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R. Burgmann

Publications and source records attributed to R. Burgmann.

17 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2024

Forecasting inundation of catastrophic landslides from precursory creep

Forecasting landslide inundation upon catastrophic failure is crucial for reducing casualties, yet it remains a long-standing challenge owing to the complex nature of landslides. Recent global studies indicate that catastrophic hillslope failures are commonly preceded by a period of precursory creep, motivating a novel scheme to foresee their hazard. Here, we showcase an approach to hindcast landslide inundation by linking satellite-captured precursory displacements to modeling of consequent granular-fluid flows. We present its application to the 2021 Chunchi, Ecuador landslide, which failed catastrophically and evolved into a mobile debris flow after four months of precursory creep, destroying 68 homes along its lengthy flow path. Underpinned by uncertainty quantification and in situ validations, we highlight the feasibility and potential of forecasting landslide inundation damage using observable precursors. This forecast approach is broadly applicable for flow hazards initiated from geomaterial failures.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2017

Surface slip during large Owens Valley earthquakes

The 1872 Owens Valley earthquake is the third largest known historical earthquake in California. Relatively sparse field data and a complex rupture trace, however, inhibited attempts to fully resolve the slip distribution and reconcile the total moment release. We present a new, comprehensive record of surface slip based on lidar and field investigation, documenting 162 new measurements of laterally and vertically displaced landforms for 1872 and prehistoric Owens Valley earthquakes. Our lidar analysis uses a newly developed analytical tool to measure fault slip based on cross‐correlation of sublinear topographic features and to produce a uniquely shaped probability density function (PDF) for each measurement. Stacking PDFs along strike to form cumulative offset probability distribution plots (COPDs) highlights common values corresponding to single and multiple‐event displacements. Lateral offsets for 1872 vary systematically from ∼1.0 to 6.0 m and average 3.3 ± 1.1 m (2σ). Vertical offsets are predominantly east‐down between ∼0.1 and 2.4 m, with a mean of 0.8 ± 0.5 m. The average lateral‐to‐vertical ratio compiled at specific sites is ∼6:1. Summing displacements across subparallel, overlapping rupture traces implies a maximum of 7–11 m and net average of 4.4 ± 1.5 m, corresponding to a geologic M w ∼7.5 for the 1872 event. We attribute progressively higher‐offset lateral COPD peaks at 7.1 ± 2.0 m, 12.8 ± 1.5 m, and 16.6 ± 1.4 m to three earlier large surface ruptures. Evaluating cumulative displacements in context with previously dated landforms in Owens Valley suggests relatively modest rates of fault slip, averaging between ∼0.6 and 1.6 mm/yr (1σ) over the late Quaternary.

Book↗
USGS2012

Tidal triggering of low frequency earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Implications for fault mechanics within the brittle-ductile transition

Studies of nonvolcanic tremor (NVT) have established the significant impact of small stress perturbations on NVT generation. Here we analyze the influence of the solid earth and ocean tides on a catalog of ∼550,000 low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) distributed along a 150 km section of the San Andreas Fault centered at Parkfield. LFE families are identified in the NVT data on the basis of waveform similarity and are thought to represent small, effectively co-located earthquakes occurring on brittle asperities on an otherwise aseismic fault at depths of 16 to 30 km. We calculate the sensitivity of each of these 88 LFE families to the tidally induced right-lateral shear stress (RLSS), fault-normal stress (FNS), and their time derivatives and use the hypocentral locations of each family to map the spatial variability of this sensitivity. LFE occurrence is most strongly modulated by fluctuations in shear stress, with the majority of families demonstrating a correlation with RLSS at the 99% confidence level or above. Producing the observed LFE rate modulation in response to shear stress perturbations requires low effective stress in the LFE source region. There are substantial lateral and vertical variations in tidal shear stress sensitivity, which we interpret to reflect spatial variation in source region properties, such as friction and pore fluid pressure. Additionally, we find that highly episodic, shallow LFE families are generally less correlated with tidal stresses than their deeper, continuously active counterparts. The majority of families have weaker or insignificant correlation with positive (tensile) FNS. Two groups of families demonstrate a stronger correlation with fault-normal tension to the north and with compression to the south of Parkfield. The families that correlate with fault-normal clamping coincide with a releasing right bend in the surface fault trace and the LFE locations, suggesting that the San Andreas remains localized and contiguous down to near the base of the crust. The deep families that have high sensitivity to both shear and tensile normal stress perturbations may be indicative of an increase in effective fault contact area with depth. Synthesizing our observations with those of other LFE-hosting localities will help to develop a comprehensive understanding of transient fault slip below the “seismogenic zone” by providing constraints on parameters in physical models of slow slip and LFEs.

