Geology topics

Peter McCarthy

Publications and source records attributed to Peter McCarthy.

14 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

Regional regression equations based on channel-width characteristics to estimate peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana using peak-flow frequency data through water year 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation, developed regression equations based on channel width to estimate peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana. The equations are based on peak-flow data at streamgages through September 2011 (end of water year 2011), and channel widths measured in the field and from aerial photographs. Active-channel width and bankfull width (channel widths) were measured in the field at 64 sites across Montana in 2017. Channel widths also were measured near 515 streamgages from aerial photographs. These new channel-width data, along with more than 438 historical channel-width measurements, are published in a separate data release. Regression equations were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression. The channel-width regression equations can be used to estimate peak-flow frequencies (peak-flow magnitudes associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites in each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana. Methods are presented for weighting estimates from the channel-width equations with estimates from equations using basin characteristics. The weighting technique can be used to reduce the standard error of prediction relative to that obtained using a single method. Several example problems covering a range of estimation scenarios also are included.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Montana StreamStats—A method for retrieving basin and streamflow characteristics in Montana: Chapter A in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow characteristics and other related information needed by water-resource managers to protect people and property from floods, plan and manage water-resource activities, and protect water quality. Streamflow characteristics provided by the USGS, such as peak-flow and low-flow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations, are frequently used by engineers, flood forecasters, land managers, biologists, and others to guide their everyday decisions. In addition to providing streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, the USGS also develops regional regression equations and drainage area-adjustment methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at locations on ungaged streams. Regional regression equations can be complex and often require users to determine several basin characteristics, which are physical and climatic characteristics of the stream and its drainage basin. Obtaining these basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged sites traditionally has been time consuming and subjective, and led to inconsistent results. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow and basin characteristics for USGS streamflow-gaging stations and user-selected locations on ungaged streams. The USGS, in cooperation with Montana Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to develop a StreamStats application for Montana, compute streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, and develop regional regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Chapter A of this Scientific Investigations Report describes the Montana StreamStats application and the datasets, streamflow-gaging stations, streamflow characteristics, and regression equations (as described fully in Chapters B through G of this report) that are used for development of the StreamStats application for Montana.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Temporal trends and stationarity in annual peak flow and peak-flow timing for selected long-term streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana through water year 2011: Chapter B in Montana StreamStats

