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Geology topics

Philip A. Freeman

Publications and source records attributed to Philip A. Freeman.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2014

U.S. Geological Survey carbon sequestration: Geologic research and assessments

In 2007, the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of geologic storage resources for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and to evaluate the national technically recoverable hydrocarbon resources resulting from CO 2 injection and storage through CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR). In addition, the USGS is addressing several other areas of carbon sequestration research that include study of natural CO 2 and helium reservoirs as analogues for anthropogenic CO 2 storage, the economics of CO 2 storage and CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery, and induced seismicity associated with CO 2 geologic storage.

Energy Procedia↗
USGS2012

Role of stranded gas from Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Australia in meeting Asia’s future demand for gas imports

Demand for natural gas is increasing more rapidly than anticipated in Far East markets because (1) China has modified its policies in order to increase reliance on gas, in part to mitigate the growth in its coal consumption (which now stand at almost half of world coal production), (2) Japan has announced its intention to eventually shutdown its nuclear power industry, and (3) India, which currently has more than 400 million people without electricity, desires to accelerate electrification. This analysis investigates the potential role of stranded gas from Central Asia, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Australia in meeting Asia's future demand for gas imports. It initially surveys the discovered or known gas in stranded gas accumulations in Central Asia, Russia, Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. It then examines the primary gas import markets of China, India, Japan, and South Korea by describing energy use, gas demand trends, and domestic gas supplies to establish boundaries that encompass the wide variation in gas import demands in these markets during the two decades following 2020. Then the cost of developing and delivering gas through overland pipelines from selected stranded gas fields in Central Asia and Russia to China is examined. Analysis shows that for the Shanghai market in China, the costs of developing and delivering Russia's stranded gas from the petroleum provinces of eastern Siberia are competitive with costs estimated for stranded gas from Central Asia. However, for the Western Siberian Basin, delivered gas costs are at least 3 US dollars per thousand cubic feet (USD/Mcf) higher than delivered gas from Central Asia. The extraction and transport costs to a liquefaction plant for gas from stranded gas fields located in Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the basins of eastern Siberia are then evaluated. The resource cost functions presented show development and extraction costs as a function of the volume of stranded gas developed for each country. The analysis demonstrates that, although the Russian fields in areas of eastern Siberia are large with relatively low extraction costs, distances to a potential liquefaction plant at Vladivostok make them initially the high cost suppliers of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. For the LNG markets examined, Australia and Malaysia are initially the lowest cost suppliers. For the Shanghai market, a comparison of the cost of supplying gas by pipeline with the cost of supplying LNG shows that the pipeline costs from areas of eastern Siberia and Central Asia are generally lower than delivered cost of gas as LNG from the LNG supply sources considered.

Central Asia, Southeast Asia↗
USGS2012

Role of stranded gas from Central Asia and Russia in meeting Europe’s future import demand for gas

Stranded gas is natural gas in discovered fields that is currently not commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. This study examines stranded gas from Russia and Central Asia and the role it can play in addressing Europe’s growing demand for imported natural gas requiring additional volumes of gas in excess of 130 trillion cubic feet. We find sufficient volumes of stranded gas in fields in the Central Asian state of Turkmenistan in the Amu-Darya Basin and in Russian fields in the West Siberian Basin. The analysis focused on the estimated cost of extraction and delivery to a single market location for various concentrations of gas in stranded gas fields in Central Asia and Russia. At import prices of $10 per million British thermal units (MMBTU), there are sufficient gas resources in stranded fields that can be commercially developed and delivered to the European market. If, however, imported gas prices fall below $7 per MMBTU, most of the stranded gas evaluated from West Siberia will not be commercial. The costs of delivering gas from the largest stranded gas fields in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan were calculated to be greater than 30% below the costs of delivering gas from the largest stranded gas fields in Russia, which are located in the Yamal Peninsula. Central Asian gas producers, particularly those east of the Caspian Sea, have limited market options due to the near monopoly position that Gazprom holds in transporting pipeline gas from east of Europe. This study examines several additional options to supply gas to Europe by reviewing expected delivered costs from North African and Atlantic basin suppliers.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2011

Empirical methods for detecting regional trends and other spatial expressions in antrim shale gas productivity, with implications for improving resource projections using local nonparametric estimation techniques

The primary objectives of this research were to (1) investigate empirical methods for establishing regional trends in unconventional gas resources as exhibited by historical production data and (2) determine whether or not incorporating additional knowledge of a regional trend in a suite of previously established local nonparametric resource prediction algorithms influences assessment results. Three different trend detection methods were applied to publicly available production data (well EUR aggregated to 80-acre cells) from the Devonian Antrim Shale gas play in the Michigan Basin. This effort led to the identification of a southeast–northwest trend in cell EUR values across the play that, in a very general sense, conforms to the primary fracture and structural orientations of the province. However, including this trend in the resource prediction algorithms did not lead to improved results. Further analysis indicated the existence of clustering among cell EUR values that likely dampens the contribution of the regional trend. The reason for the clustering, a somewhat unexpected result, is not completely understood, although the geological literature provides some possible explanations. With appropriate data, a better understanding of this clustering phenomenon may lead to important information about the factors and their interactions that control Antrim Shale gas production, which may, in turn, help establish a more general protocol for better estimating resources in this and other shale gas plays.

