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R.S. Stein

Publications and source records attributed to R.S. Stein.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS1998

Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6.9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities

The Kobe earthquake struck at the edge of the densely populated Osaka-Kyoto corridor in southwest Japan. We investigate how the earthquake transferred stress to nearby faults, altering their proximity to failure and thus changing earthquake probabilities. We find that relative to the pre-Kobe seismicity, Kobe aftershocks were concentrated in regions of calculated Coulomb stress increase and less common in regions of stress decrease. We quantify this relationship by forming the spatial correlation between the seismicity rate change and the Coulomb stress change. The correlation is significant for stress changes greater than 0.2–1.0 bars (0.02–0.1 MPa), and the nonlinear dependence of seismicity rate change on stress change is compatible with a state- and rate-dependent formulation for earthquake occurrence. We extend this analysis to future mainshocks by resolving the stress changes on major faults within 100 km of Kobe and calculating the change in probability caused by these stress changes. Transient effects of the stress changes are incorporated by the state-dependent constitutive relation, which amplifies the permanent stress changes during the aftershock period. Earthquake probability framed in this manner is highly time-dependent, much more so than is assumed in current practice. Because the probabilities depend on several poorly known parameters of the major faults, we estimate uncertainties of the probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. This enables us to include uncertainties on the elapsed time since the last earthquake, the repeat time and its variability, and the period of aftershock decay. We estimate that a calculated 3-bar (0.3-MPa) stress increase on the eastern section of the Arima-Takatsuki Tectonic Line (ATTL) near Kyoto causes fivefold increase in the 30-year probability of a subsequent large earthquake near Kyoto; a 2-bar (0.2-MPa) stress decrease on the western section of the ATTL results in a reduction in probability by a factor of 140 to 2000. The probability of a M w = 6.9 earthquake within 50 km of Osaka during 1997–2007 is estimated to have risen from 5–6% before the Kobe earthquake to 7–11% afterward; during 1997–2027, it is estimated to have risen from 14–16% before Kobe to 16–22%.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1998

Two-way coupling between Vesuvius eruptions and southern Apennine earthquakes, Italy, by elastic stress transfer

During the past 1000 years, eruptions of Vesuvius have often been accompanied by large earthquakes in the Apennines 50–60 km to the northeast. Statistical investigations had shown that earthquakes often preceded eruptions, typically by less than a decade, but did not provide a physical explanation for the correlation. Here, we explore elastic stress interaction between earthquakes and eruptions under the hypothesis that small stress changes can promote events when the Apennine normal faults and the Vesuvius magma body are close to failure. We show that earthquakes can promote eruptions by compressing the magma body at depth and opening suitably oriented near-surface conduits. Voiding the magma body in turns brings these same normal faults closer to Coulomb failure, promoting earthquakes. Such a coupling is strongest if the magma reservoir is a dike oriented normal to the regional extension axis, parallel to the Apennines, and the near-surface conduits and fissures are oriented normal to the Apennines. This preferred orientation suggests that the eruptions issuing from such fissures should be most closely linked in time to Apennine earthquakes. Large Apennine earthquakes since 1400 are calculated to have transferred more stress to Vesuvius than all but the largest eruptions have transferred to Apennine faults, which may explain why earthquakes more commonly lead than follow eruptions. A two-way coupling may thus link earthquakes and Vesuvius eruptions along a 100-km-long set of faults. We test the statistical significance of the earthquake-eruption correlation in the two-way coupling zone, and find a correlation significant at the 95% confidence level.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

The 1954 Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley earthquakes: A triggered normal faulting sequence

In 1954, four earthquakes of M > 6.0 occurred within a 30 km radius in a period of six months. The Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley earthquakes are among the largest to have been recorded geodetically in the Basin and Range province. The Fairview Peak earthquake (M = 7.2, December 12, 1954) followed two events in the Rainbow Mountains ( M = 6.2, July 6, and M = 6.5, August 24, 1954) by 6 months. Four minutes later the Dixie Valley fault ruptured ( M = 6.7, December 12, 1954). The changes in static stresses caused by the events are calculated using the Coulomb-Navier failure criterion and assuming uniform slip on rectangular dislocations embedded in an elastic half-space. Coulomb stress changes are resolved on optimally oriented faults and on each of the faults that ruptured in the chain of events. These calculations show that each earthquake in the Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley sequence was preceded by a static stress change that encouraged failure. The magnitude of the stress increases transferred from one earthquake to another ranged from 0.01 MPa (0.1 bar) to over 0.1 MPa (1 bar). Stresses were reduced by up to 0.1 MPa over most of the Rainbow Mountain-Fairview Peak area as a result of the earthquake sequence.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