A large-scale study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, was done to investigate general patterns in peak-flow temporal trends and stationarity through water year 2011 for 24 long-term streamflow-gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as gaging stations) in Montana. Hereinafter, all years refer to water years; a water year is the 12-month period from October 1 through September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends. The primary focus of the study was to identify general patterns in peak-flow temporal trends and stationarity that are relevant to application of peak-flow frequency analyses within a statewide gaging-station network. Temporal trends were analyzed for two hydrologic variables: annual peak flow and peak-flow timing. Annual peak flow is the maximum instantaneous discharge, in cubic feet per second, recorded each year a gaging station was operated. Peak-flow timing is the day of the annual peak flow (hereinafter referred to as day of peak), recorded each year a gaging station was operated. Study results provide evidence that annual peak flow for most of the long-term gaging stations can be reasonably considered as stationary for application of peak-flow frequency analyses within a statewide gaging station network. Upward trends in annual peak flow during 1930–76 generally were stronger than downward trends during 1967–2011 for most long-term gaging stations. Statistical distributions of annual peak flow generally were similar among three summary time periods (1930–78, 1979–2011, and the entire period of record). However, for two low-elevation gaging stations in eastern Montana (Poplar River at international boundary [gaging station 06178000] and Powder River at Moorhead, Montana [gaging station 06324500]), substantial downward trends in annual peak flow during 1967–2011 were of similar or stronger magnitude than the upward trends during 1930–76, and the annual-peak-flow medians for 1979–2011 were substantially lower than the medians for the entire period of record. For peak-flow timing for most long-term gaging stations, differences in trends between 1930–76 and 1967–2011 are variable and not particularly strong. Statistical distributions generally are similar among the summary time periods. However, for two high-elevation gaging stations on a Missouri River headwater tributary (Gallatin River near Gallatin Gateway, Montana [gaging station 06043500] and Gallatin River at Logan, Montana [gaging station 06052500]) and for five high-elevation gaging stations in the Yellowstone River Basin (Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs, Montana [gaging station 06191500], Yellowstone River near Livingston, Montana [gaging station 06192500], Clarks Fork Yellowstone River near Belfry, Montana [gaging station 06207500], Clarks Fork Yellowstone River at Edgar, Montana [gaging station 06208500], and Yellowstone River at Billings, Montana [gaging station 06214500]) downward trends in peak-flow timing during 1967–2011 generally were stronger than upward trends during 1930–1976, and day-of-peak medians for 1979–2011 were considerably less than medians for 1930–78. The downward trends in peak-flow timing for 1967–2011 indicate that the timing of annual peak flows changed from later in the year to earlier in the year. For the seven high-elevation gaging stations, the mean change during 1967–2011 was about 13 days (range of 8 to 22 days). For most of the high-elevation gaging stations in the Missouri River headwaters, Yellowstone River Basin, and Columbia River Basin, there was general correspondence between trend patterns for annual peak flow and trend patterns for peak-flow timing; that is, during periods when there were upward trends in annual peak flow, there generally also were upward trends in peak-flow timing. Conversely, during periods when there were downward trends in annual peak flow, there generally also were downward trends in peak-flow timing. The two low-elevation gaging stations in eastern Montana (Poplar River at international boundary [gaging station 06178000] and Powder River at Moorhead, Montana [gaging station 06324500]) had considerable changes in annual-peakflow characteristics after the mid-1970s, which might provide evidence of potential nonstationarity in the peak-flow records. The two low-elevation gaging stations that have potential nonstationarity are located in drainage basins that are strongly affected by agricultural activities that potentially affect the hydrologic regimes. Primary agricultural activities that might alter natural hydrologic conditions include construction of small impoundments (primarily for stock-watering purposes) and irrigation diversions. Temporal variability in these activities might contribute to the potential nonstationarity issues. Changes in climatic characteristics after the mid-1970s also possibly contribute to the potential nonstationarity issues. Lack of considerable indication of potential nonstationarity in annual peak flow for the other long-term gaging stations in this study might indicate that climatic changes have been more pronounced with respect to effects on peak flows in low elevation areas in eastern Montana than in areas represented by the other long-term gaging stations. Another possibility is that climatic changes after the mid-1970s are exacerbated in low-elevation areas where small-impoundment development and potential effects of irrigation diversions might be more extensive.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Peak-flow frequency analyses and results based on data through water year 2011 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter C in Montana StreamStats

Chapter C of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources, to provide an update of statewide peak-flow frequency analyses and results for Montana. The purpose of this report chapter is to present peak-flow frequency analyses and results for 725 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. The 725 streamflow-gaging stations included in this study represent nearly all streamflowgaging stations in Montana (plus some from adjacent states or Canadian Provinces) that have at least 10 years of peak-flow records through water year 2011. For 29 of the 725 streamflow-gaging stations, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for both unregulated and regulated conditions. Thus, peak-flow frequency analyses and results are reported for a total of 754 analyses. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Adjusted peak-flow frequency estimates for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter D in Montana StreamStats

