Geology topics

Peter M. McCarthy

Publications and source records attributed to Peter M. McCarthy.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Streamflow assessment of Birch Creek, southern boundary of the Blackfeet Indian Reservation, Pondera County, northwestern Montana—Synoptic and continuous streamflow measurements through 2022

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Blackfeet Water Department, performed this study to assist water-resource managers in understanding and quantifying irrigation diversions, instream flows, and the spatial and temporal streamflow dynamics of Birch Creek in northwestern Montana. Birch Creek forms the southernmost boundary of the Blackfeet Indian Reservation and is highly valued culturally as an aquatic life and wildlife resource and as a principal source of water for irrigation. The study area included Birch Creek from Swift Dam to 53.3 miles downstream just above its confluence with the Two Medicine River. The study period was calendar year 2022, but selected historical information was also included in the study. Birch Creek streamflow originates through releases from Swift Reservoir, with the largest releases typically occurring during the irrigation season (May–October) to primarily meet the needs of downstream irrigators. This study included the compilation and collection of (1) continuous streamflow measured at streamgages installed for this study, (2) instantaneous streamflow measurements made during four synoptic events, and (3) reported daily values of Swift Reservoir outflow and irrigation diversions. Continuous streamflow data were available from two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages: Birch Creek below Heart Butte Road, near Heart Butte, Montana (upper streamgage; station 06094900), at river mile 12.9 and Birch Creek at Bullhead Bridge near Valier, Mont. (lower streamgage; station 06098120), at river mile 53.3. The upper streamgage (station 06094900) was primarily affected by the regulated releases from Swift Dam with daily mean streamflow typically slightly higher than the reported Swift Reservoir outflows. Daily mean streamflow ranged from 9.87 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) (November 18, 2022) to 640 ft 3 /s (June 22, 2022) during September 16, 2021–December 31, 2022. The mean annual streamflow was 122 ft 3 /s in water year 2022 (a water year is the 12-month period from October 1 to September 30 and is designated by the year in which it ends), about 13 percent greater than the mean annual reported Swift Reservoir outflows. The lower streamgage (station 06098120) was downstream from all major tributaries and diversions within the Birch Creek drainage basin. Daily mean streamflow ranged from 6.02 ft 3 /s (September 8, 2022) to 95.0 ft 3 /s (June 5, 2021) during August 26, 2020–December 31, 2022. Mean annual streamflow was 27.8 ft 3 /s for water year 2022. Flows at the lower streamgage (station 06098120) were typically lower than at the upper streamgage (station 06094900) from late April to early October, whereas flows from early October to late spring were similar to or greater than those at the upper streamgage. The upper streamgage had a total streamflow volume of 87,960 acre-feet (acre-ft) for water year 2022, whereas the lower streamgage had a total streamflow of 20,357 acre-ft. A net volume of about 67,603 acre-ft was removed from Birch Creek through diversions, losses to groundwater, and evapotranspiration along that reach during water year 2022. Most of the changes in main-stem streamflow could be accounted for by the tributary inflows or diversion outflows. The most dynamic streamflow gains and losses occurred along the upper few miles of Birch Creek. Streamflow was consistently lost to the groundwater system immediately below Swift Dam and then returned to levels that slightly exceeded the outflow at the dam near river mile 11.0. The overall net gains for the entire 53.3-mile study reach ranged from 15.5 to 42.6 ft 3 /s among the synoptic events. On several occasions, streamflow fell below minimum instream flow conditions specified in the Blackfeet Compact (water rights compact among the Blackfeet Tribe, State of Montana, and United States), which are subject to a 15-year deferral period (until June 12, 2033). Notably, a section of Birch Creek immediately downstream from Swift Dam was completely dry during the October 18, 2022, synoptic event.

Montana↗

USGS2024

StreamStats—A quarter century of delivering web-based geospatial and hydrologic information to the public, and lessons learned