California↗
USGS2009

Slip maxima at fault junctions and rupturing of barriers during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

The disastrous 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China took the local population as well as scientists by surprise. Although the Longmen Shan fault zonewhich includes the fault segments along which this earthquake nucleatedwas well known, geologic and geodetic data indicate relatively low (<3 mm yr -1 ) deformation rates. Here we invert Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data to infer fault geometry and slip distribution associated with the earthquake. Our analysis shows that the geometry of the fault changes along its length: in the southwest, the fault plane dips moderately to the northwest but becomes nearly vertical in the northeast. Associated with this is a change in the motion along the fault from predominantly thrusting to strike-slip. Peak slip along the fault occurs at the intersections of fault segments located near the towns of Yingxiu, Beichuan and Nanba, where fatalities and damage were concentrated. We suggest that these locations represent barriers that failed in a single event, enabling the rupture to cascade through several fault segments and cause a major moment magnitude (M w ) 7.9 earthquake. Using coseismic slip distribution and geodetic and geological slip rates, we estimate that the failure of barriers and rupture along multiple segments takes place approximately once in 4,000 years. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Nature Geoscience↗
USGS2009

Precise location of San Andreas Fault tremors near Cholame, California using seismometer clusters: Slip on the deep extension of the fault?

We examine a 24-hour period of active San Andreas Fault (SAF) tremor and show that this tremor is largely composed of repeated similar events. Utilizing this similarity, we locate the subset of the tremor with waveforms similar to an identified low frequency earthquake (LFE) "master template," located using P and S wave arrivals to be ???26 km deep. To compensate for low signal-to-noise, we estimate event-pair differential times at "clusters" of nearby stations rather than at single stations. We find that the locations form a near-linear structure in map view, striking parallel to the SAF and near the surface trace. Therefore, we suggest that at least a portion of the tremor occurs on the deep extension of the fault, likely reflecting shear slip, similar to subduction zone tremor. If so, the SAF may extend to the base of the crust, ???10 km below the deepest regular earthquakes on the fault. ?? 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2008

Effect of 3-D viscoelastic structure on post-seismic relaxation from the 2004 M = 9.2 Sumatra earthquake

The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake profoundly altered the state of stress in a large volume surrounding the ???1400 km long rupture. Induced mantle flow fields and coupled surface deformation are sensitive to the 3-D rheology structure. To predict the post-seismic motions from this earthquake, relaxation of a 3-D spherical viscoelastic earth model is simulated using the theory of coupled normal modes. The quasi-static deformation basis set and solution on the 3-D model is constructed using: a spherically stratified viscoelastic earth model with a linear stress-strain relation; an aspherical perturbation in viscoelastic structure; a 'static'mode basis set consisting of Earth's spheroidal and toroidal free oscillations; a "viscoelastic" mode basis set; and interaction kernels that describe the coupling among viscoelastic and static modes. Application to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake illustrates the profound modification of the post-seismic flow field at depth by a slab structure and similarly large effects on the near-field post-seismic deformation field at Earth's surface. Comparison with post-seismic GPS observations illustrates the extent to which viscoelastic relaxation contributes to the regional post-seismic deformation. ?? Journal compilation ?? 2008 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2007

Coseismic slip distributions of the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 28 March 2005 Nias earthquakes from GPS static offsets

Static offsets produced by the 26 December 2004 M ???9 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake as measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) reveal a large amount of slip along the entire ???1300 km-long rupture. Most seismic slip inversions place little slip on the Andaman segment. whereas both near-field and far-field GPS offsets demand large slip on the Andaman segment. We compile available datasets of the static offset to render a more detailed picture of the static-slip distribution. We construct geodetic offsets such that postearthquake positions of continuous GPS sites are reckoned to a time 1 day after the earthquake and campaign GPS sites are similarly corrected for postseismic motions. The newly revised slip distribution (Mw 9.22) reveals substantial segmentation of slip along the Andaman Islands, with the southern quarter slipping ???15 m in unison with the adjacent Nicobar and northern Sumatran segments of length ???700 km. We infer a small excess of geodetic moment relative to the seismic moment. A similar compilation of GPS offsets from the 28 March 2005 Nias earthquake is well explained with dip slip averaging several meters (Mw = 8.66) distributed primarily at depths greater than 20 km.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2006

