Geology topics

R. Lopaka Lee

Publications and source records attributed to R. Lopaka Lee.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Seeing is believing: Livestream video monitoring of Hawaiian eruptions

Livestream video has become a crucial tool for volcano monitoring in recent years, building upon the use of webcam snapshots that have been common for the past two decades. In Hawaii, livestream video was first tested in 2018, and today, livestream video is a vital tool for the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and partner agencies (National Park Service and Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense) as well as the public. Its role in volcano monitoring has been highlighted by the 2024–present summit eruption of Kīlauea—where three livestream video feeds provide a continuous and easily accessible view of the activity for the public. Here, we describe the methodology and equipment used for the livestream cameras in Hawaii and discuss the benefits and challenges of livestream video monitoring. We show how the nature of livestream video has fundamentally changed volcano monitoring, providing an “up-close” view to the world that was previously limited to observatory field staff. The livestream video feeds, coupled with the historical summit lava fountains, have provided an unprecedented level of engagement with the public, both local and worldwide.

Hawaii↗

USGS2026

Detecting volcanic deformation in Hawaii using trustworthy multimodal deep learning techniques

Monitoring volcanoes involves a variety of data sources and methods to maintain complete continuity of coverage. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) are commonly used complementary methods to assess the deformation state of a volcano as magma migrates beneath the surface. The amount of data these methods produce, however, is growing rapidly beyond human analysis capabilities and is becoming difficult to manage. Here, we create a novel multimodal deep learning framework to ingest InSAR and GNSS data simultaneously and classify the deformation state of the system. We apply this methodology to Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i given its wealth of InSAR and GNSS data as well as its propensity to deform on multiple timescales. Our model performs with high accuracy and is able to identify both slow and fast deformation from 2015 to 2023. The multimodal nature of our model also allows us to identify the presence of atmospheric noise in InSAR data. Furthermore, we employ explainability algorithms to show that our model is making decisions for the right reasons and to connect complex black-box machine learning mappings to current real-world geodetic interpretations of the Mauna Loa magmatic system.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Real-time lava flow forecasting during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption response

On November 27, 2022, Mauna Loa (Hawai‘i) erupted for the first time in 38 years, initially producing lava flows that covered the floor of its summit caldera, Moku‘āweoweo. Over the first 12 h following the summit eruption, four main fissures opened on Mauna Loa’s Northeast Rift Zone, with “fissure 3” quickly becoming the dominant source of lava flows. For the next 12 days, fissure 3 produced a 19-km-long lava flow to the north, crossing the Mauna Loa Weather Observatory access road and coming within 2.8 km of inundating the Daniel K. Inouye Highway (Saddle Road). Within 40 min of fissure 3 opening, inundation modeling efforts had begun. For the duration of the eruption, the computational fluid dynamics model Lava2d was run in real time, using flow front locations and other field observations to make sequential forecast improvements, eventually producing a set of models which accurately predicted the routing and arrival times of lava from fissure 3. These models were used to inform timing estimates of possible future inundation of the Saddle Road. As the eruption progressed, almost 4000 Lava2d models were made using high-performance computing resources, providing critical information on uncertainty in multi-week forecasts. To our knowledge, this was the first ever real-time physics-based ensemble lava flow modeling and forecasting effort. Here, we present a chronology of these real-time efforts, focusing on the successes and limitations of this approach.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Explosive activity on Kilauea’s Lower East Rift Zone fueled by a volatile-rich, dacitic melt

Magmas with matrix glass compositions ranging from basalt to dacite erupted from a series of 24 fissures in the first two weeks of the 2018 Lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano. Eruption styles ranged from low spattering and fountaining to strombolian activity. Major element trajectories in matrix glasses and melt inclusions hosted by olivine, pyroxene and plagioclase are consistent with variable amounts of fractional crystallization, with incompatible elements (e.g., Cl, F, H 2 O) becoming enriched by 4-5 times as melt MgO contents evolve from 6 to 0.5 wt%. The high viscosity and high H 2 O contents (∼2 wt%) of the dacitic melts erupting at Fissure 17 account for the explosive Strombolian behavior exhibited by this fissure, in contrast to the low fountaining and spattering observed at fissures erupting basaltic to basaltic-andesite melts. Saturation pressures calculated from melt inclusions CO 2 -H 2 O contents indicate that the magma reservoir(s) supplying these fissures was located at ∼2-3 km depth, which is in agreement with the depth of a dacitic magma body intercepted during drilling in 2005 (∼2.5 km) and a seismically-imaged low Vp/Vs anomaly (∼2 km depth). Nb/Y ratios in erupted products are similar to lavas erupted between 1955-1960, indicating that melts were stored and underwent variable amounts of crystallization in the LERZ for >60 years before being remobilized by a dike intrusion in 2018. We demonstrate that extensive fractional crystallization generates viscous and volatile-rich magma with potential for hazardous explosive eruptions, which may be lurking undetected at many ocean island volcanoes.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Trace elements in olivine fingerprint the source of 2018 magmas and shed light on explosive-effusive eruption cycles at Kīlauea Volcano

