Geology topics

Peter C. Frederick

Publications and source records attributed to Peter C. Frederick.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

Structured decision making to prioritize regional bird monitoring needs

Conservation planning for large ecosystems has multiple benefits but is often challenging to implement because of the multiple jurisdictions, species, and habitats involved. In addition, decision making at large spatial scales can be hampered because many approaches do not explicitly incorporate potentially competing values and concerns of stakeholders. After the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, establishing baselines was challenging because of (1) variation in study designs, (2) inconsistent use of explicit objectives and hypotheses, (3) inconsistent use of standardized monitoring protocols, and (4) variation in spatial and temporal scope associated with avian monitoring projects before the spill. Herein, we show how the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network members used structured decision making to identify bird monitoring priorities. We used multiple tools and techniques to clearly define the problem and stakeholder objectives and to identify bird monitoring priorities at the scale of the entire northern Gulf of Mexico region. Although our example is specific to the northern Gulf of Mexico, this approach provides an example of how stakeholder values can be incorporated into the coordination process of broad-scale monitoring programs to address management, restoration, and scientific questions in other ecosystems and for other taxa.

INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics↗

USGS2021

Structured decision making and optimal bird monitoring in the northern Gulf of Mexico

The avian conservation community struggles to design and implement large scale, long-term coordinated bird monitoring programs within the northern Gulf of Mexico due to the complexity of the conservation enterprise in the region; this complexity arises from the diverse stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions, complex ecological processes, myriad habitats, and over 500 species of birds using the region for at least some part of their annual cycle. In addition, long-term monitoring over large spatial scales is difficult because of the need for monitoring data to both (1) evaluate management and restoration outcomes, and (2) provide reliable information about the status and trends of bird populations over time. To address these challenges, the Gulf of Mexico Avian Monitoring Network developed a problem statement: “How can a cost-effective monitoring strategy for the Gulf Coast bird community and ecosystem be developed that evaluates ongoing conservation activities and chronic and acute threats; maximizes learning; and is flexible and holistic enough to detect novel ecological threats and evaluate new and emerging conservation activities?” A structured decision-making framework was then used to articulate and quantify stakeholder values related to the problem statement. One use of the stakeholder values was to develop a regional, strategic plan for bird monitoring, which is presented elsewhere. A formal and complete decision support tool for conservation investments in monitoring and research guided by the stakeholder values is presented in this report. The technical aspects of the stakeholder value model and a portfolio analysis that could be used to guide decision making when allocating resources for monitoring activities is described. Whereas the decision analysis presented here could be useful to any decision maker faced with difficult choices about resource allocation, it is designed for decision makers who request monitoring study proposals and then determine which combination of proposals to fund. The portfolio decision support tool is designed to help funding agencies and organizations identify resource allocation strategies to maximize stated objectives. To begin the decision analysis, an objectives hierarchy and quantitative performance metrics from the values of the Gulf of Mexico bird conservation community were created by a panel of regional stakeholders. Each fundamental objective and sub-objective in the hierarchy is composed of several performance metrics. To test the decision support tool, the authors evaluated a combination of monitoring study proposals written for the region and simulated proposals. Each proposal was scored against the performance metrics and used multi-attribute utility theory to combine the multiple objectives into a measure of total monitoring benefit. The total monitoring benefit and costs of each proposal were then used in a constrained optimization routine to identify optimal monitoring portfolios, that is, a combination of activities that maximizes monitoring benefits while meeting cost and other constraints of interest to stakeholders. A graphical solution based on the concept of Pareto efficiency, which is useful in situations when cost constraints and exact budgets are not known, is also provided. Finally, an evaluation of the sensitivity of the decision-making framework to the weights assigned to objectives by stakeholders is included. This decision support tool allows decision makers to identify an optimal suite of monitoring proposals with a transparent portfolio analysis that includes user-defined constraints (such as costs).

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗

USGS2020

Analysis of movement recursions to detect reproductive events and estimate their fate in central place foragers

Recursive movement patterns have been used to detect behavioral structure within individual movement trajectories in the context of foraging ecology, home-ranging behavior, and predator avoidance. Some animals exhibit movement recursions to locations that are tied to reproductive functions, including nests and dens; while existing literature recognizes that, no method is currently available to explicitly target different types of revisited locations. Moreover, the temporal persistence of recursive movements to a breeding location can carry information regarding the fate of breeding attempts, but it has never been used as a metric to quantify recursive movement patterns. Here, we introduce a method to locate breeding attempts and estimate their fate from GPStracking data of central place foragers. We tested the performance of our method in three bird species differing in breeding ecology (wood stork (Mycteria americana), lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni), Mediterranean gull (Ichthyaetus melanocephalus)) and implemented it in the R package ‘nestR’. Methods: We identified breeding sites based on the analysis of recursive movements within individual tracks. Using trajectories with known breeding attempts, we estimated a set of species-specific criteria for the identification of nest sites, which we further validated using non-reproductive individuals as controls. We then estimated individual nest survival as a binary measure of reproductive fate (success, corresponding to fledging of at least one chick, or failure) from nest-site revisitation histories during breeding attempts, using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach that accounted for temporally variable revisitation patterns, probability of visit detection, and missing data. Results: Across the three species, positive predictive value of the nest-site detection algorithm varied between 87 and 100% and sensitivity between 88 and 92%, and we correctly estimated the fate of 86–100% breeding attempts.

Movement Ecology↗

USGS2019

Environmental DNA sampling reveals high occupancy rates of invasive Burmese pythons at wading bird breeding aggregations in the central Everglades

The Burmese python ( Python bivittatus ) is now established as a breeding population throughout south Florida, USA. However, the extent of the invasion, and the ecological impacts of this novel apex predator on animal communities are incompletely known, in large part because Burmese pythons (hereafter “pythons”) are extremely cryptic and there has been no efficient way to detect them. Pythons are recently confirmed nest predators of long-legged wading bird breeding colonies (orders Ciconiiformes and Pelecaniformes). Pythons can consume large quantities of prey and may not be recognized as predators by wading birds, therefore they could be a particular threat to colonies. To quantify python occupancy rates at tree islands where wading birds breed, we utilized environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis—a genetic tool which detects shed DNA in water samples and provides high detection probabilities. We fitted multi-scale Bayesian occupancy models to test the prediction that pythons occupy islands with wading bird colonies at higher rates compared to representative control islands containing no breeding birds. Our results suggest that pythons are widely distributed across the central Everglades in proximity to active wading bird colonies. In support of our prediction that pythons are attracted to colonies, site-level python eDNA occupancy rates were higher at wading bird colonies (ψ = 0.88, 95% credible interval [0.59–1.00]) than at the control islands (ψ = 0.42 [0.16–0.80]) in April through June (n = 15 colony-control pairs). We found our water temperature proxy (time of day) to be informative of detection probability, in accordance with other studies demonstrating an effect of temperature on eDNA degradation in occupied samples. Individual sample concentrations ranged from 0.26 to 38.29 copies/μL and we generally detected higher concentrations of python eDNA in colony sites. Continued monitoring of wading bird colonies is warranted to determine the effect pythons are having on populations and investigate putative management activities.

Florida↗