Geology topics

Paul S. Earle

Publications and source records attributed to Paul S. Earle.

44 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2010

Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

Book chapter↗

USGS2009

Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER): A System for Rapidly Determining the Impact of Earthquakes Worldwide

Within minutes of a significant earthquake anywhere on the globe, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system assesses its potential societal impact. PAGER automatically estimates the number of people exposed to severe ground shaking and the shaking intensity at affected cities. Accompanying maps of the epicentral region show the population distribution and estimated ground-shaking intensity. A regionally specific comment describes the inferred vulnerability of the regional building inventory and, when available, lists recent nearby earthquakes and their effects. PAGER's results are posted on the USGS Earthquake Program Web site (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/), consolidated in a concise one-page report, and sent in near real-time to emergency responders, government agencies, and the media. Both rapid and accurate results are obtained through manual and automatic updates of PAGER's content in the hours following significant earthquakes. These updates incorporate the most recent estimates of earthquake location, magnitude, faulting geometry, and first-hand accounts of shaking. PAGER relies on a rich set of earthquake analysis and assessment tools operated by the USGS and contributing Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) regional networks. A focused research effort is underway to extend PAGER's near real-time capabilities beyond population exposure to quantitative estimates of fatalities, injuries, and displaced population.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

An atlas of ShakeMaps for selected global earthquakes

An atlas of maps of peak ground motions and intensity 'ShakeMaps' has been developed for almost 5,000 recent and historical global earthquakes. These maps are produced using established ShakeMap methodology (Wald and others, 1999c; Wald and others, 2005) and constraints from macroseismic intensity data, instrumental ground motions, regional topographically-based site amplifications, and published earthquake-rupture models. Applying the ShakeMap methodology allows a consistent approach to combine point observations with ground-motion predictions to produce descriptions of peak ground motions and intensity for each event. We also calculate an estimated ground-motion uncertainty grid for each earthquake. The Atlas of ShakeMaps provides a consistent and quantitative description of the distribution and intensity of shaking for recent global earthquakes (1973-2007) as well as selected historic events. As such, the Atlas was developed specifically for calibrating global earthquake loss estimation methodologies to be used in the U.S. Geological Survey Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) Project. PAGER will employ these loss models to rapidly estimate the impact of global earthquakes as part of the USGS National Earthquake Information Center's earthquake-response protocol. The development of the Atlas of ShakeMaps has also led to several key improvements to the Global ShakeMap system. The key upgrades include: addition of uncertainties in the ground motion mapping, introduction of modern ground-motion prediction equations, improved estimates of global seismic-site conditions (VS30), and improved definition of stable continental region polygons. Finally, we have merged all of the ShakeMaps in the Atlas to provide a global perspective of earthquake ground shaking for the past 35 years, allowing comparison with probabilistic hazard maps. The online Atlas and supporting databases can be found at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/shakemap/atlas.php/.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2008

The USGS Earthquake Notification Service (ENS): Customizable notifications of earthquakes around the globe

At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) "Bigquake" system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California, southern California, and the central and eastern United States. ENS is a "one-stop shopping" system that allows Internet users to subscribe to flexible and customizable notifications for earthquakes anywhere in the world. The customization capability allows users to define the what (magnitude threshold), the when (day and night thresholds), and the where (specific regions) for their notifications. Customization is achieved by employing a per-user based request profile, allowing the notifications to be tailored for each individual's requirements. Such earthquake-parameter-specific custom delivery was not possible with simple e-mail list-servers. Now that event and user profiles are in a structured query language (SQL) database, additional flexibility is possible. At the time of this writing, ENS had more than 114,000 subscribers, with more than 200,000 separate user profiles. On a typical day, more than 188,000 messages get sent to a variety of widely distributed users for a wide range of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The purpose of this article is to describe how ENS works, highlight the features it offers, and summarize plans for future developments.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2007

PAGER - Rapid Assessment of an Earthquake's Impact

PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated system to rapidly assess the number of people and regions exposed to severe shaking by an earthquake, and inform emergency responders, government agencies, and the media to the scope of the potential disaster. PAGER monitors the U.S. Geological Survey?s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake detections and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2005

PAGER - Rapid Assessment and Notification of an Earthquake's Impact

PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) is an automated alarm system being developed to rapidly and accurately assess the severity of damage caused by an earthquake and to provide emergency relief organizations, government agencies, and the media with an estimate of the societal impact from the potential catastrophe.

