining throughout the range of the subspecies and that annual rates of decline were accelerating in many areas. We observed strong evidence that Barred Owls negatively affected Spotted Owl populations, primarily by decreasing apparent survival and increasing local territory extinction rates. However, the amount of suitable owl habitat, local weather, and regional climatic patterns also were related to survival, occupancy (via colonization rate), recruitment, and, to a lesser extent, fecundity, although there was inconsistency in regard to which covariates were important for particular demographic parameters or across study areas. In the study areas where habitat was an important source of variation for Spotted Owl demographics, vital rates were generally positively associated with a greater amount of suitable owl habitat. However, Barred Owl densities may now be high enough across the range of the Northern Spotted Owl that, despite the continued management and conservation of suitable owl habitat on federal lands, the long-term prognosis for the persistence of Northern Spotted Owls may be in question without additional management intervention. Based on our study, the removal of Barred Owls from the Green Diamond Resources (GDR) study area had rapid, positive effects on Northern Spotted Owl survival and the rate of population change, supporting the hypothesis that, along with habitat conservation and management, Barred Owl removal may be able to slow or reverse Northern Spotted Owl population declines on at least a localized scale.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2015

The evolution of mapping habitat for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina): A comparison of photo-interpreted, Landsat-based, and lidar-based habitat maps

Wildlife habitat mapping has evolved at a rapid pace over the last few decades. Beginning with simple, often subjective, hand-drawn maps, habitat mapping now involves complex species distribution models (SDMs) using mapped predictor variables derived from remotely sensed data. For species that inhabit large geographic areas, remote sensing technology is often essential for producing range wide maps. Habitat monitoring for northern spotted owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ), whose geographic covers about 23 million ha, is based on SDMs that use Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery to create forest vegetation data layers using gradient nearest neighbor (GNN) methods. Vegetation data layers derived from GNN are modeled relationships between forest inventory plot data, climate and topographic data, and the spectral signatures acquired by the satellite. When used as predictor variables for SDMs, there is some transference of the GNN modeling error to the final habitat map. Recent increases in the use of light detection and ranging (lidar) data, coupled with the need to produce spatially accurate and detailed forest vegetation maps have spurred interest in its use for SDMs and habitat mapping. Instead of modeling predictor variables from remotely sensed spectral data, lidar provides direct measurements of vegetation height for use in SDMs. We expect a SDM habitat map produced from directly measured predictor variables to be more accurate than one produced from modeled predictors. We used maximum entropy (Maxent) SDM modeling software to compare predictive performance and estimates of habitat area between Landsat-based and lidar-based northern spotted owl SDMs and habitat maps. We explored the differences and similarities between these maps, and to a pre-existing aerial photo-interpreted habitat map produced by local wildlife biologists. The lidar-based map had the highest predictive performance based on 10 bootstrapped replicate models (AUC = 0.809 ± 0.011), but the performance of the Landsat-based map was within acceptable limits (AUC = 0.717 ± 0.021). As is common with photo-interpreted maps, there was no accuracy assessment available for comparison. The photo-interpreted map produced the highest and lowest estimates of habitat area, depending on which habitat classes were included (nesting, roosting, and foraging habitat = 9962 ha, nesting habitat only = 6036 ha). The Landsat-based map produced an estimate of habitat area that was within this range (95% CI: 6679–9592 ha), while the lidar-based map produced an area estimate similar to what was interpreted by local wildlife biologists as nesting (i.e., high quality) habitat using aerial imagery (95% CI: 5453–7216). Confidence intervals of habitat area estimates from the SDMs based on Landsat and lidar overlapped. We concluded that both Landsat- and lidar-based SDMs produced reasonable maps and area estimates for northern spotted owl habitat within the study area. The lidar-based map was more precise and spatially similar to what local wildlife biologists considered spotted owl nesting habitat. The Landsat-based map provided a less precise spatial representation of habitat within the relatively small geographic confines of the study area, but habitat area estimates were similar to both the photo-interpreted and lidar-based maps. Photo-interpreted maps are time consuming to produce, subjective in nature, and difficult to replicate. SDMs provide a framework for efficiently producing habitat maps that can be replicated as habitat conditions change over time, provided that comparable remotely sensed data are available. When the SDM uses predictor variables extracted from lidar data, it can produce a habitat map that is both accurate and useful at large and small spatial scales. In comparison, SDMs using Landsat-based data are more appropriate for large scale analyses of amounts and general spatial patterns of habitat at regional scales.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