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R. Burgmann

Publications and source records attributed to R. Burgmann.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Forecasting inundation of catastrophic landslides from precursory creep

Forecasting landslide inundation upon catastrophic failure is crucial for reducing casualties, yet it remains a long-standing challenge owing to the complex nature of landslides. Recent global studies indicate that catastrophic hillslope failures are commonly preceded by a period of precursory creep, motivating a novel scheme to foresee their hazard. Here, we showcase an approach to hindcast landslide inundation by linking satellite-captured precursory displacements to modeling of consequent granular-fluid flows. We present its application to the 2021 Chunchi, Ecuador landslide, which failed catastrophically and evolved into a mobile debris flow after four months of precursory creep, destroying 68 homes along its lengthy flow path. Underpinned by uncertainty quantification and in situ validations, we highlight the feasibility and potential of forecasting landslide inundation damage using observable precursors. This forecast approach is broadly applicable for flow hazards initiated from geomaterial failures.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Surface slip during large Owens Valley earthquakes

The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is the third largest known historical earthquake in California. Relatively sparse field data and a complex rupture trace, however, inhibited attempts to fully resolve the slip distribution and reconcile the total moment release. We present a new, comprehensive record of surface slip based on lidar and field investigation, documenting 162 new measurements of laterally and vertically displaced landforms for 1872 and prehistoric Owens Valley earthquakes. Our lidar analysis uses a newly developed analytical tool to measure fault slip based on cross‐correlation of sublinear topographic features and to produce a uniquely shaped probability density function (PDF) for each measurement. Stacking PDFs along strike to form cumulative offset probability distribution plots (COPDs) highlights common values corresponding to single and multiple‐event displacements. Lateral offsets for 1872 vary systematically from ∼1.0 to 6.0 m and average 3.3 ± 1.1 m (2σ). Vertical offsets are predominantly east‐down between ∼0.1 and 2.4 m, with a mean of 0.8 ± 0.5 m. The average lateral‐to‐vertical ratio compiled at specific sites is ∼6:1. Summing displacements across subparallel, overlapping rupture traces implies a maximum of 7–11 m and net average of 4.4 ± 1.5 m, corresponding to a geologic M w ∼7.5 for the 1872 event. We attribute progressively higher‐offset lateral COPD peaks at 7.1 ± 2.0 m, 12.8 ± 1.5 m, and 16.6 ± 1.4 m to three earlier large surface ruptures. Evaluating cumulative displacements in context with previously dated landforms in Owens Valley suggests relatively modest rates of fault slip, averaging between ∼0.6 and 1.6 mm/yr (1σ) over the late Quaternary.

Book↗
USGS2012

Tidal triggering of low frequency earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Implications for fault mechanics within the brittle-ductile transition

Studies of nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) have established the significant impact of small stress perturbations on NVT generation. Here we analyze the influence of the solid earth and ocean tides on a catalog of ∼550,000 low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) distributed along a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield. LFE families are identified in the NVT data on the basis of waveform similarity and are thought to represent small, effectively co-located earthquakes occurring on brittle asperities on an otherwise aseismic fault at depths of 16 to 30 km. We calculate the sensitivity of each of these 88 LFE families to the tidally induced right-lateral shear stress (RLSS), fault-normal stress (FNS), and their time derivatives and use the hypocentral locations of each family to map the spatial variability of this sensitivity. LFE occurrence is most strongly modulated by fluctuations in shear stress, with the majority of families demonstrating a correlation with RLSS at the 99% confidence level or above. Producing the observed LFE rate modulation in response to shear stress perturbations requires low effective stress in the LFE source region. There are substantial lateral and vertical variations in tidal shear stress sensitivity, which we interpret to reflect spatial variation in source region properties, such as friction and pore fluid pressure. Additionally, we find that highly episodic, shallow LFE families are generally less correlated with tidal stresses than their deeper, continuously active counterparts. The majority of families have weaker or insignificant correlation with positive (tensile) FNS. Two groups of families demonstrate a stronger correlation with fault-normal tension to the north and with compression to the south of Parkfield. The families that correlate with fault-normal clamping coincide with a releasing right bend in the surface fault trace and the LFE locations, suggesting that the San Andreas remains localized and contiguous down to near the base of the crust. The deep families that have high sensitivity to both shear and tensile normal stress perturbations may be indicative of an increase in effective fault contact area with depth. Synthesizing our observations with those of other LFE-hosting localities will help to develop a comprehensive understanding of transient fault slip below the “seismogenic zone” by providing constraints on parameters in physical models of slow slip and LFEs.