Geometry of the 1954 Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley earthquake sequence from a joint inversion of leveling and triangulation data

In 1954, four earthquakes greater than M s = 6.0 occurred within a 30-km radius and in a period of 6 months. Elevation and angle changes calculated from repeated leveling and triangulation surveys which span the coseismic period provide constraints on the fault geometries and coseismic slip of the faults which were activated. The quality of the coseismic geodetic data is assessed. Corrections are applied to the leveling data for subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal in the Fallon area, and a rod miscalibration error of 150 ± 30 ppm is isolated in leveling surveys made in 1967. The leveling and triangulation observations are then simultaneously inverted using the single value decomposition (SVD) inversion method to determine fault geometries and coseismic slip. Using SVD, it is possible to determine on which faults slip is resolvable given the data distribution. The faults are found to dip between 50° and 80° and extend to depths of 5 to 14 km. The geodetically derived slip values are generally equal to, or greater than, the maximum observed displacement along the surface scarps. Where slip is resolvable the geodetic data indicates the 1954 sequence contained a significant component of right-lateral slip. This is consistent with the N15°W trending shear zone which geodetic surveys have detected in western Nevada.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1996

The 1992 M=7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake: Coseismic deformation at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust

We invert geodetic measurements of coseismic surface displacements to determine a dislocation model for the April 25, 1992, M = 7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake. The orientation of the model slip vector, which nearly parallels North America-Juan de Fuca relative plate convergence, and the location and orientation of the model fault relative to the offshore Cascadia megathrust, suggest that the 1992 Cape Mendocino earthquake is the first well-recorded event to relieve strain associated with the Cascadia subduction zone. We use data from three geodetic techniques: (1) the horizontal and vertical displacements of 13 monuments surveyed with the Global Positioning System, corrected for observed horizontal interseismic strain accumulation, (2) 88 section-elevation differences between leveling monuments, and (3) the uplift of 12 coastal sites observed from the die-off of intertidal marine organisms. Maximum observed displacements are 0.4 m of horizontal movement and 1.5 m of uplift along the coast. We use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate an optimal uniform slip rectangular fault geometry and its uncertainties. The optimal model using all the data resolves 4.9 m of slip on a 14 by 15 km fault that dips 28° SE. The fault extends from 1.5 to 8.7 km in depth and the main-shock hypocenter is close to the downdip projection of the fault. The shallowly dipping fault plane is consistent with the observed aftershock locations, and the estimated geodetic moment is 3.1 × 10 19 N m, 70% of the seismic moment. Other models that exclude leveling data collected in 1935 and 1942 are more consistent with seismological estimates of the fault geometry. If the earthquake is characteristic for this segment, the estimated horizontal slip vector compared with plate convergence rates suggests a recurrence interval of 140 years, with a 95% confidence range of 100–670 years. The coseismic uplift occurred in a region that also has high Quaternary uplift rates determined from marine terrace studies. If repeated ruptures of this southernmost segment of the Cascadia megathrust are responsible for the Quaternary uplift, a comparison of the coseismic uplift with coastal uplift rates suggests a recurrence interval of 200–400 years. Thus comparing horizontal and vertical coseismic to long-term deformation suggests a recurrence interval of about 100–300 years for M = 7 events at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS1994

Stress triggering of the 1994 M = 6.7 Northridge, California, earthquake by its predecessors

A model of stress transfer implies that earthquakes in 1933 and 1952 increased the Coulomb stress toward failure at the site of the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. The 1971 earthquake in turn raised stress and produced aftershocks at the site of the 1987 Whittier Narrows and 1994 Northridge ruptures. The Northridge main shock raised stress in areas where its aftershocks and surface faulting occurred. Together, the earthquakes with moment magnitude M ≥ 6 near Los Angeles since 1933 have stressed parts of the Oak Ridge, Sierra Madre, Santa Monica Mountains, Elysian Park, and Newport-Inglewood faults by more than 1 bar. Although too small to cause earthquakes, these stress changes can trigger events if the crust is already near failure or advance future earthquake occurrence if it is not.

