Geology topics

R.B. Harris

Publications and source records attributed to R.B. Harris.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2011

Grizzly bear population vital rates and trend in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem, Montana

We estimated grizzly bear ( Ursus arctos ) population vital rates and trend for the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE), Montana, between 2004 and 2009 by following radio-collared females and observing their fate and reproductive performance. Our estimates of dependent cub and yearling survival were 0.612 (95% CI = 0.300–0.818) and 0.682 (95% CI = 0.258–0.898). Our estimates of subadult and adult female survival were 0.852 (95% CI = 0.628–0.951) and 0.952 (95% CI = 0.892–0.980). From visual observations, we estimated a mean litter size of 2.00 cubs/litter. Accounting for cub mortality prior to the first observations of litters in spring, our adjusted mean litter size was 2.27 cubs/litter. We estimated the probabilities of females transitioning from one reproductive state to another between years. Using the stable state probability of 0.322 (95% CI = 0.262–0.382) for females with cub litters, our adjusted fecundity estimate ( m x ) was 0.367 (95% CI = 0.273–0.461). Using our derived rates, we estimated that the population grew at a mean annual rate of approximately 3% (λ = 1.0306, 95% CI = 0.928–1.102), and 71.5% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations produced estimates of λ > 1.0. Our results indicate an increasing population trend of grizzly bears in the NCDE. Coupled with concurrent studies of population size, we estimate that over 1,000 grizzly bears reside in and adjacent to this recovery area. We suggest that monitoring of population trend and other vital rates using radioed females be continued.

Montana↗

USGS2011

Study design and sampling intensity for demographic analyses of bear populations

The rate of population change through time (??) is a fundamental element of a wildlife population's conservation status, yet estimating it with acceptable precision for bears is difficult. For studies that follow known (usually marked) bears, ?? can be estimated during some defined time by applying either life-table or matrix projection methods to estimates of individual vital rates. Usually however, confidence intervals surrounding the estimate are broader than one would like. Using an estimator suggested by Doak et al. (2005), we explored the precision to be expected in ?? from demographic analyses of typical grizzly (Ursus arctos) and American black (U. americanus) bear data sets. We also evaluated some trade-offs among vital rates in sampling strategies. Confidence intervals around ?? were more sensitive to adding to the duration of a short (e.g., 3 yrs) than a long (e.g., 10 yrs) study, and more sensitive to adding additional bears to studies with small (e.g., 10 adult females/yr) than large (e.g., 30 adult females/yr) sample sizes. Confidence intervals of ?? projected using process-only variance of vital rates were only slightly smaller than those projected using total variances of vital rates. Under sampling constraints typical of most bear studies, it may be more efficient to invest additional resources into monitoring recruitment and juvenile survival rates of females already a part of the study, than to simply increase the sample size of study females. ?? 2011 International Association for Bear Research and Management.

Ursus↗

USGS2007

Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

Grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AIC c model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic analysis.

Wyoming, Montana, Idaho↗

USGS1988

Applications of satellite telemetry to wildlife research and management in Alaska

Since 1984, the Alaska Fish and Wildlife Research Center, in cooperation with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and several other agencies, has used the Argos Data Collection and Location System to address wildlife research and management problems in Alaska and other parts of North America. The use of satellite telemetry has overcome some of the logistical problems of working in remote areas in an arctic environment, where harsh weather, darkness, worker safety considerations, extensive movements by some species, and high costs of locating study animals often result in small incomplete data sets. As of September 1988, 241 satellite transmitters (PPTs) have been deployed on large mammals, including 109 on polar bears in the Bering, Beaufort and Chukchi seas; 74 on caribou in northern Alaska and northwestern Canada; 22 on brown bears in northern Alaska and Kodiak Island, Alaska; 12 on muskoxen in northeastern Alaska and Greenland; 7 on wolves in northern Alaska; 7 on walrus in the Bering and Chuckchi seas; 4 on mule deer in Idaho; 2 on elk in Wyoming; 2 on moose in southcentral Alaska; and 2 on Dall sheep int the Brooks Range of northern Alaska. The Argos DCLS has provided more than 19,000 and 66,000 locations for polar bears and caribou, respectively, and has been used to document the international ranges of these species and to address specific management questions in a cost-effective manner. The precision of locations provided by the Argos DCLS was examined using transmitters placed on the ground or on buildings and compared to the precision from that prior to deployment, presumably because of the proximity of the antenna to the animal's body. The mean error of locations for PTTs on captive animals was 954 m(+or- 1324 SD; median -553 m; n -330). Sensors for determining ambient temperature, short- and long-term indices of animal activity immersion of transmitters in saltwater, and dive depths, were developed and tested. The long-term activity index indicated animal mortality and was correlated with movement patterns for the three species we examined ; caribou, moose and mountain sheep. The short-term index was calibrated to specific activities for captive caribou, moose, mule deer and elk, and was used to determine qualitative trends in activity budgets for free-ranging caribou.

Alaska↗