Michigan↗
USGS2011

New U.S. Geological Survey method for the assessment of reserve growth

Reserve growth is defined as the estimated increases in quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that have the potential to be added to remaining reserves in discovered accumulations through extension, revision, improved recovery efficiency, and additions of new pools or reservoirs. A new U.S. Geological Survey method was developed to assess the reserve-growth potential of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas to be added to reserves under proven technology currently in practice within the trend or play, or which reasonably can be extrapolated from geologically similar trends or plays. This method currently is in use to assess potential additions to reserves in discovered fields of the United States. The new approach involves (1) individual analysis of selected large accumulations that contribute most to reserve growth, and (2) conventional statistical modeling of reserve growth in remaining accumulations. This report will focus on the individual accumulation analysis. In the past, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated reserve growth by statistical methods using historical recoverable-quantity data. Those statistical methods were based on growth rates averaged by the number of years since accumulation discovery. Accumulations in mature petroleum provinces with volumetrically significant reserve growth, however, bias statistical models of the data; therefore, accumulations with significant reserve growth are best analyzed separately from those with less significant reserve growth. Large (greater than 500 million barrels) and older (with respect to year of discovery) oil accumulations increase in size at greater rates late in their development history in contrast to more recently discovered accumulations that achieve most growth early in their development history. Such differences greatly affect the statistical methods commonly used to forecast reserve growth. The individual accumulation-analysis method involves estimating the in-place petroleum quantity and its uncertainty, as well as the estimated (forecasted) recoverability and its respective uncertainty. These variables are assigned probabilistic distributions and are combined statistically to provide probabilistic estimates of ultimate recoverable quantities. Cumulative production and remaining reserves are then subtracted from the estimated ultimate recoverable quantities to provide potential reserve growth. In practice, results of the two methods are aggregated to various scales, the highest of which includes an entire country or the world total. The aggregated results are reported along with the statistically appropriate uncertainties.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2011

Survey of stranded gas and delivered costs to Europe of selected gas resources

Two important trends affecting the expected growth of global gas markets are (1) the shift by many industrialized countries from coal-fired electricity generation to the use of natural gas to generate electricity and (2) the industrialization of the heavily populated Asian countries of India and China. This paper surveys discovered gas in stranded conventional gas accumulations and presents estimates of the cost of developing and producing stranded gas in selected countries. Stranded gas is natural gas in discovered or identified fields that is not currently commercially producible for either physical or economic reasons. Published reserves of gas at the global level do not distinguish between volumes of gas in producing fields and volumes in nonproducing fields. Data on stranded gas reported here-that is the volumes, geographical distribution, and size distributions of stranded gas fields at the country and regional level-are based on the examination of individual-field data and represent a significant improvement in information available to industry and government decision makers. Globally, stranded gas is pervasive, but large volumes in large accumulations are concentrated in only a few areas. The cost component of the paper focuses on stranded conventional gas accumulations in Africa and South America that have the potential to augment supplies to Europe. The methods described for the computation of extraction and transport costs are innovative in that they use information on the sizes and geographical distribution of the identified stranded gas fields. The costs are based on industry data specific to the country and geologic basin where the stranded gas is located. Gas supplies to Europe can be increased significantly at competitive costs by the development of stranded gas. Net extraction costs of producing the identified gas depend critically on the natural-gas-liquids (NGLs) content, the prevailing prices of liquids, the size of the gas accumulation, and the deposit's location. The diversity of the distribution of stranded gas is one obstacle to the exercise of market power by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).

