Geology topics

Paul C. Banko

Publications and source records attributed to Paul C. Banko.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2025

The continued decline of the Palila (Loxioides bailleui) on Mauna Kea, Island of Hawaiʻi

Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seeds and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. Recently, the population was estimated to decline by 89% between 1998 and 2021, despite decades of ungulate removal, fence construction, māmane regeneration, fire suppression, and predator control. To inform managers with the most recent update on the status and trends of the Palila population, we analyzed annual bird survey data collected using point-transect distance sampling since 1998, including new annual survey data from 2022, 2023, and 2024. Prior to analysis, we predicted the population trajectory would change between 2021 and 2024 because of continued management actions promoting habitat recovery. We used distance sampling, log-linear regression, and state-space modeling to produce the new estimates and analyze trends across the time series. The 2022 population estimate was 367 to 742 birds (95% confidence interval; point estimate: 545), the lowest in recorded history. The 2023 and 2024 estimates of 374 to 842 birds (point estimate: 596) and 412 to 970 birds (point estimate: 666) were the second and third lowest in our time series, respectively. Our estimates for years before 2022 show population fluctuations between 4000 to 6800 birds from 1998 to 2005, then a steep decline through 2010. For the next decade, abundance fluctuated around 1000 birds, before declining again in 2021 to less than 700 birds. From 1998 to 2024, the population declined by more than 90%, or 205 birds per year, with 100% statistical support for an overall downward trend, despite significant management efforts and research. The greatest threats facing the Palila, if familiar, are not being eliminated swiftly enough to promote their recovery. The currently small and range-limited population is vulnerable to future climate-related events such as drought and fire. Continued monitoring can help to assess the response of Palila to adaptive management actions and changing environmental conditions.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

Quantifying landscape-level biodiversity change in an island ecosystem: A 50-year assessment of shifts in the Hawaiian avian community

Hawaii has experienced profound declines in native avifauna alongside the introduction of numerous bird species. While site-specific population studies are common, landscape-level analyses of avian population dynamics are rare, particularly in island ecosystems. To address this gap, we used a density surface model to create a spatio-temporal projection of population densities and distributions across the Island of Hawai‘i, spanning nearly five decades (1976–2023). We incorporated environmental covariates of habitat, precipitation, and elevation, to further refine our projections. Our analysis encompassed nine native and six non-native bird species, inhabiting a range of ecological niches. We found five out of nine native species have declined in density and range size while four were stable. For non-native species, two were stable, one was decreasing, and three were increasing in density and range size. Our landscape projections can inform management by suggesting areas critical for habitat preservation and land acquisition for conservation, identifying where range fragmentation is occurring, and pinpointing locations of multi-species declines that are likely driven by a common cause. Our study demonstrates how long-term, landscape-level monitoring and analyses can advance understanding and addressing biodiversity loss, particularly in vulnerable tropical island ecosystems.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

Fine-grained temporal population monitoring of a declining, critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

Annual point counts are commonly used to monitor birds to track population densities across space and time. Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) are surveyed annually in the first quarter, but we recently instituted quarterly sampling that offers a unique opportunity to improve estimator precision. We conducted point-transect distance sampling point counts during the first quarter of 2020 through 2024, and the second through fourth quarters in 2022 and 2023, and the second quarter in 2024. The reduced sampling intensity during the quarterly counts, however, requires model-based methods to estimate abundance to the entire sampling frame. We modeled spatial and temporal correlation using a soap film smoother within a generalized additive modeling framework, a density surface model, fitted to palila counts each quarter for the five-year timeseries to track changes in population abundances. Our results indicate that palila maintained a high-density hotspot throughout the five-year timeseries; however, the extent of the hotspot declined substantially over the timeseries while densities within the hotspot declined from about 3 birds/ha in 2020 to about 1 bird/ha in 2024, which resulted in a 66% decline in palila abundances over 5 years. Density surface model estimates give on average a confidence interval width that was 74.7% shorter than the associated distance sampling confidence interval widths. Our results indicate that palila may benefit most if management actions were applied within the remaining hotspot. Additionally, this temporally fine-grained sampling provides information on seasonal movement patterns and resource tracking, and population response to management and conservation actions. Our spatially explicit, model-based approach is applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs, particularly those with inconsistent, opportunistic spatial coverage.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

Photographic guide to the leaf litter arthropod community of the lowland wet forest ecosystem of the Island of Hawaiʻi

