Geology topics

Ray J. Weldon

Publications and source records attributed to Ray J. Weldon.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Latest Quaternary slip rates of the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas fault, southern California, from Cajon Creek to Badger Canyon

Four new latest Pleistocene slip rates from two sites along the northwestern half of the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas fault suggest the slip rate decreases southeastward as slip transfers from the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault onto the northern San Jacinto fault zone. At Badger Canyon, offsets coupled with radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages provide three independent slip rates (with 95% confidence intervals): (1) the apex of the oldest dated alluvial fan (~30–28 ka) is right-laterally offset about 300–400 m yielding a slip rate of 13.5 +2.2/-2.5 mm/yr; (2) a terrace riser incised into the northwestern side of this alluvial fan is offset about 280-290 m and was abandoned ~23 ka, yielding a slip rate of 11.9 +0.9/-1.2 mm/yr; and (3) a younger alluvial fan (13-15 ka) has been offset 120–200 m from the same source canyon, yielding a slip rate of 11.8 +4.2/-3.5 mm/yr. These rates are all consistent and result in a preferred, time-averaged rate for the past ~28 ka of 12.8 +5.3/-4.7 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), with an 84% confidence interval of 10-16 mm/yr. At Matthews Ranch, in Pitman Canyon, about 13 km northwest of Badger Canyon, a landslide offset ~ 650 m with a 10Be age of ~47 ka yields a slip rate of 14.5 +9.9/-6.2 mm/yr (95% confidence interval). All of these slip rates for the San Bernardino strand are significantly slower than a previously published rate of 24.5 ± 3.5 mm/yr at the southern end of the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault (Weldon and Sieh, 1985), suggesting that ~12 mm/yr of slip transfers from the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault to the northern San Jacinto fault zone (and other faults) between Lone Pine Canyon and Badger Canyon, with most (if not all) of this slip transfer happening near Cajon Creek. This has been a consistent behavior of the fault for at least the past ~47 ka.

California↗

USGS2021

Late Holocene slip rate of the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, California

The geologic slip rate on the Mojave section of the San Andreas fault is poorly constrained, despite its importance for understanding earthquake hazard, apparent discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates along this fault section, and long‐term fault interactions in southern California. Here, we use surficial geologic mapping, excavations, and radiocarbon and luminescence dating to quantify the displacements and ages of late Holocene landforms offset by the fault at three sites. At the Ranch Center site, the slip rate is determined using the base of a fan marking incision and deflection of an ephemeral channel. At the adjacent Key Slide site, the margin of a landslide deposited on indigenous fire hearths provides a minimum rate. At the X‐12 site, the slip rate is determined from a channel that incised into a broad fan surface, and is deflected and beheaded by the fault. We use maximum–minimum bounds on both the displacement and age of each offset feature to calculate slip rate for each site independently. Overlap of the three independent rate ranges yields a rate of 33–39 mm/yr over the last 3 ka, under the assumption that the sites share a common history, given their proximity. Considered in sequence, site‐level epistemic uncertainties in the data permit but do not require a rate increase since ∼1200 cal B.P. Modest rate changes can be explained by aleatory variability in earthquake timing and magnitude; larger changes could suggest a shared regional variation with the Garlock and other faults. The new late Holocene slip rates are consistent with geodetic model estimates that include a viscoelastic crust and earthquake cycle effects. The geologic slip rates also provide average slip over dozens of earthquake cycles—a key constraint for long‐term earthquake rupture forecasts.

California↗

USGS2021

An assessment of vertical land movement to support coastal hazards planning in Washington state

The sea and land change elevation spatially and temporally from a multitude of processes, so it is necessary to constrain the movement of both to evaluate how coastlines will evolve and how those evolving coastlines will impact the natural and built environment over time. We combine land movement observations from global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs), leveling of geodetic monuments, and tide gauge records with a tectonic model of the Cascadia subduction zone to constrain absolute rates of vertical land movement in coastal Washington. We infer rates of vertical land movement in areas lacking direct observations by interpolating high-quality land movement observations and a discretely sampled interseismic locking model. Here we present a model of absolute vertical land movement that is combined with sea level rise estimates to inform local relative sea level projections on a community-scale. The most rapid vertical uplift (~3.5 mm/year) of the land is found across the northwest Olympic Peninsula, which currently outpaces sea level rise. Conversely, some areas, including a stretch of the northern Pacific Ocean coast from La Push to Kalaloch and the southern Puget Sound, are found to be subsiding at 0.5–1.0 mm/year, exacerbating the rate of relative sea level rise and thereby increasing the vulnerability of coastal communities.

