Geology topics

Peder S. Engelstad

Publications and source records attributed to Peder S. Engelstad.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

A site prioritization tool for invasive species management: Integrating diverse spatial data to improve decision making

Resource managers are tasked with protecting natural areas from invasive species with limited resources. Further, invasive management goals can vary greatly based on different management priorities specific to management agencies or taxa of interest. The site prioritization tool for invasive species management addresses these challenges by creating a platform to view and combine diverse spatial data layers to estimate cumulative invasion risk based on user-specific needs. For this tool, we developed a human transport risk layer, estimating invasion risk based on proximity to human population centers and transportation corridors, and created maps of non-native species richness across the conterminous United States. The tool also includes spatial layers showing projected changes in key climate variables through the end of the century to identify areas where invasion risk may shift. Users can explore these layers to prioritize sites based on the invasive taxa of interest, likely invasion pathways, and disturbances that may elevate invasion risk. This interactive tool will allow managers to make the spatial comparisons needed to focus efforts on areas that are highly susceptible to invasion and efficiently target monitoring and suppression efforts.

Ecological Informatics↗

USGS2023

Shifting hotspots: Climate change projected to drive contractions and expansions of invasive plant abundance habitats

Aim Preventing the spread of range-shifting invasive species is a top priority for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Invasive plants become abundant and cause negative impacts in only a fraction of their introduced ranges, yet projections of invasion risk are almost exclusively derived from models built using all non-native occurrences and neglect abundance information. Location Eastern USA. Methods We compiled abundance records for 144 invasive plant species from five major growth forms. We fit over 600 species distribution models based on occurrences of abundant plant populations, thus projecting which areas in the eastern United States (U.S.) will be most susceptible to invasion under current and +2°C climate change. Results We identified current invasive plant hotspots in the Great Lakes region, mid-Atlantic region, and along the northeast coast of Florida and Georgia, each climatically suitable for abundant populations of over 30 invasive plant species. Under a +2°C climate change scenario, hotspots will shift an average of 213 km, predominantly towards the northeast U.S., where some areas are projected to become suitable for up to 21 new invasive plant species. Range shifting species could exacerbate impacts of up to 40 invasive species projected to sustain populations within existing hotspots. On the other hand, within the eastern U.S., 62% of species will experience decreased suitability for abundant populations with climate change. This trend is consistent across five plant growth forms. Main Conclusions We produced species range maps and state-specific watch lists from these analyses, which can inform proactive regulation, monitoring, and management of invasive plants most likely to cause future ecological impacts. Additionally, areas we identify as becoming less suitable for abundant populations could be prioritized for restoration of climate-adapted native species. This research provides a first comprehensive assessment of risk from abundant plant invasions across the eastern U.S.

Diversity and Distributions↗

USGS2023

BioLake: A first assessment of lake temperature-derived bioclimatic predictors for aquatic invasive species

Aquatic invasive species (AIS) present major ecological and economic challenges globally, endangering ecosystems and human livelihoods. Managers and policy makers thus need tools to predict invasion risk and prioritize species and areas of concern, and they often use native range climate matching to determine whether a species could persist in a new location. However, climate matching for AIS often relies on air temperature rather than water temperature due to a lack of global water temperature data layers, and predictive power of models is seldom evaluated. We developed 12 global lake (water) temperature-derived “BioLake” bioclimatic layers for distribution modeling of aquatic species and compared “climatch” climate matching predictions (from climatchR package) from BioLake with those based on BioClim temperature layers and with a null model. We did this for 73 established AIS in the United States, training the models on their ranges outside of the United States and Canada. Models using either set of climate layers outperformed the null expectation by a similar (but modest) amount on average, but some species were occasionally found in locations with low climatch scores. Mean US climatch scores were higher for most species when using air temperature. Including additional climate layers in models reduced mean climatch scores, indicating that commonly used climatch score thresholds are not absolute but can be context specific and may require calibration based upon climate data used. Although finer resolution global lake temperature data would likely improve predictions, our BioLake layers provide a starting point for aquatic species distribution modeling. Climate matching was most effective for some species that originated at low latitudes or had small ranges. Climatch scores remain useful but limited for predicting AIS risk, perhaps because current ranges seldom fully reflect climatic tolerances (fundamental niches). Managers could consider climate matching as one of a suite of tools that can be used in AIS prioritization.

Ecosphere↗