California↗
USGS2011

Lower crustal relaxation beneath the Tibetan Plateau and Qaidam Basin following the 2001 Kokoxili earthquake

In 2001 November a magnitude 7.8 earthquake ruptured a 400 km long portion of the Kunlun fault, northeastern Tibet. In this study, we analyse over five years of post-seismic geodetic data and interpret the observed surface deformation in terms of stress relaxation in the thick Tibetan lower crust. We model GPS time-series (first year) and InSAR line of sight measurements (years two to five) and infer that the most likely mechanism of post-seismic stress relaxation is time-dependent distributed creep of viscoelastic material in the lower crust. Since a single relaxation time is not sufficient to model the observed deformation, viscous flow is modelled by a lower crustal Burgers rheology, which has two material relaxation times. The optimum model has a transient viscosity 9 × 10 17 Pa s, steady-state viscosity 1 × 10 19 Pa s and a ratio of long term to Maxwell shear modulus of 2:3. This model gives a good fit to GPS stations south of the Kunlun Fault, while displacements at stations north of the fault are over-predicted. We attribute this asymmetry in the GPS residual to lateral heterogeneity in rheological structure across the southern margin of the Qaidam Basin, with thinner crust/higher viscosities beneath the basin than beneath the Tibetan Plateau. Deep afterslip localized in a shear zone beneath the fault rupture gives a reasonable match to the observed InSAR data, but the slip model does not fit the earlier GPS data well. We conclude that while some localized afterslip likely occurred during the early post-seismic phase, the bulk of the observed deformation signal is due to viscous flow in the lower crust. To investigate regional variability in rheological structure, we also analyse post-seismic displacements following the 1997 Manyi earthquake that occurred 250 km west of the Kokoxili rupture. We find that viscoelastic properties are the same as for the Kokoxili area except for the transient viscosity, which is 5 × 10 17 Pa s. The viscosities estimated for the Manyi and Kokoxili areas are consistent with constraints obtained from other earthquakes in the northwest and south central parts of the Tibetan Plateau.

Tibetan Plateau and Qaidam Basin↗
USGS2009

Slip maxima at fault junctions and rupturing of barriers during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

The disastrous 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China took the local population as well as scientists by surprise. Although the Longmen Shan fault zonewhich includes the fault segments along which this earthquake nucleatedwas well known, geologic and geodetic data indicate relatively low (<3 mm yr -1 ) deformation rates. Here we invert Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data to infer fault geometry and slip distribution associated with the earthquake. Our analysis shows that the geometry of the fault changes along its length: in the southwest, the fault plane dips moderately to the northwest but becomes nearly vertical in the northeast. Associated with this is a change in the motion along the fault from predominantly thrusting to strike-slip. Peak slip along the fault occurs at the intersections of fault segments located near the towns of Yingxiu, Beichuan and Nanba, where fatalities and damage were concentrated. We suggest that these locations represent barriers that failed in a single event, enabling the rupture to cascade through several fault segments and cause a major moment magnitude (M w ) 7.9 earthquake. Using coseismic slip distribution and geodetic and geological slip rates, we estimate that the failure of barriers and rupture along multiple segments takes place approximately once in 4,000 years. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2009

Precise location of San Andreas Fault tremors near Cholame, California using seismometer clusters: Slip on the deep extension of the fault?

We examine a 24-hour period of active San Andreas Fault (SAF) tremor and show that this tremor is largely composed of repeated similar events. Utilizing this similarity, we locate the subset of the tremor with waveforms similar to an identified low frequency earthquake (LFE) "master template," located using P and S wave arrivals to be ???26 km deep. To compensate for low signal-to-noise, we estimate event-pair differential times at "clusters" of nearby stations rather than at single stations. We find that the locations form a near-linear structure in map view, striking parallel to the SAF and near the surface trace. Therefore, we suggest that at least a portion of the tremor occurs on the deep extension of the fault, likely reflecting shear slip, similar to subduction zone tremor. If so, the SAF may extend to the base of the crust, ???10 km below the deepest regular earthquakes on the fault. ?? 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2009

