Geology topics

Paul Lukacs

Publications and source records attributed to Paul Lukacs.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

A unified approach to long-term population monitoring of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Long-term wildlife research and monitoring programs strive to maintain consistent data collections and analytical methods. Incorporating new techniques is important but can render data sets incongruent and limit their potential to discern trends in demographic parameters. Integrated population models (IPMs) can address these limitations by combining data sources that may span different periods into a unified statistical framework while providing a holistic view of population dynamics. We developed an IPM in a Bayesian framework for grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We coupled demographic data with multiple, independent population count data to link annual changes in abundance with vital rates over 4 decades (1983–2023). Abundance increased threefold from an estimated 270 individuals in 1984 to 1030 individuals in 2023. Parameter estimates indicated survival of bears ≥2 years of age was high, contributing to robust population growth during the 1980s (λ = 1.023 [50 % interquartile range = 0.993–1.082]) and 1990s (λ = 1.064 [1.023–1.103]). A slowing of population growth started around 2000 (2000s: λ = 1.030 [0.989–1.068]) and continued into the 2010s (λ = 1.021 [0.985–1.057]), due primarily to reductions in survival of bears <2 years of age. These findings corroborate previous research that identified density-dependent effects as a likely cause. The IPM framework provided greater certainty and understanding regarding the dynamic demographic characteristics of the population and serves as a powerful monitoring tool for this long-lived species. Implementation of the IPM allows timely dissemination of demographic data to help inform adaptive management strategies and policy decisions necessary for the continued management and conservation of this population. This robust and flexible monitoring system allows scientists to investigate the effects of a changing ecosystem on population dynamics, incorporate new data sources and statistical models, and respond to changes in monitoring needs for the population. We highlight the efficacy of the IPM in estimating and tracking demographic parameters for a long-lived species, while accommodating shifts in monitoring techniques and data collections typical of long-term wildlife conservation programs worldwide.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

USGS2023

Grizzly bear movement models predict habitat use for nearby populations

Conservation planning and decision-making can be enhanced by ecological models that reliably transfer to times and places beyond those where models were developed. Transferrable models can be especially helpful for species of conservation concern, such as grizzly bears ( Ursus arctos ). Currently, only four grizzly bear populations remain in the contiguous United States. We evaluated transferability of previously derived individual-based, integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem by applying them within the nearby Selkirk (SE), Cabinet-Yaak (CYE), and Greater Yellowstone Ecosystems (GYE). We simulated 100 replicates of 5000 steps for each iSSF in each ecosystem, summarized relative use into 10 equal-area classes for each sex, and overlaid GPS locations from bears in the SE, CYE, and GYE on resulting maps. Spearman rank correlations between numbers of locations and class rank were ≥ 0.96 within each study area, indicating models were highly predictive of grizzly bear space use in these nearby populations. Assessment of models using smaller subsets of data in space and time demonstrated generally high predictive accuracy for females. Although generally high across space and time, predictive accuracy for males was low within some watersheds and in summer within the SE and CYE, potentially due to seasonal effects, vegetation, and food assemblage differences. Altogether, these results demonstrated high transferability of our models to landscapes in the Northern Rocky Mountains, suggesting they may be used to evaluate habitat suitability and connectivity throughout the region to benefit conservation planning.

Idaho, Montana, Washington, Wyoming↗

USGS2018

Stable pack abundance and distribution in a harvested wolf population

Harvesting gray wolves ( Canis lupus ) could affect the abundance and distribution of packs, but the frequency of change in pack occurrence (i.e., turnover) and relative effects of harvest compared to environmental factors is unclear. We used noninvasive genetic sampling, hunter surveys, and occupancy models to evaluate the effect of harvest on occurrence and turnover of packs in a population of wolves managed with intensive harvest in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, 2012–2014. We tested 2 alternative hypotheses: the abundance and distribution of wolf packs were dynamic because of harvest or the abundance and distribution of wolf packs were generally stable regardless of harvest. We found the mean annual probability for wolf pack occupancy ranged 0.72–0.74 and the estimated distribution of wolf packs was consistent over time, 2012–2014. Our top model indicated wolf pack occupancy was positively associated with forest cover and the probability of detecting a wolf pack was positively associated with the intensity of harvest for wolves in that area. We observed frequent turnover of individuals within packs that were genetically sampled consecutive years but not of entire packs. Because turnover of packs occurred infrequently during our study, we could not reject our hypothesis that occurrence of packs was generally stable in a harvested population of wolves. Our results suggest environmental factors have a stronger effect than harvest on the abundance and distribution of wolf packs in southwestern Alberta, but harvest appears to strongly influence turnover of individuals within packs. We hypothesize local dispersal from within the study area and neighboring packs on the periphery of the study area helped promote pack stability. © 2018 The Wildlife Society.

Alberta↗