Leaf litter arthropods are important components of the food web in forests, and their presence and diversity can provide information on forest health. There has been very little documentation of the leaf litter arthropods in Hawaiian forest ecosystems. This technical report is a photographic guide to some common arthropods collected from forest leaf litter at the Liko Nā Pilina Hybrid Ecosystems Project study site, a lowland wet forest in Hilo, Island of Hawaiʻi, USA. Leaf litter samples were collected from plots of invaded and experimental restoration communities using two complementary methods (litterbags and quadrats), and arthropods were extracted using Berlese funnels. The field site contained many morphospecies that were rare and locally distributed across plots, and only a few that were very common and widely distributed. The majority of the morphospecies identified were mites. This photoguide is designed to help identify arthropods found in plant litter in Hawaiian lowland forests and it may assist with research and education efforts concerned with the diversity, ecology, or conservation of litter arthropods across the Hawaiian archipelago and other Pacific islands.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

Breaking down Palila decline: Assessing the role of drought and vegetation health in the population loss of an endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper

The Palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), the last member of the once speciose finch-billed Hawaiian honeycreeper clade (Drepanidinae) in the main Hawaiian Islands, faces critical conservation challenges as an endangered species. Understanding the drivers of its decline is essential for effective management. We used additive decomposition models to examine temporal trends in climatic variables (temperature, precipitation, drought) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a vegetation health metric hypothesized to be associated with long-term trends in Palila abundance at landscape (250 m) scales on the Island of Hawai'i. A breakpoint analysis identified 2005–2009 as critical years of Palila decline. Vegetation health metrics at the 250 m scale lined up well both spatially and temporally with trends in Palila declines, with a significant browning from January 2004 to January 2014. Given the strong correlation between vegetation health and drought metrics at the landscape scale (r = 0.75, p < 0.001), NDVI changes appeared driven by drought. To enable the future projection of habitat quality in this area, we explored a stepwise linear regression to explain the variation in MODIS NDVI in recent years. We found that 87 % of the variability in NDVI can be explained by wet season precipitation and vapor pressure deficit from the previous dry season. The model is largely driven by a strong positive correlation between wet season precipitation and NDVI (r = 0.72, adjusted p < 0.001). Areas that maintained a low likelihood of NDVI decline throughout the time series and experienced increases in predicted Palila count represent potential drought microrefugia for the species. This higher elevation microrefugia is likely resilient against decreases in wet season precipitation through supplemental water retention from fog drip. While NDVI rebounded after 2014, Palila have not recovered. Our analysis highlights the importance of trend decomposition for monitoring endangered species with limited rebound potential due to small population dynamics and indicate continued warm, dry conditions may prevent Palila recovery without intervention.

Hawaii↗

USGS2025

2022–2024 Status and trends of the Palila (Loxioides bailleui)

Palila (Loxioides bailleui) are critically endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers specializing on the seedpods of māmane (Sophora chrysophylla) and restricted to Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi. A previous analysis of survey data estimated an 89% population decline between 1998 and 2021. Using the most recent annual survey data from 2022, 2023, and 2024, we report updated annual population estimates and trends since 1998. The 2022 population estimate was 367–742 birds (point estimate: 545); the 2023 population estimate was 374–842 birds (point estimate: 596); and the 2024 population estimate was 412–970 birds (point estimate: 666). Our estimates for survey years prior to 2022 were within the confidence intervals of the estimates from the previous analysis. Our models likewise showed a population fluctuating between 4,000 and 6,800 birds from 1998 to 2005 (except for an unusually low estimate in 2000), and then a steep decline through 2010. For the next decade, palila abundance fluctuated between 776 and 1,346 birds, before declining again in 2021 to 679 birds. From 1998 to 2024, the population declined by >90% or 203 birds/year, with very strong statistical evidence of an overall downward trend.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Reproductive ecology and egg parasitism of the Samoan swallowtail butterfly