StreamStats is a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) web application that provides streamflow statistics, such as the 1-percent annual exceedance probability peak flow, the mean flow, and the 7-day, 10-year low flow, to the public through a map-based user interface. These statistics are used in many ways, such as in the design of roads, bridges, and other structures; in delineation of floodplains for land-use zoning and setting of insurance rates; for regulatory purposes, such as the permitting of wastewater discharges; and for hydrologic and climate change studies. StreamStats was first developed for Massachusetts and released in 2001. The application provided users with the ability to obtain streamflow statistics computed from data collected at USGS streamgages and to obtain estimates of streamflow statistics for user-selected ungaged sites. Massachusetts StreamStats used geographic information system software and digital mapping to compute drainage-basin characteristics, which were then used in statistical models to estimate streamflow statistics for the user-selected sites. The statistical models were in the form of equations that were developed through a process known as regression analysis. StreamStats was the first known web application with the ability to do interactive geoprocessing. The utility of Massachusetts StreamStats was instantly apparent, leading the USGS to develop a version of StreamStats that could be implemented nationally. USGS State offices normally were required to develop custom regression equations and prepare local digital mapping data needed for implementing StreamStats for their States. Funding needed to complete this work usually was provided through cooperative agreements between the USGS and State agencies. In 2004, Idaho became the first to be released in the national version of StreamStats. By 2023, 44 States were fully implemented and six were undergoing implementation. StreamStats has undergone many modifications over the years to keep up with changes to the underlying software and to add functionality. Customized functionality and separate linked StreamStats applications were developed for several States. Meeting the high demand for additions and improvements to StreamStats while also adhering to budgetary constraints has, at times, been challenging. The StreamStats development team has identified numerous additional improvements that could be made to provide better performance and more functionality. The lessons learned from the experience of building and operating StreamStats for nearly 25 years could be relevant to others interested in pursuing efforts of a similar scale.

Circular↗

USGS2022

Controlling skewness in MOVE3 peak-flow record extensions

Streamgage record extension methods such as the maintenance of variance Type 3 (MOVE3) method improve flood frequency estimates at a target streamgage by incorporating information from a nearby, hydrologically similar index streamgage. Bulletin 17C recommends using a variation of the MOVE3 method to estimate values at the target streamgage for only a subset of the available data at the index streamgage to account for uncertainty in values estimated using MOVE3. Bulletin 17C recommends the most recent index streamgage data be used for the subset unless these data misrepresent the skewness of the extended record. However, no method is provided to select the subset if the most recent data are inappropriate. The objective of this study is to develop such a method to select the subset of peaks by extending Bulletin 17C’s MOVE3 methodology to control the skewness of the extended streamgage record. The new method allows the extended record skewness to be informed by all available peak-flow data at the index streamgage while accurately computing the variance and resulting confidence intervals for flood frequency estimates. An example is presented comparing three different variations of MOVE3 record extension, which produce extended streamgage records with the same mean and variance, but different values of skewness. In the example, the difference in skewness between the three methods causes the results of flood frequency analysis for the 1% annual exceedance probability flood to differ by about 15%, illustrating the importance of considering skewness when using MOVE3 record extension.

Journal of Hydrologic Engineering↗

USGS2018

Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis and reporting for streamgages in or near Montana based on data through water year 2015

This report documents the methods for peak-flow frequency (hereinafter “frequency”) analysis and reporting for streamgages in and near Montana following implementation of the Bulletin 17C guidelines. The methods are used to provide estimates of peak-flow quantiles for 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for selected streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center (WY–MT WSC). These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Standard procedures specific to the WY–MT WSC for implementing the Bulletin 17C guidelines include (1) the use of the Expected Moments Algorithm analysis for fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution, incorporating historical information where applicable; (2) the use of weighted skew coefficients (based on weighting at-site station skew coefficients with generalized skew coefficients from the Bulletin 17B national skew map); and (3) the use of the Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test for identifying potentially influential low flows. For some streamgages, the peak-flow records are not well represented by the standard procedures and require user-specified adjustments informed by hydrologic judgement. The specific characteristics of peak-flow records addressed by the informed-user adjustments include (1) regulated peak-flow records, (2) atypical upper-tail peak-flow records, and (3) atypical lower-tail peak-flow records. In all cases, the informed-user adjustments use the Expected Moments Algorithm fit of the log-Pearson Type III distribution using the at-site station skew coefficient, a manual potentially influential low flow threshold, or both. Appropriate methods can be applied to at-site frequency estimates to provide improved representation of long-term hydroclimatic conditions. The methods for improving at-site frequency estimates by weighting with regional regression equations and by Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III record extension are described. Frequency analyses were conducted for 99 example streamgages to indicate various aspects of the frequency- analysis methods described in this report. The frequency analyses and results for the example streamgages are presented in a separate data release associated with this report consisting of tables and graphical plots that are structured to include information concerning the interpretive decisions involved in the frequency analyses. Further, the separate data release includes the input files to the PeakFQ program, version 7.1, including the peak-flow data file and the analysis specification file that were used in the peak-flow frequency analyses. Peak-flow frequencies are also reported in separate data releases for selected streamgages in the Beaverhead River and Clark Fork Basins and also for selected streamgages in the Ruby, Jefferson, and Madison River Basins.

Montana↗