Geology topics
R.L. Baum
Publications and source records attributed to R.L. Baum.
Parallelization of the TRIGRS model for rainfall-induced landslides using the message passing interface
We describe a parallel implementation of TRIGRS, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model for the timing and distribution of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. We have parallelized the four time-demanding execution modes of TRIGRS, namely both the saturated and unsaturated model with finite and infinite soil depth options, within the Message Passing Interface framework. In addition to new features of the code, we outline details of the parallel implementation and show the performance gain with respect to the serial code. Results are obtained both on commercial hardware and on a high-performance multi-node machine, showing the different limits of applicability of the new code. We also discuss the implications for the application of the model on large-scale areas and as a tool for real-time landslide hazard monitoring.
Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probablistic approach
Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are deterministic. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the existing models is the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of shallow rainfall-induced landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a stochastic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. The range of variation and the mean value of the parameters can be determined by the usual methods used for preparing the TRIGRS input parameters. The outputs of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, i.e. the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas, respectively. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions.
Prototype landslide hazard map of the conterminous United States
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Basal-topographic control of stationary ponds on a continuously moving landslide
The Slumgullion landslide in the San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado has been moving for at least the last few hundred years and has multiple ponds on its surface. We have studied eight ponds during 30 trips to the landslide between July 1998 and July 2007. During each trip, we have made observations on the variability in pond locations and water levels, taken ground-based photographs to document pond water with respect to moving landslide material and vegetation, conducted Global Positioning System surveys of the elevations of water levels and mapped pond sediments on the landslide surface. Additionally, we have used stereo aerial photographs taken in October 1939, October 1940 and July 2000 to measure topographic profiles of the eight pond locations, as well as a longitudinal profile along the approximate centerline of the landslide, to examine topographic changes over a 60- to 61-year period of time. Results from field observations, analyses of photographs, mapping and measurements indicate that all pond locations have remained spatially stationary for 60-300 years while landslide material moves through these locations. Water levels during the observation period were sensitive to changes in the local, spring-fed, stream network, and to periodic filling of pond locations by sediment from floods, hyperconcentrated flows, mud flows and debris flows. For pond locations to remain stationary, the locations must mimic depressions along the basal surface of the landslide. The existence of such depressions indicates that the topography of the basal landslide surface is irregular. These results suggest that, for translational landslides that have moved distances larger than the dimensions of the largest basal topographic irregularities (about 200 m at Slumgullion), landslide surface morphology can be used as a guide to the morphology of the basal slip surface. Because basal slip surface morphology can affect landslide stability, kinematic models and stability analyses of translational landslides should attempt to incorporate irregular basal surface topography. Additional implications for moving landslides where basal topography controls surface morphology include the following: dateable sediments or organic material from basal layers of stationary ponds will yield ages that are younger than the date of landslide initiation, and it is probable that other landslide surface features such as faults, streams, springs and sinks are also controlled by basal topography. The longitudinal topographic profile indicated that the upper part of the Slumgullion landslide was depleted at a mean vertical lowering rate of 5.6 cm/yr between 1939 and 2000, while the toe advanced at an average rate of 1.5 m/yr during the same period. Therefore, during this 61-year period, neither the depletion of material at the head of the landslide nor continued growth of the landslide toe has decreased the overall movement rate of the landslide. Continued depletion of the upper part of the landslide, and growth of the toe, should eventually result in stabilization of the landslide. Copyright ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Landsliding in partially saturated materials
Rainfall‐induced landslides are pervasive in hillslope environments around the world and among the most costly and deadly natural hazards. However, capturing their occurrence with scientific instrumentation in a natural setting is extremely rare. The prevailing thinking on landslide initiation, particularly for those landslides that occur under intense precipitation, is that the failure surface is saturated and has positive pore‐water pressures acting on it. Most analytic methods used for landslide hazard assessment are based on the above perception and assume that the failure surface is located beneath a water table. By monitoring the pore water and soil suction response to rainfall, we observed shallow landslide occurrence under partially saturated conditions for the first time in a natural setting. We show that the partially saturated shallow landslide at this site is predictable using measured soil suction and water content and a novel unified effective stress concept for partially saturated earth materials.