Understanding magma genesis and the evolution of intensive parameters (temperature, pressure, composition, degree of melting) in the mantle source of highly active volcanic systems is crucial for interpreting magma supply changes over time and recognizing cyclic behavior to anticipate future volcanic behavior. Major and trace elements in olivine are commonly used to study variations in mantle lithologies and melting conditions (e.g., temperature, pressure, oxygen fugacity) affecting the mantle over time. Here, we track the temporal evolution of primary melts through the most recent cycle of explosive and effusive eruptions at Kīlauea (Hawai‘i), which spans the last ∼500 years. We report major and trace elements in olivine from the last explosive period (∼1500 – early 1820’s Keanakāko‘i Tephra) and the most recent decade of the current effusive period (2018 LERZ, 2015–2018 Pu‘u‘ō‘ō, 2008–2018 lava lake and 2020 eruption in Halema‘uma‘u). Scandium concentrations in olivine allow characterizing changes in mantle source between 1500 and 2018, and suggest that the recent (2015–2018) magma feeding the Pu‘u‘ō‘ō cone did not significantly interact with the magma that erupted in the LERZ in 2018. The evolution of olivine and melt compositions over the past 500 years is not easily reconcilable with variations in mantle potential temperature, pressure of mantle melt pooling and storage, or oxygen fugacity. Instead, Sc, Mn, and Co concentrations and Ni/Mg ratio in high forsterite (Fo >87) olivine advocate for an increase in the proportion of clinopyroxene in the mantle source associated with a slightly higher degree of partial melting from 1500 to 2018. Changes in primitive melt compositions and degrees of mantle melting may well modulate magma supply to the crust and formation-replenishment of steady or ephemeral summit reservoirs, and thereby control transitions between explosive and effusive periods at Kīlauea. Analyzing trace elements in olivine at Kīlauea and elsewhere could therefore provide important clues on subtle changes occurring at the mantle level that might herald changes in volcanic behavior.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

The petrologic and degassing behavior of sulfur and other magmatic volatiles from the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi: Melt concentrations, magma storage depths, and magma recycling

Kīlauea Volcano’s 2018 lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption produced exceptionally high lava effusion rates and record-setting SO 2 emissions. The eruption involved a diverse range of magmas, including primitive basalts sourced from Kīlauea’s summit reservoirs. We analyzed LERZ matrix glasses, melt inclusions, and host minerals to identify melt volatile contents and magma storage depths. The LERZ glasses and melt inclusions span nearly the entire compositional range previously recognized at Kīlauea. Melt inclusions in Fo 86-89 olivine from the main eruptive vent (fissure 8) underwent 70–170 °C cooling during transport in LERZ carrier melts, causing extensive post-entrapment crystallization and sulfide precipitation. Many of these melt inclusions have low sulfur (400–900 ppm) even after correction for sulfide formation. CO 2 and H 2 O vapor saturation pressures indicate shallow melt inclusion trapping depths (1–5 km), consistent with formation within Kīlauea’s Halemaʻumaʻu and South Caldera reservoirs. Many of these inclusions also have degassed δ 34 S values (− 1.5 to − 0.5‰). Collectively, these results indicate that some primitive melts experienced near-surface degassing before being trapped into melt inclusions. We propose that decades-to-centuries of repeated lava lake activity and lava drain-back during eruptions (e.g., 1959 Kīlauea Iki) recycled substantial volumes of degassed magma into Kīlauea’s shallow reservoir system. Degassing and magma recycling from the 2008–2018 Halemaʻumaʻu lava lake likely reduced the volatile contents of LERZ fissure 8 magmas, resulting in lower fountain heights compared to many prior Kīlauea eruptions. The eruption’s extreme SO 2 emissions were due to high lava effusion rates rather than particularly volatile-rich melts.

