Geology topics

Patrick R. Lemons

Publications and source records attributed to Patrick R. Lemons.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Estimating Pacific walrus abundance and survival with multievent mark-recapture models

Arctic marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid physical and biological change associated with climate warming and loss of sea ice. Sea ice loss will impact many species through altered spatial and temporal availability of resources. In the Bering and Chukchi Seas, the Pacific walrus Odobenus rosmarus divergens is one species that could be impacted by rapid environmental change, and thus, population assessments are needed to monitor changes in the status of this ecologically and culturally important marine mammal. We conducted a 5 yr genetic mark-recapture study to estimate demographic parameters for the Pacific walrus. We developed a Bayesian multievent mark-recapture model to estimate walrus survival and abundance while accounting for age misclassification. We estimated the probability of juvenile annual survival as 0.63 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.39-0.87) and adult female annual survival as 0.90 (95% CrI: 0.74-1.00). We estimated total abundance as 257 193 (95% CrI: 171 138-366 366). We provide the first estimate of total Pacific walrus abundance since an aerial survey in 2006, which generated a substantially less precise total population size estimate (129 000; 95% CI: 55 000-507 000). The emerging ecosystem state in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas will likely result in a decline in Pacific walrus abundance, but there is substantial uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the anticipated decline. Our demographic estimates provide critical information to evaluate future population trends of this subsistence resource vital to communities that border the Bering and Chukchi Seas in the USA and Russia.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Genetic variation in sea otters (Enhydra lutris) from the North Pacific with relevance to the threatened Southwest Alaska Distinct Population Segment

For the sea otter ( Enhydra lutris ), genetic population structure is an area of research that has not received significant attention, especially in Southwest Alaska where that distinct population segment has been listed as threatened since 2005 pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In this study, 501 samples from 14 locations from Prince William Sound, Alaska to the Commander Islands in Russia were analyzed for variation at 13 microsatellite loci. Our results indicate a high degree of genetic divergence among the 14 locations ( F ST = 0.120) with gene flow conforming to the isolation by distance (IBD) model ( r 2 = 0.491, p < .05). The 14 sampling locations formed six geographic associations in clustering and ordination analyses that likely correspond to remnant population lineages: (1) Southcentral Alaska, (2) Kodiak and North Alaska Peninsula, (3) South Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay, (4) Eastern Aleutian, (5) Western Aleutian, and (6) the Commander Islands. Except for South Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay, these clusters closely agree with previously defined stock and management unit boundaries. Our results reveal significant genetic population structure and are generally congruent with current management strategies for the threatened Southwest Alaska distinct population segment.

Alaska↗

USGS2020

Panmixia in a sea ice-associated marine mammal: evaluating genetic structure of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) at multiple spatial scales

The kin structure of a species at relatively fine spatial scales impacts broad-scale patterns in genetic structure at the population level. However, kin structure rarely has been elucidated for migratory marine mammals. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) exhibits migratory behavior linked to seasonal patterns in sea ice dynamics. Consequently, information on the spatial genetic structure of the subspecies, including kin structure, could aid wildlife managers in designing future studies to evaluate the impacts of sea ice loss on the subspecies. We sampled 8,303 individual walruses over a 5-year period and used 114 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to examine both broad-scale patterns in genetic structure and fine-scale patterns in relatedness. We did not detect any evidence of genetic structure at broad spatial scales, with low F ST values (≤ 0.001) across all pairs of putative aggregations. To evaluate kin structure at fine spatial scales, we defined a walrus group as a cluster of resting individuals that were less than one walrus body length apart. We found weak evidence of kin structure at fine spatial scales, with 3.72% of groups exhibiting mean relatedness values greater than expected by chance, and a significantly higher overall observed mean value of relatedness within groups than expected by chance. Thus, the high spatiotemporal variation in the distribution of resources in the Pacific Arctic environment likely has favored a gregarious social system in Pacific walruses, with unrelated animals forming temporary associations.

Bering Sea↗

USGS2017

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) in a changing Arctic

The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) is a candidate to be listed as an endangered species under United States law, in part, because of climate change‐related concerns. While the population was known to be declining in the 1980s and 1990s, its recent status has not been determined. We developed Bayesian models of walrus population dynamics to assess the population by synthesizing information on population sizes, age structures, reproductive rates, and harvests for 1974–2015. Candidate models allowed for temporal variation in some or all vital rates, as well as density dependence or density independence in reproduction and calf survival. All selected models indicated that the population underwent a multidecade decline, which began moderating in the 1990s, and that annual reproductive rate and natural calf survival rates rose over time in a density‐dependent manner. However, selected models were equivocal regarding whether the natural juvenile survival rate was constant or decreasing over time. Depending on whether juvenile survival decreased after 1998, the population growth rate either increased during 1999–2015 or stabilized at a lesser level of decline than seen in the 1980s. The probability that the population was still declining in 2015 ranged from 45% to 87%.