The climatic conditions of the specific time period during which peak-flow data were collected at a given streamflow-gaging station (hereinafter referred to as gaging station) can substantially affect how well the peak-flow frequency (hereinafter referred to as frequency) results represent long-term hydrologic conditions. Differences in the timing of the periods of record can result in substantial inconsistencies in frequency estimates for hydrologically similar gaging stations. Potential for inconsistency increases with decreasing peak-flow record length. The representativeness of the frequency estimates for a short-term gaging station can be adjusted by various methods including weighting the at-site results in association with frequency estimates from regional regression equations (RREs) by using the Weighted Independent Estimates (WIE) program. Also, for gaging stations that cannot be adjusted by using the WIE program because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs, frequency estimates might be improved by using record extension procedures, including a mixed-station analysis using the maintenance of variance type I (MOVE.1) procedure. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Transportation and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to provide adjusted frequency estimates for selected gaging stations through water year 2011. The purpose of Chapter D of this Scientific Investigations Report is to present adjusted frequency estimates for 504 selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana based on data through water year 2011. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for the 66.7-, 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities are reported. These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to the 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. The at-site frequency estimates were adjusted by weighting with frequency estimates from RREs using the WIE program for 438 selected gaging stations in Montana. These 438 selected gaging stations (1) had periods of record less than or equal to 40 years, (2) represented unregulated or minor regulation conditions, and (3) had drainage areas less than about 2,750 square miles. The weighted-average frequency estimates obtained by weighting with RREs generally are considered to provide improved frequency estimates. In some cases, there are substantial differences among the at-site frequency estimates, the regression-equation frequency estimates, and the weighted-average frequency estimates. In these cases, thoughtful consideration should be applied when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate. Some factors that might be considered when selecting the appropriate frequency estimate include (1) whether the specific gaging station has peak-flow characteristics that distinguish it from most other gaging stations used in developing the RREs for the hydrologic region; and (2) the length of the peak-flow record and the general climatic characteristics during the period when the peak-flow data were collected. For critical structure-design applications, a conservative approach would be to select the higher of the at-site frequency estimate and the weighted-average frequency estimate. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure generally was applied in cases where three or more gaging stations were located on the same large river and some of the gaging stations could not be adjusted using the weighted-average method because of regulation or drainage areas too large for application of RREs. The mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure was applied to 66 selected gaging stations on 19 large rivers. The general approach for using mixed-station record extension procedures to adjust at-site frequencies involved (1) determining appropriate base periods for the gaging stations on the large rivers, (2) synthesizing peak-flow data for the gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods by using the mixed-station MOVE.1 procedure, and (3) conducting frequency analysis on the combined recorded and synthesized peak-flow data for each gaging station. Frequency estimates for the combined recorded and synthesized datasets for 66 gaging stations with incomplete peak-flow records during the base periods are presented. The uncertainties in the mixed-station record extension results are difficult to directly quantify; thus, it is important to understand the intended use of the estimated frequencies based on analysis of the combined recorded and synthesized datasets. The estimated frequencies are considered general estimates of frequency relations among gaging stations on the same stream channel that might be expected if the gaging stations had been gaged during the same long-term base period. However, because the mixed-station record extension procedures involve secondary statistical analysis with accompanying errors, the uncertainty of the frequency estimates is larger than would be obtained by collecting systematic records for the same number of years in the base period.

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USGS2016

Streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana: Chapter E in Montana StreamStats

Chapter E of this Scientific Investigations Report documents results from a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, to provide an update of statewide streamflow characteristics based on data through water year 2009 for streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana. Streamflow characteristics are presented for 408 streamflow-gaging stations in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high streamflow, the magnitude and probability of low streamflow for three seasons (March–June, July–October, and November–February), streamflow duration statistics for monthly and annual periods, and mean streamflows for monthly and annual periods. Streamflow is considered to be regulated at streamflow-gaging stations where dams or other large-scale human modifications affect 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for streamflow-gaging stations with sufficient data.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression. All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application. Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis. This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites in western Montana based on data through water year 2009: Chapter G in Montana StreamStats