Fact Sheet↗

USGS2004

The global short-period wavefield modelled with a Monte Carlo seismic phonon method

At high frequencies (∼1 Hz), much of the seismic energy arriving at teleseismic distances is not found in the main phases (e.g. P , PP , S , etc.) but is contained in the extended coda that follows these arrivals. This coda results from scattering off small-scale velocity and density perturbations within the crust and mantle and contains valuable information regarding the depth dependence and strength of this heterogeneity as well as the relative importance of intrinsic versus scattering attenuation. Most analyses of seismic coda to date have concentrated on S -wave coda generated from lithospheric scattering for events recorded at local and regional distances. Here, we examine the globally averaged vertical-component, 1-Hz wavefield (>10° range) for earthquakes recorded in the IRIS FARM archive from 1990 to 1999. We apply an envelope-function stacking technique to image the average time–distance behavior of the wavefield for both shallow (≤50 km) and deep (≥500 km) earthquakes. Unlike regional records, our images are dominated by P and P coda owing to the large effect of attenuation on PP and S at high frequencies. Modelling our results is complicated by the need to include a variety of ray paths, the likely contributions of multiple scattering and the possible importance of P -to- S and S -to- P scattering. We adopt a stochastic, particle-based approach in which millions of seismic phonons are randomly sprayed from the source and tracked through the Earth. Each phonon represents an energy packet that travels along the appropriate ray path until it is affected by a discontinuity or a scatterer. Discontinuities are modelled by treating the energy normalized reflection and transmission coefficients as probabilities. Scattering probabilities and scattering angles are computed in a similar fashion, assuming random velocity and density perturbations characterized by an exponential autocorrelation function. Intrinsic attenuation is included by reducing the energy contained in each particle as an appropriate function of traveltime. We find that most scattering occurs in the lithosphere and upper mantle, as previous results have indicated, but that some lower-mantle scattering is likely also required. A model with 3 to 4 per cent rms velocity heterogeneity at 4-km scale length in the upper mantle and 0.5 per cent rms velocity heterogeneity at 8-km scale length in the lower mantle (with intrinsic attenuation of Q α = 450 above 200 km depth and Q α = 2500 below 200 km) provides a reasonable fit to both the shallow- and deep-earthquake observations, although many trade-offs exist between the scale length, depth extent and strength of the heterogeneity.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS1998

Mantle discontinuities under southern Africa from precursors to P′ P′ df

We investigate the reflection properties of upper-mantle discontinuities beneath southern Africa using precursors to the df branch of PKPPKP ( P′ P′ ). The P′ P′ df branch is weaker than the ab and bc branches, but it does not have the complication of a caustic and appears across a wider distance range. Stacks from hundreds of short-period seismograms recorded in California from the March 9, 1994 Tonga earthquake ( M w = 7.6) show an &sim;5% reflection (at 3.5 s dominate period) from 660-km depth indicating a sharp “660” under southern Africa. A 3.5 s period reflection from 410-km depth is also visible in these stacks, but only &sim;2% the strength of P′ P′ df . This result contrasts with the observation of the “410” and the “660” reflecting comparable amounts of high-frequency energy under the Indian Ocean [ Benz and Vidale , 1993a], indicating either a diffuse “410” boundary under southern Africa or global variations in the impedance change across the “410”. A 1.5 s period reflection may indicate the existence of fine-scale heterogeneity near 320-km depth. Reflectivity synthetic seismograms also show that a previously claimed reflection from 785-km depth has the more likely explanation as PcPPKP .

Geophysical Research Letters↗