We investigated the reproductive ecology and effects of egg parasitism on the Samoan swallowtail butterfly ( Papilio godeffroyi ), which survives only on Tutuila Island, American Samoa, after having disappeared from the much larger islands of Upolu and Savai‘i in independent Samoa. During monthly surveys of its only known host plant, Micromelum minutum , across eight sites in 2013 and 2014, we collected eggs, eggshells, larvae, pupae, and pupal exuviae. Live specimens were reared under laboratory conditions to determine reproductive outcomes, developmental rates, and sex ratios, as well as parasitoid attack frequencies, brood sizes, and sex ratios. Sixty-six of 448 (14.7%) eggs produced larvae, 47 of which became adults. The sex ratio was approximately even overall and within each developmental stage. Eggs were slightly larger on individual host trees and in host tree stands that yielded more eggs per unit of foliage, indicating that ovipositing females responded to some features of host trees and stands. Eggs hatching female or male larvae were similar in size, and the sexes developed at similar rates. A newly described species of parasitoid wasp, Ooencyrtus pitosina (Encyrtidae), emerged from 73.6% of 382 butterfly eggs that failed to hatch in the laboratory (62.7% of 448 eggs overall). Forty-one other eggs contained dead parasitoid larvae. An additional, unidentified Ooencyrtus wasp species emerged from a single P. godeffroyi egg. No parasitoids were reared from P. godeffroyi larvae or pupae. Of 656 P. godeffroyi eggshells collected in the field and examined in the laboratory, 62.2% showed signs of having been parasitized by O. pitosina. There was no evidence that parasitism rates were density-dependent. O. pitosina brood sizes ranged from 1 to 5, with the sex ratio skewed toward females (2.40 F:1.00 M). Larger parasitoid broods were associated with slightly larger host eggs, indicating that female wasps may adjust brood size according to host egg size or that fewer wasp larvae are able to complete development in smaller eggs. Techniques used to rear both P. godeffroyi and O. pitosina in the laboratory could be applied to a captive-rear, wild-release program, which may facilitate reestablishment of the species in Samoa.

Tutuila Island↗

USGS2024

Climatic drought and trophic disruption in an endemic subalpine Hawaiian forest bird

Overexploitation, habitat conversion, and introduced species have caused unprecedented extinctions and heavily degraded native bird populations in island ecosystems. In the Hawaiian Islands, stemming these losses has proven difficult as the highly specialized avifauna are often impacted – among other things – by poorly understood trophic disruptions as well as persistent climatic shifts. Here we investigate these dynamics by examining the trophic positions of 7 different taxa of producers and consumers across the last century in the subalpine māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) forest ecosystem on the island of Hawaiʻi. From museum collections and contemporary sampling, we analyzed the stable nitrogen (δ 15 N) values of producers and consumers to identify trophic and source amino acids and derive trophic enrichment constants specific to this food web. This enables us to reconstruct the diet of the palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a critically endangered finch whose population recently declined 90 %. Our results show that from 1890 to 2006, the palila trophic position declined from 2.6 to 2.2, with cascading implications for its diet. Bayesian mixing model reconstructions indicate that palila trophic position changes likely arose from a 76 % decline (69.3 % to 16.6 % of diet) in the consumption of native moth caterpillars, and a 172 % increase (30.7 % to 83.4 %) in native plants. From the available ecosystem variables, exploratory Bayesian multiple regressions selected surface temperature changes, and the interactions of surface temperatures with drought and caterpillar parasitism as the primary drivers of these trophic changes. Despite the predicted increases of warming and drought, management interventions may build resiliency in this unique island ecosystem.

Hawaii↗

USGS2024

Nihoa and Laysan Island passerines population abundances, trends, and habitat utilization

Nihoa and Laysan Island, part of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, are host to three endangered passerine species—Nihoa finch (Telespiza ultima), Nihoa millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi), and Laysan finch (Telespiza cantans). Using point-transect distance sampling survey records from 2010 to 2022 for Nihoa and 2013 to 2019 for Laysan Island, we estimated the density and abundance of all three species. We also compared densities between habitats for both islands, classifying Nihoa habitat as Eragrostis (grass) or mixed shrub and Laysan Island as open or dense habitat. The population of Nihoa finch remained stable with slight fluctuations among years, with a population size of 6,592 (4,954–8,655) birds for the most recent sampling year, 2022. Laysan finch also remained stable with a total population in both dense and open habitat of 17,657 (11,994–23,320) for the most recent sampling year, 2019. The Nihoa millerbird significantly increased on both Nihoa and Laysan Island with a global population of 1,907 (1,291–2,766) in 2019, the most recent year both islands were sampled. Overall, the populations of these three endangered species were stable or increasing. The increase of Nihoa millerbird on Laysan Island, after being translocated to the island in 2011 and 2012, represents the successful establishment of a second viable population, leading to a decrease in the species’ IUCN extinction risk status (from critically endangered to endangered). Continued population monitoring of these endangered species can help inform future management actions and ensure their preservation into the future.