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality and the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, developed regional regression equations based on basin and streamflow characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2009 that can be used to estimate streamflow characteristics for ungaged sites in western Montana. The regression equations allow estimation of low-flow frequencies; mean annual and mean monthly streamflows; and the 20-, 50-, and 80-percent durations for annual and monthly duration streamflows for ungaged sites in western Montana that are unaffected by regulation. Regression equations were developed for 54 streamflow characteristics in each of the 4 hydrologic regions generally located in western Montana. Exploratory data analyses determined that of the 40 basin characteristics used as explanatory variables, only 3 were significant in the final equations. These three basin characteristics are contributing drainage area, mean annual precipitation of the drainage basin, and percentage of basin with slopes greater than 50 percent. Low-flow frequency data and daily mean streamflow data from 152 streamflow-gaging stations were used to develop the regression equations. These 152 streamflow-gaging stations were considered to be unregulated (or only the unregulated period of record for regulated streamflow-gaging stations were used). For this study, a streamflow-gaging station is considered to be unregulated if cumulative drainage area upstream from all upstream dams is less than 20 percent of the drainage basin for the streamflow-gaging station, and if no large diversion canals are upstream from the streamflow-gaging station. In addition to the regional regression equations, two methods for estimating streamflow characteristics based on drainage areas of a nearby streamflow-gaging station are provided. Also, spreadsheet tools are provided for calculating streamflow characteristics based on regression equations or the drainage-area ratio method. All of the data used to calculate basin characteristics were derived from publicly available data sources and are available through the U.S. Geological Survey Streamstats program ( http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/ ) for Montana. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report have been loaded to the Montana StreamStats application and can be used to derive streamflow characteristics for ungaged sites.

Montana↗

USGS2012

Lateral and vertical channel movement and potential for bed-material movement on the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake, Montana

The 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake caused a massive landslide (Madison Slide) that dammed the Madison River and formed Earthquake Lake. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers excavated a spillway through the Madison Slide to permit outflow from Earthquake Lake. In June 1970, high streamflows on the Madison River severely eroded the spillway channel and damaged the roadway embankment along U.S. Highway 287 downstream from the Madison Slide. Investigations undertaken following the 1970 flood events concluded that substantial erosion through and downstream from the spillway could be expected for streamflows greater than 3,500 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s). Accordingly, the owners of Hebgen Dam, upstream from Earthquake Lake, have tried to manage releases from Hebgen Lake to prevent streamflows from exceeding 3,500 ft 3 /s measured at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging station 0638800 Madison River at Kirby Ranch, near Cameron, Montana. Management of flow releases from Hebgen Lake to avoid exceeding the threshold streamflow at USGS gaging station 06038800 is difficult, and has been questioned for two reasons. First, no road damage was reported downstream from the Earthquake Lake outlet in 1993, 1996, and 1997 when streamflows exceeded the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold. Second, the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold generally precludes releases of higher flows that could be beneficial to the blue-ribbon trout fishery downstream in the Madison River. In response to concerns about minimizing streamflow downstream from Earthquake Lake and the possible armoring of the spillway, the USGS, in cooperation with the Madison River Fisheries Technical Advisory Committee (MADTAC; Bureau of Land Management; Montana Department of Environmental Quality; Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks; PPL-Montana; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service - Gallatin National Forest; and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), conducted a