Washington↗

USGS2017

A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more than a century, and it is the first capable of evaluating the short‐term hazards that result from multievent sequences of complex faulting. This article gives an overview of UCERF3, illustrates the short‐term probabilities with aftershock scenarios, and draws some valuable scientific conclusions from the modeling results. In particular, seismic, geologic, and geodetic data, when combined in the UCERF3 framework, reject two types of fault‐based models: long‐term forecasts constrained to have local Gutenberg–Richter scaling, and short‐term forecasts that lack stress relaxation by elastic rebound.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2017

Ground-rupturing earthquakes on the northern Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault, California, 800 A.D. to Present

Paleoseismic data on the timing of ground-rupturing earthquakes constrain the recurrence behavior of active faults and can provide insight on the rupture history of a fault if earthquakes dated at neighboring sites overlap in age and are considered correlative. This study presents the evidence and ages for 11 earthquakes that occurred along the Big Bend section of the southern San Andreas Fault at the Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site. The most recent earthquake to rupture the site was the M w 7.7–7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857. We use over 30 trench excavations to document the structural and sedimentological evolution of a small pull-apart basin that has been repeatedly faulted and folded by ground-rupturing earthquakes. A sedimentation rate of 0.4 cm/yr and abundant organic material for radiocarbon dating contribute to a record that is considered complete since 800 A.D. and includes 10 paleoearthquakes. Earthquakes have ruptured this location on average every ~100 years over the last 1200 years, but individual intervals range from ~22 to 186 years. The coefficient of variation of the length of time between earthquakes (0.7) indicates quasiperiodic behavior, similar to other sites along the southern San Andreas Fault. Comparison with the earthquake chronology at neighboring sites along the fault indicates that only one other 1857-size earthquake could have occurred since 1350 A.D., and since 800 A.D., the Big Bend and Mojave sections have ruptured together at most 50% of the time in M w ≥ 7.3 earthquakes.

California↗

USGS2016

Testing geomorphology-derived rupture histories against the paleoseismic record of the southern San Andreas fault

Evidence for the 340-km-long Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857 is found at each of the high-resolution paleoseismic sites on the southern San Andreas Fault. Using trenching data from these sites, we find that the assemblage of dated paleoearthquakes recurs quasi-periodically (coefficient of variation, COV, of 0.6, Biasi, 2013) and requires ~80% of ruptures were shorter than the 1857 rupture with an average of Mw7.5. In contrast, paleorupture lengths reconstructed from preserved geomorphic offsets extracted from lidar are longer and have repeating displacements that are quite regular (COV=0.2; Zielke et al., 2015). Direct comparison shows that paleoruptures determined from geomorphic offset populations cannot be reconciled with dated paleoearthquakes. Our study concludes that the 1857 rupture was larger than average, average displacements must be < 5 m, and suggests that fault geometry may play a role in fault behavior.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Does paleoseismology forecast the historic rates of large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault system?