Conference Paper↗
USGS2010

A probabilistic assessment methodology for the evaluation of geologic carbon dioxide storage

In 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140) authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to conduct a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy. The first year of that activity was specified for development of a methodology to estimate storage potential that could be applied uniformly to geologic formations across the United States. After its release, the methodology was to receive public comment and external expert review. An initial methodology was developed and published in March 2009 (Burruss and others, 2009), and public comments were received. The report was then sent to a panel of experts for external review. The external review report was received by the USGS in December 2009. This report is in response to those external comments and reviews and describes how the previous assessment methodology (Burruss and others, 2009) was revised. The resource that is assessed is the technically accessible storage resource, which is defined as the mass of CO 2 that can be stored in the pore volume of a storage formation. The methodology that is presented in this report is intended to be used for assessments at scales ranging from regional to subbasinal in which storage assessment units are defined on the basis of common geologic and hydrologic characteristics. The methodology does not apply to site-specific evaluation of storage resources or capacity.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

Development of a probabilistic assessment methodology for evaluation of carbon dioxide storage

This report describes a probabilistic assessment methodology developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for evaluation of the resource potential for storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the subsurface of the United States as authorized by the Energy Independence and Security Act (Public Law 110-140, 2007). The methodology is based on USGS assessment methodologies for oil and gas resources created and refined over the last 30 years. The resource that is evaluated is the volume of pore space in the subsurface in the depth range of 3,000 to 13,000 feet that can be described within a geologically defined storage assessment unit consisting of a storage formation and an enclosing seal formation. Storage assessment units are divided into physical traps (PTs), which in most cases are oil and gas reservoirs, and the surrounding saline formation (SF), which encompasses the remainder of the storage formation. The storage resource is determined separately for these two types of storage. Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to calculate a distribution of the potential storage size for individual PTs and the SF. To estimate the aggregate storage resource of all PTs, a second Monte Carlo simulation step is used to sample the size and number of PTs. The probability of successful storage for individual PTs or the entire SF, defined in this methodology by the likelihood that the amount of CO 2 stored will be greater than a prescribed minimum, is based on an estimate of the probability of containment using present-day geologic knowledge. The report concludes with a brief discussion of needed research data that could be used to refine assessment methodologies for CO 2 sequestration.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2009

Economics of undiscovered oil and gas in the North Slope of Alaska: Economic update and synthesis

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published assessments by geologists of undiscovered conventional oil and gas accumulations in the North Slope of Alaska; these assessments contain a set of scientifically based estimates of undiscovered, technically recoverable quantities of oil and gas in discrete oil and gas accumulations that can be produced with conventional recovery technology. The assessments do not incorporate economic factors such as recovery costs and product prices. The assessors considered undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in four areas of the North Slope: (1) the central North Slope, (2) the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA), (3) the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), and (4) the area west of the NPRA, called in this report the 'western North Slope'. These analyses were prepared at different times with various minimum assessed oil and gas accumulation sizes and with slightly different assumptions. Results of these past studies were recently supplemented with information by the assessment geologists that allowed adjustments for uniform minimum assessed accumulation sizes and a consistent set of assumptions. The effort permitted the statistical aggregation of the assessments of the four areas composing the study area. This economic analysis is based on undiscovered assessed accumulation distributions represented by the four-area aggregation and incorporates updates of costs and technological and fiscal assumptions used in the initial economic analysis that accompanied the geologic assessment of each study area.

Alaska↗
USGS2008

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low-permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are often large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be areawide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm, the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance-level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional-scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim-shale gas play in the Michigan basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models chosen because they can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) smooth out granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined arbitrarily by extraneous factors. The analysis shows a 15-20% gain in gas volume when these simple models are applied to order drilling prospects strategically rather than to choose drilling locations randomly. Copyright ?? 2008 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

SPE Reservoir Evaluation and Engineering↗
USGS2008

Exploration maturity key to ranking search areas

The study area of US Geological Survey Circular 1288, the world outside the US and Canada, was partitioned into 44 countries and country groups. Map figures such as Fig. 2 and graphs similar to Figs. 3 and 4 provide a visual summary of maturity of oil and gas exploration. From 1992 through 2001, exploration data show that in the study area the delineated prospective area expanded at a rate of about 50,000 sq miles/year, while the explored area grew at a rate of 11,000 sq miles/year. The delineated prospective area established by 1970 accounts for less than 40% of total delineated prospective area but contains 75% of the oil discovered to date in the study area. From 1991 through 2000, offshore discoveries accounted for 59% of the oil and 77% of the gas discovered in the study area.

Oil & Gas Journal↗
USGS2007

Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Natural Resources Research↗
USGS2007

Statistics of petroleum exploration in the world outside the United States and Canada through 2001