Hawaii↗

USGS2021

Groundwater dynamics at Kīlauea Volcano and vicinity, Hawaiʻi

Kīlauea Volcano, on the Island of Hawaiʻi, is surrounded and permeated by active groundwater systems that interact dynamically with the volcanic system. A generalized conceptual model of Hawaiian hydrogeology includes high-level dike-impounded groundwater, very permeable perched and basal aquifers, and a transition (mixing) zone between freshwater and saltwater. Most high-level groundwater is associated with the low-permeability intrusive complexes that underlie volcanic rift zones and calderas and also act to compartmentalize the groundwater system. Hydrogeologic studies of Kīlauea in recent decades, accompanied by deep research drilling, have shown that high-level groundwater is more widespread than once understood, that permeability decreases dramatically at depth, particularly in rift zones, and that freshwater can occur at depths of as much as several kilometers below the local water table. Copious groundwater recharge causes near-surface conductive heat flow to be near zero over much of Kīlauea. Approximately 95 percent of groundwater discharge occurs offshore, accompanied by approximately 99 percent of the approximately 6,000 megawatts of heat supplied by magmatic intrusion. Here, we summarize current understanding of the groundwater system of Kīlauea Volcano and describe transient changes during the decade or more preceding the 2018 eruption sequence. The changes in groundwater chemistry and thermal structure beneath Kīlauea summit hold implications for volcanic-volatile transport and the potential for explosive volcanism. Between 2008 and 2018, the magma conduit beneath the lava lake likely created an adjacent zone of very hot rock that significantly delayed liquid groundwater inflow to the draining magma conduit. Sulfate concentrations in groundwater beneath Kīlauea summit, sampled at the National Science Foundation-funded drill hole 1.5 kilometers south-southwest of the lava lake, declined substantially between 2010 and present. This decline likely reflects, at least in part, the decreased effectiveness of volatile condensation and solution into groundwater (scrubbing). The vent opening in 2008 presumably focused volatile flux into the vicinity of the vent, and progressive drying of the surroundings further restricted interaction with the groundwater system. The decrease in sulfate concentrations in the drill hole between 2010 and 2018 likely reflects decreased effectiveness of scrubbing.

Hawaii↗

USGS2020

Monitoring network changes during the 2018 Kīlauea Volcano eruption

In the summer of 2018, Kīlauea Volcano underwent one of its most significant eruptions in the past few hundred years. The volcano’s summit and East Rift Zone magma system partially drained, resulting in a series of occasionally explosive partial caldera collapses, and widespread lava flows in the lower East Rift Zone. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) operates a robust permanent monitoring network of about 250 stations, recording a variety of real‐time data streams: seismic (short‐period, broadband, strong‐motion), infrasound, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), tilt, camera, laser rangefinder, and gas geochemistry. During the eruption, HVO staff quickly established 35 new temporary monitoring stations, to better constrain evolving volcanic hazards. The partial collapses of the caldera threatened to disrupt important telemetry links in the HVO monitoring network, and a major effort was undertaken in the midst of the eruption crisis to reroute radio telemetry and maintain continuity of data flow. In the process, a new data center was established in Hilo, to mitigate a long‐standing potential single point of failure at the HVO facility. Over the course of the eruption from May through August, lava, ashfall, wildfire, and cliff collapse destroyed or disabled 36 stations. Thousands of earthquakes damaged the main HVO facility at Uēkahuna Bluff, causing staff to evacuate the building and relocate observatory operations in the midst of the eruption response, adding more complexity to the response effort. Throughout these events, the HVO team maintained the monitoring network, provided timely information to the public and emergency managers, and collected valuable scientific data to better understand Kīlauea Volcano.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

Direct measurements of copper speciation in basaltic glasses: Understanding the relative roles of sulfur and oxygen in copper complexation in melts