The 98-year open interval since the most recent ground-rupturing earthquake in the greater San Andreas boundary fault system would not be predicted by the quasi-periodic recurrence statistics from paleoseismic data. We examine whether the current hiatus could be explained by uncertainties in earthquake dating. Using seven independent paleoseismic records, 100 year intervals may have occurred circa 1150, 1400, and 1700 AD, but they occur in a third or less of sample records drawn at random. A second method sampling from dates conditioned on the existence of a gap of varying length suggests century-long gaps occur 3-10% of the time. A combined record with more sites would lead to lower probabilities. Systematic data over-interpretation is considered an unlikely explanation. Instead some form of non-stationary behaviour seems required, perhaps through long-range fault interaction. Earthquake occurrence since 1000 AD is not inconsistent with long-term cyclicity suggested from long runs of earthquake simulators.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Photomosaics and event evidence from the Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site, trench 1, cuts 5–24, San Andreas Fault Zone, southern California (2010–2012)

The Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site is located within the northern Big Bend of the southern San Andreas Fault (lat 34.8122° N., lon 118.9034° W.), in a small structural basin formed by the fault (fig. 1). The site has been the focus of over a decade of paleoseismic study due to high stratigraphic resolution and abundant dateable material. Trench 1 (T1) was initially excavated as a 50-m long, fault-perpendicular trench crossing the northern half of the basin (Lindvall and others, 2002; Scharer and others, 2014a). Owing to the importance of a high-resolution trench site at this location on a 200-km length of the fault with no other long paleoseismic records, later work progressively lengthened and deepened T1 in a series of excavations, or cuts, that enlarged the original excavation. Scharer and others (2014a) provide the photomosaics and event evidence for the first four cuts, which largely show the upper section of the site, represented by alluvial deposits that date from about A.D. 1500 to present. Scharer and others (2014b) discuss the earthquake evidence and dating at the site within the context of prehistoric rupture lengths and magnitudes on the southern San Andreas Fault. Here we present the photomosaics and event evidence for a series of cuts from the lower section, covering sediments that were deposited from about A.D. 500 to 1500 (fig. 2).

California↗

USGS2015

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2014

Photomosaics and event evidence from the Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site, trench 1, cuts 1–4, San Andreas Fault Zone, southern California (2007–2009)

The Frazier Mountain paleoseismic site is located at the northwest end of the Mojave section of the San Andreas Fault, in a small, closed depression at the base of Frazier Mountain near Tejon Pass, California (lat 34.8122° N., long 118.9034° W.). The site was known to contain a good record of earthquakes due to previous excavations by Lindvall and others (2002). This report provides data resulting from four nested excavations, or cuts, along trench 1 (T1) in 2007 and 2009 at the Frazier Mountain site. The four cuts were excavated progressively deeper and wider in an orientation perpendicular to the San Andreas Fault, exposing distal fan and marsh sediments deposited since ca. A.D. 1200. The results of the trenching show that earthquakes that ruptured the site have repeatedly produced a small depression or sag on the surface, which is subsequently infilled with sand and silt deposits. This report provides high-resolution photomosaics and logs for the T1 cuts, a detailed stratigraphic column for the deposits, and a table summarizing all of the evidence for ground rupturing paleoearthquakes logged in the trenches.

California↗

USGS2013

Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3): the time-independent model

In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M6.5–7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.

California↗

USGS2011

Triggered surface slips in southern California associated with the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake

The April 4, 2010 ( M w 7.2), El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja California, Mexico, earthquake is the strongest earthquake to shake the Salton Trough area since the 1992 ( M w 7.3) Landers earthquake. Similar to the Landers event, ground-surface fracturing occurred on multiple faults in the trough. However, the 2010 event triggered surface slip on more faults in the central Salton Trough than previous earthquakes, including multiple faults in the Yuha Desert area, the southwestern section of the Salton Trough. In the central Salton Trough, surface fracturing occurred along the southern San Andreas, Coyote Creek, Superstition Hills, Wienert, Kalin, and Imperial Faults and along the Brawley Fault Zone, all of which are known to have slipped in historical time, either in primary (tectonic) slip and/or in triggered slip. Surface slip in association with the El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is at least the eighth time in the past 42 years that a local or regional earthquake has triggered slip along faults in the central Salton Trough. In the southwestern part of the Salton Trough, surface fractures (triggered slip) occurred in a broad area of the Yuha Desert. This is the first time that triggered slip has been observed in the southwestern Salton Trough. Triggered slip in the Yuha Desert area occurred along more than two dozen faults, only some of which were recognized before the April 4, 2010, El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. From east to northwest, slip occurred in seven general areas: (1) in the Northern Centinela Fault Zone (newly named), (2) along unnamed faults south of Pinto Wash, (3) along the Yuha Fault (newly named), (4) along both east and west branches of the Laguna Salada Fault, (5) along the Yuha Well Fault Zone (newly revised name) and related faults between it and the Yuha Fault, (6) along the Ocotillo Fault (newly named) and related faults to the north and south, and (7) along the southeasternmost section of the Elsinore Fault. Faults that slipped in the Yuha Desert area include northwest-trending right-lateral faults, northeast-trending left-lateral faults, and north-south faults, some of which had dominantly vertical offset. Triggered slip along the Ocotillo and Elsinore Faults appears to have occurred only in association with the June 14, 2010 ( M w 5.7), aftershock. This aftershock also resulted in slip along other faults near the town of Ocotillo. Triggered offset on faults in the Yuha Desert area was mostly less than 20 mm, with three significant exceptions, including slip of about 50–60 mm on the Yuha Fault, 40 mm on a fault south of Pinto Wash, and about 85 mm on the Ocotillo Fault. All triggered slips in the Yuha Desert area occurred along preexisting faults, whether previously recognized or not.

