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Paul R. Lundgren

Publications and source records attributed to Paul R. Lundgren.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

Lava flow emplacement dynamics during the Mauna Loa 2022 eruption

On November 27, 2022, Mauna Loa erupted for the first time in 38 years, threatening a major highway on the Island of Hawaiʻi. The opening phases of the eruption were focused at the volcano’s summit, before magma propagated into the upper Northeast Rift Zone to erupt at four fissure segments that localized at fissure 3 by December 2. This fissure produced a braided ʻaʻā flow that traversed the steep north flank at >1 km/hr, before slowing as slopes shallowed. Effusion rates peaked in the early hours of the eruption and then steadied at around 100 m3/s at fissure 3. Lava effusion became variable and dropped abruptly on December 7. The eruption ended on December 10 with a final flow length of 18 km. We tracked lava effusion rates, flow advance, channel dynamics, and 3-D flow field development with field and remote sensing observations throughout this eruption to inform lava flow forecasts and investigate ʻaʻā flow dynamics. Flows were mapped using optical and infrared imagery, uncrewed aircraft systems, and airborne single-pass InSAR. Video- and time-lapse cameras were deployed to record lava fountaining and channelized flow at frequent intervals, supplemented by field measurements. Analyses of these data built a detailed record of effusion rates and associated flow dynamics. We combine these high frequency observations of the proximal flow field with broader thermal and 3-D mapping of the evolution in the medial and distal flow field to examine ʻaʻā flow dynamics from source to toe. Within the steep, medial section of the flow field, channel blockages caused back-ups and overflows as the eruption progressed. Disrupted lava supply to the distal flow field and low slopes resulted in stalling, widening, and thickening at the toe. Overall, 142 million m3 of lava covered 36 km2 over 13 days. Our results inform the controls on development and evolution of lava flow fields, with implications for forecasting primary flow advance and secondary flow field growth.

Hawaii

Lava effusion rate evolution and erupted volume during the 2018 Kīlauea lower East Rift Zone eruption

The 2018 eruption on the lower East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano produced one of the largest and most destructive lava flows in Hawai’i during the past 200 years. Over the course of more than 3 months, twenty-four fissures erupted, and the rate of lava effusion varied by two orders of magnitude, with significant implications for evolving flow behavior and hazards. Syn-eruptive data were collected to quantify these changes in lava effusion rate, including video of flow through channels and digital elevation models acquired using small unoccupied aircraft systems, airborne lidar, and airborne single-pass interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Topographic data through time allowed calculation of subaerial lava flow volume and time-averaged discharge rate over the course of the eruption, which we integrated with pre- and post-eruption bathymetric surveys. Repeat videos of the near-vent channel were analyzed with particle velocimetry to extract flow velocities, and these were combined with open channel flow theory to calculate a time series of instantaneous effusion rates. Results show a general increase in dense rock equivalent (DRE) effusion rate from ~7 to ~100 m 3 /s from early to late May for the whole flow field and ≥ 200 m 3 /s by mid-June after the eruption had focused at a primary vent. By the end of the eruption in August, 0.9–1.4 km 3 DRE of lava had erupted, with 0.4 km 3 deposited on land and at least 0.5 km 3 offshore. The trends in effusion rate through time reflect magmatic processes in the connected summit and rift zone system that controlled eruption rate, with resulting implications for lava flow dynamics and hazards.

Hawaii

Using conceptual models to relate multiparameter satellite data to subsurface volcanic processes in Latin America

Satellite data have been extensively used to identify volcanic behavior. However, the physical subsurface processes causing any individual manifestation of activity can be ambiguous. We propose a classification scheme for the cause of unrest that simultaneously considers three multiparameter satellite observations. The scheme is based on characteristics of the volcanic system (open, closed, and eruptive) and unrest mechanisms (intrusion, evolution, and withdrawal) occurring at shallow depths in the volcanic system. We applied these models to satellite observations acquired at 47 of the most active volcanoes in Latin America. Of the volcanoes studied, 44 had a robust enough dataset for classification and were clustered into 4 groups and 10 subgroups with common behavioral characteristics. By identifying that these volcanoes can be clustered into a number of groupings significantly less than the number of volcanoes, we have demonstrated that commonalities in behavior patterns exist among diverse volcanic systems. Identifying volcanoes with similar characteristics underpins the use of past observations at one volcano to forecast activity at another and diverges from typical volcanic groupings, which are focused on geologic parameters (i.e., composition, volcano type, and tectonic setting). Based on satellite data alone, we have identified preeruptive intrusion prior to 15 eruptions at 12 different volcanoes, magma evolution prior to 18 eruptions at 13 volcanoes, and magma withdrawal at 3 eruptions and 3 volcanoes. Improvements to the spatial and temporal resolution are needed to make these relations robust. This classification scheme provides a framework for future automated clustering of volcanoes.

Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano

In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 km. A 4 May earthquake (M6.9) produced ~5 m of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 m3/s, eventually covering 35.5 km2. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M4.7-M5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent--about 0.8 km3. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

Hawaii

TerraSAR-X interferometry reveals small-scale deformation associated with the summit eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

On 19 March 2008, a small explosive eruption at the summit of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, heralded the formation of a new vent along the east wall of Halema‘uma‘u Crater. In the ensuing years, the vent widened due to collapses of the unstable rim and conduit wall; some collapses impacted an actively circulating lava pond and resulted in small explosive events. We used synthetic aperture radar data collected by the TerraSAR-X satellite, a joint venture between the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and EADS Astrium, to identify and analyze small-scale surface deformation around the new vent during 2008-2012. Lidar data were used to construct a digital elevation model to correct for topographic phase, allowing us to generate differential interferograms with a spatial resolution of about 3 m in Kīlauea's summit area. These interferograms reveal subsidence within about 100 m of the rim of the vent. Small baseline subset time series analysis suggests that the subsidence rate is not constant and, over time, may provide an indication of vent stability and potential for rim and wall collapse -- information with obvious hazard implications. The deformation is not currently detectable by other space- or ground-based techniques.

Hawai'i

Broad accommodation of rift-related extension recorded by dyke intrusion in Saudi Arabia

The extensive harrat lava province of Arabia formed during the past 30 million years in response to Red Sea rifting and mantle upwelling. The area was regarded as seismically quiet, but between April and June 2009 a swarm of more than 30,000 earthquakes struck one of the lava fields in the province, Harrat Lunayyir, northwest Saudi Arabia. Concerned that larger damaging earthquakes might occur, the Saudi Arabian government evacuated 40,000 people from the region. Here we use geologic, geodetic and seismic data to show that the earthquake swarm resulted from magmatic dyke intrusion. We document a surface fault rupture that is 8 km long with 91 cm of offset. Surface deformation is best modelled by the shallow intrusion of a north-west trending dyke that is about 10 km long. Seismic waves generated during the earthquakes exhibit overlapping very low- and high-frequency components. We interpret the low frequencies to represent intrusion of magma and the high frequencies to represent fracturing of the crystalline basement rocks. Rather than extension being accommodated entirely by the central Red Sea rift axis, we suggest that the broad deformation observed in Harrat Lunayyir indicates that rift margins can remain as active sites of extension throughout rifting. Our analyses allowed us to forecast the likelihood of a future eruption or large earthquake in the region and informed the decisions made by the Saudi Arabian government to return the evacuees.

Nature Geoscience