Geology topics

R.J. Weldon

Publications and source records attributed to R.J. Weldon.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

A reevaluation of the Pallett Creek earthquake chronology based on new AMS radiocarbon dates, San Andreas fault, California

The Pallett Creek paleoseismic record occupies a keystone position in most attempts to develop rupture histories for the southern San Andreas fault. Previous estimates of earthquake ages at Pallett Creek were determined by decay counting radiocarbon methods. That method requires large samples which can lead to unaccounted sources of uncertainty in radiocarbon ages because of the heterogeneous composition of organic layers. In contrast, accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates may be obtained from small samples that have known carbon sources and also allow for a more complete sampling of the section. We present 65 new AMS radiocarbon dates that span nine ground‐rupturing earthquakes at Pallett Creek. Overall, the AMS dates are similar to and reveal no dramatic bias in the conventional dates. For many layers, however, individual charcoal samples were younger than the conventional dates, leading to earthquake ages that are overall slightly younger than previously reported. New earthquake ages are determined by Bayesian refinement of the layer ages based on stratigraphic ordering and sedimentological constraints. The new chronology is more regular than previously published records in large part due to new samples constraining the age of event R. The closed interval from event C to 1857 has a mean recurrence of 135 years ( σ = 83.2 years) and a quasiperiodic coefficient of variation (COV) of 0.61. We show that the new dates and resultant earthquake chronology have a stronger effect on COV than the specific membership of this long series and dating precision improvements from sedimentation rates.

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USGS2007

Paleoearthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault, Wrightwood, California, 3000 to 1500 B.C.: A new method for evaluating paleoseismic evidence and earthquake horizons

We present evidence of 11–14 earthquakes that occurred between 3000 and 1500 b.c. on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site. Earthquake evidence is presented in a novel form in which we rank (high, moderate, poor, or low) the quality of all evidence of ground deformation, which are called “event indicators.” Event indicator quality reflects our confidence that the morphologic and sedimentologic evidence can be attributable to a ground-deforming earthquake and that the earthquake horizon is accurately identified by the morphology of the feature. In four vertical meters of section exposed in ten trenches, we document 316 event indicators attributable to 32 separate stratigraphic horizons. Each stratigraphic horizon is evaluated based on the sum of rank (Rs), maximum rank (Rm), average rank (Ra), number of observations (Obs), and sum of higher-quality event indicators (Rs >1 ). Of the 32 stratigraphic horizons, 14 contain 83% of the event indicators and are qualified based on the number and quality of event indicators; the remaining 18 do not have satisfactory evidence for further consideration. Eleven of the 14 stratigraphic horizons have sufficient number and quality of event indicators to be qualified as “probable” to “very likely” earthquakes; the remaining three stratigraphic horizons are associated with somewhat ambiguous features and are qualified as “possible” earthquakes. Although no single measurement defines an obvious threshold for designation as an earthquake horizon, Rs, Rm, and Rs >1 correlate best with the interpreted earthquake quality. Earthquake age distributions are determined from radiocarbon ages of peat samples using a Bayesian approach to layer dating. The average recurrence interval for the 10 consecutive and highest-quality earthquakes is 111 (93–131) years and individual intervals are ±50% of the average. With comparison with the previously published 14–15 earthquake record between a.d. 500 and present, we find no evidence to suggest significant variations in the average recurrence rate at Wrightwood during the past 5000 years.