California↗
USGS1992

Change in failure stress on the southern San Andreas fault system caused by the 1992 magnitude = 7.4 Landers earthquake

The 28 June Landers earthquake brought the San Andreas fault significantly closer to failure near San Bernardino, a site that has not sustained a large shock since 1812. Stress also increased on the San Jacinto fault near San Bernardino and on the San Andreas fault southeast of Palm Springs. Unless creep or moderate earthquakes relieve these stress changes, the next great earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault is likely to be advanced by one to two decades. In contrast, stress on the San Andreas north of Los Angeles dropped, potentially delaying the next great earthquake there by 2 to 10 years.

California↗
USGS1984

Seismic potential revealed by surface folding: 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake

The 2 May 1983 Coalinga, California, earthquake (magnitude 6.5) failed to rupture through surface deposits and, instead, elastically folded the top few kilometers of the crust. The subsurface rate of fault slip and the earthquake repeat time are estimated from seismic, geodetic, and geologic data. Three larger earthquakes (up to magnitude 7.5) during the past 20 years are also shown to have struck on reverse faults concealed beneath active folds.

California↗
USGS1983

Correlation of changes in gravity, elevation, and strain in southern California

Measurements made once or twice a year from 1977 through 1982 show large correlated changes in gravity, elevation, and strain in several southern California networks. Precise gravity surveys indicate changes of as much as 25 microgals between surveys 6 months apart. Repeated surveys show that annual elevation changes as large as 100 millimeters occur along baselines 40 to 100 kilometers long. Laser-ranging surveys reveal coherent changes in areal strain of 1 to 2 parts per million occurred over much of southern California during 1978 and 1979. Although the precision of these measuring systems has been questioned, the rather good agreement among them suggests that the observed changes reflect true crustal deformation.

California↗
USGS1979

Initiation and development of the southern California uplift along its northern margin

Analysis of three first-order leveling lines that traverse the White Wolf fault (site of the 1952 M = 7.7 earthquake), each resurveyed nine times between 1926 and 1974, reveals probable preseismic tilting, major coseismic movements, and a spatial association between these movements and the subsequently recognized southern California uplift. In examining the vertical control record, we have both searched for evidence of systematic errors and excluded from consideration portions of the lines contaminated by subsurface fluid and gas extraction. Movements have been referred to an invariant datum based on the 1926 position of tidal BM 8 in San Pedro, corrected for subsequent eustatic sea-level change. An 8 μrad up-to-the-north preseismic tilt (6 cm/7.5 km) was apparently recorded on two adjacent line segments within 10 km of the 1952 epicenter between 1942 and 1947. It is possible, however, that this tilt was in part caused by extraction-induced subsidence at one of the six releveled benchmarks. Data also show evidence of episodic tilts that are not earthquake related. At the junction of the Garlock and San Andreas faults, for example, an ≥5 μrad up-to-the-north tilt (7.2 cm/≤16 km) took place between Lebec and Grapevine within three months during 1964. Comparison of the 1947 and 1953 surveys, which includes the coseismic interval, shows that the SW-fault end (nearest the epicenter) and the central fault reach sustained four times the uplift recorded at the NE end of the fault (+72 cm SW, +53 cm Central, +16 cm NE). A regional postseismic uplift of 4 cm extended ≥25 km to either side of the fault after the main event, from 1953 to 1956. An interval of relative quiescence followed at least through 1959, in which the elevation change did not exceed ±3 cm. The detailed pattern of aseismic uplift demonstrates that movement proceeded in space—time pulses: one half of the uplift at the SW-fault end and extending southward occurred between 1959 and 1961, one half of the uplift at the NE-fault end and extending eastward occurred between 1961 and 1965, while the central fault reach sustained successive pulses of subsidence, uplift, and collapse (−4 cm, 1953–1960; +7 cm, 1960–1965; −2 cm, 1965–1970). In addition, the number of aftershocks concentrated near the fault ends increased in the NE relative to the SW from 1952 to 1974. These observations suggest that the aseismic uplift may have migrated northeastward from 1959 to 1965 at an approximate rate of 7–16 km/yr. Evidence for a mechanical coupling between the earthquake and the subsequent aseismic uplift is equivocal. At both fault ends, the major NWbounding flexure or tilted front of the southern California uplift is spatially coincident with the coseismic flexure that preceded it. In addition, the postulated migration of vertical deformation is similar to the 1952 seismic event in which the rupture initiated at the SW end of the fault and then propagated to the NE-fault end. However, the spatial distribution of aseismic uplift, nearly identical at both fault ends and to the south and east, and near zero in the central fault reach, is distinctly different from the nonuniform and localized coseismic deformation.

California↗