Micro-analytical determination of copper (Cu) speciation in natural magmatic glasses, equilibrated below the nickel – nickel oxide (NNO) buffer, reveals that two copper species are commonly stabilized in such basaltic melts. X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopic analysis of basaltic matrix glasses and melt inclusions (MI) from samples of mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB), and from Nyamuragira, Etna and Kīlauea volcanoes show that both Cu(I)-sulfide and Cu(I)-oxide species are stabilized. The proportion of each species correlates with the measured sulfur (S) abundance of the glass. In glasses with S abundances greater than ~1000 ppm, Cu(I)-sulfide species are dominant, whereas in glasses with S abundances between 500 and 1000 ppm, both species are found to coexist. The Cu(I)-oxide species dominate at S concentrations below 500 ppm. In 1 atm S-free experimental glasses of basaltic composition that we analyzed, only Cu(I)-oxide species are detectable, regardless of the oxygen fugacity (fO2), even at relatively high fO2 values well above the NNO buffer. Our results demonstrate that XAFS techniques are highly sensitive in measuring Cu speciation in reduced (below NNO) basaltic glasses and that both oxide and sulfide complexes can be stabilized. The relative proportion of these two species is highly dependent on the concentration of S in the melt, and thus the Cu speciation in natural melts changes as S is lost from the melt by low pressure degassing.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano

In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 km. A 4 May earthquake (M6.9) produced ~5 m of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 m3/s, eventually covering 35.5 km2. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M4.7-M5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent--about 0.8 km3. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

The tangled tale of Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption as told by geochemical monitoring

Changes in magma chemistry that affect eruptive behavior occur during many volcanic eruptions, but typical analytical techniques are too slow to contribute to hazard monitoring. We used rapid energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis to measure diagnostic elements in lava samples within a few hours of collection during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. The geochemical data provided important information for field crews and civil authorities in advance of changing hazards during the eruption. The appearance of hotter magma was recognized several days before the onset of voluminous eruptions of fast-moving flows that destroyed hundreds of homes. We identified, in near-real time, interactions between older, colder, stored magma – including the unexpected eruption of andesite – and hotter magma delivered during dike emplacement.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

Accurate predictions of microscale oxygen barometry in basaltic glasses using V K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy: A multivariate approach

Because magmatic oxygen fugacity ( f O2 ) exerts a primary control on the discrete vanadium (V) valence states that will exist in quenched melts, V valence proxies for f O2 , measured using X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES), can provide highly sensitive measurements of the redox conditions in basaltic melts. However, published calibrations for basaltic glasses primarily relate measured intensities of specific spectral features to V valence or oxygen fugacity. These models have not exploited information contained within the entire XANES spectrum, which also provide a measure of changes in V chemical state as a function of f O2 . Multivariate analysis (MVA) holds significant promise for the development of calibration models that employ the full XANES spectral range. In this study, new calibration models are developed using MVA partial least-squares (PLS) regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression to predict the f O2 of equilibration in glasses of basaltic composition directly. The models are then tested on a suite of natural glasses from mid-ocean ridge basalts and from Kilauea. The models relate the measured XANES spectral features directly to buffer-relative f O2 as the predicted variable, avoiding the need for an external measure of the V valence in the experimental glasses used to train the models. It is also shown that by predicting buffer-relative f O2 directly, these models also minimize temperature-relative uncertainties in the calibration. The calibration developed using the Lasso regression model, using a Lasso hyperparameter value of α = 0.0008, yields nickel-nickel oxide (NNO) relative f O2 predictions with a root-mean-square-error of ±0.33 log units. When applied to natural basaltic glasses, the V MVA calibration model generally yields predicted NNO-relative f O2 values that are within the analytical uncertainty of what is calculated using Fe XANES to predict Fe 3+ /ΣFe. When applied to samples of natural basaltic glass collected in 2014 from an active lava flow at Kilauea, a mean f O2 of NNO-1.15 ± 0.19 (1σ) is calculated, which is generally consistent with other published f O2 estimates for subaerial Kilauea lavas. When applied to a sample of pillow-rim basaltic glass dredged from the East Pacific Rise, calculated f O2 varies from NNO-2.67 (±0.33) to NNO-3.72 (±0.33) with distance from the quenched pillow rim. Fe oxybarometry in this sample provides an f O2 of NNO-2.54 ± 0.19 (1σ), which is in good agreement with that provided by the V oxybarometry within the uncertainties of the modeling. However, the data may indicate that V XANES oxybarometry has greater sensitivity to small changes in f O2 at these more reduced redox conditions than can be detected using Fe XANES.

Hawaii↗