Hawaii↗

USGS2023

Twenty-five years of change in forest structure and nesting behavior of Hawaiʻi ʻelepaio

Long-term ecological studies are invaluable for detecting changes over time. Forest restoration has been a conservation priority in Hawaiʻi, where invasive species have negatively impacted native bird habitat. During 1993–1994, a study was conducted of Hawaiʻi ʻelepaio ( Chasiempis sandwichensis ) nest site selection and forest composition in mesic montane forest along Mauna Loa Road in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park. We returned to the site and repeated the methods used in the earlier study to record Hawaiʻi ʻelepaio nest site selection (tree species, tree and nest height, and tree girth [diameter at breast height, DBH]) from 2015 to 2017, and measured forest composition (tree density, relative abundance, height, and DBH) in 2019. Three times as many nests were found in ʻaʻaliʻi ( Dodonaea viscosa ) as in koa ( Acacia koa ) in both time periods. Heights of koa and ʻaʻaliʻi did not change, but their DBH increased over time. The relative height of nests in ʻaʻaliʻi trees did not change, but nests in koa were placed higher in the crown during the later study. Overall tree density increased from 1,619 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1,499–1,740) trees/ha to 2,583 (95% CI = 2,176–3,096) trees/ha. Koa relative abundance was 53% of total trees earlier and 45% later, ʻaʻaliʻi remained at 47%, and māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) increased from 0 to 8% over time. Our results indicate that changes in forest composition affect nesting behavior, but in ways that are not necessarily simple or consistent.

Restoration Ecology↗

USGS2023

Ooencyrtus pitosina (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae)–A natural enemy of Samoan swallowtail butterfly Papilio godeffroyi (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae)

A new species of encyrtid wasp, Ooencyrtus pitosina Polaszek, Noyes & Fusu sp. n., (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae: Encyrtinae) is described as a gregarious parasitoid in the eggs of the endemic Samoan swallowtail butterfly Papilio godeffroyi (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) in the Samoan archipelago. It is described here because it is an important natural enemy of this butterfly, and to facilitate identification for future work with this parasitoid and its host.

Tutuila Island↗

USGS2023

Evaluation of replicate sampling using hierarchical spatial modeling of population surveys accounting for imperfect detectability

Effective species management and conservation benefit from knowledge of species distribution and status. Surveys to obtain that information often involve replicate sampling, which increases survey effort and costs. We simultaneously modeled species distribution, abundance and spatial correlation, and compared the uncertainty in replicate abundance estimates of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ) using hierarchical generalized additive models with a soap film smoother that incorporated random effects for visit. Based on survey coverage and detections, we selected the 2017 point-transect distance sampling survey on Mauna Kea, Hawai‘i Island, for our modeling. Our modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detections, control the effects of boundary features, and generate visit-specific density surface maps. We found that visit-specific smooths were nearly identical, indicating that little information was gained from a subsequent visit, and that most of the estimator uncertainty was derived from within-visit variability. Scaling back the palila survey to a single visit would halve the survey effort and logistical costs and increase efficiencies in data management and processing. Changing the sampling protocol warrants careful consideration and our findings may help management and regulatory agencies by maximizing efficiency and minimizing costs of surveying protocols, while providing guidelines on how to best collect information critical to species' conservation.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2023

Reproductive response of the Samoan swallowtail butterfly to variability in host plant and habitat characteristics

The Samoan swallowtail butterfly ( Papilio godeffroyi ) has become restricted to Tutuila Island, American Samoa. Factors driving its extirpation on other islands may be partly due to the availability and suitability of habitat, given the singular association we observed of P. godeffroyi with its host plant, Micromelum minutum. We expected that as a host plant specialist, P. godeffroyi might respond to variation in the physical traits and habitat context of M. minutum , which could help identify conservation opportunities throughout its present and former range. Because the ecology of P. godeffroyi is largely unknown, we conducted systematic surveys during 15 months in 2013 and 2014 on Tutuila to investigate its reproductive response to the physical and phenological variability of individual host trees and to the structural and geographical variability of the stands in which they occurred. We searched foliage for eggs, larvae, and pupae and monitored seasonal trends in herbivory and production of leaves, flowers, and fruits on 117 host trees in 8 rainforest stands, mostly within the National Park of American Samoa (NPSA), starting in March 2013 and ending in August 2014. We observed high variability in butterfly reproductive output between individual trees and stands, due largely to a strong negative relationship between leaf biomass (at both tree and stand levels) and oviposition density (number of eggs per foliar biomass) and frequency (number of eggs per survey). Distribution patterns of larvae and pupae were less distinct but generally followed trends in oviposition. Our findings indicate that the butterfly is reproducing widely across Tutuila and is likely to respond positively to management to increase the availability of small host trees in low-density stands. Thus, the species is a good candidate for conservation management focusing on habitat.