Transient deterministic shallow landslide modeling: Requirements for susceptibility and hazard assessments in a GIS framework
Application of transient deterministic shallow landslide models over broad regions for hazard and susceptibility assessments requires information on rainfall, topography and the distribution and properties of hillside materials. We survey techniques for generating the spatial and temporal input data for such models and present an example using a transient deterministic model that combines an analytic solution to assess the pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite-slope stability calculation. Pore-pressures and factors of safety are computed on a cell-by-cell basis and can be displayed or manipulated in a grid-based GIS. Input data are high-resolution (1.8??m) topographic information derived from LiDAR data and simple descriptions of initial pore-pressure distribution and boundary conditions for a study area north of Seattle, Washington. Rainfall information is taken from a previously defined empirical rainfall intensity-duration threshold and material strength and hydraulic properties were measured both in the field and laboratory. Results are tested by comparison with a shallow landslide inventory. Comparison of results with those from static infinite-slope stability analyses assuming fixed water-table heights shows that the spatial prediction of shallow landslide susceptibility is improved using the transient analyses; moreover, results can be depicted in terms of the rainfall intensity and duration known to trigger shallow landslides in the study area.
Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy
We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.
Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA
Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.
Rainfall characteristics for shallow landsliding in Seattle, Washington, USA
Shallow landsliding in the Seattle, Washington, area, has caused the occasional loss of human life and millions of dollars in damage to property. The effective management of the hazzard requires an understanding of the rainfall conditions that result in landslides. We present an empirical approach to quantify the antecedent moisture conditions and rainstorm intensity and duration that have triggered shallow landsliding using 25 years of hourly rainfull data and a complementary record of landslide occurrence. Our approach combines a simple water balance to estimate the antecedent moisture conditions of hillslope materials and a rainfall intensity-duration threshold to identify periods when shallow landsliding can be expected. The water balance is calibrated with field-monitoring data and combined with the rainfall intensity-duration threshold using a decision tree. Results are cast in terms of a hypothetical landslide warning system. Two widespread landslide events are correctly identified by the warning scheme; however, it is less accurate for more isolated landsliding. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A model for spatially and temporally distributed shallow landslide initiation by rainfall infiltration
We describe a model for regional initiation of shallow landslides based on an approximate analytic solution to Richards equation combined with an infinite-slope calculation. The model applied over digital topography computes pressure heads and factors of safety as functions of depth for geographic information system (GIS) grid cells at any time during and after rainfall events. An example is presented that simulates the progressive development of shallow landslides on steep slopes during a rainfall event. This example shows how this modeling provides insights into transient rainfall-caused processes that trigger shallow slope instability and consequent regionally distributed debris-flow events. Specifically, we infer that the spatial pattern of instability is primarily controlled by topography, while intensity and duration of rainfall, and the subsequent pore-pressure responses control the temporal pattern of instability. ?? 2003 Millpress.
Finite-element analysis of the Woodway Landslide, Washington
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Map showing recent and historic landslide activity on coastal bluffs of Puget Sound between Shilshole Bay and Everett, Washington
Many landslides occurred on the coastal bluffs between Seattle and Everett, Washington during the winters of 1996 and 1997. Shallow earth slides and debris flows were the most common, but a few deep-seated rotational earth slides also occurred. The landslides caused significant property damage and interfered with rail traffic; future landslides in the area pose significant hazards to property and public safety. Field observations indicate that ground-water seepage, runoff concentration, and dumping at the tops of the bluffs all contributed to instability of the bluffs. Most landslides in the study area occurred in colluvium, residuum, and landslide deposits derived from the Vashon Drift, particularly the advance outwash. In the northern part of the area, colluvium derived from the Pleistocene Whidbey Formation was also involved in shallow landslides. Comparison of recent activity with historic records in the southern part of the map area indicates that landslides tend to occur in many of the same areas as previous landslides.