The postseismic response to the 2002 M 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake: Constraints from InSAR 2003-2005

InSAR is particularly sensitive to vertical displacements, which can be important in distinguishing between mechanisms responsible for the postseismic response to large earthquakes (afterslip, viscoelastic relaxation). We produce maps of the surface displacements resulting from the postseismic response to the 2002 Denali Fault earthquake, using data from the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite from the periods summer 2003, summer 2004 and summer 2005. A peak-to-trough signal of amplitude 4 cm in the satellite line of sight was observed between summer 2003 and summer 2004. By the period between summer 2004 and summer 2005, the displacement rate had dropped below the threshold required for observation with InSAR over a single year. The InSAR observations show that the principal postseismic relaxation process acted at a depth of ∼50 km, equivalent to the top of the mantle. However, the observations are still incapable of distinguishing between distributed (viscoelastic relaxation) and localized (afterslip) deformation. The imposed coseismic stresses are highest in the lower crust and, assuming a Maxwell rheology, a viscosity ratio of at least 5 between lower crust and upper mantle is required to explain the contrast in behaviour. The lowest misfits are produced by mixed models of viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle and shallow afterslip in the upper crust. Profiles perpendicular to the fault show significant asymmetry, which is consistent with differences in rheological structure across the fault.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2008

Aseismic slip and fault-normal strain along the central creeping section of the San Andreas fault

We use GPS data to measure the aseismic slip along the central San Andreas fault (CSAF) and the deformation across adjacent faults. Comparison of EDM and GPS data sets implies that, except for small-scale transients, the fault motion has been steady over the last 40 years. We add 42 new GPS, velocities along the CSAF to constrain the regional strain distribution. Shear strain rates are less than 0.083 ?? 0.010 ??strain/yr adjacent to the creeping SAF, with 1-4.5 mm/yr of contraction across the Coast Ranges. Dislocation modeling of the data gives a deep, long-term slip rate of 31-35 mm/yr and a shallow (0-12 km) creep rate of 28 mm/yr along the central portion of the CSAF, consistent with surface creep measurements. The lower shallow slip rate may be due to the effect of partial locking along the CSAF or reflect reduced creep rates late in the earthquake cycle of the adjoining SAF rupture zones. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2008

Effect of 3-D viscoelastic structure on post-seismic relaxation from the 2004 M = 9.2 Sumatra earthquake

The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake profoundly altered the state of stress in a large volume surrounding the ???1400 km long rupture. Induced mantle flow fields and coupled surface deformation are sensitive to the 3-D rheology structure. To predict the post-seismic motions from this earthquake, relaxation of a 3-D spherical viscoelastic earth model is simulated using the theory of coupled normal modes. The quasi-static deformation basis set and solution on the 3-D model is constructed using: a spherically stratified viscoelastic earth model with a linear stress-strain relation; an aspherical perturbation in viscoelastic structure; a 'static'mode basis set consisting of Earth's spheroidal and toroidal free oscillations; a "viscoelastic" mode basis set; and interaction kernels that describe the coupling among viscoelastic and static modes. Application to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake illustrates the profound modification of the post-seismic flow field at depth by a slab structure and similarly large effects on the near-field post-seismic deformation field at Earth's surface. Comparison with post-seismic GPS observations illustrates the extent to which viscoelastic relaxation contributes to the regional post-seismic deformation. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2008 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2007

Coseismic slip distributions of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 28 March 2005 Nias earthquakes from GPS static offsets

Static offsets produced by the 26 December 2004 M ???9 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake as measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) reveal a large amount of slip along the entire ???1300 km-long rupture. Most seismic slip inversions place little slip on the Andaman segment. whereas both near-field and far-field GPS offsets demand large slip on the Andaman segment. We compile available datasets of the static offset to render a more detailed picture of the static-slip distribution. We construct geodetic offsets such that postearthquake positions of continuous GPS sites are reckoned to a time 1 day after the earthquake and campaign GPS sites are similarly corrected for postseismic motions. The newly revised slip distribution (Mw 9.22) reveals substantial segmentation of slip along the Andaman Islands, with the southern quarter slipping ???15 m in unison with the adjacent Nicobar and northern Sumatran segments of length ???700 km. We infer a small excess of geodetic moment relative to the seismic moment. A similar compilation of GPS offsets from the 28 March 2005 Nias earthquake is well explained with dip slip averaging several meters (Mw = 8.66) distributed primarily at depths greater than 20 km.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Frictional strength heterogeneity and surface heat flow: Implications for the strength of the creeping San Andreas fault