Future oil and gas supplies depend, in part, on the reserves that are expected to be added through exploration and new discoveries. This Circular presents a summary of the statistics and an analysis of petroleum exploration in the world outside the United States and Canada (the study area) through 2001. It updates U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1096 (by E.D. Attanasi and D.H. Root, 1993) and expands coverage of the statistics to areas where drilling and discovery data have recently become available. These new areas include China, the formerly Communist countries of Eastern Europe, and the countries that once were part of the former Soviet Union in Europe and Asia. Data are presented by country but are organized by petroleum provinces delineated by the U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team (USGS Digital Data Series DDS?60, published in 2000). The data and analysis are presented in maps and graphs, providing a visual summary of the exploration maturity of an area. The maps show the delineated prospective areas and explored areas through 2001; explored areas have a drilling density that would rule out the occurrence of undetected large petroleum accumulations. Graphs summarize the exploration yields in terms of cumulative recoverable discovered oil and gas by delineated prospective area. From 1992 through 2001 in areas outside the United States and Canada, the delineated prospective area expanded at a rate of about 50,000 square miles per year while the explored area grew at the rate of about 11,000 square miles per year. The delineated prospective area established by 1970 contains about 75 percent of the oil discovered to date in the study area. This area is slightly less than 40 percent of the delineated prospective area established through 2001. Maps and graphs show the extension of the delineated prospective area to deepwater areas offshore of Brazil and West Africa. From 1991 through 2000, offshore discoveries accounted for 59 percent of the oil and 77 percent of the gas discovered in the study area. The petroleum industry's decision to incur the greater costs of moving offshore and into deeper waters appears to be a response to the absence of onshore prospects of comparable quality. Where natural gas can be commercially developed and marketed, data show an expansion of exploration to target gas-prone areas.

Circular↗
USGS2007

Heavy oil and natural bitumen resources in geological basins of the world

Heavy oil and natural bitumen are oils set apart by their high viscosity (resistance to flow) and high density (low API gravity). These attributes reflect the invariable presence of up to 50 weight percent asphaltenes, very high molecular weight hydrocarbon molecules incorporating many heteroatoms in their lattices. Almost all heavy oil and natural bitumen are alteration products of conventional oil. Total resources of heavy oil in known accumulations are 3,396 billion barrels of original oil in place, of which 30 billion barrels are included as prospective additional oil. The total natural bitumen resource in known accumulations amounts to 5,505 billion barrels of oil originally in place, which includes 993 billion barrels as prospective additional oil. This resource is distributed in 192 basins containing heavy oil and 89 basins with natural bitumen. Of the nine basic Klemme basin types, some with subdivisions, the most prolific by far for known heavy oil and natural bitumen volumes are continental multicyclic basins, either basins on the craton margin or closed basins along convergent plate margins. The former includes 47 percent of the natural bitumen, the latter 47 percent of the heavy oil and 46 percent of the natural bitumen. Little if any heavy oil occurs in fore-arc basins, and natural bitumen does not occur in either fore-arc or delta basins.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2007

Economic decision making and the application of nonparametric prediction models

Sustained increases in energy prices have focused attention on gas resources in low permeability shale or in coals that were previously considered economically marginal. Daily well deliverability is often relatively small, although the estimates of the total volumes of recoverable resources in these settings are large. Planning and development decisions for extraction of such resources must be area-wide because profitable extraction requires optimization of scale economies to minimize costs and reduce risk. For an individual firm the decision to enter such plays depends on reconnaissance level estimates of regional recoverable resources and on cost estimates to develop untested areas. This paper shows how simple nonparametric local regression models, used to predict technically recoverable resources at untested sites, can be combined with economic models to compute regional scale cost functions. The context of the worked example is the Devonian Antrim shale gas play, Michigan Basin. One finding relates to selection of the resource prediction model to be used with economic models. Models which can best predict aggregate volume over larger areas (many hundreds of sites) may lose granularity in the distribution of predicted volumes at individual sites. This loss of detail affects the representation of economic cost functions and may affect economic decisions. Second, because some analysts consider unconventional resources to be ubiquitous, the selection and order of specific drilling sites may, in practice, be determined by extraneous factors. The paper also shows that when these simple prediction models are used to strategically order drilling prospects, the gain in gas volume over volumes associated with simple random site selection amounts to 15 to 20 percent. It also discusses why the observed benefit of updating predictions from results of new drilling, as opposed to following static predictions, is somewhat smaller. Copyright 2007, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2006

Siberian platform: Geology and natural bitumen resources

The Siberian platform is located between the Yenisey River on the west and the Lena River on the south and east. The Siberian platform is vast in size and inhospitable in its climate. This report is concerned principally with the setting, formation, and potential volumes of natural bitumen. In this report the volumes of maltha and asphalt referred to in the Russian literature are combined to represent natural bitumen. The generation of hydrocarbons and formation of hydrocarbon accumulations are discussed. The sedimentary basins of the Platform are described in terms of the Klemme basin classification system and the conditions controlling formation of natural bitumen. Estimates of in-place bitumen resources are reviewed and evaluated. If the bitumen volume estimate is confined to parts of identified deposits where field observations have verified rock and bitumen grades values, the bitumen resource amounts to about 62 billion barrels of oil in-place. However, estimates of an order of magnitude larger can be obtained if additional speculative and unverified rock volumes and grade measures are included.

Open-File Report↗