study to determine movement of the Madison River channel downstream from Earthquake Lake and to investigate the potential for bed material movement along the same reach. The purpose of this report is to present information about the lateral and vertical movement of the Madison River from 1970 to 2006 for a 1-mile reach downstream from Earthquake Lake and for Raynolds Pass Bridge, and to provide an analysis of the potential for bed-material movement so that MADTAC can evaluate the applicability of the previously determined threshold streamflow for initiation of damaging erosion. As part of this study channel cross sections originally surveyed by the USGS in 1971 were resurveyed in 2006. Incremental channel-movement distances were determined by comparing the stream centerlines from 14 aerial photographs taken between 1970 and 2006. Depths of channel incision and aggregation were determined by comparing the 2006 and 1971 cross-section and water-surface data. Particle sizes of bed and bank materials were measured in 2006 and 2008 using the pebble-count method and sieve analyses. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model (HEC-RAS) was used to calculate mean boundary-shear stresses for various streamflows; these calculated boundary-shear stresses were compared to calculated critical-shear stresses for the bed materials to determine the potential for bed-material movement. A comparison of lateral channel movement distances with annual peak streamflows shows that streamflows higher than the 3,500-ft 3 /s threshold were followed by lateral channel movement except from 1991 to 1992 and possibly from 1996 to 1997. However, it was not possible to discern whether the channel moved gradually or suddenly, or in response to one peak flow, to several peak flows, or to sustained flows. The channel moved between 2002 and 2005 even when streamflows were less than the threshold streamflow of 3,500 ft 3 /s. Comparisons of cross sections and aerial photographs show that the channel has moved laterally and incised and aggraded to varying degrees. The channel has developed meander bends and has incised as much as 5–12 feet (ft) through the upstream part of the Madison Slide (cross sections 1400–800). Near cross section 800, the stream has eroded into the steep right bank between the stream and the road where fill was mechanically placed after 1970. Channel movement also was noted downstream from the Madison Slide. Near Raynolds Pass Bridge, about 3 miles (mi) downstream from Earthquake Lake, elevations across the channel have changed by -1.4 ft to +1.9 ft, but these changes were local in nature and could represent a few rocks or depressions in the bed. Overall, it does not appear that the materials eroded from the Madison Slide are causing aggradation in the subreach near the Raynolds Pass Bridge. Comparisons of critical shear stresses to mean boundary-shear stresses indicate that the D50 particle sizes (median size) along the right side of the bed between cross sections 400 and 500 and along the right side of the bed between cross sections 1300 and 1400 could move at the threshold streamflow. In contrast, most of the D84 particle sizes at those two locations probably will not move at the threshold streamflow. This lack of movement for the larger particles at the threshold streamflow could lead to further armoring of the bed as the D50 and smaller-sized particles are removed from the bed and transported downstream. The Shields parameter values from 0.04 to 0.08 that were used to calculate critical shear stresses could be conservative for a high-gradient stream such as the Madison. A higher, less conservative, Shields parameter would result in higher critical shear stresses, meaning that higher streamflows would be required to move material than those reported herein. In addition, because materials in the channel thalweg are exposed to higher boundary-shear stresses than the materials along the sides of the channel, larger, more erosion-resistant materials likely exist in the deeper parts of the channel where high-flow depths and velocities prevented sediment sampling. Movement of these materials might require higher critical shear stresses than estimated in this report. Characterization of sediment sizes in the center of the stream and observation of bed-material movement for a range of streamflows could provide information to help refine the Shields parameter and critical-shear stress estimates for bed materials in the Madison River downstream from Earthquake Lake. Furthermore, resurveying cross sections and water-surface elevations more frequently (either annually or after high streamflows) could better define the relation between streamflow and lateral and vertical channel movement.

