Paul A. Ferro | Search USGS

USGS2015

H7N9 influenza A virus in turkeys in Minnesota

Introductions of H7 Influenza A virus (IAV) from wild birds into poultry have been documented worldwide, resulting in varying degrees of morbidity and mortality. H7 IAV infection in domestic poultry has served as a source of human infection and disease. We report the detection of H7N9 subtype IAV in Minnesota turkey farms during 2009 and 2011. The full-genome was sequenced from eight isolates as well as the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene segments of H7 and N9 virus subtypes for 108 isolates from North American wild birds between 1986 and 2012. Through maximum likelihood and coalescent phylogenetic analyses, we identified the recent H7 and N9 IAV ancestors of the turkey-origin H7N9 IAV, estimated the time and geographic origin of the ancestral viruses, and determined the relatedness between the 2009 and the 2011 turkey-origin H7N9 IAV. Analyses supported that the 2009 and the 2011 viruses were distantly related genetically, suggesting that the two outbreaks arose from independent introduction events from wild birds. Our findings further support that the 2011 MN turkey-origin H7N9 virus was closely related to H7N9 IAV isolated in poultry in Nebraska during the same year. Although the precise origin of the wild-bird donor of the turkey-origin H7N9 IAV could not be determined, our findings suggest that, for both the NA and HA gene segments, the MN turkey-origin H7N9 viruses were related to viruses circulating in wild birds between 2006 and 2011 in the Mississippi flyway.

Minnesota↗

USGS2013

Simulated tsunami inundation for a range of Cascadia megathrust earthquake scenarios at Bandon, Oregon, USA

Characterizations of tsunami hazards along the Cascadia subduction zone hinge on uncertainties in megathrust rupture models used for simulating tsunami inundation. To explore these uncertainties, we constructed 15 megathrust earthquake scenarios using rupture models that supply the initial conditions for tsunami simulations at Bandon, Oregon. Tsunami inundation varies with the amount and distribution of fault slip assigned to rupture models, including models where slip is partitioned to a splay fault in the accretionary wedge and models that vary the updip limit of slip on a buried fault. Constraints on fault slip come from onshore and offshore paleoseismological evidence. We rank each rupture model using a logic tree that evaluates a model’s consistency with geological and geophysical data. The scenarios provide inputs to a hydrodynamic model, SELFE, used to simulate tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation on unstructured grids with <5–15 m resolution in coastal areas. Tsunami simulations delineate the likelihood that Cascadia tsunamis will exceed mapped inundation lines. Maximum wave elevations at the shoreline varied from ∼4 m to 25 m for earthquakes with 9–44 m slip and Mw 8.7–9.2. Simulated tsunami inundation agrees with sparse deposits left by the A.D. 1700 and older tsunamis. Tsunami simulations for large (22–30 m slip) and medium (14–19 m slip) splay fault scenarios encompass 80%–95% of all inundation scenarios and provide reasonable guidelines for land-use planning and coastal development. The maximum tsunami inundation simulated for the greatest splay fault scenario (36–44 m slip) can help to guide development of local tsunami evacuation zones.

Oregon↗