Marine Mammal Science↗

USGS2016

Accurate recapture identification for genetic mark–recapture studies with error-tolerant likelihood-based match calling and sample clustering

Error-tolerant likelihood-based match calling presents a promising technique to accurately identify recapture events in genetic mark–recapture studies by combining probabilities of latent genotypes and probabilities of observed genotypes, which may contain genotyping errors. Combined with clustering algorithms to group samples into sets of recaptures based upon pairwise match calls, these tools can be used to reconstruct accurate capture histories for mark–recapture modelling. Here, we assess the performance of a recently introduced error-tolerant likelihood-based match-calling model and sample clustering algorithm for genetic mark–recapture studies. We assessed both biallelic (i.e. single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNP) and multiallelic (i.e. microsatellite; MSAT) markers using a combination of simulation analyses and case study data on Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) and fishers ( Pekania pennanti ). A novel two-stage clustering approach is demonstrated for genetic mark–recapture applications. First, repeat captures within a sampling occasion are identified. Subsequently, recaptures across sampling occasions are identified. The likelihood-based matching protocol performed well in simulation trials, demonstrating utility for use in a wide range of genetic mark–recapture studies. Moderately sized SNP (64+) and MSAT (10–15) panels produced accurate match calls for recaptures and accurate non-match calls for samples from closely related individuals in the face of low to moderate genotyping error. Furthermore, matching performance remained stable or increased as the number of genetic markers increased, genotyping error notwithstanding.

Royal Society Open Science↗

USGS2014

A likelihood-based approach for assessment of extra-pair paternity and conspecific brood parasitism in natural populations

Genotypes are frequently used to assess alternative reproductive strategies such as extra-pair paternity and conspecific brood parasitism in wild populations. However, such analyses are vulnerable to genotyping error or molecular artifacts that can bias results. For example, when using multilocus microsatellite data, a mismatch at a single locus, suggesting the offspring was not directly related to its putative parents, can occur quite commonly even when the offspring is truly related. Some recent studies have advocated an ad-hoc rule that offspring must differ at more than one locus in order to conclude that they are not directly related. While this reduces the frequency with which true offspring are identified as not directly related young, it also introduces bias in the opposite direction, wherein not directly related young are categorized as true offspring. More importantly, it ignores the additional information on allele frequencies which would reduce overall bias. In this study, we present a novel technique for assessing extra-pair paternity and conspecific brood parasitism using a likelihood-based approach in a new version of program cervus. We test the suitability of the technique by applying it to a simulated data set and then present an example to demonstrate its influence on the estimation of alternative reproductive strategies.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗

USGS2011

Egg size matching by an intraspecific brood parasite

Avian brood parasitism provides an ideal system with which to understand animal recognition and its affect on fitness. This phenomenon of laying eggs in the nests of other individuals has classically been framed from the perspective of interspecific brood parasitism and host recognition of parasitic eggs. Few examples exist of strategies adopted by intraspecific brood parasites to maximize success of parasitic eggs. Intraspecific brood parasitism within precocial birds can be a risky strategy in that hatch synchrony is essential to reproductive success. Given that egg size is positively correlated with incubation time, parasitic birds would benefit by recognizing and selecting hosts with a similar egg size. Intraspecific brood parasitism is an alternative reproductive strategy in black brant ( Branta bernicla nigricans ), a colonial nesting goose with precocial young. Based on a randomization test, parasitic eggs in this study differed less in size from eggs in their host's nests than did random eggs placed in random nests. Parasitic eggs were remarkably similar in size to hosts’ eggs, differing by <2% of volume on average from host eggs, whereas randomly paired eggs in random nests differed by nearly 8%. The precision with which parasitic brant match the egg size of hosts in our study supports our hypothesis that brant match egg size of hosts, thereby maximizing hatching success of their parasitic eggs.

Behavioral Ecology↗

USGS2003

Den site activity patterns of adult male and female swift foxes, Vulpes velox, in northwestern Texas

Activity of Swift Foxes ( Vulpes velox ) at den sites was studied in northwestern Texas during pup rearing seasons in 2000 and 2001 to determine role of males in parental care. Twenty-four percent of radio-collared females with a potential to breed successfully raised pups to eight weeks of age. We intensively monitored presence and absence of male and female Swift Foxes at two den sites each year. Females were present >2.6 times more at den sites than males during the pup rearing season. Female and male Swift Foxes largely stayed at dens during diurnal hours and were active away from dens during nocturnal and crepuscular hours. Females and males spent 12.4% and 3.0% more time at dens before pups emerged, than after pups emerged, respectively. Following depredation of one male parent, the female spent 29% less time at the den site. Decrease in time spent at the den by the female following loss of her mate suggested that loss of one parent might severely impact recruitment of Swift Foxes. Our observations indicated that intense Coyote ( Canis latrans ) depredation may severely impact pup-rearing success as well as the parental care within Swift Fox family groups.

Texas↗