Stress changes along the Sunda trench following the 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman and 28 March 2005 Nias earthquakes

The 26 December 2004 Mw = 9.2 and 28 March 2005 Mw = 8.7 earthquakes on the Sumatra megathrust altered the state of stress over a large region surrounding the earthquakes. We evaluate the stress changes associated with coseismic and postseismic deformation following these two large events, focusing on postseismic deformation that is driven by viscoelastic relaxation of a low-viscosity asthenosphere. Under Coulomb failure stress (CFS) theory, the December 2004 event increased CFS on the future hypocentral zone of the March 2005 event by about 0.25 bar, with little or no contribution from viscous relaxation. Coseismic stresses around the rupture zones of the 1797 and 1833 Sunda trench events are negligible, but postseismic stress perturbations since December 2004 are predicted to result in CFS increases of 0.1 to 0.2 bar around these rupture zones between 2 and 8 years after the December 2004 event. These are considerable stress perturbations given that the 1797 and 1833 rupture zones are likely approaching the end of a complete seismic cycle. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2006

Post-seismic relaxation following the great 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on a compressible self-gravitating Earth

he Mw ??? 9.0 2004 December 26 Sumatra-Andaman and Mw =8.7 2005 March 28 Nias earthquakes, which collectively ruptured approximately 1800 km of the Andaman and Sunda subduction zones, are expected to be followed by vigorous viscoelastic relaxation involving both the upper and lower mantle. Because of these large spatial dimensions it is desirable to fully account for gravitational coupling effects in the relaxation process. We present a stable method of computing relaxation of a spherically-stratified, compressible and self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth following an impulsive moment release event. The solution is cast in terms of a spherical harmonic expansion of viscoelastic normal modes. For simple layered viscoelastic models, which include a low-viscosity oceanic asthenosphere, we predict substantial post-seismic effects over a region several 100s of km wide surrounding the eastern Indian Ocean. We compare observed GPS time-series from ten regional sites (mostly in Thailand and Indonesia), beginning in 2004 December, with synthetic time-series that include the coseismic and post-seismic effects of the 2004 December 26 and 2005 March 28 earthquakes. A viscosity structure involving a biviscous (Burgers body) rheology in the asthenosphere explains the pattern and amplitude of post-seismic offsets remarkably well. ?? 2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?? 2006 RAS.

Geophysical Journal International↗
USGS2006

Coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake from space-geodetic data

We invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data jointly with campaign and continuous global positioning system (GPS) data for slip in the coseismic and postseismic periods of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. The InSAR dataset consists of eight interferograms from data collected by the Envisat and Radarsat satellites spanning the time of the earthquake and variable amounts of the postseismic period. The two datasets complement each other, with the InSAR providing dense sampling of motion in the range direction of the satellite and the GPS providing more sparse, but three-dimensional measurements of ground motion. The model assumes exponential decay of the postseismic slip with a decay time constant of 0.087 years, determined from time series modeling of continuous GPS and creepmeter data. We find a geodetic moment magnitude of M 6.2 for a 1-day coseismic model and Mw 6.1 for the entire postseismic period. The coseismic rupture occurred mainly in two slip asperities; one near the hypocenter and the other 15-20 km north. Postseismic slip occurred on the shallow portions of the fault and near the rupture areas of two M 5.0 aftershocks. A comparison of the geodetic slip models with seismic moment estimates suggests that the coseismic moment release of the Parkfield earthquake is as little as 25% of the total. This underlines the importance of aseismic slip in the slip budget for the Parkfield segment.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2005

Slicing up the San Francisco Bay Area: Block kinematics and fault slip rates from GPS-derived surface velocities