California↗

USGS2010

Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault

It has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (California, United States), but the average interseismic interval is only ~100 yr. If the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic, rather than random or clustered, the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Unfortunately, robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records. Here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground-rupturing earthquakes from Wrightwood, California. We show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a Poisson distribution and is not clustered, leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi-periodic. The observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record. The results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Only four intervals (15%) from the record are longer than the present open interval, highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault.

California↗

USGS2009

Photomosaics and logs of trenches on the San Andreas Fault near Coachella, California

The Coachella paleoseismic site is located on the San Andreas Fault along the northeast edge of the Coachella Valley in southern California east of Dillon Road and south of Avenue 44. Three benched trenches, a total of more than 950 m, were excavated across the fault zone as part of an Alquist-Priolo fault investigation study. These trenches exposed a thick section of latest Holocene lacustrine, fluvial, and shoreline deposits. Only the central and eastern trenches exposed faulting so we confined our investigations to those two trenches. In the central trench, we photographed and logged in detail both walls of about 70 m of the trench where it spanned several zones of complex faulting which form a 15-m-wide depression. After carefully cleaning the trench walls, we put up a 1- by 0.5-m string- and nail-grid. We photographed each 1- by 0.5-m panel individually and then photologged features directly on these unrectified photos. The photos were digitally rectified later to remove distortion caused by irregularities in the trench walls and to correct the slight distortion introduced by the camera lens. The rectified photos were spliced together to make photomosaics of the trench walls. Most of the field linework and descriptions were then transferred to the rectified photomosaics. For the eastern trench, we took a set of overview photographs of the full length (about 200 m) of each wall. These photographs were taken from the top of the trench towards the opposite wall. Because the photographs were taken at a downward angle, there is significant distortion. We logged directly on these photos in the field, recording significant contacts, primarily between lacustrine and subaerial deposits, along with descriptions. For this report, we spliced together these unrectified overview photos and transfered field linework and some descriptions. For both trenches, contacts and lithologhic descriptions of stratigraphic units, faults and carbon sample locations are indicated on the photomosaics. Lacustrine deposits are tinted to better show deformation across the fault zones. Evidence for six paleoearthquakes rated as “probable” is indicated with red stars that contain the sequential event number (1 is most recent event). Evidence for two additional “possible” paleoearthquakes is indicated with blue stars. The sedimentary deposits contain abundant dateable material which includes detrital charcoal, lenses of organic material formed in-situ, and shells. Two organic fractions, humic acids and acid-alkali-acid-pretreated (AAA), were dated for 13 of 15 samples taken from organic layers and both dates are shown for these samples on the photomosaics and tables 1 and 2. All radiocarbon dates are in 14 C years B.P. (considered to be A.D. 1950). Horizontal distance is measured along the trenches from the southwest ends of the logged exposures (marked as 0 m), and depth is measured from the highest points on the ground surface within the logged exposures. Bench locations are indicated by white lines and gaps in the photomosaics. Note that faults and contacts that are somewhat oblique to the trench walls occasionally appear disconnected owing to the approximately 1 m width of the benches.