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USGS2002

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

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USGS1993

A speculative history of the San Andreas fault in the central Transverse Ranges, California

It is generally accepted that the San Andreas fault formed between 4 and 5 Ma and that rocks west of it are now part of the Pacific plate, moving northwest relative to North America at 5 to 6 cm/yr. This model is inconsistent with the geologic record in the central Transverse Ranges. Right-lateral shear began in the vicinity of the San Andreas fault system in early Miocene time. The San Andreas fault system in the central Transverse Ranges has since evolved through three major phases; this development has led to a generally simpler, more throughgoing main trace. Slip rates on the San Andreas system were about 1 cm/yr in the Miocene, increasing to their current level of 3.5 cm/yr between 4 and 5 Ma. The modern San Andreas fault still only accounts for just over half the current relative plate rate and retains kinematic complexities inherited from its earliest geometry. The Early San Andreas transform system originated during early Miocene time in one of three transtensive zones that lay interior to the continent and east of the locus of transform motion between the Pacific and North American plates. The current three-fold division of motion in the plate boundary between the San Andreas fault, a coastal system, and an eastern California system dates to this time, as does the “anomalous” trend of the San Andreas fault through the Transverse Ranges. Basins and volcanic centers associated with this transtensive zone became dismembered as faults became integrated into a throughgoing system. Early motion led to juxtaposition of different rocks across faults now recognized as part of the Early San Andreas transform system, and to the development of sedimentary provincialism associated with uplift along the fault zone. Middle Miocene basins, including the Caliente, Cajon, Crowder, and Santa Ana basins that had previously received most of their sediments from sources far to the east, began to reflect local Transverse Ranges provenance. At least 100 km of slip is associated with the Early San Andreas transform system during early and middle Miocene time. Slip across the geometrically complex late Miocene San Gabriel transform system—which includes the San Gabriel, Cajon Valley, and early Punchbowl faults—produced uplift in the proto-Transverse Ranges at a postulated restraining bend in the fault system. Compressional structures associated with this restraining bend include the Squaw Peak and Liebre Mountain thrusts, related east-striking late Miocene reverse faults and folds, and, perhaps, northeast-striking left-lateral faults in the San Gabriel Mountains. Narrow fault-controlled basins formed during this period, including the Ridge basin, Devil’s Punchbowl basin, Mill Creek basin, and part of the Santa Ana Sandstone basin. Offset of structures and relief associated with the proto-Transverse Ranges provides the best evidence for late Miocene restorations of the modern San Andreas fault. As much as 60 km of offset is associated with the late Miocene San Gabriel transform system. Between 4 and 5 Ma, the modern San Andreas fault became the dominant member of the plate boundary system, cutting through the proto-Transverse Ranges and connecting more northerly striking traces to the north and south. The slip rate across the San Andreas fault system accelerated from 1 cm/yr to its current slip rate of 3.5 cm/yr prior to 4 Ma. The Pliocene rocks in the central Transverse Ranges do not contain evidence for relief as great as that of late Miocene or Quaternary time. The Pliocene trace of the modern San Andreas fault may have temporarily “solved” the geometric problem that led to late Miocene uplift. About 90 km of right-lateral displacement occurred on the modern San Andreas fault during Pliocene time. During Quaternary time new regions of localized vertical deformation developed in the Transverse Ranges, apparently as the result of new geometric problems within the Pliocene solution to the restraining geometry of the fault system. Left-lateral motion on east-striking faults, probably due to a northward increase in Basin and Range extension, kinked the San Andreas fault at both ends of the Transverse Ranges, producing regions of extreme shortening and uplift. The development of young right-lateral faults through the Peninsular Ranges, including the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults, also contributed to renewed uplift in the Transverse Ranges. Sixty kilometers of right-lateral slip occurred across the San Andreas fault zone during Quaternary time.

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USGS1993

A 100-year average recurrence interval for the San Andreas fault at Wrightwood, California

Evidence for five large earthquakes during the past five centuries along the San Andreas fault zone 70 kilometers northeast of Los Angeles, California, indicates that the average recurrence interval and the temporal variability are significantly smaller than previously thought. Rapid sedimentation during the past 5000 years in a 150-meter-wide structural depression has produced a greater than 21-meter-thick sequence of debris flow and stream deposits interbedded with more than 50 datable peat layers. Fault scarps, colluvial wedges, fissure infills, upward termination of ruptures, and tilted and folded deposits above listric faults provide evidence for large earthquakes that occurred in A.D. 1857, 1812, and about 1700, 1610, and 1470.

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