Observations of surface deformation allow us to determine the kinematics of faults in the San Francisco Bay Area. We present the Bay Area velocity unification (BA??VU??, "bay view"), a compilation of over 200 horizontal surface velocities computed from campaign-style and continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from 1993 to 2003. We interpret this interseismic velocity field using a three-dimensional block model to determine the relative contributions of block motion, elastic strain accumulation, and shallow aseismic creep. The total relative motion between the Pacific plate and the rigid Sierra Nevada/Great Valley (SNGV) microplate is 37.9 ?? 0.6 mm yr-1 directed toward N30.4??W ?? 0.8?? at San Francisco (??2??). Fault slip rates from our preferred model are typically within the error bounds of geologic estimates but provide a better fit to geodetic data (notable right-lateral slip rates in mm yr-1: San Gregorio fault, 2.4 ?? 1.0; West Napa fault, 4.0 ?? 3.0; zone of faulting along the eastern margin of the Coast Range, 5.4 ?? 1.0; and Mount Diablo thrust, 3.9 ?? 1.0 of reverse slip and 4.0 ?? 0.2 of right-lateral strike slip). Slip on the northern Calaveras is partitioned between both the West Napa and Concord/ Green Valley fault systems. The total convergence across the Bay Area is negligible. Poles of rotation for Bay Area blocks progress systematically from the North America-Pacific to North America-SNGV poles. The resulting present-day relative motion cannot explain the strike of most Bay Area faults, but fault strike does loosely correlate with inferred plate motions at the time each fault initiated. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2001

Sinking mafic body in a reactivated lower crust: A mechanism for stress concentration at the New Madrid seismic zone

We propose a geodynamic model for stress concentration in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). The model postulates that a high-density (mafic) body situated in the deep crust directly beneath the most seismically active part of the NMSZ began sinking several thousands of years ago when the lower crust was suddenly weakened. Based on the fact that deformation rates in the NMSZ have accelerated over the past 9 k.y., we envision the source of this perturbation to be related to the last North American deglaciation. Excess mass of the mafic body exerts a downward pull on the elastic upper crust, leading to a cycle of primary thrust faulting with secondary strike-slip faulting, after which continued sinking of the mafic body reloads the upper crust and renews the process. This model is consistent with the youth of activity, the generation of a sequence of earthquakes, and the velocity evolution during interseismic periods, which depend upon the density contrast of the mafic body with respect to the surrounding crust, its volume, and the viscosity of the lower crust.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1997

The Loma Prieta, California, earthquake of October 17, 1989: Aftershocks and postseismic effects

While the damaging effects of the earthquake represent a significant social setback and economic loss, the geophysical effects have produced a wealth of data that have provided important insights into the structure and mechanics of the San Andreas Fault system. Generally, the period after a large earthquake is vitally important to monitor. During this part of the seismic cycle, the primary fault and the surrounding faults, rock bodies, and crustal fluids rapidly readjust in response to the earthquake's sudden movement. Geophysical measurements made at this time can provide unique information about fundamental properties of the fault zone, including its state of stress and the geometry and frictional/rheological properties of the faults within it. Because postseismic readjustments are rapid compared with corresponding changes occurring in the preseismic period, the amount and rate of information that is available during the postseismic period is relatively high. From a geophysical viewpoint, the occurrence of the Loma Prieta earthquake in a section of the San Andreas fault zone that is surrounded by multiple and extensive geophysical monitoring networks has produced nothing less than a scientific bonanza. The reports assembled in this chapter collectively examine available geophysical observations made before and after the earthquake and model the earthquake's principal postseismic effects. The chapter covers four broad categories of postseismic effect: (1) aftershocks; (2) postseismic fault movements; (3) postseismic surface deformation; and (4) changes in electrical conductivity and crustal fluids.

California↗
USGS1995

Rapid deformation of the south flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

The south flank of Kilauea volcano has experienced two large [magnitude ( M ) 7.2 and M 6.1] earthquakes in the past two decades. Global Positioning System measurements conducted between 1990 and 1993 reveal seaward displacements of Kilauea's central south flank at rates of up to about 10 centimeters per year. In contrast, the northern side of the volcano and the distal ends of the south flank did not displace significantly. The observations can be explained by slip on a low-angle fault beneath the south flank combined with dilation deep within Kilauea's rift system, both at rates of at least 15 centimeters per year.

Hawaii↗