Tutuila Island↗

USGS2023

Land cover differentially affects abundance of common and rare birds

While rare species are vulnerable to global change, large declines in common species (i.e., those with large population sizes, large geographic distributions, and/or that are habitat generalists) also are of conservation concern. Understanding if and how commonness mediates species' responses to global change, including land cover change, can help guide conservation strategies. We explored avian population responses to land cover change along a gradient from common to rare species using avian data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and land cover data from the National Land Cover Database for the conterminous United States. Specifically, we used generalized linear mixed effects models to ask if species' commonness affected the relationship between land cover and counts, using the initial amount of and change in land cover surrounding each North American BBS route from 2001 to 2016. We quantified species' commonness as a continuous metric at the national scale using the logarithm (base 10) of each species' total count across all routes in the conterminous United States in 2001. For our focal 15-year period, we found that higher proportions of initial natural land cover favored (i.e., were correlated with higher) counts of rare but not common species. We also found that commonness mediated how change in human land cover, but not natural land cover, was associated with species' counts at the end of the study period. Increases in developed lands did not favor counts of any species. Increases in agriculture and declines in pasture favored counts of common but not rare species. Our findings show a signal of commonness in how species respond to a major dimension of global change. Evaluating how and why commonness mediates species' responses to land cover change can help managers design conservation portfolios that sustain the spectrum of common to rare species.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2023

Carbon dioxide (CO2) gas and eDNA monitoring as tools for eradicating invasive fish from anchialine pools in Hawai‘i

Invasive fish can profoundly affect communities they invade. In Hawai‘i, invasive fishes have become established in many anchialine pools, threatening the persistence of resident invertebrates, including several endangered species. Tools to eradicate invasive fishes from these pools are lacking. This study tested the efficacy of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas diffused into anchialine pool water as a method to eradicate invasive Mozambique tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus), guppies (Poecilia reticulata), and western mosquitofish (Gambusia affinis). We first conducted aquarium trials to identify how these fishes were affected by elevated CO2 and the concomitant reduction in pH. We then carried out field trials in pools containing these fish in one pool each at two national historical parks on the Island of Hawai‘i during July 2021–January 2022. We also developed environmental DNA (eDNA) protocols to detect fish that may have survived CO2 treatments. The effect of CO2 on fish behavior varied among species; at pH 5.3 (CO2 = 255 mg/L) for tilapia and 5.0 (CO2 = 488 mg/L) for tilapia, guppies, and mosquitofish, all generally lost their ability to swim, showed slow or no gill movement, and altered their position in the water column. No tilapia survived the trials (n = 4 and 6 individuals at pH 5.3 and 5.0, respectively). In contrast, 41.7% (n = 12) of adult guppies and 66.7% (n = 12) of adult mosquitofish survived treatment at pH 5.0. In the field we were unable to reduce anchialine pool water pH below 5.7. Regardless, we were able to eradicate tilapia from one pool over four sequential treatments. Post-treatment eDNA assessments supported visual surveys, confirming our results. We were not able to eradicate guppies and mosquitofish. Results from this study show that CO2 can be an effective tool for eradicating invasive tilapia from anchialine pools, and post-treatment eDNA assessments can provide managers with a method for evaluating the success of eradication efforts.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Density surface and excursion sets modeling as an approach to estimating population densities

Effective species management and conservation require knowledge of species distribution and status. We used point-transect distance sampling surveys of the endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a honeycreeper currently found only on the Island of Hawai'i, USA, to generate robust estimates of total abundance and simultaneously model the distribution, abundance, and spatial correlation of the species as a density surface model (DSM). Point-transect distance sampling is a widely applied method to estimate bird densities accounting for imperfect detection probability. For the DSM we used a generalized additive model framework and soap film smoothers to control the effects of boundary features. This modeling approach allowed us to account for imperfect detection and propagate detection probability uncertainty. We compared the uncertainty in palila abundance estimates using standard point-transect distance sampling to estimates from the DSM. The DSM, accounting for both distance-sampling-derived detection probability variance and the generalized additive model density estimate variance, did not improve population estimator precision; however, it provided insight into the species' distribution, density, and uncertainty. We also applied excursion sets analysis to objectively identify areas where the species occurs in high densities. The 2017 global population of <2,000 individuals was limited to an excursion area of 1,500 ha. Our findings can help management and regulatory agencies by simultaneously mapping a species' distribution and density, improving survey protocols, and providing information important to species conservation.