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USGS2011

A digital model for planning water management at Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge, west-central Montana

Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge is an important area for waterfowl production and migratory stopover in west-central Montana. Eight wetland units covering about 5,600 acres are the essential features of the refuge. Water availability for the wetland units can be uncertain owing to the large natural variations in precipitation and runoff and the high cost of pumping supplemental water. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, has developed a digital model for planning water management. The model can simulate strategies for water transfers among the eight wetland units and account for variability in runoff and pumped water. This report describes this digital model, which uses a water-accounting spreadsheet to track inputs and outputs to each of the wetland units of Benton Lake National Wildlife Refuge. Inputs to the model include (1) monthly values for precipitation, pumped water, runoff, and evaporation; (2) water-level/capacity data for each wetland unit; and (3) the pan-evaporation coefficient. Outputs include monthly water volume and flooded surface area for each unit for as many as 5 consecutive years. The digital model was calibrated by comparing simulated and historical measured water volumes for specific test years.

Montana↗

USGS2009

Estimation of Streamflow Characteristics for Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge, Northeastern Montana

Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (CMR) encompasses about 1.1 million acres (including Fort Peck Reservoir on the Missouri River) in northeastern Montana. To ensure that sufficient streamflow remains in the tributary streams to maintain the riparian corridors, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is negotiating water-rights issues with the Reserved Water Rights Compact Commission of Montana. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, conducted a study to gage, for a short period, selected streams that cross CMR, and analyze data to estimate long-term streamflow characteristics for CMR. The long-term streamflow characteristics of primary interest include the monthly and annual 90-, 80-, 50-, and 20-percent exceedance streamflows and mean streamflows (Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, respectively), and the 1.5-, 2-, and 2.33- year peak flows (PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33, respectively). The Regional Adjustment Relationship (RAR) was investigated for estimating the monthly and annual Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM, and the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33 for the short-term CMR gaging stations (hereinafter referred to as CMR stations). The RAR was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the long-term Q.90, Q.80, Q.50, Q.20, and QM on a monthly basis for the months of March through June, and also on an annual basis. For the months of September through January, the RAR regression equations did not provide acceptable results for any long-term streamflow characteristic. For the month of February, the RAR regression equations provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50 and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90, Q.80, and Q.20. For the months of July and August, the RAR provided acceptable results for the long-term Q.50, Q.20, and QM, but poor results for the long-term Q.90 and Q.80. Estimation coefficients were developed for estimating the long-term streamflow characteristics for which the RAR did not provide acceptable results. The RAR also was determined to provide acceptable results for estimating the PK1.5., PK2, and PK2.33 for the three CMR stations that lacked suitable peak-flow records. Methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites also were derived. Regression analyses that relate individual streamflow characteristics to various basin and climatic characteristics for gaging stations were performed to develop regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Final equations for the annual Q.50, Q.20, and QM are reported. Acceptable equations also were developed for estimating QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July, and Q.50, Q.20, and QM on an annual basis. However, equations for QM for the months of February, March, April, June, and July were determined to be less consistent and reliable than the use of estimation coefficients applied to the regression equation results for the annual QM. Acceptable regression equations also were developed for the PK1.5, PK2, and PK2.33.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Travel Times, Streamflow Velocities, and Dispersion Rates in the Yellowstone River, Montana

The Yellowstone River is a vital natural resource to the residents of southeastern Montana and is a primary source of water for irrigation and recreation and the primary source of municipal water for several cities. The Yellowstone River valley is the primary east-west transportation corridor through southern Montana. This complex of infrastructure makes the Yellowstone River especially vulnerable to accidental spills from various sources such as tanker cars and trucks. In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a dye-tracer study to determine instream travel times, streamflow velocities, and dispersion rates for the Yellowstone River from Lockwood to Glendive, Montana. The purpose of this report is to describe the results of this study and summarize data collected at each of the measurement sites between Lockwood and Glendive. This report also compares the results of this study to estimated travel times from a transport model developed by the USGS for a previous study. For this study, Rhodamine WT dye was injected at four locations in late September and early October 2008 during reasonably steady streamflow conditions. Streamflows ranged from 3,490 to 3,770 cubic feet per second upstream from the confluence of the Bighorn River and ranged from 6,520 to 7,570 cubic feet per second downstream from the confluence of the Bighorn River. Mean velocities were calculated for each subreach between measurement sites for the leading edge, peak concentration, centroid, and trailing edge at 10 percent of the peak concentration. Calculated velocities for the centroid of the dye plume for subreaches that were completely laterally mixed ranged from 1.83 to 3.18 ft/s within the study reach from Lockwood Bridge to Glendive Bridge. The mean of the completely mixed centroid velocity for the entire study reach, excluding the subreach between Forsyth Bridge and Cartersville Dam, was 2.80 ft/s. Longitudinal dispersion rates of the dye plume for this study ranged from 0.06 ft/s for the subreach upstream from Forsyth Bridge to 2.25 ft/s for the subreach upstream from Calyspo Bridge for subreaches where the dye was completely laterally mixed. A relation was determined between travel time of the peak concentration and time for the dye plume to pass a site (duration). This relation can be used to estimate when the receding concentration of a potential contaminant reaches 10 percent of its peak concentration for accidental spills into the Yellowstone River. Data from this dye-tracer study were used to evaluate velocity and concentration estimates from a transport model developed as part of an earlier USGS study. Comparison of the estimated and calculated velocities for the study reach indicate that the transport model estimates the velocities of the Yellowstone River between Huntley Bridge and Glendive Bridge with reasonable accuracy. Velocities of the peak concentration of the dye plume calculated for this study averaged 10 percent faster than the most probable velocities and averaged 12 percent slower than the maximum probable velocities estimated from the transport model. Peak Rhodamine WT dye concentrations were consistently lower than the transport model estimates except for the most upstream subreach of each dye injection. The most upstream subreach of each dye injection is expected to have a higher concentration because of incomplete lateral mixing. Lower measured peak concentrations for all other sites were expected because Rhodamine WT dye deteriorates when exposed to sunlight and will sorb onto the streambanks and stream bottom. Velocity-streamflow relations developed by using routine streamflow measurements at USGS gaging stations and the transport model can be used to estimate mean streamflow velocities throughout a range of streamflows. The variation in these velocity-streamflow relations emphasizes the uncertainty in estimating the mean streamflow veloc