California↗

USGS2008

California fault parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Recurrence interval and event age data for Type A faults

This appendix summarizes available recurrence interval, event age, and timing of most recent event data for Type A faults considered in the Earthquake Rate Model 2 (ERM 2) and used in the ERM 2 Appendix C analysis as well as Appendix N (time-dependent probabilities). These data have been compiled into an Excel workbook named Appendix B A-fault event ages_recurrence_V5.0 (herein referred to as the Appendix B workbook). For convenience, the Appendix B workbook is attached to the end of this document as a series of tables. The tables within the Appendix B workbook include site locations, event ages, and recurrence data, and in some cases, the interval of time between earthquakes is also reported. The Appendix B workbook is organized as individual worksheets, with each worksheet named by fault and paleoseismic site. Each worksheet contains the site location in latitude and longitude, as well as information on event ages, and a summary of recurrence data. Because the data has been compiled from different sources with different presentation styles, descriptions of the contents of each worksheet within the Appendix B spreadsheet are summarized.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Overview of the Southern San Andreas Fault Model

This appendix summarizes the data and methodology used to generate the source model for the southern San Andreas fault. It is organized into three sections, 1) a section by section review of the geological data in the format of past Working Groups, 2) an overview of the rupture model, and 3) a manuscript by Biasi and Weldon (in review Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America) that describes the correlation methodology that was used to help develop the ?geologic insight? model. The goal of the Biasi and Weldon methodology is to quantify the insight that went into developing all A faults; as such it is in concept consistent with all other A faults but applied in a more quantitative way. The most rapidly slipping fault and the only known source of M~8 earthquakes in southern California is the San Andreas fault. As such it plays a special role in the seismic hazard of California, and has received special attention in the current Working Group. The underlying philosophy of the current Working Group is to model the recurrence behavior of large, rapidly slipping faults like the San Andreas from observed data on the size, distribution and timing of past earthquakes with as few assumptions about underlying recurrence behavior as possible. In addition, we wish to carry the uncertainties in the data and the range of reasonable extrapolations from the data to the final model. To accomplish this for the Southern San Andreas fault we have developed an objective method to combine all of the observations of size, timing, and distribution of past earthquakes into a comprehensive set of earthquake scenarios that each represent a possible history of earthquakes for the past ~1400 years. The scenarios are then ranked according to their overall consistency with the data and then the frequencies of all of the ruptures permitted by the current Working Group?s segmentation model are calculated. We also present 30-yr conditional probabilities by segment and compare to previous results. A distinctive aspect of the current model is that the probability is higher at both ends of the fault and that the ends have a much greater fraction of smaller events. There is a significant difference in the likelihood of large (M 7.7-8.0) earthquakes along the fault from north to south, with large 1857-like events common on the northern half of the southern San Andreas fault but relatively few M 7.7-8.0 expected on the southern half.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

Summary of geologic data and development of A Priori Rupture Models for the Elsinore, San Jacinto, and Garlock faults

This appendix to the WGCEP Earthquake Rate Model 2 summarizes geologic data and documents the development of the rupture models for the Elsinore, San Jacinto, and Garlock faults. For the summary of available geologic data, the documentation is organized by fault and fault segment and includes a summary of slip rates, event timing and recurrence, slip-per-event, and historical seismicity for each segment. This information is compiled from the published literature as well as newer studies that have not yet been published. For the unpublished data, we either are familiar, having visited the paleoseismic sites, or participated in the data collection, or we have solicited the principal investigators at each site for their latest results. While these unpublished results are preliminary, we have chosen to include them because the results were considered in development of the rupture models and it is unlikely that the sites will be formally published before the WGCEP Earthquake Rate Model is finalized. The second part of this document describes the construction of the rupture models used in the WGCEP Earthquake Rate Model 2, and the rationale that went into the construction of these models, with a summary of what types of data were considered when the rupture models were created.

Open-File Report↗