Hawaii↗

USGS2022

Hypotheses and lessons from a native moth outbreak in a low-diversity, tropical rainforest

Outbreaks of defoliating insects in low-diversity tropical forests occur infrequently but provide valuable insights about outbreak ecology in temperate environments and in general. We investigated an extensive outbreak of the endemic koa moth ( Scotorythra paludicola ), which defoliated endemic koa trees ( Acacia koa ) over a third of their range on Hawai‘i Island during 2013 and 2014. At Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, we observed the dynamics of the outbreak and its effects on host trees, nutrient cycling, and insectivorous consumers in reforestation stands of densely planted koa and in natural forest stands of mixed koa and ‘ōhi‘a ( Metrosideros polymorpha ). Contrary to predictions of the resource concentration hypothesis, caterpillar biomass and defoliation severity were greater in the natural forest sites, where koa density was relatively low. Caterpillars preferentially consumed the most palatable koa foliage type (phyllodes), and koa initially refoliated with the least palatable foliage type (true leaves). Lightly defoliated small trees refoliated more quickly than did heavily defoliated ones but the opposite was true for large trees, which also produced a greater proportion of phyllodes. Mortality was greatest for heavily defoliated small koa. Caterpillar frass caused larger increases in soil nitrogen (N) than phosphorus (P) availability, with the greatest N increases in fine-textured soils. Foliar N increased in alien grasses under koa canopies compared to grasses away from koa and to native woody understory species. Bird activity was influenced by ‘ōhi‘a flower abundance and the severity of koa defoliation; birds switched to outbreaking caterpillar prey, and they gained weight during the outbreak. Bat foraging times decreased during the outbreak, apparently because they became satiated quickly each night. Parasitoid wasps increased with caterpillar abundance but had little influence on outbreak dynamics. Reducing alien grass cover and increasing tree diversity would likely reduce the impacts of insect outbreaks and similar perturbations to native forests.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2022

Status of forest birds on Tinian Island, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, with an emphasis on the Tinian monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae) (Passeriformes; Monarchidae)

Landbird populations on Tinian Island have been periodically surveyed since 1982 to evaluate the status of non-native and native landbirds. We report the results of surveys in 2013 and the observed changes during 31 years in species population trends based on surveys since 1982. A total of 11 native and 3 non-native species were detected during the 2013 survey. Population sizes were estimated using point-transect distance sampling methods, and population trends were assessed using repeated measures analysis of variance for nine forest bird species. In all years, the Rufous Fantail ( Rhipidura rufifrons ) and Bridled White-eye ( Zosterops conspicillatus ) were the most abundant species, whereas the White-throated Ground Dove ( Pampusana xanthonura ) was the least abundant species in 1982, 1996, and 2008, and the Mariana Kingfisher ( Todiramphus albicilla ) was the least abundant in 2013. The less common species numbered in the low thousands included the Mariana Fruit Dove ( Ptilinopus roseicapilla ), White-throated Ground Dove, introduced Philippine Collared Dove ( Streptopelia dusumieri ), Mariana Kingfisher ( Todiramphus albicilla ), and Micronesian Myzomela ( Myzomela rubratra ). The Micronesian Starling ( Aplonis opaca ) and Tinian Monarch ( Monarcha takatsukasae ) were estimated to number in the tens of thousands. The most abundant species were the Rufous Fantail, numbering more than 100,000, and the Bridled White-eye, numbering more than 400,000. The overall trends in abundance between 1982 and 2013 showed an increase in the Mariana Kingfisher, Micronesian Starling, Rufous Fantail, White-throated Ground Dove, and Philippine Collared Dove, while populations were stable for the Bridled White-eye and Tinian Monarch. Declines were seen for the Mariana Fruit Dove and Micronesian Myzomela. These trends matched previous analyses with the exception that Tinian Monarch abundance showed an increase in the 2013 survey.

Tinian Island↗