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

A computer program for estimating instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River, Montana

The Yellowstone River is very important in a variety of ways to the residents of southeastern Montana; however, it is especially vulnerable to spilled contaminants. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a study to develop a computer program to rapidly estimate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River using regression equations developed in 1999 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The purpose of this report is to describe these equations and their limitations, describe the development of a computer program to apply the equations to the Yellowstone River, and provide detailed instructions on how to use the program. This program is available online at [http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2006-5057/includes/ytot.xls]. The regression equations provide estimates of instream travel times and concentrations in rivers where little or no contaminant-transport data are available. Equations were developed and presented for the most probable flow velocity and the maximum probable flow velocity. These velocity estimates can then be used to calculate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant. The computer program was developed so estimation equations for instream travel times and concentrations can be solved quickly for sites along the Yellowstone River between Corwin Springs and Sidney, Montana. The basic types of data needed to run the program are spill data, streamflow data, and data for locations of interest along the Yellowstone River. Data output from the program includes spill location, river mileage at specified locations, instantaneous discharge, mean-annual discharge, drainage area, and channel slope. Travel times and concentrations are provided for estimates of the most probable velocity of the peak concentration and the maximum probable velocity of the peak concentration. Verification of estimates of instream travel times and concentrations for the Yellowstone River requires information about the flow velocity throughout the 520 mi of river in the study area. Dye-tracer studies would provide the best data about flow velocities and would provide the best verification of instream travel times and concentrations estimated from this computer program; however, data from such studies does not currently (2006) exist and new studies would be expensive and time-consuming. An alternative approach used in this study for verification of instream travel times is based on the use of flood-wave velocities determined from recorded streamflow hydrographs at selected mainstem streamflow-gaging stations along the Yellowstone River. The ratios of flood-wave velocity to the most probable velocity for the base flow estimated from the computer program are within the accepted range of 2.5 to 4.0 and indicate that flow velocities estimated from the computer program are reasonable for the Yellowstone River. The ratios of flood-wave velocity to the maximum probable velocity are within a range of 1.9 to 2.8 and indicate that the maximum probable flow velocities estimated from the computer program, which corresponds to the shortest travel times and maximum probable concentrations, are conservative and reasonable for the Yellowstone River.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2005

Statistical summaries of streamflow in Montana and adjacent areas, water years 1900 through 2002

In response to the need to have more current information about streamflow characteristics in Montana, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Montana Department of Environmental Quality, Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes, and Bureau of Land Management, conducted a study to analyze streamflow data. Updated statistical summaries of streamflow characteristics are presented for 286 streamflow-gaging sites in Montana and adjacent areas having 10 or more years of record for water years 1900 through 2002. Data include the magnitude and probability of annual low and high flow, the magnitude and probability of low flow for three seasons (March-June, July-October, and November-February), flow duration of the daily mean discharge, and the monthly and annual mean discharges. For streamflow-gaging stations where 20 percent or more of the contributing drainage basin is affected by dams or other large-scale human modification, streamflow is considered regulated. Separate streamflow characteristics are presented for the unregulated and regulated periods of record for sites with sufficient data.

Scientific Investigations Report↗