Assessment of landslide hazards in Kaluanui and Maakua gulches, Oahu, Hawaii, following the 9 May 1999 Sacred Falls landslide
One of the injured hikers later died of injuries received in the landslide. Governor Ben Cayetano of Hawaii ordered that the park be closed due to concern about continuing landslide hazard near the falls. Subsequently, Bill Meyer, District Chief for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Resources Division in Honolulu contacted Tim Johns, Chair of the Board of Land and Natural Resources of the Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR) and offered assistance in assessing slope stability in the park. Mr. Johns accepted the offer, and two landslide specialists from the USGS Geologic Hazards Team in Golden Colorado were sent to the site. On Friday, 14 May 1999, we visited the Sacred Falls landslide site with Glenn Bauer, Ed Sakoda, and Gary Moniz of DLNR. The ground investigation involved inspecting the impact area, estimating the volume of the deposit, and gathering data to help reconstruct the event. On Monday, 17 May 1999, we conducted an aerial reconnaissance of Kaluanui Gulch (Sacred Falls State Park) and Maakua Gulch in a commercial helicopter provided by DLNR. We inspected the source and path of movement of the Sacred Falls landslide of 9 May and reconnoitered the full length of both valleys to get an overview of ongoing landslide hazards there. This report gives our observations and conclusions about the Sacred Falls landslide, broadly assesses the ongoing hazard in the Kaluanui and Maakua Gulches, and suggests methods for more detailed assessment of landslide hazards here and along other trails in state parks on Oahu. Observations and conclusions in this report are based on a very brief investigation and thus are preliminary in nature.
Surface deformation as a guide to kinematics and three-dimensional shape of slow-moving, clay-rich landslides, Honolulu, Hawaii
Two slow-moving landslides in Honolulu, Hawaii, were the subject of photogrammetric measurements, field mapping, and subsurface investigation to learn whether surface observations can yield useful information consistent with results of subsurface investigation. Mapping focused on structural damage and on surface features such as scarps, shears, and toes. The x-y-z positions of photo-identifiable points were obtained from aerial photographs taken at three different times. The measurements were intended to learn if the shape of the landslide failure surface can be determined from systematic surface observations and whether surface observations about deformation are consistent with photogrammetrically-obtained displacement gradients. Field and aerial photographic measurements were evaluated to identify the boundaries of the landslides, distinguish areas of incipient landslide enlargement, and identify zones of active and passive failure in the landslides. Data reported here apply mainly to the Alani-Paty landslide, a translational, earth-block landslide that damaged property in a 3.4-ha residential area. It began moving in the 1970s and displacement through 1991 totaled 4 m. Thickness, determined from borehole data, ranges from about 7 to 10 m; and the slope of the ground surface averages about 9°. Field evidence of deformation indicated areas of potential landslide enlargement outside the well-formed landslide boundaries. Displacement gradients obtained photogrammetrically and deformation mapping both identified similar zones of active failure (longitudinal stretching) and passive failure (longitudinal shortening) within the body of the landslide. Surface displacement on the landslide is approximately parallel to the broadly concave slip surface.
Real-time monitoring of bluff stability at Woodway, Washington, USA
On January 15, 1997, a landslide of approximately 100,000-m3 from a coastal bluff swept five cars of a freight train into Puget Sound at Woodway, Washington, USA, 25 km north of downtown Seattle. The landslide resulted from failure of a sequence of dense sands and hard silts of glacial and non-glacial origin, including the Lawton Clay, a hard, jointed clayey silt that rarely fails in natural slopes. Joints controlled ground-water seepage through the silt and break-up of the landslide mass. During September of 1997, the US Geological Survey began measuring rainfall, ground-water pressures, and slope movement at the bluff where the landslide occurred. Data are collected every 15 minutes and updated hourly on the World-Wide-Web. Pore pressures observed from September 1997 to February 1998 generally were low and pressures near the bluff face, in the upper few meters of the hard clayey silt, increased gradually.
Geologic map of slump-block deposits in part of the Grand Mesa area, Delta and Mesa counties, Colorado
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Geology, hydrology and mechanics of the Alani-Paty Landslide, Manoa Valley, Oahu, Hawaii
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