Heat flow measurements along much of the San Andreas fault (SAF) constrain the apparent coefficient of friction (??app) of the fault to <0.2, much lower than laboratory-derived friction values for most geologic materials. However, heat flow data are sparse near the creeping section of the SAF, a frictional "asperity" where the fault slips almost exclusively by aseismic creep. We test the hypothesis that the creeping section has a substantially higher or lower ?? app than adjacent sections of the SAF. We use numerical models to explore the effects of faults with spatially and temporally heterogeneous frictional strength on the spatial distribution of surface heat flow. Heat flow from finite length asperities is uniformly lower than predicted by assuming an infinitely long fault. Over geologic time, lateral offset from strike-slip faulting produces heat flow patterns that are asymmetric across the fault and along strike. We explore a range of asperity sizes, slip rates, and displacement histories for comparing predicted spatial patterns of heat flow with existing measurements. Models with ??app ??? 0.1 fit the data best. For most scenarios, heat flow anomalies from a frictional asperity with ??app > 0.2 should be detectable even with the sparse existing observations, implying that ??app for the creeping section is as low as the surrounding SAF. Because the creeping section does not slip in large earthquakes, the mechanism controlling its weakness is not related to dynamic processes resulting from high slip rate earthquake ruptures. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2006

Stress changes along the Sunda trench following the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 28 March 2005 Nias earthquakes

The 26 December 2004 Mw = 9.2 and 28 March 2005 Mw = 8.7 earthquakes on the Sumatra megathrust altered the state of stress over a large region surrounding the earthquakes. We evaluate the stress changes associated with coseismic and postseismic deformation following these two large events, focusing on postseismic deformation that is driven by viscoelastic relaxation of a low-viscosity asthenosphere. Under Coulomb failure stress (CFS) theory, the December 2004 event increased CFS on the future hypocentral zone of the March 2005 event by about 0.25 bar, with little or no contribution from viscous relaxation. Coseismic stresses around the rupture zones of the 1797 and 1833 Sunda trench events are negligible, but postseismic stress perturbations since December 2004 are predicted to result in CFS increases of 0.1 to 0.2 bar around these rupture zones between 2 and 8 years after the December 2004 event. These are considerable stress perturbations given that the 1797 and 1833 rupture zones are likely approaching the end of a complete seismic cycle. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2006

Post-seismic relaxation following the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on a compressible self-gravitating Earth

he Mw ??? 9.0 2004 December 26 Sumatra-Andaman and Mw =8.7 2005 March 28 Nias earthquakes, which collectively ruptured approximately 1800 km of the Andaman and Sunda subduction zones, are expected to be followed by vigorous viscoelastic relaxation involving both the upper and lower mantle. Because of these large spatial dimensions it is desirable to fully account for gravitational coupling effects in the relaxation process. We present a stable method of computing relaxation of a spherically-stratified, compressible and self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth following an impulsive moment release event. The solution is cast in terms of a spherical harmonic expansion of viscoelastic normal modes. For simple layered viscoelastic models, which include a low-viscosity oceanic asthenosphere, we predict substantial post-seismic effects over a region several 100s of km wide surrounding the eastern Indian Ocean. We compare observed GPS time-series from ten regional sites (mostly in Thailand and Indonesia), beginning in 2004 December, with synthetic time-series that include the coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 2004 December 26 and 2005 March 28 earthquakes. A viscosity structure involving a biviscous (Burgers body) rheology in the asthenosphere explains the pattern and amplitude of post-seismic offsets remarkably well. ?? 2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2006 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2006

Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake from space-geodetic data

We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data jointly with campaign and continuous global positioning system (GPS) data for slip in the coseismic and postseismic periods of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. The InSAR dataset consists of eight interferograms from data collected by the Envisat and Radarsat satellites spanning the time of the earthquake and variable amounts of the postseismic period. The two datasets complement each other, with the InSAR providing dense sampling of motion in the range direction of the satellite and the GPS providing more sparse, but three-dimensional measurements of ground motion. The model assumes exponential decay of the postseismic slip with a decay time constant of 0.087 years, determined from time series modeling of continuous GPS and creepmeter data. We find a geodetic moment magnitude of M 6.2 for a 1-day coseismic model and Mw 6.1 for the entire postseismic period. The coseismic rupture occurred mainly in two slip asperities; one near the hypocenter and the other 15-20 km north. Postseismic slip occurred on the shallow portions of the fault and near the rupture areas of two M 5.0 aftershocks. A comparison of the geodetic slip models with seismic moment estimates suggests that the coseismic moment release of the Parkfield earthquake is as little as 25% of the total. This underlines the importance of aseismic slip in the slip budget for the Parkfield segment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2005

Distribution of aseismic slip rate on the Hayward fault inferred from seismic and geodetic data

We solve for the slip rate distribution on the Hayward fault by performing a least squares inversion,of geodetic and seismic data sets. Our analysis focuses on the northern 60 km of the fault. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from 13 independent ERS interferograms are stacked to obtain range change rates from 1992 to 2000. Horizontal surface displacement rates at 141 bench marks are measured using GPS from 1994 to 2003. Surface creep observations and estimates of deep slip rates determined from characteristic repeating earthquake sequences are also incorporated in the inversion. The fault is discretized into 283 triangular dislocation elements that approximate the nonplanar attributes of the fault surface. South of the city of Hayward, a steeply, east dipping fault geometry accommodates the divergence of the surface trace and the microseismicity at depth. The inferred slip rate distribution is consistent with a fault that creeps aseismically at a rate of ???5 mm/yr to a depth of 4-6 km. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data require an aseismic slip rate that approaches the geologic slip rate on the northernmost fault segment beneath Point Pinole, although the InSAR data might be complicated by a small dip-slip component at this location. A low slip rate patch of <1 mm/yr is inferred beneath San Leandro consistent with the source location of the 1868 earthquake. We calculate that the entire fault is accumulating a slip rate deficit equivalent to a Mw = 6.77 ?? 0.05 per century. However, this estimate of potential coseismic moment represents an upper bound because we do not know how much of the accumulated strain will be released through aseismic processes such as afterslip. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

Slicing up the San Francisco Bay Area: Block kinematics and fault slip rates from GPS-derived surface velocities

Observations of surface deformation allow us to determine the kinematics of faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. We present the Bay Area velocity unification (BA??VU??, "bay view"), a compilation of over 200 horizontal surface velocities computed from campaign-style and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 1993 to 2003. We interpret this interseismic velocity field using a three-dimensional block model to determine the relative contributions of block motion, elastic strain accumulation, and shallow aseismic creep. The total relative motion between the Pacific plate and the rigid Sierra Nevada/Great Valley (SNGV) microplate is 37.9 ?? 0.6 mm yr-1 directed toward N30.4??W ?? 0.8?? at San Francisco (??2??). Fault slip rates from our preferred model are typically within the error bounds of geologic estimates but provide a better fit to geodetic data (notable right-lateral slip rates in mm yr-1: San Gregorio fault, 2.4 ?? 1.0; West Napa fault, 4.0 ?? 3.0; zone of faulting along the eastern margin of the Coast Range, 5.4 ?? 1.0; and Mount Diablo thrust, 3.9 ?? 1.0 of reverse slip and 4.0 ?? 0.2 of right-lateral strike slip). Slip on the northern Calaveras is partitioned between both the West Napa and Concord/ Green Valley fault systems. The total convergence across the Bay Area is negligible. Poles of rotation for Bay Area blocks progress systematically from the North America-Pacific to North America-SNGV poles. The resulting present-day relative motion cannot explain the strike of most Bay Area faults, but fault strike does loosely correlate with inferred plate motions at the time each fault initiated. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2005

Geophysics: The size and duration of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake from far-field static offsets

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake produced static offsets at continuously operating GPS stations at distances of up to 4500 kilometers from the epicenter. We used these displacements to model the earthquake and include consideration of the Earth's shape and depth-varying rigidity. The results imply that the average slip was >5 meters along the full length of the rupture, including the ???650-kilometer-long Andaman segment. Comparison of the source derived from the far-field static offsets with seismically derived estimates suggests that 25 to 35% of the total moment release occurred at periods greater than 1 hour. Taking into consideration the strong dip dependence of moment estimates, the magnitude of the earthquake did not exceed Mw = 9.2.

Science↗